What is happening right now is Breslow is figuring out how to parlay Kenley Janson, Jarren Duran and $30 million or so in salary room for next year into Jesus Luzardo without giving up Mayer, Teel or Anthony.
Offseason rumors
- Thread starter opes
- Start date
- Status
I agree. I mean in an ideal world this is the old Sox and they'd be willing to go over the threshold and be in the top three in player salaries, and so would keep both Jansen and Martin. If it's the new parsimonious Sox (or, let's just say thrifty), Jansen has the bigger salary and Martin is, at present at least, the better pitcher. So, trade Jansen to free up $$, so maybe
And I will not be surprised if he also signs an additional FA pitcher (yes Montgomery/Snell) and/or Teoscar Hernandez. I mean, getting Luzardo, Snell, Hernandez maybe is me being a ten-year-old fantasizing. But I don't think it's entirely out of the question. My guess is that 2 of those 3 things happens (along with the trade of Jansen). If all 3, then I'd dare say the Sox would be contenders this year - not next or the year after.
we can hope
This would be fun, but Miami doesn't even really have $30M in contracts that they could move to us, and I don't think Jansen/Duran comes remotely close to netting Luzardo.
As it turns out, Avisail Garcia is owned almost exactly $30 million over the next two seasons...
Seattle’s Jerry D era in a nutshell.
For the record, I maintain that the Red Sox and Mariners aren’t the logical trade fit that everyone here thinks. Unfortunately, the current Red Sox who’d be the most logical fits for the current Seattle roster are … Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom, and I don’t think Brez got those two guys just to flip them.
On the other hand, see above. Maybe Valdez and Abreu for Miller is in play!
Only a Canadian MLB free agent can hang out in the suite with a team in need of his services and stay completely focused on watching hockey.
Wow! And what a horrendous expense of $29m that will be! He would be a DFA in waiting I think. I'd say don't overpay in prospects, get Luzardo AND some of Garcia's salary back (e.g. $5m/year?) and it's a win.
Here's a local roundup of Castillo thoughts. It's hardly a rumor at this point but at least a beat writer is throwing the spaghetti at the wall.
https://sodomojo.com/posts/could-the-mariners-trade-luis-castillo-01hjpe8m3azb
I think the idea is that a bunch of teams would be involved. Just because it’s a slow day at the office, I worked up a semi plausible scenario that matches PrometheusWakefield’s parameters:
Kenley and $10m go to KC (they’re going for it in a weak AL Central!) for blocked SS prospect Nick Loftin and a Comp Balance A pick. Then, you get involved in a Mariners–Guardians swap of Miles Straw for Taylor Trammell, contributing money ($6m) and Grant Gambrell for a pitching prospect (Justin Campbell; a giant first-round SP/DH who hasn’t debuted yet) and another comp pick from Cleveland. Then, you deal Duran with Loftin, Campbell and both Comp picks for Luzardo and Bell. BTV’s values suggest that’s close, and it’s a solid haul for Miami: a prearb OF, a prearb IF, an interesting prospect pitcher and two picks, plus shedding Bell’s contract.
Bell becomes our DH, where he’s a mediocre value at 1/$16.5, but a switch hitter with a great walk rate and contact stats that suggest he was unlucky last year.
Obviously a lot has to fall into place LOL. But it’s about the right amount of value, so if you can find teams who want the moving parts, it can work.
I personally don't mind short term expenses to acquire players. It's not like we can go out and spend the entire budget in one year, particularly in a kind of crappy FA year, with a few exceptions of course. When his money comes off of the books will be when they need to start evaluating which long term contracts to give out.
Yeah, if having to take Garcia's contract is the price for getting someone like Luzardo without giving up the likes of Mayer, Teel, or Anthony, sign me up. Even if they just DFA Garcia and eat the money, it's arguably worthwhile.
That said, I don't think the Marlins are that desperate to get out from under Garcia's deal that they'd give up Luzardo (or any of their good players, frankly). They're a low budget team but the only harm Garcia is doing is to ownership's pockets. Every team gets $100M a year from national TV contracts, and the Marlins payroll currently sits around $92M (real dollars, not CBA accounting). They're not exactly in the red.
Garcia wouldn't be a terrible RHH bat to add to the outfield especially if you were shipping Duran out. His pay is not terrible for the production. His hamstring may never be right again though.
Last edited:
Agree strongly with this.
If Breslow can acquire Luzardo without giving up one of Bello, Casas (obviously) or Anthony, Teel, Grissom or Mayer then I don't think any suggestion of a trade can ever be criticized again because that would be so monumentally stupid for the Marlins that it really shouldn't be entertained (and yes I personally have Grissom ahead of Mayer).
