Not a damn rumor of consequence this week. A couple of signings - but it continues to be absolute crickets - and yes I am being impatient.
Offseason rumors
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Is it a reach to add?
to free agents that are not worth the risk of investment and/or do not improve the team in the mid to long term
I mean… Teoscar for more than two year?
Smell and Montgomery still haven’t signed. I’m confident they would have signed YY, the one potential difference maker to more than two years.
I guess I’m just irrationally happy we traded for Grissom versus signing Whit Merrifield.
* are Twitter posts considered data point?
We simply don’t have the full picture until Montgomery/Snell sign. Until then, I think it’s reasonable to take either side of this argument. I refuse to believe that the Sox aren’t “in” on Montgomery to some extent. He just makes too much sense. I wouldn’t be shocked if they’re already “out” on Snell. And I wouldn’t be upset about it. At this point, a meaningful trade feels unlikely so I do think it’s reasonable to wonder if all the material moves have been made. Still time but…the clock is ticking.
He didn't say much. A lot of "we're not at the point where we should be trading future wins for current wins". Which I agree with. Said they wanted a RH bat with positional flexibility. My math on that is: RH bat + positional flexibility + willing to sign a one year deal = can't hit.
I would love to be wrong but really think people may be clinging on to hope in thinking the Sox are seriously in on Montgomery. I did not interpret Breslow's comments as some sort of 4D chess with Boras. We've now heard plenty of indications, both direct and indirect sources, that the Sox are unlikely to land a big FA. I see Breslow's increased press presence to be a sort of damage control for some combination of Sox being more or less done (maybe a RH bat, maybe a starter but nothing impactful) and/or resetting expectations in advance of the winter weekend. Again, I'd love to see some competitive baseball through September (and hopefully October) so I would love to see Montgomery or Snell, I just do not have my hopes up based on all recent indications.
Edit - if Montgomery or Snell's price comes down enough (which I think needs to be on years side more than AAV), sure the Sox may become 'serious' bidders but so will other teams that are not currently interested and I see no sign that suddenly the Sox are going to outspend teams on one of these big FAs.
Edit - if Montgomery or Snell's price comes down enough (which I think needs to be on years side more than AAV), sure the Sox may become 'serious' bidders but so will other teams that are not currently interested and I see no sign that suddenly the Sox are going to outspend teams on one of these big FAs.
I was curious so I listened. The host is a bit odd/rambly. He thinks the Sox "always got their guy" back in the day. And then he talks about Teixeira. (?).
Breslow comes across as just. . .normal. Sensible.
He wants to win (now), but is not willing to be stampeded into an irresponsible acquisition.
He's willing to sign FAs, and has negotiated with them, but it just hasn't worked out yet.
He's willing to trade, but does not want to be short-sighted re: trades. "Don't sacrifice future wins for 2024 exclusively."
He's clearly not tipping his hand, but he's also clearly open to any sensible avenue to improve the team now, but not in a way that's short-sightedly "just now."
On YY directly he thinks they made a positive impression. He's the kind of player they want to be targeting. Some of it was in their control, and some just wasn't.
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I can't say it's "required listening." But if you're opining about "what the Sox are doing, writ-large" I think it is pretty close to it.
He sets out his rationale for how he's approaching things. People may disagree, or think he's lying (or whatever.)
But I think it's really the starting point a number of people here need to address.
You're just letting yourself get trolled by Scott Boras.
It's the reason he has his guys hold out until just before Spring Training every year. He WANTS the fanbases to get riled up and impatient, desperate even...so that he can extract maximum dollars. I don't think this current ownership group has ever wanted to play this game, but with a few players they were forced to. When they can avoid, it seems like they do.
I think it’s pretty clear that Craig isn’t going to sign a FA unless it’s a relative bargain for the team, in terms of total dollars and years. He seems to be targeting guys that may be undervalued due to performance or injury (Giolito, O’Neill.) I would like to see him work on extending Bello and Casas now, as opposed to waiting as their value increases down the road.
