Offseason rumors

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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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The team isn't good. Its a team that most likely won't make the playoffs. Does that matter? And if it doesn't... where does this go? What's the point?
You don't think this little bit at the end is.... maybe a little crazy??? What's the point? So for fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates, to you they really should just off themselves? Take a step back and take a closer look. As constructed right now, Pirates fan would kill themselves to have the Sox roster.... but that's besides the point because, you know, we're not entitled Sox fans, right? A closer look you'll see that as currently constructed, there's a lot of young players and some good young pitching. Granted, they're unlikely to make the playoffs UNLESS things go crazy lucky health wise and improvement wise (and the same doesn't happen to all the other ALE teams). That should still be fun to watch. If you really feel that the only reason to watch the team play is to make it to the playoffs every season, I don't know what to say. You've got two other teams that basically do that... one hasn't won a World Series in 14 years and the other could only win it in a joke of a season in which half the teams basically opted out. You're not trapped by geography to a team any longer.
 

Auger34

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Apr 23, 2010
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What are you talking about? I haven't even said my position on why they signed Devers, or if I agreed with Onley's position that they have to do something.

I think the truth is in the middle. I think they absolutely had zero choice in extending Devers both in terms of a baseball decision and fan perception. Fan perception does matter. Those that think it doesn't have never spent time with a professional sports franchise or with a large corporation. Fan/Customer loyalty is huge, some would says its everything.

It does drive decisions though at the end of the day it should not be the determining factor.

As it stands right now. Regardless of fan perception. In fact, throw it out the window. The team isn't good. Its a team that most likely won't make the playoffs. Does that matter? And if it doesn't... where does this go? What's the point?
Exactly. When Olney says "they have to do something", he is talking about the last sentence. In other words, this team isn't good enough to make the playoffs and FSG presumably doesn't want another year where meaningless games are played at the end of the year.

Not every media report needs to be parsed a million ways to make the person saying it look bad.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Sep 9, 2008
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What a terrible chicken and egg situation. They don't want to bring in good players because we don't have enough good players to make it worthwhile. Though hopefully we'll have more good players soon!

It's starting to feel like a crazy circle jerk, but the truth is that it's only January and it's hard to keep perspective on that.
 

BringBackMo

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As it stands right now. Regardless of fan perception. In fact, throw it out the window. The team isn't good. Its a team that most likely won't make the playoffs. Does that matter? And if it doesn't... where does this go? What's the point?
If the Red Sox were to acquire both a Montgomery/Snell-level pitcher and a RH power hitter this off-season, how will you feel about the team?

If the answer is some version of "not great" then it might be a good idea to take a break from following the team as closely for the next season or two, because I think you will be in for a fair amount of unhappiness.

If the answer is some version of "pretty good" then I really think it would be worth asking yourself whether all this despair you are feeling accurately reflects what is going on with the Red Sox.
 

TapeAndPosts

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What a terrible chicken and egg situation. They don't want to bring in good players because we don't have enough good players to make it worthwhile. Though hopefully we'll have more good players soon!
I remember when the Rangers signed both Seager and Semien, various people saying there was no point because there weren't enough other good players to make it make sense. And indeed 2022 was a pretty bad year for the Rangers, but then...

I think it's fair to think about windows and having things come together at the same time, but sometimes you have to start somewhere.
 

SouthernBoSox

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If the Red Sox were to acquire both a Montgomery/Snell-level pitcher and a RH power hitter this off-season, how will you feel about the team?

If the answer is some version of "not great" then it might be a good idea to take a break from following the team as closely for the next season or two, because I think you will be in for a fair amount of unhappiness.

If the answer is some version of "pretty good" then I really think it would be worth asking yourself whether all this despair you are feeling accurately reflects what is going on with the Red Sox.
Montgomery plus Soler alongside a good trade for Jansen would put my the camp of having an amazing offseason and I think it would shake out as a top 12 projected team in baseball while staying under the tax.
 

HfxBob

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Nov 13, 2005
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What a terrible chicken and egg situation. They don't want to bring in good players because we don't have enough good players to make it worthwhile. Though hopefully we'll have more good players soon!
Ah yes, the old self-fulfilling prophecy - there's no point trying to get better because the effort is sure to fail!
 

TomRicardo

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If the Red Sox were to acquire both a Montgomery/Snell-level pitcher and a RH power hitter this off-season, how will you feel about the team?

If the answer is some version of "not great" then it might be a good idea to take a break from following the team as closely for the next season or two, because I think you will be in for a fair amount of unhappiness.

