Offseason rumors

[Archer1979]

Based on how much the Tweets, X's, and general overall "speculation" on how much the Sox are in on any given FA or trade target... and that the Sox's moves so far have been kept fairly under wraps until they have actually happened, I'm really starting to get the sense that we're being fed what the agents want us to hear and not what is actually happening. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if guys like Boras are trying to rile up the fans to force the Sox FO to make a move that they don't necessarily want to make. While some of us may not be on-board with the Sox FO strategy, I'm not going to get riled up because they've supposedly missed out on the FA du jour.

I don't believe that the Sox are going to overpay. especially in years, this off-season. But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised that they're working on some trades to make the pitching and, hopefully, defense better.

They can plug any five of six starters in the rotation with three that can be easily moved to the bullpen in Houck, Whitlock, and Pivetta if they do pick someone up that's better. Since I suspect that trades are going to be the basis for an upgrade, the deadline is really the end of March. Patience might be the best watchword at this point.

 

[BringBackMo]

But who are the less flawed players they're targeting?

I don’t know. I don’t have a list of the players they are targeting, or of their offseason plans. Do you?

What I do know is that the only player they missed out on that I care about at all is Yamamoto. And I don’t think there was ever any chance he was coming to Boston or anywhere else that wasn’t LA. I’m happy they didn’t sign Imanaga. I’m glad they, like other teams, didn’t go to three years for Hernandez. To me, that’s some smart business. Maybe they’ll sign Snell or Montgomery. Maybe they will trade for a pitcher. I’ve said it 34 times so let’s make it 35: I don’t understand these reactions every time a so-so player doesn’t sign with the Sox, and I am more than happy to wait until opening day to assess how this off-season has gone.

 

[loneredseat]

Wanted him due to the fact he'd be cheaper than Snell but honestly it may make more sense to pay more for a known quantity like Snell (not that I have any faith in the Red Sox shelling out the money to get him).

Agreed! No need to freak out yet. Snell or Montgomery could have been our target all along (would've been mine).

 

[RS2004foreever]

On first blush this confirms that the market is weaker than a lot of free agents expected.

 

[TomRicardo]

Nobody knows what the Imanaga contract is exactly at this point.

But if you've seen it, why don't you explain just what it is?

The Giolito contract wasn't fantastic before seeing Imanaga. If Giolito turns it around you only have a year contract but if he doesn't you are on the hook for ~40/2. The contract is hugely on the player's side. Imanaga has a much lower risk and higher reward from what is being reported. Especially for a team like the Red Sox that aren't really in position to compete this year.

 

[moondog80]

On first blush this confirms that the market is weaker than a lot of free agents expected.

For Imanaga, yes.

 

[CR67dream]

Sonny Gray was second in the AL Cy Young voting last year. He has a career WAR of about 30. How is that not 'really good'? Yes, I know, he wanted to sign with St. Louis, but isn't it kind of classic sour grapes to argue that he isn't very good anyway?

I didn't argue he wasn't good, and he wasn't even on my list of passes. The Sox can't pass on someone who chooses to sign elsewhere because he wants, above all, to be where he signed. Come on man.

 

[bosockboy]

Stroman about to be off the board.

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1745075833415270417?s=46

 

[Tokyo Sox]

I don't know, this is a bit much. I mean, yeah, Nestor Cortes has a career HR rate of 1.3 per 9 innings and has been pretty good, but it's no shock that Cortes's best season was in 2022 when he lowered that rate to .9 and - even more importantly - the concern with Imanaga isn't that he's going to have a 30% increase to his NPB HR rate (if Imanaga has a rate of 1.3 HR/9 innings the Cubs will be ecstatic) but, as is more typical of NPB pitchers, see his HR rate double or triple. And the idea that a few simple changes is all that it takes seems a bit off. Imanaga is trying to make the transition to the Majors from Japan - which has traditionally had far less homers than America but just happens to be in a modern-day dead ball era. They literally had one of their league's HR champion take that title with 26 homers last year. One of the reasons Yamamoto was so prized is that NPB HR rates are perhaps the best indicator of future success in the Majors and he had the lowest ever of any Japanese pitcher attempting to make that transition (.1/9 innings). Imanaga's HR rate is ten times that number. But yes, Imanaga is a very interesting case. He does have good stuff, and you can totally see how some GM would think that he could defy the historical trend that is making other team's wary. If Breslow thinks that is unlikely and it was reflected in

You've made this point a number of times now -- and I think in general it's a great and interesting point -- but just wanted to say I think you should stop using the 26 HR # as it's a bit disingenuous. As I'm sure you're aware that was the HR leader in the Pacific League, not in Imanaga's Central League, where the leader had 41 HR last year, and #2 had 31 (and then everyone else was then in the 20's.)