I would imagine that every fan of every team that has been in on Snell and/or Montgomery is frustrated. They have to sign with SOMEBODY, and currently, nobody knows who that someone is. The Sox are not more unlikely to sign those two than any other team that has gawked at the numbers. There's nothing to do but wait. And hell yes I'm frustrated. But we still just need to wait.
The only scenario in which I see Snell or Montgomery signing here is if they decide to take short term deal in attempt to re-enter free agency when there are more suitors.
I think you should listen to the podcast. They were in on YY. So clearly they're willing to sign a FA that isn't a bargain, provided it's the right FA.
I did and you’re correct. I should have phrased it as post-YY pursuit. I don’t think there are any other free agents that meet the criteria of being young and in their prime left. Breslow would rather be patient instead of jumping in on Snell or Montgomery. He’s going to wait for the right time to sign someone to a big deal, just not this year. In the mean time, go after any value that is out there that could help bridge that gap.
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I can't listen to the podcast at work, so I'll direct this to @Rovin Romine and @moondog80 but really it's for anyone else that listened.
I truly understand where Breslow is coming from regarding trading future wins for current wins. So as someone that has kind of come to a(n incredibly grudging) acceptance that the rotation is going to stink and therefore the 2024 season has very little chance of being consequential in terms of wins and losses, did he give any indication as to openness to the idea of the converse (to trade current wins for future ones) or insight into that kind of thought process.
I truly understand where Breslow is coming from regarding trading future wins for current wins. So as someone that has kind of come to a(n incredibly grudging) acceptance that the rotation is going to stink and therefore the 2024 season has very little chance of being consequential in terms of wins and losses, did he give any indication as to openness to the idea of the converse (to trade current wins for future ones) or insight into that kind of thought process.
Unfortunately Craig walked into a situation where a lot of fans are already tired of the way things have been going and not in the mood to stay patient for an indefinite period.
And the perfect free agents just don't come along very often.
That could be true. Or not. We guess, we just don't know. But even that kind of signing shows that there is a path.
I interpreted Breslow's podcast comments as that he thinks it's a year or two early to pay a premium for a Montgomery/Snell type FA or trade target. They were in on Yamamoto and probably thought they had a decent shot at him.
A few quotes in response to questions about willingness to spend/aggressively outbid the market for impact FAs:
A few quotes in response to questions about willingness to spend/aggressively outbid the market for impact FAs:
- "We haven't lined up on that impact free agent to date... but I think the most important thing to say is that that's not necessarily going to be predictive of behavior going forward."
- "I also think there's a timing component... Balance where we are, where our core is."
- "Timing didn't work out so far but worth reiterating that this isn't predictive or indicative of how we intend to operate going forward."
- "Being in the same place a year or two from now [in terms of their relative prioritization of long-term wins vs short-term wins] would be a failure and fans should hold us accountable to that."
- "I think that we were competitive I think that we put our best foot forward."
- Said they were proud of their presentation, disappointed in outcome.
- Mentioned that in that situation some things are in their control but a lot of it is not.
- "That's the right type of player we should be targeting."
This is very much the sense I get, and I think it is wise.
As I posted earlier, the market has changed where the competition and prices for free agents is higher and riskier than ever. I think the Sox know that teams can't afford to make a mistake on these 9 figure free agent contracts, and that doing so is one of the easiest ways to hamstring yourself. They tried with YY, but given his preferences they never really had a chance. They will keep trying with guys like him, who are younger, or where the long term risk is mitigated by other factors.
I think that Breslow was pretty clear that a time will come when they trade future wins for current wins. He didn't put a specific time-table on it, but it seemed to align on his thoughts about player development.
The least conspiracy-minded way to read that is simply that if the younger players improve and hold their own, they're going to get to a window sooner rather than later. (And the more that develop, the more pieces they'll have to potentially trade.)
However, I'd personally imagine one of those times would be acquiring pieces mid-season to help the team make a run if they're in the mix. (Obviously a different calculation if they face-plant out of the gate.)
"That's the right type of player we should be targeting" is not very reassuring, considering a) how rare a Yamamoto is, and b) the fact that the Red Sox realistically had very little chance of signing him. Even if you took the Dodgers out of the picture the Sox would have had to outbid both Cohen and Steinbrenner.