If the answer is some version of "pretty good" then I really think it would be worth asking yourself whether all this despair you are feeling accurately reflects what is going on with the Red Sox.
Is this the Red Sox message board equivalent of FUD?

Snell and Montgomery have the same problem as Houck. They have a really have a tough time coming out six. Bello also ran out of gas at the end of last season.

So if you look at a rotation

Snell/Montgomery - 175
Bello - 175
Giolito - 180
Houck- 145
Pivetta - 160

Gives you about 835 IP and leaves with about 600 IP to cover with your bullpen. That is a lot.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I know that I'm repeating myself, but to this point in your post, I think it's equal parts writing copy and equal parts taking what the agents are feeding them. They want Boston on that wall. They need Boston on that wall. Having one less team with deep pockets in on their FAs is bad for business. That the Sox have pivoted to the extreme of not handing out insane contracts, especially for mediocre players (Crawford, Panda), means one less team to have as part of the bidding war.

We've got a wave of player signings now that may or may not get insane money and years. After that, it's last call at the bar and some folks are simply either lowering their standards or going home alone.
Or possibly Boston fans CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!! (Just because I liked your reference).

As to the bolded, I have no problem with that, I really don't. Where I really question the decision making is in not giving out middle class contracts to middle class players as well. Because they haven't done that in a long time either. To further that, if they're really in the rebuild people claim they are then why not make the moves like you're rebuilding. Why the second order, Colonel?

Like some say, there is still time, so we'll see what happens.

However, if they do choose not to make major FA moves and if they choose not to (or are unable to) make impactful trades, I seriously hope they move Jansen, Martin and Pivetta (if they can't extend him) before the bar closes so that they can get prospects for them. Then sign more "beer goggle" free agents that will take one year deals (to continue the bar analogy) in an attempt to double dip into more prospects. That's the way a rebuilding team should operate. Get as many kicks at the prospect can as possible because the reality (for pretty much every organization) is that about half of them - and probably more - will turn out to be nothing.

@TomRicardo - Monty went 6+ in more than 2/3 of his starts last year (21 of 32) and in 1/2 of them the year before that (16 of 32). Houck did it in 5 of 21 (or less than 25%), Crawford did it in 6 of 23 (a little over 25%). If people don't want to pay Montgomery what he's going to get, fine, but it shouldn't be because he's redundant or doesn't go deep into games. For comparison, Bello went 6 plus in 17 of 28 starts. I hope we sign Montgomery because I think the team absolutely needs another version of "Bello" (as in a top half of the rotation starter that can often give 6ip plus) and because I don't think they have anything all that close to it in Crawford, Houck, Whitlock or whoever.
 
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Murderer's Crow

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Jul 15, 2005
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Would the Yankees sign Montgomery and Stroman both? They seem to be leading in the Stroman race right now. Didn't Montgomery spend some off-season in Boston, or was that another guy? From what I remember, Montgomery likes the Boston area.
Word keeps getting repeated that Monty really prefers Texas and wasn't looking for a NYY return. Surprising because he left on good terms and really was shocked about getting traded. Of course, people need something to talk about so whatever is on the radio and twitter is probably all trumped by a good contract offer. That said, I think the Yankees are looking for better value for the middle of the rotation. They traded him ~18 months ago because they believed he wouldn't fit into a top 3 slot in a playoff rotation and I think that logic may still hold, so offering him a huge contract seems fishy to me from a NY perspective.
 

Archer1979

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Or possibly Boston fans CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!! (Just because I liked your reference).

As to the bolded, I have no problem with that, I really don't. Where I really question the decision making is in not giving out middle class contracts to middle class players as well. Because they haven't done that in a long time either. To further that, if they're really in the rebuild people claim they are then why not make the moves like you're rebuilding. Why the second order, Colonel?

Like everyone says, there is still time, so lets see what happens. If they do choose not to make major FA moves and if they choose not to (or are unable to) make impactful trades, I seriously hope they move Jansen, Martin and Pivetta (if they can't extend him) before the bar closes so that they can get prospects for them. Then sign more "beer goggle" free agents that will take one year deals (to continue the bar analogy) in an attempt to double dip into more prospects. That's the way a rebuilding team should operate. Get as many kicks at the prospect can as possible because the reality (for pretty much every organization) is that about half of them - and probably more - will turn out to be nothing.
Well... haven't they? Giolito isn't going to be the guy that I want on the mound to start the seventh game of the World Series but he does fall into that mid-tier player. As do Jensen and Turner. The Sox have done it in the recent past in my estimation, but the market needs a little time to shake out this off-season before we can say that Giolito is it.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Well... haven't they? Giolito isn't going to be the guy that I want on the mound to start the seventh game of the World Series but he does fall into that mid-tier player. As do Jensen and Turner. The Sox have done it in the recent past in my estimation, but the market needs a little time to shake out this off-season before we can say that Giolito is it.
I guess, for better or worse, I don't think of one year deals as mid term contracts. If that was 4/$100m a) I'd adore the deal and b) agree totally.