The closest comp I can think of to any idea of dealing Luzardo is Berrios back in 2021, and he only had 1.5 years of control at that point (Luzardo has 3), and that cost a prospect that was pretty close to where Mayer is now (Austin Martin) and a top 100ish pitching prospect in Simeon Woods Richardson. The Sox don't have any starting pitching prospect close to Richardson's value at the time (and it's not like you could include Houck because there is only one year difference of control between Houck and Luzardo, so that doesn't do it for Miami).
The Sox would have to pretty massively overpay in hitting (read one of Anthony, Mayer or Teel along with a bunch of other young players / prospects) and probably take back Garcia in order to get it done.
Agree with all of this.
Speaking of aces available in a trade, has there been any other smoke regarding Corbin Burnes?
Last I saw on MLBTR was that he's "unlikely to sign an extension if traded" which he did seem to make fairly clear:
Well that's pretty convincing. Not that it's out of the question, it's just that it would have to come from an unreasonable desire to shed Garcia's salary rather than anything apparent or sensible. I do see that they don't own their stadium, so maybe their finances are trickier than they appear?
This is the slowest burning hot stove I can recall - so many conversations on so little actual fact. I have to believe something breaks this week.
Is that the problem? I was looking for some clue as to why he's been a negative WAR player two years running. His splits aren't extreme (and for now have disappeared) but it does look from the numbers like he used to hit lefties tolerably well.
I think it's more that Jansen is worth something and getting up there, and with the number of young hard-throwing bullpen arms we've acquired it's better to get something for him.
It’s very possible that the “we need to shed payroll first” line that Cotillo reported is just a diplomatic way for front offices to say they need to clear a roster spot or finalize a trade, either for 40-man reasons or because they’re trading for the obvious replacement of someone already on the team.
Agree, Garcia’s money comes off the books before our next tax reset year (2026). The Marlins are a good fit for a deal for one of our outfielders, because they’d seem to need to plug Bryan De La Cruz in at DH.
Garcia is likely useless but he can still play right field and there’s a nonzero chance he’d have some value to us.
I know Luzardo is soaking up the headlines but my target there is still Trevor Rogers. The command is better, he gets more whiffs in the zone, more groundballs, and he generally stays effective deeper in games. Luzardo is more of a star but I’m wary that that’s part of what you’re paying for.
Yea he rushed back out and reaggravated his left hamstring. He also hurt his wrist and rushed back.
Yeah, I mean there really is no counter to “I know it’d be moronic, but the Marlins (As, Rockies, Angels, Royals, Tigers and White Sox) make idiotic moves all the time.” Because they do. Consistently. In fact, as I type this the As are probably trading their one good player (do they have one?) to the Braves for a bunch of flotsam and jetsam.
But in an open bidding situation (which at least this time the Marlins and ChiSox have been smart enough to basically announce) and with teams like Boston, Baltimore, ChiC and possibly NYY all needing rotation help, I cannot see any way even they don’t at minimum get a top 20ish prospect (or two top 50ish if one of them pitches).
This is interesting, I'm trying to think of additional comparisons. To the point @Big Papi's Mango Salsa makes above, maybe these are more indictments of the Pirates, but:
What about Gerrit Cole to the Astros in January 2018? He had 2 years of control left and the Astros didn't have to give up their top prospects (Kyle Tucker, Yordan, most importantly).
What would be the current Sox equivalent of this package? Rafaela or Yorke, another prospect, Houck, and another piece?
The Joe Musgrove trade (who also had 2 years of control left) is harder to compare given that it was a 3-team trade, but ultimately San Diego didn't have to give up their top prospects there either:
Last edited:
I was trying to think of at least “post pandemic” in terms of recent trades.
Seattle acquired Castillo for “ish” Mayer and Yorke type pieces (Marte, Arroyo and some other irrelevant stuff”, but Castillo was 29 at the time with 1.5 years left.
It‘s damn near impossible to think of trades where a young, controllable, good (or better) starting pitcher has been moved without a top 100 starting pitching prospect going back.
Castillo is the only one I can think of off the top of my head, though I’m sure I’m missing someone. Generally it’s older SPs where it can be arranged (Scherzer, Verlander, Sale, Darvish).
I think @chawson (I think) is right when he says if Breslow can acquire someone, it will be someone less established but with longer control, assuming Anthony, Teel and Mayer aren’t involved.
Singer was a good call. Maybe someone like Detmers (LAA are morons). Chase Silseth is someone I’d think Breslow and Bailey would like. I’d suggest Andrew Abbott but the Sox and Cincy are basically carbon copies of each other in terms of farm systems (all hitting, no pitching). Logan T Allen from Cleveland is my personal “favorite”:in this kind of pure hypothetical.