 

[HfxBob]

I didn't argue he wasn't good, and he wasn't even on my list of passes. The Sox can't pass on someone who chooses to sign elsewhere because he wants, above all, to be where he signed. Come on man.

I don't think Boston was David Price's most favored destination when we signed him. Dombrowski's approach was to overpay to get the player you want. Not saying that DD's approach always works, but let's not pretend every player signs because it's where he wants to play. We have no clue whether Gray would have signed with the Sox if they offered more money than the Cardinals.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

Stroman about to be off the board.

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1745075833415270417?s=46

Well, I thought of Stroman as the most affordable and realistic to get.... now it's down to Montgomery and Snell...which I'm not confident we are serious bidders.

 

[Rovin Romine]

The Giolito contract wasn't fantastic before seeing Imanaga. If Giolito turns it around you only have a year contract but if he doesn't you are on the hook for ~40/2. The contract is hugely on the player's side. Imanaga has a much lower risk and higher reward from what is being reported. Especially for a team like the Red Sox that aren't really in position to compete this year.

No. I meant explain exactly what Imanaga's contract is. The one you are basing your comparison off of.

 

[CR67dream]

I don't think Boston was David Price's most favored destination when we signed him. Dombrowski's approach was to overpay to get the player you want. Not saying that DD's approach always works, but let's not pretend every player signs because it's where he wants to play. We have no clue whether Gray would have signed with the Sox if they offered more money than the Cardinals.

You accuse me of saying he's no good, when I said nothing of the sort, and he wasn't on my list of passes in the first place. Now you talk about David Price? Yeah, Dombrowski wanted Price and paid, but we have no idea if Breslow valued Gray the same way, and the circumstances couldn't be more different. Price was a move that was designed to put the Sox over the top, and they got a ring out of it. An aging Gray, coming to a team that needs a hell of a lot more help than just him, is not worth breaking the bank for or adding a premium to get him here.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Stroman about to be off the board.

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1745075833415270417?s=46

This is kinda good if it happens as it takes them out of Montgomery and Snell IMO, no? Also may make it harder to extend Soto next offseason if they decide they're going to do the extension thing with Cole. Not impossible at all knowing that they seem willing to blow past the tax thresholds and want to compete with the Dodgers

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I don't think Boston was David Price's most favored destination when we signed him. Dombrowski's approach was to overpay to get the player you want. Not saying that DD's approach always works, but let's not pretend every player signs because it's where he wants to play. We have no clue whether Gray would have signed with the Sox if they offered more money than the Cardinals.

Price was shopping himself to get the biggest deal he could. That kinda lends itself to the strategy of simply offering the most money in order to land a free agent. Let's not pretend that every free agent acts the same way and will take the biggest deal available.

For Gray, MLBTM predicted 4/90, The Athletic predicted 3/64, and Bleacher Report was pretty much identical at 3/65. By all accounts, he preferred to go to St. Louis since it was closer to home. Gray got 3/75 (4/100 if his option is picked up) from them before the end of November. Simplest conclusion is that he went to his preferred team, got an offer from them that was by all expections in line with market rate (maybe a little over), and took it. How far over that should Breslow have gone to lure a 33 year old pitcher away from his hometown team for what may be his last big contract?

 

[YTF]

I don’t know. I don’t have a list of the players they are targeting, or of their offseason plans. Do you?

What I do know is that the only player they missed out on that I care about at all is Yamamoto. And I don’t think there was ever any chance he was coming to Boston or anywhere else that wasn’t LA. I’m happy they didn’t sign Imanaga. I’m glad they, like other teams, didn’t go to three years for Hernandez. To me, that’s some smart business. Maybe they’ll sign Snell or Montgomery. Maybe they will trade for a pitcher. I’ve said it 34 times so let’s make it 35: I don’t understand these reactions every time a so-so player doesn’t sign with the Sox, and I am more than happy to wait until opening day to assess how this off-season has gone.