They seem to have become so risk adverse in terms of length of contract, that in many ways it prohibits them from a) competing for the best players but more importantly b) forces so much roster turn over that this doesn't seem like a bridge to anything, more just continually jumping from one rock to the other in the hopes that enough rocks appear to get across the river.
 
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Yo La Tengo

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Nov 21, 2005
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Montgomery plus Soler alongside a good trade for Jansen would put my the camp of having an amazing offseason and I think it would shake out as a top 12 projected team in baseball while staying under the tax.
Why would it matter in any meaningful way to stay under the CBT tax this season? The Sox can add ~$75 million to the CBT payroll this year and incur a penalty of around $12 million. And if the team added that amount of payroll this year, they would still be roughly $90 million below the "draft pick" threshold for 2025. The point of being bad last year was to reset the penalties for going over this year and beyond.

I remember when the Rangers signed both Seager and Semien, various people saying there was no point because there weren't enough other good players to make it make sense. And indeed 2022 was a pretty bad year for the Rangers, but then...

I think it's fair to think about windows and having things come together at the same time, but sometimes you have to start somewhere.
Because of the huge amount of money available in the Sox budget, I think this should be the year. The top prospects we've been obsessing over should be ready to contribute by the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. The time to force open that window is now.
 

HfxBob

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Nov 13, 2005
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Is this the Red Sox message board equivalent of FUD?

Snell and Montgomery have the same problem as Houck. They have a really have a tough time coming out six. Bello also ran out of gas at the end of last season.

So if you look at a rotation

Snell/Montgomery - 175
Bello - 175
Giolito - 180
Houck- 145
Pivetta - 160

Gives you about 835 IP and leaves with about 600 IP to cover with your bullpen. That is a lot.
Wouldn't that be a lot better than last year though?
 

SouthernBoSox

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Why would it matter in any meaningful way to stay under the CBT tax this season? The Sox can add ~$75 million to the CBT payroll this year and incur a penalty of around $12 million. And if the team added that amount of payroll this year, they would still be roughly $90 million below the "draft pick" threshold for 2025. The point of being bad last year was to reset the penalties for going over this year and beyond.



Because of the huge amount of money available in the Sox budget, I think this should be the year. The top prospects we've been obsessing over should be ready to contribute by the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. The time to force open that window is now.
Because it appears that it matters to ownership. So the only way to get both Montgomery and Soler is to trade Jansen. Of course I don't care. It's not my money. Sign everyone. But they care, so we have to be aware of that.
 

donutogre

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If the rich don’t want to live here, how the hell did we end up with so many of them?
Seriously. I moved out of Somerville about 10 years ago and have thought about coming back to the area a few times, but feel like I'm completely priced out of the market now. And that was after having owned a place there, and owning a nice enough place in a great part of Philadelphia now. Seems like Arlington is the closest I could get.

I guess there's a difference between "paying $800K-$2M for a house" and "ballplayer rich" but still.
 

BringBackMo

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Is this the Red Sox message board equivalent of FUD?

Snell and Montgomery have the same problem as Houck. They have a really have a tough time coming out six. Bello also ran out of gas at the end of last season.

So if you look at a rotation

Snell/Montgomery - 175
Bello - 175
Giolito - 180
Houck- 145
Pivetta - 160

Gives you about 835 IP and leaves with about 600 IP to cover with your bullpen. That is a lot.
Your post implies that the Sox would be putting themselves in a lot of trouble by overtaxing their bullpen if that proposed rotation were to throw that many innings next season. Here's how those individual IP projections would have ranked in MLB in 2023:

Snell/Montgomery - 175--32nd
Bello - 175--32nd
Giolito - 180--24th
Houck- 145--63rd
Pivetta - 160--46th

Not bad! Quite obviously, then, if those innings totals were to represent a problem for the Red Sox bullpen, they most certainly would represent a problem for most other bullpens in the game.

In any case, let's pretend for a moment that instead of Houck and his 145 innings, the Sox were penciling in some other starting pitcher who would give the team 175 innings instead of Houck's 145. Under this apparently much rosier scenario, the Sox bullpen is now required to pick up about 570 innings next season rather than 600, or five or so fewer innings per month. There is no material difference.

