Offseason rumors
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JM is not taking a pillow deal. Players sign those coming off a bad year, not when they had a good year capped by a playoff run. It seems like it would be exceptionally foolish for a pitcher to risk injury and then potentially go back into the market with a QO attached.
JM is in the best possible position he could be and I think is taking the best deal he can get.
Well, obviously there are unsigned free agents, not sure why I have to even bring that up. As for signing Cease, your point is that if they stink (at pitching) they won't make a move for a guy like him? Trades happen in-season, especially as top players approach free agency. Breslow is either doing nothing or waiting for the prices to come down. Which one it is, we don't know yet. And that's just the roster-additions part. Clearly they have some plan for getting more out of the guys they already have, which any good team does, especially with younger players. I'll wait to see what that looks like too before giving up on the entire season.
Not saying that Verdugo is a lock for gold glove this year, but he was great last year and he at least has been good at staying on the field (3 straight seasons of 600 PA or more) throughout his career. O''Neil, who is supposed to be his replacement in the OF, doesn't have that skill, as he's been one of the more injury prone players in the majors throughout his career. In his six seasons he has been above 400 PAs once.
Story is the only sure thing about this defense, but unfortunately he's nearly as injury prone as O'Neil. 3 of his last 4 seasons he's had less than 400 PAs.
All this team needs is an injury to Story, and Rafaela failing to adjust to major league pitching and they could actually be worse in the field this year than they were last year -when they were historically bad. The fact that neither of those possibilities is that unlikely is a bit scary and suggests the last thing this team needs to do is add a dedicated DH to the roster so players like Devers and Yoshida can get more time in the field.
Ultimately this was deferred contract money: maybe a better way to look at it is he got guaranteed 20m last year.
Ok, maybe it’s a combination of deferred money (the buyout) and an insurance policy for Turner (the option), but mostly it was about deferring some cash.
Don’t disagree on the facts, but he will if doesn’t find a team in the next two weeks.
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1752774664387002873?s=46&t=7XazH1NKZP26a4WUZikbkQ
.@Ken_Rosenthal on the Red Sox: "When I check on players and where they're going and who might be interested, I hardly ever hear their name. And that's what surprising to me."
.@Ken_Rosenthal on the Red Sox: "When I check on players and where they're going and who might be interested, I hardly ever hear their name. And that's what surprising to me."
I'm not trying to be a prick here, but when it comes to the bolded, if you think that the best way to properly evaluate the offseason is to wait until all of the dust settles, why are you posting? You're right, if the Sox somehow, someway sign Montgomery or Snell, then yes, everything that 90% of this board has written over the last three months will be rendered moot. But that's not what message boards and discussion forums are for. They're for talking about what's going on with, in this case the Boston Red Sox, right now. I don't think anyone has ever really done a postmortem thread on the offseason as a whole, but if you want to discuss what happened from October to mid-February while Spring Training is going on, that might not be a bad idea.
Right now, January 31, we're discussing the makeup of the 2024 Boston Red Sox with the information we have (along with some grasped straws) knowing that what we're talking about could very well change.
Bad teams usually don't trade for another bad team's good players in the season. Has it happened? I'm sure that it does. But the usual protocol is that a bad team will trade their good players to a good team for prospects. You rarely see a bad team (let's say the Red Sox are one) trade young players to another bad team (in this case the White Sox) for their best player. I'm not saying it never, ever happens but I can't think of a trade like that in the last 40 years. I could very well be wrong though.
I'm sure Breslow isn't doing nothing. But it seems to me that his hands are tied due to financial concerns from the ownership, so he's probably trying to figure out which dumpster that he has to dive into. And I'm not giving up on the season either, but I'm not going in with really high hopes.
So wait.... I don't think anyone is saying you can't post until the end of Spring Training and we know what the team will be. There's plenty to talk about regarding the direction of the team, the current make-up of the team, the holes in the team, the strengths of the team and seeing that there's still tons of time left for the plethora of Free Agents to find teams and for teams to find players by signing or trade and just to point that out when someone throws up their hands in frustration.
It takes talent and skills to both evaluate the team and to discuss the offseason and know that it's not over while also not losing one's mind over the FO not doing what they wanted
If you scroll back through this exchange, you asked if I agreed that this offseason was worse... I said I don't agree yet... here we are. I also think it's more subtle in that the evolution of the roster is a lot of moving parts, including ongoing conversations with other clubs and budget matters that involve planning for later moves. If Breslow has tried to say anything we can hang our hat on, it's his interest in trades, which take time and could very well still happen now or in June or next offseason, be it Cease or some other pitcher with a bit of control left, who Breslow will want to extend if he cashes in some chips for. So I don't agree with there being an end point that we should all acknowledge and comment on, or not talk about if we don't see it. If you want to talk specifically about where the roster is now, that's fine. This all started with me saying Bill Simmons doesn't know shit about baseball, as underlined by his Justin Turner freakout.