That's kinda projecting what your feelings are about the rotation onto Breslow, no? Why would he indicate that at all in any sort of way in an interview if he believes what you believe anyhow?
He's indicating that he's comfortable with the group of pitchers that could be starters. I'd rather hear that than anything else whether you agree with him or not. Show some confidence in the team!
25 year old free agents don't come along often...and when they do, everyone will be interested, which will keep pushing the price up. That price will likely be very high and out of FSG's comfort zone.
If YY is the only type of free agent that the brain trust feels comfortable spending on, then there won't be any premium free agents signed
I interpreted that as YY was the right type for them to be targeting this offseason due to his age. Whereas a Snell or Montgomery may be the right type of free agent to target a year or two from now.
Thanks @Rovin Romine - to be clear, I didn't take that to mean he'd never do it, just that I can understand why he doesn't think right now is the time. Should have been more clear on that.
To your point @Sandy Leon Trotsky, of course he's not going to come out and say "these guys stink, no wonder I can't get anyone to take them" (and I'm not saying that it's true, I'm saying of course he couldn't say it). My question was more if Breslow expressed in the interview any interest he might be dealing with and openness to trading current ones for future ones.
Just like he couldn't say "of course I'm moving Alex Verdugo" but whenever his name came up there was always the discussion of interest in the player and making moves that would be in the long term best interest of the Red Sox (or, trading current wins for future wins) and I'm wondering if there was any tone or inclination toward that.
To your point @Sandy Leon Trotsky, of course he's not going to come out and say "these guys stink, no wonder I can't get anyone to take them" (and I'm not saying that it's true, I'm saying of course he couldn't say it). My question was more if Breslow expressed in the interview any interest he might be dealing with and openness to trading current ones for future ones.
Just like he couldn't say "of course I'm moving Alex Verdugo" but whenever his name came up there was always the discussion of interest in the player and making moves that would be in the long term best interest of the Red Sox (or, trading current wins for future wins) and I'm wondering if there was any tone or inclination toward that.
Agreed, "Competitive" probably means the Sox offered him 6/180 lol I really don't buy that we were competitive at all in trying to sign Yamamoto.
Like I would bet a ton of money that we weren't even close to the Dodgers offer. And as GM of the Red Sox you have to understand that we'd have to outbid the Dodgers by a solid margin to have a decent chance at signing him, as the Dodgers are just a much more attractive team to potential FAs because they've proven they're much more committed to winning than the Red Sox.
Yeah, sorry I don't mean to be a stickler here but I definitely haven't seen any of those reporters say "explicitly" that they won't offer contracts of more than two years (I don't follow Carrabis and he's not a reporter, but I scrolled the last three weeks of his posts and didn't see anything like it), and their widely reported interest in Yamamoto and Jordan Montgomery directly contradicts that.
Cotillo and/or McAdam have surmised that the Red Sox have a policy of not offering more than two years in their weird string of speculative reports the last month plus — which is basically Red Sox-themed QAnon at this point — but they're just reading tea leaves based on reports of offers to Teoscar (multiple reports of a 2/$28M offer) and Imanaga (reportedly two years guaranteed plus two years of incentives).
I'm not trying to be argumentative. My most genuine, good faith read is that Breslow is certainly willing to offer long-term contracts to the right player(s), but that doesn't mean everyone. I'd have personally gone three on Teoscar but that doesn't mean I'm right or that Breslow is disallowed from doing so. We have to divine some policy that isn't there.
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I really still do not get this. I mean I get it, but I don't get it at the exclusion of considering any other possible world.
I understand the pessimistic case for the rotation: Bello doesn't improve, Crawford's about the same, Giolito stinks up the joint again, Pivetta reverts to the 4.5-5 ERA guy we knew and hated, and no one emerges from the pack of Houck-Whitlock-Fitts to join the rotation.