Furthermore, the good news for the Red Sox is that they have pitchers such as Crawford and Whitlock who have pitched in the rotation before and can do so in 2024 if needed.
 

BringBackMo

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Montgomery plus Soler alongside a good trade for Jansen would put my the camp of having an amazing offseason and I think it would shake out as a top 12 projected team in baseball while staying under the tax.
Well we certainly don't know if they will make those moves, but each seems entirely within the realm of possibility. And if those moves would make them a good team, and a fun one to watch, then i suggest that things may not be as dire as you may worry they are.

To say this one last time: If we get to opening day or spring training and the Sox have not improved from what they are as we have this discussion, then I will join you in being disappointed. But I just don't see any reason to believe they will be. But let's wait and see.
 

nighthob

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Seriously. I moved out of Somerville about 10 years ago and have thought about coming back to the area a few times, but feel like I'm completely priced out of the market now. And that was after having owned a place there, and owning a nice enough place in a great part of Philadelphia now. Seems like Arlington is the closest I could get.

I guess there's a difference between "paying $800K-$2M for a house" and "ballplayer rich" but still.
I mean my brother’s best friend has spent the last 20 years installing home theaters for billionaires, and it’s a full time job because there are a lot of them here. Whole lotta John Henry rich people in MA.
 

simplicio

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Why would it matter in any meaningful way to stay under the CBT tax this season? The Sox can add ~$75 million to the CBT payroll this year and incur a penalty of around $12 million. And if the team added that amount of payroll this year, they would still be roughly $90 million below the "draft pick" threshold for 2025. The point of being bad last year was to reset the penalties for going over this year and beyond.
I've always thought it makes sense to go over this year too. If they're trying to stay under, I wonder if a factor (not the only factor obviously, but a real consideration) might be that they're planning on signing someone (Soto, Burnes, Fried) through a QO next year. It's an extra $500k reduction from your IFA pool if you do that while over the CBT, which sounds like peanuts but it represents an extra 10-50 swings at finding the next Bello/Rafaela.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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McCaffery had a mailbag pop today in the Athletic. (I assume McCaffrey is considered main board worthy; apologies if others feel otherwise and mods may delete if so). A few interesting tidbits:

On a general question about the "direction" of ownership, possible selling of the team and such things:

"I’ll start with this: I do think they notice attendance numbers are slipping and they certainly noticed droves of visiting fans filling the stands as well as that late-season Yankees series where the park was hardly full. In some respects it seems like they’re white-knuckling through a self-induced tough time image-wise, waiting to get to the other side because they believe in their long-term vision, but they aren’t laying out clearly enough what that vision is or what the end date might be."

Relative to the "why fire Bloom" mantra:

"The problem is that frustration is so high right now, building up around the park won’t matter if no one is coming to games anymore. I think Henry firmly believes spending around $225 million for payroll should be enough to field a competitive team. It sounds more and more like he didn’t think Bloom made the right moves with the money he was allotted to spend. Whether that’s fair or not is another discussion. Breslow seems to be entering a similar paradox of finding the best talent for a set payroll."

Does she think spending will increase (ie the annual discussion about if and when they'll go over the Tax):
"I think it’s completely fair for fans to be angry about sky high ticket prices and billionaire owners not spending to their full means. But I’m also not sure they’ll change anytime soon."

On draft approach under Breslow:
"As it relates to the draft, I do think under Breslow there will be a heavier emphasis on drafting pitchers given his background and the farm system’s need."

Prospect acquisition:
"aggressiveness in adding pitching prospects this winter via trades. Baseball America labeled Justin Slaten as the top pitcher available in the Rule 5 Draft. When the Mets selected him ahead of the Red Sox, Breslow worked a trade with the Mets immediately after the draft to acquire Slaten. They’re clearly targeting pitchers they feel fit their system." - she mentions both Fitts and Criswell in this regard, as well.


She has some other good stuff about the general state of the team including the development around Fenway, information on the Hernandez situation and how they view the OF in general, and ideas on "timelines" for the top prospects.

https://theathletic.com/5193244/2024/01/11/red-sox-ownership-questions-mailbag/
 
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Sox Pride

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Nov 25, 2005
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The only issue I have in signing JMont to 6/150 (or whatever) is if it limits the Sox from bidding on next year's big crop of free agents. I would love to see them get Soto or Roki Sasaki or <insert elite player here>
If they have the financial muscle and budget to do both than I am all for it.

I don't believe the narrative that this management group isn't willing to spend. I just believe they don't want to spend on mediocrity and have extended contracts leading to dead money on middling players.