This is very much where I'm at. I haven't posted a ton about many of the players that the Sox have been linked to because A...so many of the reports are designed only to push a narritive that is subject to change multiple times with nothing tangible to legitimize said reports and B...I've not really felt passionate about most of these players. Yamamoto being the exception, but he wasn't coming here and Nola was never really an option. I wouldn't have minded Hernandez on a 3 year deal if the makeup of the team was different, but there are too many bad defenders on this team and we've seen the negative effects that extended innings have on a pitching staff. From my perspective, Imanaga was interesting because of his strikeout capabilities, but honestly the league is filled with high strikeout pitchers. Generally speaking, the league is also filled with hitters that both strikeout a ton and hit a lot of homeruns. Given the amount of homeruns he's served up in Japan, what leads anyone to think he would be much more attractive than a couple of the FAs not named Snell or Montgomery? I get the frustration over the pace of this FA season, but I also get that it's January 10th. As someone who was mostly supportive of Bloom, I recognize the need to move on from him. Many who were critical of him are now getting antsy with Breslow and yet he's made some improvements AND there are still 2 of the 3 highest profile FA pitchers available as well as trade opportunities.

 

[moondog80]

This is kinda good if it happens as it takes them out of Montgomery and Snell IMO, no?

I would not assume that. Possible though. And if so, it increases the chance that at least one of them has to settle for much less than they want.

 

[CR67dream]

I’ve said it 34 times so let’s make it 35: I don’t understand these reactions every time a so-so player doesn’t sign with the Sox, and I am more than happy to wait until opening day to assess how this off-season has gone.

Amen, brother, keep preaching. If only to offset those reactions and keep the thread readable. And for crying out loud, how about at least spring training?

That's Sig-worthy stuff right there.

 

[Whoop-La White]

The search for pitching is beginning to have the feel of the Trevor Story negotiations—there are still guys out there, but the Sox aren’t overly interested in one of them over the others (or don’t believe they are so much better than what they have in Houck, Crawford, etc. to be worth overpaying) and are just waiting for the guy who falls to them at their price. Which might not be unwise given where they are right now. If they aren't going to plug in an ace, then I'd love to see them pull off a trade for someone with upside, though the prospect cost is only going to increase the longer you wait.

 

[Rovin Romine]

This is very much where I'm at. I haven't posted a ton about many of the players that the Sox have been linked to because A...so many of the reports are designed only to push a narritive that is subject to change multiple times with nothing tangible to legitimize said reports and B...I've not really felt passionate about most of these players. Yamamoto being the exception, but he wasn't coming here and Nola was never really an option. I wouldn't have minded Hernandez on a 3 year deal if the makeup of the team was different, but there are too many bad defenders on this team and we've seen the negative effects that extended innings have on a pitching staff. From my perspective, Imanaga was interesting because of his strikeout capabilities, but honestly the league is filled with high strikeout pitchers. Generally speaking, the league is also filled with hitters that both strikeout a ton and hit a lot of homeruns. Given the amount of homeruns he's served up in Japan, what leads anyone to think he would be much more attractive than a couple of the FAs not named Snell or Montgomery? I get the frustration over the pace of this FA season, but I also get that it's January 10th. As someone who was mostly supportive of Bloom, I recognize the need to move on from him. Many who were critical of him are now getting antsy with Breslow and yet he's made some improvements AND there are still 2 of the 3 highest profile FA pitchers available as well as trade opportunities.

Yes. Bloom had his flaws, and I'm sure Breslow will prove to have some as well, since he's one of those human-being-thingies. But in the meantime, let's not let our reasoning and opinion-forming get ahead of the actual facts.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I’ll be the no-fun guy this time: Stroman, a ground ball machine, would be a bad choice for this team as constructed

 

[BringBackMo]

Amen, brother, keep preaching. If only to offset those reactions and keep the thread readable. And for crying out loud, how about at least spring training?

That's Sig-worthy stuff right there.

I can get to mid-March if you're willing....

 

[bosox188]

I’ll be the no-fun guy this time: Stroman, a ground ball machine, would be a bad choice for this team as constructed

Not necessarily. Having Story playing at SS for a full season is a tremendous difference from last year for infield defense. Even having Grissom playing at his most natural position at 2B is likely better than last year's revolving door, which featured some pretty subpar defenders like Valdez. For that reason along with Stroman's typically reliable source of innings, I'd have very much liked the fit here.

 

[HfxBob]

Price was shopping himself to get the biggest deal he could. That kinda lends itself to the strategy of simply offering the most money in order to land a free agent. Let's not pretend that every free agent acts the same way and will take the biggest deal available.

For Gray, MLBTM predicted 4/90, The Athletic predicted 3/64, and Bleacher Report was pretty much identical at 3/65. By all accounts, he preferred to go to St. Louis since it was closer to home. Gray got 3/75 (4/100 if his option is picked up) from them before the end of November. Simplest conclusion is that he went to his preferred team, got an offer from them that was by all expections in line with market rate (maybe a little over), and took it. How far over that should Breslow have gone to lure a 33 year old pitcher away from his hometown team for what may be his last big contract?

