Ooops. My bad. Thanks for the clarification!
But for the record I was talking about Mario Soto.
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But for the record I was talking about Mario Soto.
For what it's worth, I'd certainly say yes, it was.
Lackey was a very reliable starter in the top half of the rotation that had demonstrated not completely turning into a puddle in the post-season in his time with LAA (or possibly Anaheim at the time). Even in a "bad" year in 2010 he was still worth 1.7 bWAR. Of course 2011 happened and Lackey needed TJS (plenty of them do at some point) and he went on to be a major reason the team won the title in 2013. He also seemed to have a lot of trade value at the 2014 deadline when he was moved (and the fact that Cherington elected to trade him for Joe Kelly and Allen Craig is still baffling since Lackey had 1.5 seasons left and not .5) but the narrative looks a lot different had Cherington traded him for another version of Eduardo Rodriguez (like he got for Andrew Miller).
Lackey is in many ways the guy I compare Montgomery to in the current landscape, and I really hope we land Montgomery (though I think there is a less than 1% chance of that happening). Could they have gotten Darvish or Lee like you mentioned, sure, I suppose. But at the time I think the signing made a ton of sense and it worked out really darn well - as in a World Series title with "value" recouped at the end in a trade.
In a hypothetical world where the Sox sign Montgomery to a 7 year deal, win the World Series with him as a major part in 2026 and then he is a very valuable commodity at the following season's trade deadline vs any hypothetical unknown, I'd take that in a second.
Probably a good thing they signed Lackey too. Going into 2010, BA actually had the Sox as 5th in their organizational rankings (prospect rankings at the time) and Sox Prospects had 7 "pitching" prospects in the top 20 with Casey Kelly (if one wants to call him an SP or a SS, but whatever, he amounted to nothing); Stolmy Pimentel, Felix Doubront, Michael Bowden, Junichi Tazawa, Kyle Weiland and Stephen Fife. For comparison, the current iteration of the Sox system is probably pretty close to 5 on BA (I don't know, I don't have a subscription) and there are only 4 pitching prospects in the top 20.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2010-mlb-organizational-talent-rankings/
FWIW, here is an excerpt from BA's write up in 2010 which sounds like it could be written right now - just with different names - "The Red Sox don’t have a lot of big league-ready talent, but they have more high-ceiling position prospects and arms than any other organization. That group includes the impact prospects mentioned above, as well as OF Reymond Fuentes, SS/2B Derrik Gibson, LHP Drake Britton and RHP Madison Younginer."
I've said it before, but Theo was great at the "big lie". He said that the playoffs were just a crapshoot because it's a smart thing to say. He preached closer by committee. Each of those things A) reduced some responsibility if you get there and fail; b) it made everyone else think he actually believed that; c) might have kept the market for closers in check. Those were his words.
What were his actions - to go out and acquire (retain) guys that had been pretty money in the playoffs or excellent closers and - surprise - they were pretty money in the playoffs, to always aspire to having two top starters (Sox version - Schilling, Foulke, Beckett, Lackey, continuing to give Ortiz huge deals, obviously; Cubs version - acquiring Lester, Lackey again, Aroldis Chapman). Theo was the best at saying something to make people believe it and then doing the exact opposite with his actions - which led to a ton of success and making him possibly the best baseball executive of his generation.
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Cold water alert, I find it impossible to believe the plan is to land one of Snell or Montgomery. It would be a strategic and financial failure to put yourself in the position of having to sign one of them, whatever it takes, in February. This may be where the Giants are. Now, maybe Boras overplays his hand and the Sox get an unlikely opportunity late to take advantage of soft demand, but Breslow's working plan lies elsewhere.
I don't think it's the plan, but I do think they are ready to pounce opportunistically if their market collapses and they have to settle for a much smaller deal than hoped. That's not likely to happen, but at this point it's not a total longshot either. And of course, there are additional plans, independent of those two. I think.
Unless they've been signaling all winter (through vague and unsourced rumors in the media) that they don't want to spend in desperation to get one of those guys.
