What actually is a realistic deal and an overpay for Imanaga? Is Senga comparable at 5/75 or did Yam's contract just push it up to over 100?
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If Montgomery is no longer in play and Snell/Giolito look remote, can we please consider Frankie Montas on the Paxton 2 yr make-good recovery deal? Montas had shoulder issues but no rotator cuff problem, and was throwing 95+ in his late season return in 23. Was very recently an excellent, excellent hard throwing pitcher and of course would be coming home to the org.
The problem we've had two years running is not getting enough innings out of our starters. Montas may have recovered nicely (though "throwing 95+ in his late season return" is kinda glossing over the fact that he only threw 4 innings this year between rehab and majors), but is he realistically likely to give us more than 120 IP? Maybe he can do more in 2025, but I have to think he's more valuable to another team in the mean time.
Fwiw, our starters may have pitched more innings per start than league average. Disclaimer: I was too lazy to check for all starters, but for all starters who made at least 10 starts, they averaged 5.86 innings per start (137 starts, like 804 innings). According to This link average starts were 5.1 innings. Is this dragged down by openers, maybe? Would the other guys on the Sox who didn't make 10 starts drag down our innings/start? Probably? But, pending someone posting better data, I'm thinking we actually got at least league average innings out of our starters.
Not to sour those visions of sugar plums dancing in your head, but the Red Sox’ average of 4.8 IP per start was tied for fourth-worst in MLB, better than only the A’s, Giants, and Rockies (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-starter-pitching.shtml).
Is it really a reach to think they cannot get up to league average if Houch can avoid getting hit in the face and just a little injury luck?
5.1 innings really shows how hard it is to find quality starters.
I completely agree that this has been the problem and I suppose am thinking that the price of milk in the trading market has gone up. This could at least be a Bloom-like move to accumulate some potential upside talent on shortish terms while waiting for real-deal SP1/SP2 types to become available at a price deemed fair by ownership.
Yeah, I didn't notice that some of these guys also pitched in relief. Thanks for pointing to the "team pitching stats" page on bref, I didn't realize that existed. There's some fantastic stats there.
Enough innings by starters? For one thing, there are now 32 MLB teams when not that long ago there were just 16 and those starters didn't try to throw 100-mph. Batters didn't have the tools available to analyze pitchers: if you took today's batters back to the earlier days, league batting production would be a lot higher. There have been a number of changes over the years that have changing the game that most people haven't seen. Do you think Ty Cobb would have a lifetime batting average of .366 in today's game?
I’m not sure what we are arguing about. My point was that Teoscar Hernandez fills a role that at this point cannot be filled within the system. The top dogs are up the middle players who hit left handed.
I'd also love to know the definition of "not that long ago" that results in the MLB only having 16 teams unless we're using the downfall of the Roman empire as the stake of what is a long time..
MLB has had at least 24 teams for over 50 years. Between the US population growing about 60-70% in that timeframe, increased racial diversity just in the domestic players and the development of a number of other countries with significant baseball populations, the growth in teams over the past 50-60 years isnt a good explanation for the difficulty in finding starters.
These thoughts make me wonder if Breslow would be better served at this point trying to really bolster the bullpen.
I'm sorry; I'm old and I watched baseball for 10 years before it expanded to more than 16 teams: 1961--AL to 10, 1962--NL to 10, 1969--AL/NL to 12, 1977--AL to 14, 1993--NL to 14, 1998--AL/NL to 15.
Sure, the population of this country increased but at the same time the percentage of boys playing baseball began tapering off and the influx of players from other countries took time to increase (originally inspired by the chance to spend less in signing bonuses but hampered because they didn't play the same level of players...something that MLB owners began to work on).
With the top free agent pitchers not feeling worth it (I'm out on a 7-year deal for either Montgomery or Snell and have no interest in Imanaga), I'm increasingly doubtful that the Sox are going to end up with a top of the rotation starter this offseason. If instead, the best they can do is signing someone like Marcus Stroman and/or James Paxton, it'll be disappointing but understandable. Just because the team needs a huge upgrade in the rotation doesn't mean they can acquire one, especially in an offseason where every major market is looking for the same.