But the optimistic case is legitimate and should be taken seriously. Bello has the stuff to make a leap to be a #1-#2, he just needs to switch up his pitch mix and find a reliable third pitch. He's young enough to do so. Crawford got a lot of exposure as a starter and could put up 150 innings of 4-4.5 ERA ball. That's a valuable pitcher. Pivetta appears to have found a legitimate weapon in his sweeper that's an even better pitch than his curveball. Giolito has a very good chance of finding his stride and being a 3.5-4 ERA guy again.
If you want to dismiss me, go look at the Orioles rotation, or the Rays. Look at the first few seasons Zach Eflin, Tyler Glasnow, and Kyle Bradish put up. Look at what Bradish did just two years ago. Or Tyler Wells, for that matter. Dean Kremer put up a 7.55 ERA in 13 starts in 2021.
If you don't believe Crawford, Bello, et al can make the leap those guys did, that's your prerogative, but it goes against any reasonable probabilistic forecasting. You don't have to believe it will happen, but you should believe it can. Young pitchers get better all the time in the big leagues, and it very well may happen here.
And like I say, even if the Dodgers weren't in, do we really think Henry was going to go toe to toe with Cohen and Steinbrenner? Cohen was the one who first made the offer of 12/325, and he was disappointed he didn't get a chance to up that bid.
There's a fine line between confidence and delusion.
You can't seriously look at the results of last season and be comfortable with our potential starters when the only change is the replacement of Sale with Giolito. It would be insane to go into next year without making at least 1 more addition to the rotation unless you're not really serious about winning.
I think you should probably listen to the podcast with Breslow. He said they were competitive.
You're free to conclude that he's publicly lying to everyone, but if so I think we'd all like to know why.
Which is why I qualified what I said with "younger", and "risk is mitigated by other factors". I understand that YY was a rare opportunity, one where the risk of paying for past performance was even lower.
“Competitive” can mean different things to different people though. All we know is that Breslow thought they were competitive. And I take him at his word on that. But we don’t really know if Yamamoto’s side viewed it the same way. We’ll likely never get confirmation on the latter so it’s all speculation at this point.
This is where I am at. So we'll be competitive on unicorns that everyone will want and historically the Red Sox never end up with. And it also sounds like we're likely punting on 2024 unless literally, everything breaks right on health and performance.
We have to take him at face value at this point since he’s so new to the position. It could very well be he made a strong financial offer but in the end, Yamato wanted to play on the west coast and for a contender.
@ehaz - thank you for this summary.
We can assume they made an offer but we don't really know if it was truly competitive. For some that latter part may not be important but from where I sit its the most important thing in trying to determine what direction this ball club is headed.
None of this says they were actually "in" on YY. It just confirms that they made an offer *they* thought was competitive - it says nothing about how that offer looked versus the competition. I don't want to rehash the various media reports because that window has closed and everyone has an axe. We just need to avoid accepting some narrative as a fact.
We can assume they made an offer but we don't really know if it was truly competitive. For some that latter part may not be important but from where I sit its the most important thing in trying to determine what direction this ball club is headed.
As of right now, this looks to be a 75-80 win team on paper. They might over achieve and finish over .500. Or it could be a disaster, who knows. They have to develop more pitching internally. They acquired Fitts, and they have the draft. Who else? Does this fit with the idea they can compete when the young studs come up? That seems to be the time frame to make a big splash in free agency.
It's likely if the numbers were published, for some the argument would pivot to "But how can we really know those published numbers are true?"
In fairness we can't. We can't ever really know anything when humans are involved. We only assume our MD actually has a degree. We only assume the mechanic fills the pan with new oil and not old. We only assume the people who say they love us actually do.
But we also make reasonable conclusions about how likely our assumptions are to be correct based on someone's character, experience, ability, and record for truthfulness.
We're also free to change our opinions and to think, "Hey, now that I know this, my perspective on something has changed." Traditionally, that kind of flexible rationality, withholding judgment, and weighing the facts, were all considered aspirational (and manly) virtues.
Here, I think it takes a certain kind of contemporary mind-set to triple down on the idea that Breslow is either a liar or completely incompetent.