![tenor[1].gif](https://sosh-cdn.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/data/attachments/79/79522-2b1a714182a6d0558d33f8c61f3d00b4.jpg)
Though I think you're right, the plan probably lies elsewhere. Leaving the door open to be a fallback for one of those guys isn't necessarily a bad plan to acquire one of them considering where the rumored market for them was during and immediately following the YY hoopla.
If either can be had at overpaying cost ($30M per) at 5 years or less, it's a great deal in a way now.... I wonder if that's the hold up on them. I also can't imagine any of these guys will be looking for one year deals like Giolito. Their respective values is more likely to go down than up at their age and how well they set themselves up for this offseason. I mean... yeah, it's possible, but it'd be a pretty dangerous chance to take.
I think you're probably on to something here, but I don't necessarily think it's cold water if so. Personally, I am kind of fascinated to see the new FO form a personality of its own, and I am not married to any approach. These are some smart folks and I think they deserve a chance to form a collective identity. YMMV.
If Stroman goes to NY, the musical chairs of viable suitors for both are dwindling.
The optimist in me says Breslow is playing a chess level game of musical chairs.
I'm thinking out loud here, but this is also a part of having a strong farm system, especially in today's game. How many true top of the rotation guys were out there this year. Yamamoto, Nola, perhaps Montgomery? The first two seem to have had a clear preference as to where they wanted to pitch and the other is still out there with likely 6 or so suitors. So perhaps one guy available. Is he a "whatever it takes" kind of talent? $25-$30M per year for how many years? Is he THAT guy? BTW, these are mostly rhetorical because I have no idea, but my gut tells me $162M ($27M per) for 6 is pushing the edge of uncomfortable for me. Is 5/$150M nuts? IDK Definite points for his durability the past 3 seasons (avg. between 5.1 and 5.2 IP per start over 95 starts) and we all know the need for that.
Well I'll give you one thing, you've been pretty consistent in your body of work here.
I don’t think those kind of statements are going to fly here. This isn’t Reddit.
Come on. we've had this discussion and I don't think you're listening. We've barely entered the FA season and you're writing a Doomsday scenario. This is talk radio BS. If you think that there are specific players who would have warranted the investment of big dollars who the RS have passed on, identify them and we'll discuss the merits of your suggestion.
PS: Others said it better.
I'm sure he's aware of it. He's offered nothing of substance in the 13 posts he's made here in the past year.
To be fair, we are way past "barely entered the FA season". 11 of the top 15 free agent SP are gone. I'm not panicking, but I'm...curious. My guess remains they are still in "sign the best guys who will take one or two years" mode.
Unless, of course, Snell or Monty have to take a 3 year deal.
I think the main angst is that the avenues to improve this team to realistically compete this year have nearly completely dry up. Even if they get extremely lucky and lets say Pivetta and Giolito become top line starters (this isn't completely unrealistic but very unlikely), they are on their walk years. So the team is right back to square zero next offseason if it does "succeed". The team needs top line starting talent as a foundation to build their team. Instead they have a couple of rental lottery tickets, a mid rotation starter (which is very valuable) in Bello, a bunch of guys that have real issues the third time through lineup, and no pitching help in AAA/AA. This is the weakest pitching situation the Red Sox have been in since FSG took over by a wide margin. Pitching has become an insanely costly and it is clear how difficult the market is. But instead of investing into it, the team stubbornly keeps trying to find some sort of bargain in a gambler's fallacy.
The reality is if you aren't going to pay top dollar, you need to either trade away prospects or gamble more long term on guys like Giolito. I get Giolito didn't want to get locked in due to his two down years, but if you are the Red Sox and you are looking up at the rest of the division, a one year gamble with three year's of cost is a terrible idea. It is weird because they made the long term gamble with Story and Yoshida when it made no sense (the team had a ton of OF and middle infield prospects to fill in) but refuse to with pitching. It is an obsession with winning every trade and being the smartest guys in the room that have strangled this team.
I can totally accept if Breslow would come out and say "Look we tried to come out but no one fit into our plans this is going to be a longer rebuild than we thought." but then why would you give Giolito that contract? That is the contract you give when you are a mid rotation pitcher away and you have the money to role the dice. The only way the Giolito contract makes sense is if you gave up already, and you are looking to get some lotto tickets to flip in July for assets like the Red Sox should have done with Paxton. If that is the case don't pretend to be interested in Imanaga. You weren't.