That said, the one thing the team should be able do is arguably just as important: fix their single biggest positional problem by upgrading 2b.
The 23' Sox were the second worst defensive team of the Statcast era and their single worst defensive position was 2b. And they currently have a total butcher (Valdez) in line to take the lion share of the ABs at the position. The team needs to trade for someone like Brandon Drury, who is not only plus defensively, but also capable of replacing Turner's RH bat in the lineup (he actually had a slightly higher OPS last seasib). As unexciting as it seems, that move -for this team- would be huge.
That said, the one thing the team should be able do is arguably just as important: fix their single biggest positional problem by upgrading 2b.
The 23' Sox were the second worst defensive team of the Statcast era and their single worst defensive position was 2b. And they currently have a total butcher (Valdez) in line to take the lion share of the ABs at the position. The team needs to trade for someone like Brandon Drury, who is not only plus defensively, but also capable of replacing Turner's RH bat in the lineup (he actually had a slightly higher OPS last seasib). As unexciting as it seems, that move -for this team- would be huge.
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I coached AAU baseball for 20 years. The story is ever decreasing numbers of players, fewer African Americans playing and more Hispanics playing. The sport is hard and being made harder by pitching coaches at the 8-9 year old level who throw much harder than when I was a kid. As a result, more kids strike out and lose interest and go play Lacrosse or Soccer or some other sport where they don't stand around waiting for something to happen and don't get humiliated striking out.
Youth baseball is an enormous problem for the future of the sport. Most people I know who are fans at least played Little League. Everyone I knew at least played T-ball. This generation has a lot lower percentage of kids playing baseball than was true in my generation.
The human arm was not meant to throw as hard as kids are throwing when they are young and it was not meant to throw as hard as it is in the majors. As a result, I think getting reliable starting pitching will get harder and harder, and the price of reliable pitching will go up relative to the other positions.
I don't get what you gain by bringing Paxton back. The Red Sox have at least two back-end starters (Crawford/Pivetta).
Paxton has the ability to be more than a back-end starter. As with most pitchers it comes down to health. He was very good in the first half. Obviously he ran out of steam in the 2H but that was to be expected after such a long layoff.
He’s not going to put them over the top in 2024 but at the right price would be an option. Also might be able to flip at the deadline if things go south.
View: https://twitter.com/chrishenrique/status/1739730349867823266?s=46
Fascinating. I wonder what a Chris Martin could get you???
Fascinating. I wonder what a Chris Martin could get you???
I think the entirety of the focus should be on acquiring two pitchers who are good bets to be better than Crawford and the current version of Sale. I'm kinda done with throwing guys at the wall there.
That should be the plan but who isn’t looking for guys better than Crawford and Sale. I’d settle for 1 better than Bello.
Jansen trade - yes please. I think we could find a guy in our current bullpen that could handle the duties. Now, who is it the market and what can we get?
I agree if the return is a decent prospect or a 2b upgrade, even if we have to eat some of the 16m left on his deal. I believe Houck and Whitlock both have arsenal and mentality to close.
Yep - agree... I would like to see what Whitlock could do in a closer role. A 2b updgrade seems reasonable for Jansen. I also like the idea of stockpiling good assets for a trade on the SP front.
How about Kenley for Michael Busch (55-grade “2b” on BA, crushing minors for years). Or are the Dodgers not that dumb?
Whitlock's inability to pitch multiple days in a row would seem to rule him out as a closer.
Michael Busch is supposed to be a horrendous defender, which is part of the reason he moved through the minors so slowly (he's now 26 years old with barely any major league experience). Wouldn't really be a good fit for Boston, in fact we sort of already have our own version of Busch in Enmanuel Valdez. Maybe Busch's bat is better, but I'm skeptical given how old he is, and he basically had to repeat a year at AAA before he started hitting. And that was in the very hitter friendly PCL...