My comments about Gray have been mostly inspired by other comments that the Red Sox haven't missed out on any free agents that are a big loss. In a sense I'm just sticking up for Gray as a pretty good pitcher who would in fact have helped. That gets turned into "well, he didn't want to sign with us anyway". And I look like Mr. Negative, when I'm just trying to present an argument.

 

[CR67dream]

I’ll be the no-fun guy this time: Stroman, a ground ball machine, would be a bad choice for this team as constructed

I actually will be a little disappointed if we lose him to the Yankees, but I admit some of the reasons I really like him aren't relevant to what his actual value should be.

I also agree with 188 that the ground ball element isn't as scary this year as it would have been last. And I'll remind everyone again that "as constructed" could still change in a cocaine heartbeat.

 

[CR67dream]

My comments about Gray have been mostly inspired by other comments that the Red Sox haven't missed out on any free agents that are a big loss. In a sense I'm just sticking up for Gray as a pretty good pitcher who would in fact have helped. That gets turned into "well, he didn't want to sign with us anyway". And I look like Mr. Negative, when I'm just trying to present an argument.

It's not about being negative at all, it's about understanding how these things actually work. I would have welcomed Gray with open arms if he would have signed here for around what the Cardinals paid, he's worth that I think, but I'm definitely not bothered at all that they didn't see him as someone worth breaking the bank for. If all they needed was one good arm to make them a WS contender, it would be a different conversation.

 

[Auger34]

I am all for optimism and I am waiting until SprIng Training to give a final assessment but it’s not encouraging to be losing out on FA pitchers who only cost money.

I think some of the posters here are really underestimating how much pitching with 3 or more years of control will cost on the trade market.

id much prefer to keep our big prospects and just spend money to get Montgomery

 

[InsideTheParker]

Breslow knows more about pitching than any of us - if he wasn't convinced he could successfully take on the Imanaga project that makes me feel pretty confident he thinks Imanage is going to be a disaster. Now if he wanted to bid higher than the Cubs and that was nixed by the Red Sox brass that would be a different story...

I wish I knew if the Sox were even courting him, as was reported. If they were, then what specifically were the reasons they dropped out? The risk of his giving up more homers would obtain at any price, no?

 

[RS2004foreever]

Right now, they’ve lost 48 starts between Sale, Paxton, and Kluber. Let’s say we’d prefer to not do the opener thing at all, so that’s 16 more starts. So you are looking to replace 64 starts. You’d like to hope Giolito can take 28 of them.

So down to 36. Would be great to add another legit SP…but theoretically, could you get that many more from a combination of Pivetta (16 starts last year), Houck (21), Whitlock (10), and Crawford (23)?

Probably, but less than ideal, obviously.

This is really the question on the table. The Red Sox starting pitching will probably be better just because you have guys who are healthy. But at this point the idea the team was going to try and dramatically improve the rotation is looking less and less likely. Yes, the offseason has been slow and it is far from over yet. But optimism right now is a little short.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I'd like to say that think it's totally fair and valid to say "it's only..." and "let's see what it looks like at..." As noted, we don't know what players the Red Sox are targeting in Free Agency (aside from Giolito) and we don't know what players they're taking about in trades (aside from Dickie Fitts and Vaughn Grissom). This is obviously correct.


I think the angst comes from a few places.

1) This was an argument we heard a lot (and I'm not saying from specific people) heading into the '22 and '23 seasons regarding the rotation. It was completely valid to say it at the time. In both circumstances, the rotation put together was a huge part in having two bad teams. People are saying the same thing now (and it's totally valid) but other people are concerned that the same process - at least to this point - is going to lead to the same bad results. I do understand that it's a new front office and for all I know they could go out and sign Montgomery tomorrow and trade for Logan Gilbert the next day. Though in my opinion it's the recipe of dumpster diving in the rotation that will lead to bad results, not the chef following the recipe nor the brand of ingredients said chef uses.

2) Some people agree totally with the FanGraphs or Bleacher Report characterization of the farm system. Which is again, totally valid. They're looking at sites and individuals that rank prospects for a living and have said that the Red Sox farm system is excellent. As such, they don't really want to trade those prospects for pieces when similar pieces could be signed for just money and allowing the prospects to stay in the system. So when you see starters coming off the board and hear the refrain of the Sox looking to the trade market, it makes them nervous because of the prospects they'd have to deal. I don't necessarily agree, but I totally understand where they're coming from.

