Offseason rumors

[simplicio]

On another topic, thinking of the Soler deal…would we rather have Soler or Masa as is now?

They both seemed destined for DH and have little else to contribute…any preference?

Masa. He's never going to have Soler's power, but he's the more complete hitter and his remaining contract is age 30-33 instead of 32-34. Soler has also been really inconsistent in his career; last year was his first really good performance since 2019.

We'll be sad about things if Masa continues to hit the off switch four months into every season, but it doesn't seem unreasonable to project improvement in that area following his first MLB experience. If he can be that April-July guy for the whole year, his contract looks great.

 

[HfxBob]

While I agree with this, the actual reality of our current situation is an outrage beat. Masslive is mostly just capitalizing on the outrageous state that we're in.

"How much of our closer's salary should we eat" is not a conversation for a team that is "full throttle" or even pretending to contend in 2024. Masslive isn't having that conversation here, we are...in this thread. It should be provoking outrage.

I just read the piece by Smith in Masslive about the Jansen trade rumors and I fail to see any outrage in anything he said.

 

[bosockboy]

Willing to listen on players is relatively unique for a team to be doing in mid February, no? Of course- there could be a plan to do something with freed up salary given what players are still available. On the other hand, it’s still unclear as to why the team needs to free up money, given how far they are under thresholds we thought were important. Maybe it’s to save it all in a high yield savings account to lure Juan Soto next offseason.

Yes, if they wanted to move them this offseason there’s no reason it shouldn’t be already done. And they don’t need to move them to afford Montgomery.

Weird shit going on.

 

[simplicio]

Yes, if they wanted to move them this offseason there’s no reason it shouldn’t be already done. And they don’t need to move them to afford Montgomery.

Weird shit going on.

No reason except the fact that the whole offseason is moving like molasses league wide as a result of Boras holding up the top of the market.

 

[Salem's Lot]

I don't think it's quite that simple, because the fans, the paying customers, are in fact a large part of the profit equation for obvious reasons.

The ballpark is going to be mostly full anyway. It’s a tourist destination. They used to care about NESN ratings, but now with cord cutting, the RSN model that they used to make a killing on is in the tank. The only way that they’re going to keep profits increasing is to cut payroll and hope that after the real estate build out that they see some growth there. It sucks for us fans, but fans became a secondary concern the second they took the money from Redbird Capital.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

To be fair, neither Breslow nor anyone associated with baseball ops outside of possibly Kennedy (at least that I'm aware of) has ever mentioned anything about 2024 being a year they'd try to contend (obviously Werner strongly implied it and I believe Kennedy may have, but I'm not certain, and don't know if he's considered baseball ops, but so as not to get 20 Sam Kennedy quotes, I'll just assume he is and he did).

Sure, it might be a "fire sale" but lets also not pretend we're talking about selling off the 1997 Marlins here.


This is a MLB roster that has finished not only in last place in their division (admittedly a beast) but considerably out of the playoff picture the past two years. Personally, I'm actually glad that it doesn't seem like Breslow is under the belief that the organization as presently constructed at the upper levels (which I'll call MLB, AAA and AA to include prospects that are right on the cusp) is good enough that it should be held on to.



It's also not "adding around the edges" away from being close to contending. It's missing arguably the biggest thing necessary to win a title (unless you're the 2015 Royals) in an ace starting pitcher, as well as something else I'd at least personally consider in the top 5 ingredients (SP3). They have an SP2 (Bello) and two middle of the line up bats (Devers and Casas) but the roster around those players isn't particularly good.

The MLB roster isn't good. AAA isn't either and has no pitching prospects (possibly excepting Fitts if one wants to call him AAA). AA has two players that we're all very excited about, but have COMBINED for less than 20 games at AA and one starting pitching prospect - that isn't seen inside the top 100 prospects in the game by any site we're aware of.