Someone mentioned that the Sox did it on Manny Ramirez back in the day. Sure - he was an elite middle-of-the-order back. None of the guys this summer have approached his production level.
But let's not act like JMont is Roger or Pedro. Isn't he essentially an SP2?
 

chrisfont9

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I remember when the Rangers signed both Seager and Semien, various people saying there was no point because there weren't enough other good players to make it make sense. And indeed 2022 was a pretty bad year for the Rangers, but then...

I think it's fair to think about windows and having things come together at the same time, but sometimes you have to start somewhere.
Agree, which is why I've been pro-Monty from the jump. His profile mostly says "competent eater of innings," which is a great stabilizer for a team with injury variability and a lot of youth. They will need a few years of stability in the rotation while the pieces all come together. Maybe giving Monty 30x7 is foolish, and I am far, far away from the "spend money on something cool-looking" POV, but if the price is anywhere close to reasonable, the Sox should jump. Barring injury he will either lift them up or, if the window shifts, he'll bring back something in a trade.

But if they can get some other competent innings-eater, that's fine too. We just need someone to throw the ball well, consistently. It doesn't have to be someone we expected.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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The only issue I have in signing JMont to 6/150 (or whatever) is if it limits the Sox from bidding on next year's big crop of free agents. I would love to see them get Soto or Roki Sasaki or <insert elite player here>
If they have the financial muscle and budget to do both than I am all for it.
The Sox will have plenty of money to sign whomever they want next year. They don't have a ton of long-term big-money contracts, aside from Devers. Getting Montgomery or Snell is exactly what the Sox should do this year in order to have a building block for next year.

Plus at some point you have to put a competitive roster together for this year. You can't keep kicking the can down the road "for next year".
 

johnlos

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Montgomery plus Soler alongside a good trade for Jansen would put my the camp of having an amazing offseason and I think it would shake out as a top 12 projected team in baseball while staying under the tax.
Hope so! Although I'd be fine with Stroman and Duvall with Paxton on a 1-year.
 

MikeM

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I guess there's a difference between "paying $800K-$2M for a house" and "ballplayer rich" but still.
Yes, there is indeed a difference there. Especially for ballplayers who are now subtracting a once more present and unequal opportunity chance to win here out of a lot of these this or that equations.

That there is rich people living in Boston doesn't suggest much in itself. How many player wives/families out there do you honestly believe are picking Boston at face value over living in San Diego right now?
 

thepriceisright

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Apr 8, 2018
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McCaffery had a mailbag pop today in the Athletic. A few interesting tidbits:

On a general question about the "direction" of ownership, possible selling of the team and such things:

"I’ll start with this: I do think they notice attendance numbers are slipping and they certainly noticed droves of visiting fans filling the stands as well as that late-season Yankees series where the park was hardly full. In some respects it seems like they’re white-knuckling through a self-induced tough time image-wise, waiting to get to the other side because they believe in their long-term vision, but they aren’t laying out clearly enough what that vision is or what the end date might be."

Relative to the "why fire Bloom" mantra:

"The problem is that frustration is so high right now, building up around the park won’t matter if no one is coming to games anymore. I think Henry firmly believes spending around $225 million for payroll should be enough to field a competitive team. It sounds more and more like he didn’t think Bloom made the right moves with the money he was allotted to spend. Whether that’s fair or not is another discussion. Breslow seems to be entering a similar paradox of finding the best talent for a set payroll."

Does she think spending will increase (ie the annual discussion about if and when they'll go over the Tax):
"I think it’s completely fair for fans to be angry about sky high ticket prices and billionaire owners not spending to their full means. But I’m also not sure they’ll change anytime soon."

On draft approach under Breslow:
"As it relates to the draft, I do think under Breslow there will be a heavier emphasis on drafting pitchers given his background and the farm system’s need."

Prospect acquisition:
"aggressiveness in adding pitching prospects this winter via trades. Baseball America labeled Justin Slaten as the top pitcher available in the Rule 5 Draft. When the Mets selected him ahead of the Red Sox, Breslow worked a trade with the Mets immediately after the draft to acquire Slaten. They’re clearly targeting pitchers they feel fit their system." - she mentions both Fitts and Criswell in this regard, as well.


She has some other good stuff about the general state of the team including the development around Fenway, information on the Hernandez situation and how they view the OF in general, and ideas on "timelines" for the top prospects.

https://theathletic.com/5193244/2024/01/11/red-sox-ownership-questions-mailbag/
Their luxury tax payroll right now is about $160 MM according to Spotrac. If the bolded is true, they have a ton of room to spend before reaching $225 MM. I sincerely hope they use it.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I didn't want my comments to seem like anything that McCaffrey wrote, so fwiw my take on those things (and my opinion plus $2.75 gets you a coffee at Dunks).