They need to stop with this pretense that they are trying to win. They are not. They are trying to win if the price is right. That is fine but set expectations and stop bullshitting. FSG is not going to stop the bullshit because they want people to keep buying tickets for middling product at premium price. To admit you are taking a step back would mean there would be an expectation of pricing accordingly.
I get where you are going here and I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but ultimately the Red Sox need starters to fill innings and Giolito does do that. How effective those innings will be remains to be seen, but he'll likely be out there for 180 of them. I don't love the contract and would have preferred someone better, but he fills a basic need.
Yes, mid January used to be MLB Siberia. We’re a month from pitchers and catchers. I think Snell definitely might have to do a 3 year deal.
Forgive the lack of an addition here, but I think this is a great post and a really reasonable POV.
I agree with so much of this.
However as to the Giolito contract (and the timing between the two) I think it's entirely possible that Giolito was lined up to take Sale's place. Both in the rotation and as someone that you could deal at the trade deadline IF things go well for him and if not, the risk is fairly minimal. If I recall correctly, the Giolotio story was "broken" around 6pm two Friday's ago and Sale was moved around 2pm the following day.
Don't get me wrong - I have no interest in more one year deals as a philosophy to build the rotation, but if Breslow signs Michael Lorenzen today and tomorrow deals Nick Pivetta for Gavin Stone or Ben Brown I'd be totally on board, and I'd think of that move much differently than the parade of Perez, Richards, Wacha, Hill, Kluber, Paxton, etc, etc BECAUSE of the subsequent follow through. Breslow demonstrated the follow through, Bloom never did, and I don't think people (talking heads in the media) have been drawing that distinction enough.
Do you think there's a dollar amount they can spend right now to make them into a serious WS frontrunner this year? I'm not being snarky at all, I'm legit curious. And I'm also not 100% sure what you mean by "win". I certainly think they're going to try to contend and build over the next few years with a lot of young talent knocking on the door. I just don't think they're anywhere near WS or Bust at this point. Nor should they be.
Recency bias and all, but the Mets won the off season last year, largely on impulse and money. Padres not looking so hot. It's no slam dunk that going that route doesn't blow up in your face.
I would have rather them go in 75/3 with a fourth year option then the current contract (I know Gioloto might not have said yes to this exact construct but it would have somewhere in this area) because you are correct. I am not saying getting Giolito is bad, I am saying the structure of the contract before Imanaga and the rest of the market settled makes little sense unless you know you are punting. By the way, it would be totally fair after you trade Sale get completely shut down by Seattle and then not get movement from Florida, that you realize this isn't your year and go short term with Giolito.
It's not that clear-cut. Getting Giolito on the roster sooner provided more flexibility for pursuing other moves as the the offseason plays out.
Now? No, that ship has sailed this offseason. They aren't going to win unless 1) a monkey or a dog join the team with hilarity ensuing, 2) An Angel comes down and helps them win, or 3) a 12 YO breaks his arm and gains the ability to throw 100 mph heat (I am looking at you Mata). Maybe they can win the division if Kennedy threatens to move the team to Orlando and Cora has a good picture of Kennedy in a skimpy pull away cocktail gown (not sure what his policy is on leopard print).
That said, look, you don't care if they are last again or a couple of years, good for you? That is fine if that is your preference. I think it is super weird but to each their own. I would prefer the team to be honest about where they are.
The young talent is weird because it is not like they have some overwhelming bridge of talent. The have a healthy pipeline of up the middle players that can be starters. No pitching above single A so tough to say any real starting talent. Generally I would look at what the Red Sox have and think they are in a good position to make a trade but it doesn't look like there any buyers. Holding on to too much prospect talent inevitably leads to disappointment. Also if they do develop an all star, the guy is going to be gone in five years unless he is really young so *shrug*.
Eh, you are right it is not clear cut but outside of trade with Florida, Seattle, or if Houston has gone crazy and/or cheap, I really can't see where that plays out. Adding Montegomery isn't going to get you to where the Giolito contract makes sense outside of the punting context.