Can we pass judgement on the off-season after it's over? Or is that ill advised indefinitely because something else might happen later?
I am 100% in favor of people passing whatever judgment they want, whenever they think it's time to do so. Let's not confuse me expressing an opinion with somehow saying other people shouldn't have discussions that contradict my view.
Fair enough. But there has been a lot of responses to criticisms of the front office this off season along the lines of "just wait and see...lot of off-season left etc" I am somewhat sympathetic to this on the grounds that we don't really have any idea what shoe may drop soon, and are left to debate ambiguous thinly sourced reporting. But at the same time, doesn't this argument lapse when the off-season ends? I mean if they reduce payroll to 190-200M and do not make any other significant moves, I am not giving them a pass on a shitty off-season on the basis of "wait til the trade deadline or next off-season."
Of course. But the offseason doesn't end until Opening Day. Trevor Story didn't even sign until March 23, 2022.
You can say you think it looks bad now, but declaring this offseason worse than last year is like saying the 2004 season was worse than 2003 because the Red Sox were 10 games worse on July 30.
It’s amazing that despite not winning in 15 years, the Yankees are still a desirable place while the Sox in a 5 year streak are apparently not. The Sox ownership/GM are doing an absolutely terrible job in keeping Boston attractive at a very rapid clip.
Interesting example, Story, as he was still available so late only because he was damaged goods. Bloom and Co waited out the market, yay, which means they took the cheese. I can only guess 'winning' on WAR/AAV was so compelling they ignored an arm injury visible to the eye and a measurable decrease in arm strength.
Anyway, sorry I'm still a bit bitter about that, but ultimately most of the best things are off the shelf late in shopping season for a reason.
Wouldn't you agree that it's reasonable to wait on the signing of the two biggest non-Yamamoto free agent pitchers this off-season? Isn't there at least some chance that the decisions of Snell and Montgomery will have implications for what the Sox do or don't do prior to the start of the season?
That's good to see. He was not a good fit for the Sox. And the Sox would not have been a good fit for him. I think everyone made out well.
The only caveat is that if they've decided to go with internal options, we'd have to wait to see if those succeed or fail. For example, let's say they have an internal reason to think Abreu is a full-time OF at this point, or Houck won't implode the third time through the opposing lineup, or Story is going to hit again and help anchor the lineup. If they're right or wrong on any particular call, that probably won't really be manifest until a month in.
Presumably there will be good signs in spring training, but we need a reasonable sample size before we decide whether or not the internal option is working. And maybe in a rookie case like Abreu or Grissom, we need a couple hundred at-bats to separate the Dalbecs and the Casases.
But I think that the Houcks and Storys of the world don't get that long a leash. If they can't do what they've been tabbed to do more or less out of the gate, you can make a reasonable call that they should have been replaced or upgraded.
(And frankly, that internal assessment is where this club has had a very mixed bag in the past few years.)
So in any case, I don't think you'll have to wait till anywhere near the trade deadline to judge the team they put on the field.
You literally asked him what he was waiting for. He answered you.
What is the problem here?
Fair enough about your view on this offseason versus last years. I'm not trying to sway you one way or the other, both have kinda sucked. Though gun to my head, hearing that the Sox were going "Full throttle" from management only for that to turn into, "Actually what we meant was our payroll is going down compared to last year" is a tough pill to swallow. But YMMV and it's fine. There isn't any judgement on my part.
Well, sorta. I'm not sure how roster evolution can be "subtle" in that either the team either makes a transaction or it doesn't, this isn't a Schrodinger's cat situation here where a player is here or else he's property of another team (unless that player is Kevin Millar, but I digress). Breslow's trades this offseason have been pretty good, I've liked all three of them. That's a great start by him and I hope that he continues to make solid moves for the Sox. Like I said, if the Sox are in going all-in on a youth movement (and that's currently how they're selling it) then I don't see them trading one of MAT for Cease. Maybe they do (I certainly thought that they might back in November) but the way that all of the talking points from the Winter Carnival specifically mentioned those three players, I doubt it's happening. And if you want to get Cease from the White Sox, I think one of those dudes has to be there.