Point 1 - Preach McCaffrey. Tell people the truth. Yes, Theo's bridge year comments were meant with harsh remarks in the Boston media - they're the Boston media. But I really don't recall the fan disgust, distrust or flat out disinterest being nearly the same following those comments that it is now. Fans - not the media, fans - I believe respected the honesty, and still would.

Point 2 - This is totally a logical though from ownership, and one I mentioned yesterday in response to the "why fire Bloom mantra." I actually agree with Henry - if you have a $225m payroll, you should be pretty decent most years, and then be smart about it. When the team is inside the playoff bracket around 7/15 add (ie, go over the tax) when they're not, sell (and stay under). Bloom didn't do that.

Point 2a - Agree totally about Bloom's moves and decisions. I really don't think Breslow will make the same ones. (Or, at least I haven't seen any evidence of that to this point. If he goes out and signs Mike Lorenzen, Ryu and Soler to one year deals, then I'll change my perspective, but he hasn't done anything like that to this point).

Point 3 - get used to a set budget every year between $225m and $Luxury Tax Threshold (I've always assumed $LTT, but maybe it's more in the $225m range starting the year.

Point 4 - Thank you baseball Jesus. Throwing darts at the wall for pitching might work in Tampa or or other places where the parks are enormous and slanted toward pitchers, but it's a terrible strategy for the AL East in one of the most hitting friendly environments in the sport. Other teams may do it. Unless and until the Red Sox move out of the AL East or into a gigantic new stadium, in Fenway Park it's playing with fire to say the least.

Point 5 - Totally agree on the prospect aggressiveness. I'd add Grissom to that list too, except, well, he doesn't pitch. Getting rid of one year of Verdugo (for Fitts) and one year of Sale (for Grissom) were both bold moves designed to not be content with treading water and maybe being "not suck" enough to be within 3 games of WC on July 29th, but were actual bold moves designed to improve the team long term. If you're not going to sign impact free agents and aren't going to / can't trade for impact players, please, please, please sell off all the one year "decency" for prospects FIRST. Then sign other "one year less than decency" and hope you hit.

Or - put another way - there was never anything wrong with signing Duvall, Turner, etc. The issue was in not monetizing them. I don't think Breslow will make the same mistake.

@thepriceisright - Red Sox Payroll (they're generally the most reliable - I used to use Spotrac too but plenty of people on here have said RSP is more reliable and I believe them) has them closer to $201m. Which means they should have about $25m left. Which is exactly enough to sign Montgomery (or Snell, but I prefer Montgomery) to a deal with a $25m AAV, so do that instead of $8m to Lorenzen and $8m to Ryu and $9m to Soler. Actually go get someone that solves the problem and should for the next 4-5 seasons.
 
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chrisfont9

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@TomRicardo - Monty went 6+ in more than 2/3 of his starts last year (21 of 32) and in 1/2 of them the year before that (16 of 32). Houck did it in 5 of 21 (or less than 25%), Crawford did it in 6 of 23 (a little over 25%). If people don't want to pay Montgomery what he's going to get, fine, but it shouldn't be because he's redundant or doesn't go deep into games. For comparison, Bello went 6 plus in 17 of 28 starts. I hope we sign Montgomery because I think the team absolutely needs another version of "Bello" (as in a top half of the rotation starter that can often give 6ip plus) and because I don't think they have anything all that close to it in Crawford, Houck, Whitlock or whoever.
Yup, and of the 16 pitchers who had more innings than Monty (in 32 starts, which is a relatively small denominator for innings/start leaders) exactly zero are currently available, and only Nola could have theoretically been had. Or Burnes or a Seattle pitcher in a trade. But that's it.
 

dynomite

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Would be fine with this. Obviously Soler would fill the RH power need: 36 HR would have led the Red Sox last year, and his 128 OPS+ would have missed being the leader by 1 behind Casas). Only issue is his defense (he's mostly a DH these days) so if Duvall remains the fallback option, that's also okay by me. He can still play the OF (just not CF), and I don't expect him to fracture his wrist diving for a ball again this season. Not quite Soler's bat, and 3 years older, but not too far off.

Soler 2023: .250/.341/.512
Duvall 2023: .247/.303/.531

Ultimately, I think I'm going to feel okay about the offense. Sox had the 11th most runs scored and 9th highest OPS in MLB last season, and it's easy to see how they'll improve with players under contract: a healthy Story at SS and Grissom at 2B is a massive upgrade over Keekay and Arroyo's lineup spots, I'm excited about Abreu's bat, etc.