3) Someone like myself that falls more in line with the MLB.com ranking of the system (16th in baseball, just a little bit below average). Which I hope people would also accept as being just as valid as looking at FanGraphs or Bleacher Report. As such, they might not think that the pieces we have in the system are a) going to be able to be used in a trade to acquire starting pitching with the double edged sword of b) they don't think they're all that special in terms of leading to a core of success in 2026 and beyond that those from subset 2 listed above are predicting.


Again, I don't in any way discount the "it's still early" and the "we have no idea what they're going to do" arguments. Both of those things are certainly correct. But at some point when we've seen the same pattern (with the same totally valid arguments) lead to pretty horrendous baseball that hasn't been all that competitive AND hasn't done all that much to build up for the future in terms of selling off at the deadlines, while the dates of the rebuild just get stretched out further and further, I wouldn't say that the angst is totally unfounded either.

 

[ehaz]

At this point I really hope they try to extend Pivetta if they think the adjustments he made are sustainable.

If all they do is sign another guy to a 1-year deal, they are putting a lot of pressure on themselves to pull a trade out of their ass or have a ridiculous 2025 offseason because here’s your current 2025 rotation:

Bello
Crawford
Houck
Whitlock
Winkowski

 

[YTF]

Sonny Gray was second in the AL Cy Young voting last year. He has a career WAR of about 30. How is that not 'really good'? Yes, I know, he wanted to sign with St. Louis, but isn't it kind of classic sour grapes to argue that he isn't very good anyway?

My comments about Gray have been mostly inspired by other comments that the Red Sox haven't missed out on any free agents that are a big loss. In a sense I'm just sticking up for Gray as a pretty good pitcher who would in fact have helped. That gets turned into "well, he didn't want to sign with us anyway". And I look like Mr. Negative, when I'm just trying to present an argument.

That fact that Gray wanted to sign with St. Louis is something that you have acknowledged. It is pretty relevant if anyone is going to bring him up regarding Boston's off season.

 

[soxhop411]

The Sox remain determined to upgrade their rotation and, secondarily, add power to their lineup. But rather than throwing bags of money at those holes, they have bid with the market rather than beyond it in free agency while scouring the trade market for starters with multiple years of control.

What does that say about what the Red Sox are willing to spend?

Right now, based on projected salaries for arbitration-eligible and pre-arbitration players, the Red Sox have roughly $197 million in commitments as calculated for luxury-tax purposes in 2024 — a figure that includes a sizable $10 million nugget for in-season moves and additions. As such, if the Sox plan to stay below the $237 million threshold this year — a likely outcome — they have as much as $40 million of flexibility.

Last year, according to major league sources, the Sox finished the season with a payroll as calculated for luxury-tax purposes of $225.7 million — $7.3 million (3 percent) below the penalty-triggering threshold of $233 million. That spending largely fit within the team’s typical behavior of the last 17 seasons.

Since 2007, the Sox have spent beyond the tax threshold eight times and remained under it nine times. In 13 of the last 17 seasons, they’ve finished the year within 8 percent of the threshold, while landing within 4 percent in the majority (9) of those seasons.

That said, there’s another way to parse the numbers. Aside from the COVID-compressed 2020 season — when Chaim Bloom’s spring training trade of Mookie Betts and David Price radically reconfigured team payroll following two years of MLB-leading payrolls under Dave Dombrowski — the Sox hadn’t been more than $3.1 million or 2 percent below the tax threshold since 2009.

So last year represented a departure from the spending norms, albeit a relatively slight one. It also represented a more extreme shift relative to the rest of baseball, given that a record eight teams paid beyond the tax threshold last year. The Sox finished no higher than 10th in luxury-tax payroll, their lowest level relative to the league in at least 20 years.

What now?

If the Sox spend in a fashion similar to a year ago rather than looking to spend all the way to the threshold, then they’d still have about $30 million-$35 million to spend this offseason — a figure that theoretically would be consistent with what they offered Hernández (a $14 million average annual value) and with the addition of a starting pitcher below the Montgomery/Snell tier.

But are the Sox looking to go below even that mark?

Certainly, eyebrows have been raised in recent days by news that the Sox have been open to the possibility of dealing Kenley Jansen or Masataka Yoshida.

According to multiple sources, the Sox are not currently looking to cut payroll as an end unto itself, but are open to offloading some of their larger guaranteed contracts if they believe they can build a better, and better-rounded, team for 2024 and beyond by doing so. That could take the form of additions — particularly starting pitchers — for the coming season.