Also, I don't think that Simmons "freaked out" about Turner. I think that he, like a lot of people on this very board, are bummed that he left. I think that everyone understands that Justin Turner wasn't going to make that much of a difference. What hurts the Sox is that they apparently didn't even match the offer of one of their better offensive players from last year. Do I, personally, think that's a bad move? No. I'm not wild about signing any 39-year-old, but I can understand why someone might be bothered by it.
No problem here, officer. Just a couple of guys, a beautiful night, a bottle of Maddog 40/40 and a ready-for-anything goat.
My mood is changing by the day. I went from thinking they were in on both YY and Monty, to thinking they were punting a year to wait for the prospects, to just not being sure what is going on. I do not believe they are selling the team, but I am starting to have my doubts. It is probably just sports radio and the general down beat mood friends of mine have about the Red Sox, but something just doesn't feel right to me. My base case is a punt and then start building again, but I am starting to be open to the idea Henry has gotten older and is ready to cash out. At this point, we just have to see how 2024 plays out.
The stated goal is to acquire a RH bat who can play multiple positions. Seemed like most agreed that Turner was a good fit. Who do you like for this role?
If Turner was a good fit last year, why wasn’t he this year?
I will be honest if you look at it, this off season was better than last offseason. Grissom plus getting Fitts (who looks like he will be a solid reliever) is probably better than the Yoshida and the grab bag of one-off players that Bloom stubbornly held on to. I think the real problem is this was not the offseason the team needed to improve its lot in the world with a lot of lip service about being competitive. The Red Sox are not a competitive team. They may be an interesting team but they aren't built to win. They are built to surprise you with a wild card berth if everything breaks their way, and a loss of talent right afterward to take two more steps back with maybe a development step forward. There is nothing to suggest this team has anything but a puncher's chance to be relevant any time soon and some driftwood they need to figure out a way to get rid of with Story and Yoshida.
Edit - I might be a little too negative on Yoshida because of retrospect. Bloom overpaid for him which you knew at the time but I don't think the Red Sox outfield situation was nearly as strong as it is now. Not that they have an all time OF but it was way more of a flag last year this time.
He would essentially be playing a backup role here. He isn't really capable of playing multiple positions anymore, as his defense has regressed noticeably.
Last year he started 98 games at DH; 35 games at 1B; 7 games at 3B; and 4 games at 2B.
The position where he'd slot best--first base--has an incumbent who took it to a new level in the second half of last year and isn't going to be seeing many days off this year (barring injury). So he'd see far fewer games there this year. Devers isn't going to take many days off at third (barring injury). Turner got only 7 starts at third last year, so maybe that would have stayed the same here. And Breslow has said he doesn't want to tie DH with a single player--in fact, he made this statement in November in direct response to a query about the team bringing Turner back.
So where do you see Turner getting his at bats this year? He clearly wants to play and expects to play a lot: His deal with the Blue Jays includes $1.5 million in incentives. How would he hit those incentives here in Boston?
How is this any different than last year?
They added O'Neill but traded Verdugo. Other than that, all of the players are the same. Wouldn't he be slated to get the exact same load of AB's that he got last year? What has changed to the point you think he would somehow get his playing time drastically cut?
Last year they were the second worst defensive team of the Statcast era. Maybe they decided that wasn't a good thing and that one way they could address that is rotating the DH role among their bad fielders (particularly Yoshida and Devers). Luckily they happen to have a prospect who can play both OF and 3b who is seen as a potential gold glover (at least in the OF). Giving Turner's ABs to Rafaela may be a downgrade for the offense but it's a huge upgrade for the defense. It also creates ABs for a young prospect on a team that is clearly more and more focused on developing young prospects (as the trade for Grissom also shows).
Hopefully that’s because they already have one in Yoshida- and just want to talk to him about it before making it official. Seems clear, though, that they need another RH power bat regardless and Turner would have been fine, IMO.
Pretty much my stance exactly. Acquiring Grissom (while jettisoning Sale) and actually, doing something for the first time in 3 seasons to go get someone that is a top starting pitching prospect in the system and bringing in a controllable bullpen arm that is dirt cheap is more inspired than anything I've seen since probably the Pivetta acquisition, and it's not terribly close. At least in my opinion.
Granted, it's not perfect and I desperately want(ed) them to address MLB starting pitching for the medium to long term (which I've been begging for them to do for multiple seasons) and to this point it looks like they're not going to. But at least this off-season has been geared to a functional plan. Again, not great, but more like a B-/C+ off season than Ds I've gotten used to.