The pitching, on the other hand...
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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I know these are just projections, but I don't get going after Soler, who is likely looking for something like 3/$36-45 and absolutely cannot play defense versus resigning Duvall for less money and years, but who has proven he can play RF in Fenway.
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Rich Garces Belly

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I had posted about the Red Sox signing Michael Lorenzen earlier in this thread and was met with only pushback, so after a some research I’m going to make the case once again.

When looking at Stuff+ the league average was a 97, Lorenzen was at a 101.

When looking at first pitch strike the league average was 62.1% while Lorenzen was at 66.4%.

When looking at zone percentage the league average was 42% while Lorenzen was at 44.6%.

Bailey has been advocating for azquiring pitchers who throws strikes (particularly first pitch strikes) and stuff. Lorenzen offers that at what should be an affordable cost.
 

dynomite

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I know these are just projections, but I don't get going after Soler, who is likely looking for something like 3/$36-45 and absolutely cannot play defense versus resigning Duvall for less money and years, but who has proven he can play RF in Fenway.
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Yes as I was typing my post above yours I was having the same thoughts about Duvall vs. Soler, especially since Duvall will likely be cheaper, can still play the field, and put up his stats in 2023 despite a wrist fracture. As I said, I'd be happy to see Duvall back and keep the DH spot more of a rotating spot throughout the year.

Still, Soler's spray chart overlaid on Fenway (always a dubious metric, but still) is pretty appealing. A lot of flyouts to LF that would have been HR or wall balls:

https://x.com/ggeiss_mlb/status/1744224459735646574?s=20

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Stan Papi Was Framed

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I know these are just projections, but I don't get going after Soler, who is likely looking for something like 3/$36-45 and absolutely cannot play defense versus resigning Duvall for less money and years, but who has proven he can play RF in Fenway.
View attachment 76441

View attachment 76442
I agree with you about the caveat re: projections, but to the extent that they can be useful, worth noting that some projections show a much larger gap between Soler and Duval (e.g. Fangraphs)"

2024 FGDC PROJ 32 144 623 33 88 88 2 11.0% 25.2% .236 .278 .244 .333 .479 .346 119 -2.2 12.4 -13.6 2.0


2024 FGDC PROJ 35 120 518 25 60 70 4 6.7% 31.6% .207 .270 .217 .277 .424 .299 87 -1.2 -9.3 -4.5 0.4
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Soler is going to be 32 years old, has (removing 2020) had a 9 year career and averaged 92 games per season and is yet another abysmal fielder. What could possibly go wrong with signing that player.

He'd be yet another example of spending money just to say the team is spending money.

The only way he should be signed is with a move of Yoshida.
 

Rovin Romine

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Soler is going to be 32 years old, has (removing 2020) had a 9 year career and averaged 92 games per season and is yet another abysmal fielder. What could possibly go wrong with signing that player.

He'd be yet another example of spending money just to say the team is spending money.

The only way he should be signed is with a move of Yoshida.
Statements like these are always conditional on the actual deal. Like if Soler offered to play here for 1 year at $5M, would anyone hesitate? What if Duval wants a Turner style deal?
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Statements like these are always conditional on the actual deal. Like if Soler offered to play here for 1 year at $5M, would anyone hesitate? What if Duval wants a Turner style deal?
Yes, I would.

Operating under the assumption that Breslow’s max budget is call it $227m (CBT inflation from $225m),that would bring them up to $206m and make it basically impossible to sign Montgomery or Snell.

His presence would also make O’Neill and Refsnyder even more redundant AND force one or both of Rafaela or Abreu to AAA.

I have no desire to add any one year OF at any cost unless / until the rotation is fixed OR it’s contingent upon the trade of another OF, as it’s a direct competition for finite resources (the remaining ~ $26m).
 

brandonchristensen

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There are no sure-fire players left. Everyone has warts. So you can just hope your kids play well and develop or you sign someone knowing they’re not a star.

It sucks - But it is what it is.

I’m far less concerned with our offense than I am our defense and pitching.
 

dynomite

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Yes, I would.

Operating under the assumption that Breslow’s max budget is call it $227m (CBT inflation from $225m),that would bring them up to $206m and make it basically impossible to sign Montgomery or Snell.

His presence would also make O’Neill and Refsnyder even more redundant AND force one or both of Rafaela or Abreu to AAA.