But it’s also worth noting that roster upgrades aren’t the only area where they might spend for the coming year. Long-term deals for young players such as Triston Casas or Brayan Bello — or even a multiyear deal for a soon-to-be free agent such as Nick Pivetta — also could be possibilities.

Is it possible the Sox will hold payroll flat from a year ago — when they reduced their luxury-tax payroll by roughly $7 million from 2022 levels — or even decrease it? During the 22-season tenure of the current Red Sox ownership group, there has been only one period in which they lowered payroll and/or held steady in back-to-back years — and it wasn’t by design.

In 2012, thanks to the intervention of the Dodgers in a late August trade for Adrían González, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford, the Sox lowered their payroll from the previous year’s levels, and then held almost exactly steady in 2013 (they scraped $200,000 off the payroll, sneaking just below that championship year’s luxury-tax threshold). Since then, they followed their two payroll reductions (2017 and 2020) with sizable increases in the following year.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/01/10/sports/red-sox-payroll-2024/
Alex is pretty much much saying what some of us have been saying here.
The absolute slowness of this offseason makes it seem like the sox are cutting payroll, when thats not really the case

 

[CR67dream]

I am all for optimism and I am waiting until SprIng Training to give a final assessment but it’s not encouraging to be losing out on FA pitchers who only cost money.

I think some of the posters here are really underestimating how much pitching with 3 or more years of control will cost on the trade market.

id much prefer to keep our big prospects and just spend money to get Montgomery

That's all more than fair, and very well reasoned. And I wouldn't characterize myself as necessarily optimistic. I'm just trying to keep myself in check, exercising some patience, not jumping to conclusions, and waiting until the facts are all in before getting worked up for what might be nothing.

If it does turn out to be that ownership is clearly hamstringing baseball ops efforts to compete, I will be as upset as anyone, but it's much better for my mental health (and the quality of my posting) to take this approach.

 

[geoflin]

My comments about Gray have been mostly inspired by other comments that the Red Sox haven't missed out on any free agents that are a big loss. In a sense I'm just sticking up for Gray as a pretty good pitcher who would in fact have helped. That gets turned into "well, he didn't want to sign with us anyway". And I look like Mr. Negative, when I'm just trying to present an argument.

Can you please just stop with the Sonny Gray comments. He didn't want to come here and isn't an example of anything. He is irrelevant to this conversation.

 

[cantor44]

Well, I'm personally twisting myself into pretzels to assume they will still improve the team this off season. After losing out on Imanaga and Hernandez, who received the amount of money you assume the Red Sox can afford and certainly an amount that doesn't burden the future, I have to wonder ...Yes, neither guy is elite, but both are GOOD, and would improve an area of need.

So ...WTF gives.

I suppose if they sign Snell, and Soler, and trade from their redundancies in outfield along with a good prospect, they could also then yield another good SP that way.

Giolito, O'Neill, Grissom, Snell, Soler, SP? ....that would be a good off season, actually. But I'm losing faith.

 

[BringBackMo]

I am all for optimism and I am waiting until SprIng Training to give a final assessment but it’s not encouraging to be losing out on FA pitchers who only cost money.

I think some of the posters here are really underestimating how much pitching with 3 or more years of control will cost on the trade market.

id much prefer to keep our big prospects and just spend money to get Montgomery

But what if the Sox have decided that this isn't the year to try solve the longer term issues with the rotation? I'm NOT saying they have decided that. But what if they wind up acquiring another starter (like Giolito) who is more of a short term solution that allows them to compete for a playoff spot this year while continuing the development of their young players and prospects? Under that scenario, they could look for the longer term solution at the trade deadline or next off-season (or even the one after that) while still fielding a playoff-caliber team this year.

Then again, perhaps they will sign Montgomery or Snell, or trade for and extend one of the young starters that are in their final year of control and are rumored to be available. The Red Sox want to be good in 2024 and they want to be good for years after that. Both of those scenarios seem like they will require acquiring more good starting pitching. It's possible that the starters we lean on in 2024 will be the same ones we lean on in the years after that. But it hardly seems necessary that they are.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

At this point I really hope they try to extend Pivetta if they think the adjustments he made are sustainable.

I’m in complete agreement here. The guy was legitimately our best pitcher in the second half last year after making some documented adjustments to his pitch mix. He’s only earned $10M in his career with another $7M estimated in his last year of arbitration. Given his age (turns 31 next month) and the winding path his career has taken, he might be willing to lock in some guaranteed money with the organization that revived his career. Would something like 4 years for $52M (so 3/$45M of new money) work for both sides?