I could talk about how teams aren't as dumb as this anymore, but in fairness to the Pirates, Cole had just delivered two consecutive seasons of league-average-ish results (4.08 FIP in his last year there) so he's not a great comp for a potential star unless that comp has also lost some of their sparkle. I don't know if this is another Houston spin rate thing, but Cole averaged 8.1 k/9 in Pittsburgh thru age 26, then went to Houston and the numbers immediately jumped to 12.4 and 13.8.
Too bad this beat writer isn't the GM of Seattle. He's ecstatic about the prospect of getting Kepler (FA 24') and Polanco (FA 25') for Castillo. Wouldn't Seattle rather have Duran and Grissom? Too bad the actual price is likely to be far higher.
This was just before the pandemic (2019 trade deadline) but the bolded reminded me of the Zac Gallen for Jazz Chisholm swap. Those prospect for prospect deals are extremely rare because teams tend to value their own guys but maybe with the front office turnover it's a bit more likely. Going into 2019, Chisholm was a top 100 prospect for every major publication (BA #59, MLB #60, BP #69). Interestingly, Zac Gallen wasn't ranked in any top 100 lists entering 2019 but he completely dominated AAA from the jump that year before getting promoted.
Anyways, maybe there's something to do along those lines. Cade Horton (CHC) and Kyle Harrison (SFG) are ranked similarly to the Mayer/Anthony/Teel trio depending on the publication and obviously Breslow and Bailey are familiar with them.
I'm confused. Isn't Seattle one of the few teams that has an abundance of starting pitching? Wouldn't they be more in the market for hitting?
I don’t see how the Dodgers value Teoscar Hernández as a full-time regular when they’ve already got an outfield of Taylor, Outman, Heyward and Margot, post-prospect LF/DH Miguel Vargas kicking around, and top prospect Andy Pages due up this year. DH is obviously blocked.
They could trade Taylor, but Taylor seems really valuable to them as a super sub when he’s not in left. Seems like they need another Peralta-type like Eddie Rosario or Austin Meadows, not Teoscar.
An interesting possible subtext to all this is that Mookie may really be done as an outfielder at age 31. Stepping in at 2B as he did is valuable on its own, but he did have a minus-3 fielding run value last year across 2B/RF and some SS. Curious to see how it goes.
Feinsand’s latest on the markets of Snell, Montgomery and Imanaga.
He says the Sox are among a set of teams in on two of them.
He says Imanaga “has the most competitive market” and signs first because of the 1/11 deadline, and is expected to land something “closer to the 5/$75 million deal Kodai Senga signed with the Mets.” Also, says that Montgomery is believed to be seeking less money than Snell and predicts he comes off the board second.
I don't get that. If the idea is to get Cease so they can deal from their prospect strength to get a bat… why not just keep the incredible young guns of Kirby / Gilbert / Woo / Miller together and sign, say, Matt Chapman and Adam Duvall?
Seattle fans have been pissed at ownership for not spending and unwilling to spend more (Much like in Boston). They dealt players to the braves just to unload salary already. I don't think they will be in on any FA that cost them significant money at this point.
I wonder if this means the Teoscar market isn't as big as he had hoped. If the Dodgers don't make sense there are only a couple of teams in the bidding - and maybe they get him for 3/45 instead of the 4/80 I saw.
This is one I thought of too. It really is amazing how infrequently "need for need" trades happen in baseball, relatively speaking, at least with somewhat advanced prospects.
FWIW, I think something like this COULD work with Mayer (or Anthony or Teel of course), but with Story and Grissom, as well as the depth at MI in the system, I think Mayer makes the most sense as a headline piece. POSSIBLY Duran if another team really values him, but I think we'd all agree Mayer is more valuable.
Mayer for Kyle Harrison is a pretty good fit and comp. I wanted to find a way for that to be Bibee from Cleveland, but they already have Rocchio and Gimenez at SS and 2b, respectively. Maybe they consider it with Anthony or Teel, but I'm not certain the Sox should. Mayer makes more sense to deal (not because I dislike him or any such stuff) but because you have Story at SS, Grissom at 2b and a ton of MI prospects - none of whom would be reasonable to assume could land players like Bibee.
I do like the Harrison idea (really good call there). Luciano just came up, but he's projected to have to move off SS. He's fine there for now, but Mayer projects as a better defender, and thus they move Luciano to SS in 2026 or whenever Mayer is available. The Sox would probably need to add something that is closer to the majors because SF is apparently looking for offense. They have the always injured Mike Haniger and ostensibly that is it around the corners (assuming Matos is CF for them). I could see Abreu having appeal to them.