Come on man, I'm seriously trying to learn from you and understand why you think the outlook is so bleak. I don't see it that way. I have spent quite a bit of time explaining why, and said hand me a pitchfork if things look this way at the beginning of ST.
Why won't you give this FO a chance to show what they can do? They're brand new. I get that you believe FSG isn't gonna spend, but I just don't get the absolute certainty. All I've said is I'll wait and see.
I am in no way content being last, and nothing I've posted even remotely suggests that. Please at least address my positions in good faith.
This paragraph should be digested by all fans excepting the first sentence - I don't think its realistic for ownership to say that their strategy isn't anything but winning. However if you weigh the totality of their actions over the past five years or so (and beyond for the roots of it), they either lack the ability or the desire to go after free agents with a healthy market or premium players who will require a lot of risk in terms of dollars/years.
In short, they are maintaining the theme park. Just don't expect any cool new rides or any significant investment and you can still have a good time.
The Giolito roller coaster is over there. Ignore the scuffs and chipped paint. It still works fine!
The only thing that's new in the FO is Breslow, isn't it? There are a lot of people in that front office who have been there a while.
Yeah, only a new guy running the show, that's all. We all know who's in that top position doesn't matter, right? Might as well have kept the old guy who couldn't seem to pull a trigger on any moves at the deadline. Moves the new guy made right out of the gate. Oh yeah some other tweaks too as you'll see if you read the Breslow thread.
That a lot of the staff was retained just means they saw the main problem was the guy at the top. You know this, right?
Wow, that's a lot of sarcasm. All I said was it's not really a brand new front office. And nobody knows for sure where all the problems lay or didn't.
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Less hyperbolic analogy, and more analysis please.
We already know what your position is, and what DeJesus's position is. At this point it seems to be emotional, not rational. I know what you're going to post if Snell signs with his first-choice team (which isn't the Sox.)
If you want to justify that in some way that does not heavily lean into the feels, or ignores actual facts. . .I'd be genuinely curious to read it.
Breslow walked into a tire fire and we aren't sure if he was given a fire truck or garden hose to fix it. It looks like a garden hose while Sam Kennedy is claiming it was a fire truck. I don't really want to blame Breslow because the only fixes to make FSG talking points a reality were spending multiple nine figures. Not getting YY at that price is reasonable unless you are the dickheads promising you are going to compete after enabling a spoiled child to run your team into the ground. It is not Breslow's fault they didn't get YY but it is FSG's fault. Don't say you are going to pull out all the stops and you will compete then pretend you are willing to do what is necessary up until you are called out.
I didn't like the Giolito contract due to timing and messaging but it may have been the best he was able to do given the constraints left by FSG.
But let's be very very clear there is a not a new guy running the show. There is a new guy running the day to day. He has been great at that.
Nothing particularly surprising, but sounds like they had some conversations for Cease, Burnes, and Luzardo that each went nowhere. From Bowden's mailbag in the Athletic:
Not that he needs anyone to defend him, but I think @CR67dream has gone above and beyond to attempt to post in a sincere and earnest way. When so many people are posting in what, to me, feels like a bad-faith manner, a little sarcasm feels warranted.
No, the Red Sox didn't clean house in the FO, but they changed the top-line decision maker - the single most important position in that front office. I can understand the skepticism and frustration regarding FSG's actions over the past couple years, but to act as though what Breslow does next is some kind of foregone conclusion is something I can't relate to or understand, especially after what I feel like have been some promising moves since he took the reins.
That's nothing more than Boras trying to goad them into a big offer. Zero new information.
My kid taught me about the Zorn palette. Maybe that's the Sox' plan, doing as much as possible with really not very much.
I dont know about that. Dont most theme park rides work the same time after time? There's consistency. For some, the joy of sports is that we really have no idea what's going to happen (even though we pretend that we do). Giolito isnt Space Mountain, where I know exactly what's going to happen every time I hop on it (except for the night I rode it multiple times on mushrooms, yet I digress).