 

[JCizzle]

But what if the Sox have decided that this isn't the year to try solve the longer term issues with the rotation? I'm NOT saying they have decided that. But what if they wind up acquiring another starter (like Giolito) who is more of a short term solution that allows them to compete for a playoff spot this year while continuing the development of their young players and prospects? Under that scenario, they could look for the longer term solution at the trade deadline or next off-season (or even the one after that) while still fielding a playoff-caliber team this year.

At least in my head, you just described the approach to the last couple of seasons with this point. If that was their plan, I'm not quite sure why they fired Chaim.

 

[chawson]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/01/10/sports/red-sox-payroll-2024/
Alex is pretty much much saying what some of us have been saying here.
The absolute slowness of this offseason makes it seem like the sox are cutting payroll, when thats not really the case

Thanks for posting. I hope people read this from Speier. It's a good and measured assessment that looks at things from a lot of angles.

According to multiple sources, the Sox are not currently looking to cut payroll as an end unto itself, but are open to offloading some of their larger guaranteed contracts if they believe they can build a better, and better-rounded, team for 2024 and beyond by doing so. That could take the form of additions — particularly starting pitchers — for the coming season.

 

[mikeford]

If that was their plan, I'm not quite sure why they fired Chaim.

Oh that's simple: they needed a sacrificial lamb to attempt to quell unrest.

I say attempt because I think it's pretty clear this didn't work and fan unrest remains tremendously high.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

But what if the Sox have decided that this isn't the year to try solve the longer term issues with the rotation? I'm NOT saying they have decided that. But what if they wind up acquiring another starter (like Giolito) who is more of a short term solution that allows them to compete for a playoff spot this year while continuing the development of their young players and prospects? Under that scenario, they could look for the longer term solution at the trade deadline or next off-season (or even the one after that) while still fielding a playoff-caliber team this year.

Then again, perhaps they will sign Montgomery or Snell, or trade for and extend one of the young starters that are in their final year of control and are rumored to be available. The Red Sox want to be good in 2024 and they want to be good for years after that. Both of those scenarios seem like they will require acquiring more good starting pitching. It's possible that the starters we lean on in 2024 will be the same ones we lean on in the years after that. But it hardly seems necessary that they are.

Yeah. I understand the urgency we all have to see the Sox improve the rotation but I don't understand why some seem to feel it has to be done with long term commitments in order for it to be done "right".

I'm reminded of some of the sentiment back in December 2009 when they had signed John Lackey was that now they had a full rotation locked in for at least 3-4 years (Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Matsuzaka). Part of that was motivated by the farm being a bit lacking in pitching prospects around that time, but in retrospect, was it the best path forward? It also seemed like a reaction to the previous winter when the rotation was filled out by one year contracts to Brad Penny and John Smoltz. Maybe a one year deal to someone else (Bedard, Harden, Penny again) instead of Lackey keeps them in play for a Cliff Lee the following winter or Yu Darvish the winter after. Who knows?

Point being, I'd rather see them go with another short-term signing like Giolito than extending an elite level contract to a non-elite level starter just to make a "long term" move.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

At least in my head, you just described the approach to the last couple of seasons with this point. If that was their plan, I'm not quite sure why they fired Chaim.

I agree totally that it's the exact same plan as prior off-seasons (it's one that I personally don't think will work - but I'm also just a peon on a message board and in clearly no way smarter than literally anyone in any front office in any sport. Though if we're not going to talk about their moves and what we think will happen from them, or what we might like to see done differently, I guess we could just shut down the board until the start of Spring Training games).

However, as to why they fired Bloom - simple explanation could also be that they believe in the plan but no longer the person hired to execute it. Which, I mean, since Bloom apparently had deals lined up for Verdugo last deadline and Sale in '22 and chose not to execute on either of them and since I think regardless of our thoughts on Giolito we'd all assume he's a FA step above Perez, Richards, Hill, Wacha and Kluber in terms of the baseball hierarchy and Breslow did all these things within a quarter on the job, would be a totally defensible and logical take from the front office.

Again, I don't believe in the strategy (regardless of who is running it) but it's certainly a plausible answer.

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

At this point, I’m just done assuming they’ll make an impactful signing for the rotation. Monty and Snell are absolute pipe dreams.There are a lot of holes on this team in general and this division is just loaded. Roll with the guys we have currently and see how it pans out by the ASG and if they’re in a position to snag a WC spot, possibly make a deal.

