Offseason rumors
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I agree. Huck seems like a good candidate for Breslow and Bailey to help improve, as well.
He may. But it may also be that the fundamentals still apply. Stud catchers, shortstops, and center fielders who were highly rated as draft prospects, received big bonuses, are performing well in the minors, and are storming the national prospect-ranking lists seem likely to get long looks before being moved. Then again, Breslow has hinted that he’ll be open to trading position player prospects for pitching. So, to your point, time will tell.
I can see that, but if we’re talking moves for this off-season, there’s not a lot the players can do to affect their stock, in either direction. And once the season is underway and they’re playing, that performance is likely to be more influential - the only way he can sell high is if said player comes out of the gate very hot and then Breslow still thinks he’ll bust.
Just to play the game, if Breslow thinks that - even with injuries - a player in the top half of the Red Sox farm system isn't as good as their ranking indicates and cashes in on them now (and is ultimately proven to be correct in his evaluation) why wouldn't that be selling high, at least relative to what he considers intrinsic (if not market) value.
To remove Mayer from the equation because I don't think anyone is really advocating moving him short of some hypothetical Beckett/Sale/not-as-good-because-we're-not-that-lucky-but-Pedro situation, using Bleis as an example, somewhere like Fangraphs still has him rated their 27th best prospect. If another team considers him to be in that top 25 area as well, and Breslow doesn't think he will become an impact MLB player and moves him now, and ultimately ends up being correct and Bleis proves to be more a stud athlete than a stud baseball player and Breslow gets top 25 value prospect value for him and Bleis ends up not being able to perform above AA levels, wouldn't that be selling high.
*I'm not saying Breslow does, doesn't, should, or shouldn't feel that way. Just that he could in fact end up selling high if he thinks that players in the Sox organization are overrated (at present) and finds another GM willing to pay at this level. It could also obviously massively backfire.
Yes, these prospects are all assets with fluid valuations. I’d have no problem trading any one of them for a return that I feel is commensurate with their current present value. I’m sure Breslow feels the same way. There isn’t and shouldn’t be a single untouchable prospect on the farm. It would take a young impact MLB guy with multiple years of control for me to consider trading a guy like Mayer or Anthony but I’d absolutely listen.
I
I get that (it’s basic sell high), my point is just that it’s ascribing an opinion to him, rather than the whole FO/ process they have in place (which Breslow said he expected to lean on heavily). I think if we see deals for top prospects, they will be based around even value and positional scarcity; if they wind up looking clairvoyant on a player’s path up the ladder, that will be more because prospects tend to flame out…
I think Breslow will operate along those lines. He’s not going to be Dombrowski aggressive and trade the farm in an attempt to win this year. However, if the right situation emerges that requires a top prospect to be dealt, he would pull the trigger.
looks like Diamondbacks got a third baseman...
View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1727405107908575263
View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1727405107908575263
Got it. I misinterpreted your point. Mea culpa.
However, I think we have seen - at least a little - that Breslow isn't going to be beholden to the prior FO views if he straight up doesn't believe in a player (not bothering to protect Drohan whom was seen as a top 20/25ish prospect) or thinks he can get value elsewhere (I'm not sure where Urias comes in on this).
It’s certainly a point worthy of discussion: how exactly is Breslow evaluating the players he now has control of as he’s trying to improve the roster… I guess we’ll have to wait and see and base it on the moves he makes
Yeah. It's why I found the move to not protect Drohan a lot more interesting / noteworthy than simply not protecting someone might otherwise have been.
Someone like @JM3 has forgotten in the last week more about the Sox minor league system than I'll ever know, and he had Drohan as their 5th best starting prospect, and the only one inside the top 30 overall to have pitched more than 15 games at the AA level and above. This isn't at all to say he was "wrong" because, the guys at SoxProspects had him at #6 in the system (at least as of July); MLB had him at #18 and as the #3 pitching prospect in the system. Fangraphs had him at #8 (though admittedly an outdated list as they have Casas #3 and Anthony #7), and the best starting prospect in the system. He was - ostensibly at least - someone that Bloom et al weren't willing to move to improve the 2023 team at the deadline.
Breslow came in and within a couple of weeks basically said that he didn't think the player was worth protecting. I don't know if that means that a) Breslow thought he wasn't that good; b) more of the FO thought he wasn't that good than we would have otherwise believed and Breslow took that advice; or c) he doesn't think the rest of the industry thinks Drohan is good and thus can sneak him through the process.
But to me simply not protecting him when there is nothing even close to MLB ready in the Worcester or Portland rotation was a pretty big move insofar as saying he's not going to simply go by the perceived value of prospects in the system.
I guess I should be taking a victory lap as the lowest Drohan ranker lol. It's an interesting gambit. We'll see how it goes. He was definitely bad at AAA last year & great in AA.