My observation was about the general trend of free agency or really most open markets, but since you ask, best guess because they’re asking more than the market currently wants to pay.
He could. They could want to give Casas some more time off or rotate more. I don't have strong feelings about Turner whatsoever but I definitely don't agree with the idea that he doesn't have a spot on this year's team or that he wouldn't be able to reach any incentives
Fine for what? If they only want an extra RH bat to back up 1b or pinch hit off the bench I doubt that is a position that Turner is interested in. Turner would want everyday ABs at the DH slot. That's not a good match for this team's needs.
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He was a perfect one season (maybe two) backup 1B for Casas if he struggled against LHP or pumpkined entirely. He was signed for one year, and the team had an option for two (if, again, Casas did nothing, it makes sense.) But at this point Turner is an insurance policy they no longer need.
He's 39 years old, and slow as hell. He was a liability at 3B last year, due to his range, but was averageish at 1B. Going forward, he's basically a dedicated DH at this point who can play some 1B.
What Turner can still possibly do is hit. IF he plateaus and does not decline, he'll repeat a .776 OPS against RHP, and a .900 against LHP. (Which is not nothing.)
So the question is, do the Sox want to pay $13M for him as a more or less dedicated RHH DH (who'd take the field to occasionally spell Casas, who they want to start regularly.)
The answer is No. Given that:
1) Breslow said he prefers not to have a dedicated DH roster spot.
2) Yoshida seems to slot well at DH for a large chunk of the time anyway, given our OF.
3) While picking up a RHB would be nice, we don't desperately need the RHB at this point either: O'Neill, Grissom, Story, Refsnyder, Reyes, Wong. (As opposed to the 2023 - Turner, Duval, Refsnyder, Reyes, Wong, (plus Story, Hernandez, Arroyo in the Ugh category.)
Duval makes more sense for any number of reasons, not the least of which is the fragility of O'Neill.
Do you at least see why a team who was -by far- the worst defensive team in baseball might not want a dedicated DH?
The team could have signed him but didn't. They clearly don't think that he'd be fine, which means he wouldn't have been able to reach his incentives here. I enjoyed him as a player. I'm happy that he'll be in a good situation next year. I don't think he was a fit here.
Did I miss an acquisition or two? If Yoshida is the DH, as he should be, than we’ve got an OF of Duran-O’Neill-Abreu, I guess? If they decide to play Yoshida in LF, who is getting those DH at bats? Dalbec? Refsnyder? That seems pretty weak too, and leaves the team incredibly vulnerable to injuries.
If the plan is to rotate the DH and use Rafaela as a super utility player, that’s one thing, but I hadn’t heard that and it doesn’t align with the stated goal of acquiring a RH power bat who can play multiple positions.
I completely understand that. I just think he could be a useful bench piece to fill in at DH/1B/3B (obviously in a massive pinch for the last one). Right now the line-up doesn't have much depth and he could help provide that.
Again, I don't care that much about Justin Turner. I understand not bringing him back at that price. I just don't buy the notion that he has no place on this team at all
If Red Sox are signing anyone to get the majority of their bats at DH they better be the 2nd best hitter on the team. Only guy who fits that is Soler. I’m still holding out hope they bring him on for 1-2 years
I'll give you the final word after this: The question isn't whether Turner could help this team in some capacity. Of course he can. RR just laid out how. The question is, does the role in which he helps this team in 2024 match up with what he's looking for in 2024? He's not looking to be a useful bench piece. He's looking to start regularly. There's not a path for him to do that here.
Presumably the team will need someone to backup 1b/3b. To those who don’t see Turner as a fit, is Soler or Duvall? It won’t be Turner, but seems like they will acquire someone like him. I can’t imagine this is the offensive roster they will go to camp with.
(Put more simply- where do we see Turner’s at bats from last year going?)
(Put more simply- where do we see Turner’s at bats from last year going?)
I do think that yes. Maybe at end of year he won’t be. But tomorrow he is.
edit: I did almost say he has to be better hitter than Yoshida. But still I think that only fits Soler of what’s available
edit: I did almost say he has to be better hitter than Yoshida. But still I think that only fits Soler of what’s available
Next offseason is going to be brutal for pitching in the free agent market. The Red Sox have a non zero chance to have the top two pitchers entering it.
To be fair, Soler’s OPS+ last year would have been second on the team behind Casas and just ahead of Devers.
By OPS+ he'd only have to be better than Devers. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2023.shtml
Unless you think Abreu is going to keep it up all year. Then it would be Casas.
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