Based on past use, but what about going forward? In 2021, when he was working in the bullpen, he worked 12 times on one day of rest (and once back to back). Jansen this year had 9 b2b days and 8 more with one day of rest. With age maybe Whitlock can be ready to start doing this more? Not too many guys who end up as closers actually start their careers closing.
Furthermore, 33 of his 46 appearances in 2021 were more than an inning... 21 of those appearances were 2 innings or more. He was very good working out of the bullpen exclusively. Would love to see him compete for that role.
Seems like he's never spent an offseason preparing for it. I wouldn't know what a potential closer has to do differently, but if they could make up their minds about his role, that would surely help.
Busch is a pitcher- who got shelled in LA this year- you must be thinking of someone else?
Yeah I agree 100% - It would be interesting to see what he could do given time to prepare.
I'd love to see if Whitlock can go back to back a couple of times a week if needed.
I like the idea, but I wouldn't want to trade Jansen until we had some certainty about Whitlock or Houck in the closer role (for reasons of health as well as ability to adjust to closing).
Maybe Jansen is better suited for a trade deadline-deal, assuming that one of the two aforementioned steps up in the first half of the season.
Maybe Jansen is better suited for a trade deadline-deal, assuming that one of the two aforementioned steps up in the first half of the season.
The need at 2B is thought to be short term as a bridge to Mayer/Yorke. There's actually a little bit of a MI log jam in the minors, unless Busch is better than what we have in house we might be better served looking to fill a bigger need.
Your not wrong, but unless there is a deal involving a player that makes really good sense for the Sox, I'd much rather have a better idea about Whitlock being able to go consecutive days twice a week if needed before getting rid of our closer.
Michael Busch is a 1B-3B who played 119 games at 2B in AA/AAA in '22. I'm not seeing any pitcher named Busch on the Dodgers 40 man.
He's had exactly one back to back appearance in each of the three seasons he's been here. We've heard that he doesn't recover well, and they've very clearly worked to keep him from doing that, so I think it's safe to assume they have a reason for handling him that way on a consistent basis? As you mentioned, Jansen had 9, and Schreiber had 13, Martin 6, Bernardino 8, etc. Whitlock's usage seems pretty intentional.
He totally could, but only on the 2-3 days a week they’ve been inclined to use him. He’s been kept in a velvet-lined jewel box and brought out on rare occasions.
Maybe he and Whitlock, also of chronically limited availability, could share the duties.
Right but my question is whether that is just a permanent condition or one that arose out of his previous preparation, being built up to start. Or they just don't think his arm can ever handle that sort of work? Not sure they will ever explain these sorts of things, so we will be left to infer from how they use him.
If you believe in selling high, Chris Martin is a serious trade candidate. If Gammons is cryptically talking about a wait for 2025, then both Martin and Jansen should be moved.
Whitlock was excellent in a bullpen role in his first season here, then they tried to stretch him out as a starter the following two years and that's when the injuries started to occur. If you give him a defined role, i think he can succeed. His numbers over his 3 seasons with the Sox are:
223 IP
235 K
45 BB
More than a K/inning and doesn't really walk guys is a good place to start when looking at potential closers if you want to use Jansen as a trade chip.
223 IP
235 K
45 BB
More than a K/inning and doesn't really walk guys is a good place to start when looking at potential closers if you want to use Jansen as a trade chip.
I hope they’re not just exploring it, but make many moves in this regard. Personally, Jansen is the one I want to keep the most because I believe in paying for a closer and then using the recent starting rotation approach (duct tape and dumpster diving; using prospects that don’t pan out as starters) in other parts of the bullpen.
If they can’t get “Dickie Fitts” type pieces for Martin, Winckowski, Schrieber, Whitlock, Bernardino then fine, move Jansen for it. But overall I strongly agree with the idea of trying to move guys that are certain bull pen pieces for prospects that might be starters.
Especially if there is interest in the non-closer pieces.
It would be another relic of the Bloom decision making process. Sign #4 starters and guys that can hit 6th/7th.
The injuries started to occur before he ever put on a Red Sox uniform. The only reason he ended up here is because he was injured as a Yankee minor leaguer.
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