SP came out with updated rankings today & have Drohan 15th (3rd pitcher after Perales & Wikelman). I should have new rankings later today or later this weekend if not today.
https://www.soxprospects.com/
In hindsight, moving prospects at the deadline would have been folly. Even using foresight alone, moving prospects at the deadline would have been a bad move. The 2023 team wasn't built to compete at the highest level, it was built to evaluate the system's top prospects and shoot for a Wild Card spot if all the cards fell into place. But that didn't happen due to an abundance of injuries to the pitching staff, as well as the offense being way too inconsistent to contend.
I don't think we can say this for certain. I think we can say what a lot of us said going into August - top prospects shouldn't have been moved for rentals; but it's certainly plausible to say they should have been moved for long term pieces.
We'll never know, but just as an example: ostensibly there was a deal close to being done that would have sent Turner to Miami for Edward Cabrera. I can't imagine Miami would have done this straight up, but would adding Drohan to whatever was discussed have pushed that across the finish line.
Could the Red Sox have added someone like Drohan to players like Paxton and Duval and have gotten something pretty good for the long term?
Again, it's totally unknowable. Moving top prospects for RENTALS at the deadline was pretty much always a folly, and most of the board was in agreement on that I think. But trading them for long term pieces, especially those that pitch, would have probably been a good idea (we don't know if it was available).
Looking forward to it @JM3, that's yeoman's work you're doing with those lists, and it's appreciated.
I'm also starting to think you should always be looking to add good pitching with term (like developing a qb). Hopefully Breslow is about to make this look simple (sign X and trade for Y) but needing to craft a rotation from whole cloth (well, Bello plus whole cloth) because NOW is when you want to complete is a really tough spot.
Also yes as always @JM3, your efforts are much appreciated.
I view this as a separate subject entirely. The issue of trading prospects for long-term pieces is entirely different and can be done at any time in the trading season.
Thx guys. Here's the updated list. It's only a Top 242 list at the moment, but hopefully some more fun movement soon.
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/top-250-red-sox-prospects-list-prospect-discussion-thread.40216/page-2#post-5851290
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/analysis-what-will-it-take-to-sign-shohei-ohtani-and-will-the-mariners-do-it/
Interesting take on the Ohtani negotiations from the Mariners' top beat writer. Specific to Seattle, he opines that they aren't likely to get involved based on the past behavior of the ownership group, but you never know. However, what was fascinating was the lengths to which Ohtani's team are going to protect his privacy. Not only is anything you read likely not true, if it were true it would cease to be shortly thereafter because Ohtani's folks are going to hold any leaks against a team in negotiations. So if the Sox aren't saying anything and the press isn't going beyond pure speculation, it's just as much a sign that they *are* involved than a sign that they aren't.
Interesting take on the Ohtani negotiations from the Mariners' top beat writer. Specific to Seattle, he opines that they aren't likely to get involved based on the past behavior of the ownership group, but you never know. However, what was fascinating was the lengths to which Ohtani's team are going to protect his privacy. Not only is anything you read likely not true, if it were true it would cease to be shortly thereafter because Ohtani's folks are going to hold any leaks against a team in negotiations. So if the Sox aren't saying anything and the press isn't going beyond pure speculation, it's just as much a sign that they *are* involved than a sign that they aren't.
So, we will just get an announcement after it’s all done! Shocking. More athletes should do this, and maybe hold their agents to the same standard?
As a member of the media* I’d like to report that I just got a phone call from Brian Cashman that he loved meeting Ohtani and is looking forward to extending an offer.
*yes I realize I’m not a member of the media, I’m your run-of-the-mill piece-of-shit
*yes I realize I’m not a member of the media, I’m your run-of-the-mill piece-of-shit
He pitched (pretty well) as a reliever for Chunichi, and then apparently went AWOL with an eye to signing stateside. Eventually Chunichi released him. So I think we could probably just sign him.
Yes. I made this post about him in the relief pitcher thread a few weeks ago:
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/what-does-red-sox-relief-pitching-look-like-in-2024.40161/page-2#post-5819218
Some people view him as a potential starter, though.
Some more Yariel stuff:
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1728575437444702520
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1728588294425047212
View: https://twitter.com/ggeiss24/status/1728587775773929514
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1728575437444702520
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1728588294425047212
View: https://twitter.com/ggeiss24/status/1728587775773929514
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/yariel-rodriguez-hosts-workout-for-red-sox-padres.html
He only figured out where the strike zone is after he was moved to the bullpen. Counting on him as a starter would seem like a poor bet.
By this do you mean that he's actually figured it out (which means he can now throw strikes consistently after - for most of his career - not being able to), or that he will only throw strikes if he's a reliever?