I have no desire to add any one year OF at any cost unless / until the rotation is fixed OR it’s contingent upon the trade of another OF, as it’s a direct competition for finite resources (the remaining ~ $26m).
I can see preferring Duvall to Soler, but this seems like you would rather not sign either of them? I think this team sorely needs a RH bat with some power, whether it's Soler, Duvall, or Turner.

And Refsnyder (to my mind) is worse than redundant -- he put up an 87 OPS+ in 240 PAs last year and has bounced around the Majors as a AAAA type guy. He seems like a good guy in his interviews, but is the kind of player that I think the Red Sox should be looking to move away from.
 

nighthob

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I’m far less concerned with our offense than I am our defense and pitching.
I’m not worried about the defense. Having Story at SS cures a myriad of ills. I think Grissom is going to be an average defender at least at 2B. Last year’s MI defense was historically bad, and that made everything worse. This year we should be OK.
 

Cassvt2023

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I get the defensive liability in Soler compared to Duvall, but the Phillies have seemed to do okay w/ a few DH types the last couple years. The thing that jumps out to me about Jorge is the .OBP that he puts up, which is significantly better than Duvall. The Red Sox offense, especially in Fenway have always been at their best when they move the line and continually have guys on base, which makes the opposing pitcher throw more high leverage pitches and pitch out of the stretch more. A lineup with Casas, Soler, Yoshida, Grissom, Raffy, Abreu all being high OBP guys, in addition to Durran, Rafaela and Story wreaking some havoc when they get on base is a pretty good recipe to have a good offensive team, IMO
 

KillerBs

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Soler is a 3.5 years younger and a significantly better hitter than Duvall. If they sign Soler for 3 years I am feeling pretty good we get at least one 35-40 HR season form him and he can take a walk which certainly distinguishes him from Duvall. Credit to Duvall for having a nice year for us last year, he is a decent 4th OFer, but you do not really want him in the lineup vs. RHPers. Soler-Yoshida-Duran-Oneill-Abreu actually fit together well as a OF-DH unit, with Ceddane in AAA. With Soler slotted between Casas and Devers this lineup could be very dangerous.
 

Yo La Tengo

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I can see preferring Duvall to Soler, but this seems like you would rather not sign either of them? I think this team sorely needs a RH bat with some power, whether it's Soler, Duvall, or Turner.

And Refsnyder (to my mind) is worse than redundant -- he put up an 87 OPS+ in 240 PAs last year and has bounced around the Majors as a AAAA type guy. He seems like a good guy in his interviews, but is the kind of player that I think the Red Sox should be looking to move away from.
Refsnyder is just what is needed for a fourth outfielder since he is cheap and puts up great numbers against lefties: .308/.428/.400 against lefties last year and .359/.411/.594 the year before.

I think the need for a backup 1B and 3B and frequent DH would be a much better target for the Sox at this point (and should only be a priority after the starting pitching is settled).
 

Cassvt2023

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Soler is a 3.5 years younger and a significantly better hitter than Duvall. If they sign Soler for 3 years I am feeling pretty good we get at least one 35-40 HR season form him and he can take a walk which certainly distinguishes him from Duvall. Credit to Duvall for having a nice year for us last year, he is a decent 4th OFer, but you do not really want him in the lineup vs. RHPers. Soler-Yoshida-Duran-Oneill-Abreu actually fit together well as a OF-DH unit, with Ceddane in AAA. With Soler slotted between Casas and Devers this lineup could be very dangerous.
We said very similar things at about the same time @KillerBs! I'm not sure if you were commenting on my post or we're just on a similar belief.
 

catomatic

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Refsnyder is just what is needed for a fourth outfielder since he is cheap and puts up great numbers against lefties: .308/.428/.400 against lefties last year and .359/.411/.594 the year before.

I think the need for a backup 1B and 3B and frequent DH would be a much better target for the Sox at this point (and should only be a priority after the starting pitching is settled).
Lord help us, but it could well be that the rumored $225M ceiling means that the Saga of Bobby Dalbec has yet another plot twist to it.
 

chrisfont9

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I had posted about the Red Sox signing Michael Lorenzen earlier in this thread and was met with only pushback, so after a some research I’m going to make the case once again.

When looking at Stuff+ the league average was a 97, Lorenzen was at a 101.

When looking at first pitch strike the league average was 62.1% while Lorenzen was at 66.4%.

When looking at zone percentage the league average was 42% while Lorenzen was at 44.6%.

Bailey has been advocating for azquiring pitchers who throws strikes (particularly first pitch strikes) and stuff. Lorenzen offers that at what should be an affordable cost.
What explains his terrible FIP last year? His walks and HRs were up, Ks down... was he just in the zone with his barely above average stuff too much?
 
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