I’m all for the mindset of not signing someone just for the sake of signing someone, but what I don’t want is the likes of Teel/Mayer/Anthony to be dealt unless it’s a bonafide stud. Particularly, Teel.

 

[loneredseat]

Well, I'm personally twisting myself into pretzels to assume they will still improve the team this off season. After losing out on Imanaga and Hernandez, who received the amount of money you assume the Red Sox can afford and certainly an amount that doesn't burden the future, I have to wonder ...Yes, neither guy is elite, but both are GOOD, and would improve an area of need.

So ...WTF gives.

Maybe, there were just too many questions surrounding Imanaga and Hernandez (who I thing has been trending downward the past couple of seasons). I'm hoping that Breslow is leaning more toward "solid" players. Grissom is a pretty solid prospect. Giolito, despite his recent struggles, has been very durable. I'd be surprised for this reason if Snell was signed, but I'm holding out for Montgomery.
Breslow said he was looking for 2 SP, one through the trade market and one through free agency. That was before Sale was traded, so I don't know if we can only look forward to one more or if we still have two coming to us, but either way, I think we have something to look forward to.

Monty and Snell are absolute pipe dreams.

Why? Because they did not sign... who? Maybe they were holding onto their money for one of these guys.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I think that the big problem with this offseason is that we know that the Red Sox have two really big needs: starting pitching and right handed pop. Knowing that, we get pumped for the players that could answer those bells:

- First it was Ohtani and we got our hopes up a bit and even though there was a less than 5% shot when he was knocked off the board, it stung a bit.
- Then it was Soto and he was traded to the Yankees.
- Then it was Yamamoto and he went to the Dodgers.

So then we have to shift to tier two acquisitions:

- Teoscar: gone
- Imanango: joins the Cubs.
- Stroman: probably going to the Yanks.
- And it doesn't sound like the Red Sox are in on Snell or Montgomery or Burnes or Cease or Lauzado -- I mean they could be, but we haven't heard that they were.

It's like water torture watching player after player choose anyone but the Red Sox (except for Giolito) and it's frustrating. And @CR67dream, you're 100% right it is only January 10 and we should probably wait until five weeks before declaring the off season a disaster but I mean, this is a real-time message board and I think that the frustrations of watching other teams pick up the players that you wanted (actually needed) while you're seemingly treading water sucks. And I think it's okay to say that it sucks.

I don't even particularly like Stroman that much, but he'd be better than what we have right now. To top it all off there is nothing coming from Fenway so it's not even like you can hear Breslow or Kennedy or John Henry say something, it's all innuendo and reading tea leaves and unnamed sources telling us what they think that the Sox are thinking. Loose lips sink ships is great for a military attack, but for fuck's sake, this is a baseball team trying to get people hyped up to buy tickets in the summer; a little transparency would be nice.

 

[RedOctober3829]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/01/10/sports/red-sox-payroll-2024/
Alex is pretty much much saying what some of us have been saying here.
The absolute slowness of this offseason makes it seem like the sox are cutting payroll, when thats not really the case

The problem is that they are continually missing on pitchers that would just cost money and not draft picks or top prospects. They've built up a pretty good farm system and having to unload a Roman Anthony or a Marcelo Mayer for a true top of the rotation guy would undercut a lot of what they've been building toward.

 

[CR67dream]

And I think it's okay to say that it sucks.

Of course it is! And it does suck in that we are stuck in this purgatory until something happens. It's also OK to focus on the big picture and remind folks there's more to come. I mean, that's why we're here, right, to challenge each other's opinions and beliefs? I hope Speir's article at least allows people to take a breath and understand they're very busy. I've enjoyed the back and forth here a lot!

And just as an aside, nothing JMOH and I are discussing has anything to do with our mod role, other than maybe an opportunity to clarify things and lead by example. When we throw ourselves into the conversation our thoughts are as open to challenge and criticism as anyone else's. Nothing in here has required even a thought of disciplinary attention from me. I haven't posted this much here in a long time, and I'm just trying to be me.

 

[GPO Man]

Montgomery might be the best fit if he doesn’t return to the Rangers. He is already familiar with the area with his wife’s medical residency. Boras likes to wait out the market but also knows the Red Sox need a starter. With NYY and Chicago most likely out on another starter, what other realistic options does he have?

 

[Max Power]

I think that the big problem with this offseason is that we know that the Red Sox have two really big needs: starting pitching and right handed pop. Knowing that, we get pumped for the players that could answer those bells:

- Then it was Soto and he was traded to the Yankees.

Imagine giving up a ton of prospects and a $400 million contract only to find out Soto bats left handed.