But liar or completely incompetent aren’t the only possibilities here. Sometimes, you can just miscalculate the market and that wouldn’t make you a liar or completely incompetent. I don’t really see Yamamoto as a good example to judge Breslow’s free agency acumen anyways because the Sox likely never had a real shot here even if they increased their offer by X%.
For me, Montgomery is a much better data point and that’s the one I’ll be interested in seeing.
I don't really need to know the exact offer. I'm confident they didn't go through all the trouble (and put Yamamoto and his agent through it all) as some sort of charade. Yamamoto had many suitors and could only pick one. More concerning to me is that they haven't been able to find a way to use their financial resources in a way that would not jeopardize their future.
As for Montgomery, I don't know how much more clear he could have been that barring some sort of major change in the asking price, that isn't happening.
As for Montgomery, I don't know how much more clear he could have been that barring some sort of major change in the asking price, that isn't happening.
Don't think so. Mets offer and Yankees offer were publicized and no one questioned them.
I don't dismiss anyone at all. That would be conceit at it's worst, not my proverbial bag.
The Orioles are a good example though of why I think the Sox should sell (if possible) before the season if they enter with the rotation they have.
To be clear, I think Bello is presently what I'll call an SP2 (just for ease of typing), Crawford is SP4/5 and Pivetta is SP4/5. Could Bello get better - of course. If we're going to assume Bello will get better, we have to assume the same for Bradish. If we assume Crawford can become an SP3, we have to assume the same of Kramer since they're both going into their age 28 season. The Red Sox have no Grasyon Rodriguez but I think we have to assume he is going to live up to his prospect pedigree if we're going to assume improvement from pitchers that were lesser prospects. If one wants to assume Winckowski could become a decent starter based on his relief appearances, wouldn't it be incredibly unfair not to assume the same of the younger and more highly regarded DL Hall.
I won't bother to go through the line up because the two aren't close, but suffice it to say just as an example that whatever improvement we project for Casas (which is fair) we have to assume the same for Gunnar Henderson.
The delta between the Sox and the playoff contending teams (Baltimore, Toronto, Houston, Texas, Seattle and Tampa) was pretty extreme, and the summation of moves the Sox have made to improve on that delta is getting a better 2b (which is great, but we're not exactly talking Grissom being worth 10 wins - the difference between the Sox and Seattle, who missed the playoffs).
Even when you look at the team the Sox were "closest" too (New York) they added Soto and Verdugo. If we're going to assume the Sox won't be ravaged by injuries, we have to assume the same for the Yanks (meaning they get back Rodon and Cortes). If we assume Crawford improves, we have to assume the same for Clark Schmidt.
Even if the players in question for the Sox make improvements (entirely possible) we need to assume the same for similar players (with better pedigree) on other teams or we're not being consistent.
Which is why I think the Sox should sell players that won't be here in 2025 and beyond now (Jansen, Martin, Pivetta if not extended), etc.
At a certain level, I'd even get the idea of going in with a rotation of Bello, Gio, Crawford, Houck, Winckowski and Whitlock if for no other reason than to see if in 2025 you need to get 3 additions to the rotation (or 4...or 1...). But you should still sell off those older assets rather than waste them (the way Duvall, Turner and Paxton were wasted last year, for instance).
This is a solid post. If you were to go back and read some of the posts at this time last year, a lot of people wanted to run Pivetta out of town. Now if we don't extend him, we have to trade him? He pitched good to great for 4 and a half months last year after adding the sweeper. I don't recall many people giving Crawford the time of day on here last year. Now he is penciled in as a surefire SP this year, and only one of two guys in the 2025 rotation. Relax folks. This offseason isn't done yet. No one has thrown a single pitch in the 2024 season. They brought in a whole new pitching team and hopefully a philosophy in the offseason. There will be many, many moves between now and 2025 or 2026. Yes, I would've liked Imanaga and/or Stroman for what they signed for. They will sign someone else because they need more (quality) innnings. I just don't see the need to project, in a vaccum so far down the road when Breslow has literally been on the job for 2 months.