The thing with this is, in order to maintain the theme park, they need to at least be playoff contenders almost every year. The falloff in popularity is already dramatic and will be insane with more crappy seasons in the next year or two. Two more last place finishes would be catastrophic.
All I'm saying is that I'm not seeing them being blind to that, and I expect that if only to maintain the theme park, they know they have to put a better, competitive product on the field. They know this can't continue. I just don't think a slow developing offseason signifies a lack of commitment, and some seem to think it's a foregone conclusion. If I'm being obtuse, it's not intentional. The certainty of doom is really all I don't get. I'm just giving it time.
That's absolutely fair, he certainly doesn't control the purse strings or make big unilateral decisions. I'm guessing if there was any truth in the reports of the Sox not offering more than two years to free agents, it meant without ownership approval. I don't know.
I'm just not convinced they're stupid enough to keep rolling out drek year after year believing that will fly enough to keep asses in the seats and TV money rolling. I could be totally and completely wrong, but if they are, they'll pay the price. Unfortunately, so will we.
I actually think the risk-reward is pretty similar, or at least as similar as you can get with two players with such different histories. I mean, Giolito's bad numbers last year were largely because he couldn't keep the ball in the park, which is the very same concern that teams have with Imanaga. Obviously, there is reason to think that Giolito can pitch better than that, because he has, and there is reason for some hope with Imanaga because he does have great stuff. So they are both high-risk/high reward but, as you point out, what's the point of Giolito on the Sox if they aren't going to be in a position to compete next year? A good Giolito walks in a year anyway, so I guess the only upside is winning a few more games in a non-contending year. That, or whatever return they might get for him if they are comfortable flipping him at the deadline. And the downside is pretty bad. They only get him for 25' if he sucks. With Imanaga's deal (if it really is just two years guaranteed) if the high-reward was realized in the first year, the Sox would have a below market starter for 2025, a year when they really should be better positioned to compete.
It's funny, as someone who was particularly against an Imanaga signing, I still would have been more aggressive than the Sox were in pursuing him. I was against signing him because he seems like a project and, due to all the rumors of a long-term big money contract (5/$100m), I feared he would be paid like a star. If he's only guaranteed 2/$30m and everything else is coming through incentives (as has been rumored) that seems like you are actually paying him like a project, not a star, and that is a gamble that seems worth taking. I mean, Jesus, that is only $7 million more than what Teo Hernandez got for one year - at age 31 and coming off a .740 OPS season. At the very least, it seems like a better play than signing Giolito.
That said, as long as Breslow was the one who didn't think outbidding the Cubs was worth it I have no issue with this. He is far more qualified than any of us to know if Imanaga is a project worth taking on. Unfortunately, since the Sox were actually rumored to be pretty involved, there is reason to be concerned that Breslow was actually interested but was overruled by upper management. In that case, the team has more problems than just missing out on taking a reasonable gamble in Imanaga.
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Shouldn’t have ownership have been transparent with Breslow about any potential spending restrictions before he was hired? If they weren’t up front about it, I would be pissed if I was Breslow.
Whatever spending parameters are in place, there's no way Breslow didn't know about them when he took the job.
There is zero percent chance he took the job without knowing what the corporate plan was for the team.
Yea we are on the same page except I don't think they are stupid to think they can keep parading out drek. It is why I took swipe at the losing thing, I am just getting annoyed at how many people think the last four years have gone well. If people don't recognized what they just did is terrible, why would FSG ever invest in a winner? I wouldn't mind another down year if they just came out and said it.
I also don't think the farm is extraordinary, though it has a ton of future value. The range behind the top three aren't worth much in the trade market and the reality is Teel, Anthony, and Mayer maybe one becomes 4+ WAR player, on becomes a consistent starter, and one flames out. If they all become perennial all stars, amazing but the reality is there is very little chance of that. They would all need to take big steps forward except possibly Mayer. That doesn't mean a Teel or Anthony isn't valuable. What it does mean though is the farm is not going to save this team with its present trade and free agent strategy. They need be more aggressive to get back to the 92-95 win range
Ok. Care to provide evidence to the contrary? Just seems like everyone on here has read he's susceptible to home runs, imagines the ballpark he'll play in 50% of the time, and calls it an analysis.