I think he means that when he was converted to a reliever his walk numbers went from bad to not that good.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rodrig000yar
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rodrig000yar
Could be an indicator that he can rely on fewer pitches (that he has better control over) as a RP than the broader mix of pitches he needs to be successful as a starter.
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If he's throwing a pitch he doesn't control well often enough for it to make a noticeable difference in some of his stats (like walk rate), that's suggestive that his pitch selection was way off in the first place. Conventional wisdom may be that you need a broader mix to be a starter, but if a guy is more effective/efficient with just two or three pitches than he is with a four or five+ pitch mix, he probably should be limiting his arsenal accordingly regardless of his role. Besides, that conventional wisdom may be outdated these days since the need for a broader mix is rooted in trying to get through a lineup multiple times, and starters aren't asked to do that as much anymore.
As far as Rodriguez is concerned, I'm more worried about his year off than whether he'd be more effective as a starter or reliever.
Probably not a rumor, but Mark Feinsand suggests the Red Sox as a dark horse candidate to sign Ohtani.
https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-free-agency-questions-answered-by-experts
Both Feinsand & Morosi think the Dodgers are the most likely landing spot, both think there's no way he'll sign a short term deal, & both think he'll sign in December.
https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-free-agency-questions-answered-by-experts
It comes from Heyman, but it's out there that JBJ!!! is expected to retire
https://nesn.com/2023/11/ex-red-sox-outfielder-world-series-champ-expected-to-retire/
https://nesn.com/2023/11/ex-red-sox-outfielder-world-series-champ-expected-to-retire/
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I can’t remember exactly what year but there was some debate on whether to trade JBJ or Betts for one of the Mets young pitchers- DeGroem, etc… and honestly I recall half the board here thinking JBJ had the brighter future. His first run with the Sox was a defensive highlight reel- just a brilliant player out there. Could tell where to move even before the ball left the bat supposedly. Just that offensive inconsistency was maddening, but he turned it on at just the right time in the ‘18 playoffs.
JBJ was the source of dozens of pokes I was able to throw towards my Yankee fan friend.
After a ball which was seemingly in the gap turned into an out, I would send him three simple back to back texts....
"J"
"B"
"J"
He grumbled and grimaced everytime.
After a ball which was seemingly in the gap turned into an out, I would send him three simple back to back texts....
"J"
"B"
"J"
He grumbled and grimaced everytime.
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Reports are Sonny Gray will be signing with the Cardinals today.
Edit: it's going to be 3 years 75 million from reports.
I dont know how to share the tweets.
Edit: it's going to be 3 years 75 million from reports.
I dont know how to share the tweets.
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Yeah I'm glad he's off the market. Of all the 'elite' options he scared me the most.
Rob Bradford proposed the following fake trade for Cease:
View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1729126545866825747
& noted the White Sox ask for Cease at the deadline was a package including Bello.
View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1729126545866825747
Cease was down last year, both his bottom line and peripherals, and has only two years before FA. Even in 2022, his one great season, he led the league in walks. I'm not sure it takes a ton more than that.
BTV says...
Duran: 30
Yorke 17.4
Perales: 4.8
Cease 40.4
I'm so glad he had his offensive moment in the sun vs Houston and again in the WS. I also loved all those balls in the gap where he'd just be standing there waiting for them somehow. And most of all, I will never, ever forget him throwing the ball over the CF wall from home plate during batting practice.
Seems like a good person too. We were lucky to have him on the Sox.
Yeah...'22 was an amazing year, but a lot of scary stuff when comparing '23 to it. He lost over 1 mph on basically all his pitches. Despite throwing his slider slower, it lost significant amounts of horizontal & vertical movement, & he also lost movement on his slower curveball.
He's also an extreme fly ball pitcher (20th percentile groundballs) who walks a lot of people (25th percentile) & allowed a lot of hard hit balls last year (23rd percentile), all of which can be rough at Fenway. The trend actually started in the 2nd half of '22 when he dropped from a 2.92 xFIP in the 1st half to 4.27 in the 2nd half & his k/9 lowered from 12.9 to 8.7.
He was also straight up awful after the 1st time through the order last year:
1st time: 2.58 ERA
2nd time: 5.74 ERA
3rd time: 6.25 ERA
This is a huge departure from '22:
1st time: 2.28 ERA
2nd time: 1.44 ERA
3rd time: 3.58 ERA
This is not a big surprise as his secondary pitches took a large hit & with a slower fastball & without the elite slider that made him so lights out in '22, it's going to get a lot rougher a lot quicker. So the question is...is there a reason his pitches weren't nearly as good in '23 that is fixable & will make his '24 stuff more like his '22 stuff, or is 2 years of Cease not that exciting of an acquisition?
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