The problem with this discussion is that most of us are admitting that we really don't know what the Sox strategy is but there are some who seem certain they understand - that's why we get the binary outcomes being presented to you. I don't know anything about Craig Breslow's character but I could easily see him massaging certain statements for public consumption given his role because he is highly incentivized to do so. That doesn't make him dishonest.
Alternatively, maybe the Sox really did want YY and misread his market - that also doesn't make Breslow a liar but its not a ringing endorsement of their ability to get things done. Furthermore, if this was what happened Breslow needs to spin that too. Would anyone here be happy to find out that the Boston Red Sox actually didn't know what it would take?
In the end, there are a number of reasons why we may not get a truthful accounting of how the YY transaction went down. However most reading here are adults and understand that when someone shares a story around a business transaction, you are getting a biased version of events that often is rationalizing the outcome. That doesn't make the narrator unreliable - its just someone trying to do their job.
me personally? I want Montgomery…. But as a Gm speaking publicly you want to express complete 100% confidence in the group you have…. However you may actually feel.
And I still think when the bell rings one of Snell or Montgomery will be on the team
But they are. The question is whether they were competitive with their offer to YY, or whether they were not competitive. Flat out.
Breslow said they were competitive for YY. There's not really any reasonable way to interpret his responses. His answer was not remotely consistent -in any way- with "we miscalculated the market."
Where does that place Breslow? Either he's telling the truth, or he's lying, or he's so incompetent he has no idea of what actually happened.
You don't get to have it both ways.
I haven't had a chance to listen yet, so forgive me if there are specific details that he addressed regarding Montgomery that make this post moot, but I have to think that "asking price" in this instance isn't just dollars, but length as well.
I've said repeatedly that no free agent that the Sox haven't signed yet has really diappointed me, but Montgomery would be the first. It just seems so logical given where they are right now.
Even saying that, though, I don't think I'd want to go more than four years with maybe a fifth year option. If someone's giving him six, I'm not sure I want it to be the Sox.
I really would love it if they make the top bid on a four year deal though.
I can't speak to other people, but I have never been one that wants to run Pivetta out of town. In fact, I'm pretty sure last year I said I banked on him more than I did Paxton or Sale, and that I'd have been happy to have two of him (and hey, we got another in Kutter Crawford - awesome!). I still feel that way. I think what he is already (dependable SP4/5) is incredibly valuable for a team like the Red Sox. The difference between Pivetta (now) and someone like Houck/Crawford etc is years of control. If Crawford had one year left, I'd be saying to extend him or trade him, but he's here until 2028 (I believe) and Pivetta for one year.
So yes, I think Breslow should make a call now. If he believes in him, extend him. If he does not, deal him while it's a seller's market for pitching and get a pitching prospect from another system that he believes in for the long term.
As an example - I don't think Josh Winckowski is ever going to be anything more than a decentish set up guy (which is fine, and valuable enough). Could he go Kutter Crawford - sure. Could he go Whitlock and get hurt - sure. Could he go Ryan Brasier and oscillate between being pretty good and worthless on a year to year basis, yep. Could he become Junichi Tazawa - of course. Could he become Darwinzon Hernandez, easily. All those things are in play. Buuuuuuut - since he's cheap and under control for the next 5 years, I wouldn't advocate trading him now unless it's for something really good (as in, would I trade him as part of a package to get someone like Max Meyer, yes. Would I trade him for an A ball starting pitching prospect the way I would someone that won't be here in 2025+, not a chance).
To be clear, I certainly didn't expect Breslow to come out and say "our rotation sucks". I was curious if he talked about being open to the idea of trading current wins for future wins (or the converse of not being in a position to trade future wins for current wins). It would be moronic for a GM to come out and say he doesn't believe in his team, there is literally no upside to that. I mean I'd bet Bill Forbes knows the Rox aren't going anywhere, it's not like he should come out and say they suck. You'd have to be all kinds of out of touch to be a GM and say you don't believe in your team.
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So what's the definition of competitive in this case? The original projection was $225 mill. Maybe the Sox were willing to go as high as $250 mill. That was well short, but might still be deemed as competitive, since it was more than originally projected.
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