BTV "accepts" the deal, but has Mayer and Abreu for Harrison as a major overpay by the Sox (similar to them having Grissom for Sale being a major overpay for the Braves) but I think the Sox (and any team) will have to overpay in terms of hitting prospects to get controllable pitching. Harrison is as good a call as any...
They were forced to buy their RSN so it's kind of a complicated financial mess. Not sure what the owners would have been willing to do otherwise. Their track record is similar, they spent for Julio and Castillo but otherwise not much.
Is it possible Scott Boras and his delaying tactics are just him trying to create the illusion of brilliance without any actual brilliant jedi-mind-tricking strategy? I have to guess that the net result so far is teams being willing to live without his clients at the price he's asking for.
SF signed Korean CF Jung-Hoo Lee to a sizable contract so he’s their CF. They have Conforto and Baby Yaz in the corners with Haniger and his contract as the 4th OF. Plus Austin Slater. I imagine Luis Matos is going to start in AAA to focus on finding more power with his elite contact rates. Also,Matos’ D left something to be desired. They also brought up Meckler and have failed prospect Heliot Ramos (still 24yo) parked in AAA.
Wilyer Abreu patrolling that massive OF is about the last thing the Giants would want.
I think the Dodgers ”interest” is 100% agent fake news to drive up the price.
According to my Dodgers fan friends, Vargas & Michael Busch (#4 Dodgers prospect and a pretty sweet bat) have been working on their LF skills during the off-season. Between those two and CTaylor (Heyward/Margot platoon in RF), going after Teoscar and his questionable defense makes ZERO sense.
Fair, I thought Conforto was a one year deal but he may have re-signed.
Point being, I bet the Sox could find something helpful to them added with Mayer, especially since Mayer for Harrison (straight up) is seen as an overpay by the Sox (again, understanding that BTV isn't perfect but it's the best we have to go with).
Andy Martino reports Snell may be leaning to the MFY. I know WAR is not predictive, but this would make the AL projected War as follows
NYY 47.2 --> Snell would net about 2.4 WAR, so that would take NYY to 49.6 which would be the best in the AL and 3rd in baseball.
TO 43.3 --> 5th in baseball
TB 42.1 (This is too high - fangraphs has Franco playing half the year) --> 7th in baseball
Balt 39.9 --> 10th in baseball
Red Sox 35.7 --> 15th in baseball
NYY 47.2 --> Snell would net about 2.4 WAR, so that would take NYY to 49.6 which would be the best in the AL and 3rd in baseball.
TO 43.3 --> 5th in baseball
TB 42.1 (This is too high - fangraphs has Franco playing half the year) --> 7th in baseball
Balt 39.9 --> 10th in baseball
Red Sox 35.7 --> 15th in baseball
Man, poor Mariners fans if this is true. They've got one of the best young cores In MLB and currently Sportrac says their payroll is 21st in the sport at $96M. The idea that they wouldn't add a few relatively cheap veteran bats to this team and make a run has got to be infuriating.
Thinking the same thing. I don’t have any particular insight into their economics, but that area is RICH and on the face it seems pretty outrageous. Careful what you wish for, ownership wise, as it can sure be worse than FSG.
Average attendance was 15k+ two years ago and they more than doubled it to 33k+ this past season - which was a few hundred more than the Sox. Seems like they are putting fans in the seats now and would have some money to spend to get them over the hump. They are close.
Well here's some insight into their current economics:
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-to-take-full-control-of-root-sports-nw-clouding-teams-financial-outlook/
It might be a boon in the long run but right now they are going through some stuff.
Yeah, that qualifies as stuff.
When you’re at a place that the organization feels the need to clarify to fans that the games will actually be broadcast, it’s probably not double down time.
edit - to your point though @BeantownIdaho, the fundamentals seem in place that a push in near future is possible.
The Athletic sees the Sox and Giants as front-runners for Imanaga (though mentions "other teams" too, while saying Mets, Yankees and Orioles aren't involved).
https://theathletic.com/5179141/2024/01/04/shota-imanaga-contract-wander-franco-the-windup/
Compares him to Hisashi Iwakuma or Hiroki Kuroda.
https://theathletic.com/5179141/2024/01/04/shota-imanaga-contract-wander-franco-the-windup/
Compares him to Hisashi Iwakuma or Hiroki Kuroda.
And sorry to continue the Seattle tangent, but it does help me to remember how wildly fortunate we are as fans.
Since 2001, the Mariners have made the playoffs once (and were swept out of the ALDS) and only won 90 games twice. They’ve only made the playoffs 5 times in franchise history.
Since 2001, the Red Sox have won 4 World Series, made 11 playoffs, and won 90+ games 13 times (if my counting is right).
- Status