And as @ehaz shared, Imanaga's teammate in Japan Trevor Bauer addressed that point in an interview saying that Imanaga threw his elite spin fastball to be effective against flatter swing planes in Japan. I expect he'll adjust to MLB hitters just fine and the HR worries are overblown.
Personally I think teams are scared of limited recent success from Japanese imports (Yoshida, Kikuchi, Suzuki) and want to go the conservative route with a proven commodity.
The quotes at the time.
Werner said "the team doesn't have any built-in restrictions." He also signaled that the team has to "take the long view on spending" and "not throw money at free agents without regard to long-term consequences."
MASSLIVE.com, 11/2
Breslow described an "unwavering commitment" from the front office and that "all options would be available to him in building the roster."
Breslow: "Resources are not a problem here...I don't see financial resources as an eliminating factor. I think that was something that was clear in the conversations that we had."
BOSTON GLOBE, 11/2
Werner said "the team doesn't have any built-in restrictions." He also signaled that the team has to "take the long view on spending" and "not throw money at free agents without regard to long-term consequences."
MASSLIVE.com, 11/2
Breslow described an "unwavering commitment" from the front office and that "all options would be available to him in building the roster."
Breslow: "Resources are not a problem here...I don't see financial resources as an eliminating factor. I think that was something that was clear in the conversations that we had."
BOSTON GLOBE, 11/2
I am very impressed by what Breslow has pulled off thus far. I think that Grissom for Sale trade was a stroke of genius. I like the Giolito contract.
I think it's important to separate Breslow from Kennedy/Henry/Werner (FSG). Someone linked a Speier report above and it seems like the payroll is going to be the same as last year or slightly lower. As a fan, that is disappointing. I was fully expecting them to at least reach the first luxury tax threshold. It's been said ad nauseum but the amount that they charge to go to a game and there should be more money invested back into this team and improving the roster.
Additionally, while there is still some time, I think we all need to acknowledge that the FA pitching options are very slim right now. Stroman looks like he is going to end up in NYY. Essentially the only options that are left that actually look like improvements are two Boras clients. In order to trade for a good pitcher who has more than 2 years of control, the farm is going to have to take a hit.
IMO, I think the extra wild card spot and the most recent MLB playoff results have given FSG some cover to spend less. Baseball appears as wide open as ever and it seems like FSG is very content to hover a little below the luxury tax by not sitting at the big boy table at free agency, hope to snag one of those last playoff spots, and make a run.
@John Marzano Olympic Hero touched on something in an earlier post that I think is very important to note again here, especially as it pertains to the Red Sox. Boston fans LOVE to consume information about their teams and be "involved" in the Hot Stove. I live in Tampa and the difference in fanbases seeking out rumors/information is night and day. I really think that FSG has underestimated this aspect over the last 5 years maybe as an overcorrection to the disastrous Carl Crawford offseason. This is a "what have you done for me lately" business and constantly sitting out free agency while touting prospects isn't the best way to capture the attention of a fanbase with a short attention span.
Thanks, you're right, we're not all that far apart.
I agree with your last couple sentences, (with the caveat that I'm not even sure what the current strategy is yet, post-Bloom and under Breslow) 100%.
One of the things I'm fascinated to see is which prospects they will be willing to part with if any of the trades they're looking into pan out, and for what. One thing that may be different is that Breslow didn't have anything to do with drafting these kids, so unlike Bloom they're not his handiwork and the attachment is no where near as personal.
I agree with your last couple sentences, (with the caveat that I'm not even sure what the current strategy is yet, post-Bloom and under Breslow) 100%.
As the first sentence of your post indicated, they made several moves already this winter, acquiring a RHH RF (O'Neill), moving Verdugo (possible issues with Cora), acquiring a RHH 2B (Grissom) for Sale (clearly polarizing for some fans), and acquiring one of the best SP they actually could have signed in Giolito.* They even jumped out and got him relatively early. Which is now being spun as some kind of fail or something.
So I don't really think it's about the attention span of good faith fans. I think it's about people trying to doggedly frame a narrative.
*From way back on Dec. 30th:
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