I made a joke about it earlier in the off-season but I think that saying "the only things you're missing about being a playoff contender are two top half of the rotation starting pitchers" likely means that you're team kind of stinks. I mean, in that mindset, roster to roster, the Royals are about as close to contending as the Red Sox. I was hoping they'd go out and acquire 2 of guys like Nola, Yamamoto, Montgomery, Gilbert, Cease, etc this off-season. If they can't do that, they might as well sell because without adding two top half of the rotation pieces to go along with Bello, the team is going nowhere.

If Breslow can't add those two kind of starters, literally, anyone outside of Bello, Casas, Devers, Grissom, Anthony, Mayer and Teel should probably be actively shopped (if one wants to add Crawford to this group fine, but I put him far behind those other 7 pieces). The 2024 team is not Jorge Soler (or Adam Duvall) and Mike Lorenzen away from being a real contender for even WC1 or WC2, and without adding two top half of the rotation starters, it wasn't going to be.

It absolutely stinks and sucks and stinks to be in this position, but when you don't bother doing anything to address long term starting pitching for 3 seasons other than signing some international signees (and the only thing you do in 4 seasons is trade for Nick Pivetta) you're going to be bad.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Technically, I’m pretty sure every GM ‘’listens” on everything. I believe the fact that it’s out there we are ‘listening’ on all the back of the pen, and on Masa, and all OFs, etc is not business as usual.

Their only non-pre-arb area of surplus is the bullpen. They have two older players (Jansen and Martin) who are on expensive one-year contracts. Those, ideally, are the players you want to trade if your chance of contention this year is marginal. That's because they're unlikely to make the difference in contention this year, and they certainly won't next year. So, swap them for players/prospects over which you have more control, and/or reduce the salary commitments for this year.

Masa is pretty much a one-trick pony with a long contract. Of course you listen on him as well, especially with FA deals like Soler being thrown about. I mean, if a team like SF offered a prospect package for him, you'd have to listen.

Lastly, listening on all OFs does not mean they're seeking to trade each and every one of them. But it's probably a second (though slimmer) area from which to deal. Especially if they'd consider adding an OF in free agency, or are looking to acquire one in trade.

 

[nvalvo]

Which, rather than some form of heinous disinformation, might be true.

On another topic, thinking of the Soler deal…would we rather have Soler or Masa as is now?

They both seemed destined for DH and have little else to contribute…any preference?

I think I would rather have Masa at his remaining 4/$72 than Soler at 3/$42. Soler is two years older, so his deal takes him through his age 34 season, while Yoshida's takes him through age 33. Soler has elite power and more whiff to his game, Yoshida has elite contact and on-base skills. So OPS and OPS+ makes Soler look like the stronger bet, but wRC+ and wOBA values Masa's OBP appropriately, making them look much closer; from there, the age difference makes the decision for me.

In both cases, we're looking at a hitter with negative defensive value for whom we have to slice their recent performance to try to project them. For Yoshida, it's the first half/second half thing that we all understand; for Soler, it was that his strong 2023 was his first good year since 2019. If you look on Fangraphs, their projected wRC+ is very similar for next season: Soler is projected by the various systems at 106, 110, 114, 118, 120, 124, and 126; Yoshida at 110, 114, 116, 116, 116, 118, and 120.

 

[YTF]

This is where I am too. Every GM will listen on players. Very few are untouchable. It all depends on the package being offered.

I also agree with those who are saying that the Sox will probably eat some of salary for Jansen if the return is good enough.

Of course, it's all a matter of negotiation. "We're really not looking to send any money along in the deal, but if you're interested in Jansen for the entire season rather than waiting until the deadline when there may be interest from multiple teams then we would be willing to move from that position for player X, Y or Z."

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Are Yoshida’s on base skills really elite, though? He was average last year. He’s elite at not striking out but he actually doesn’t walk much at all. Or didn’t last year.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799

Soler’s profile is far more appealing.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jorge-soler-624585

Of course, we only have one year of MLB data on Yoshida.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I think I would rather have Masa at his remaining 4/$72 than Soler at 3/$42. Soler is two years older, so his deal takes him through his age 34 season, while Yoshida's takes him through age 33. Soler has elite power and more whiff to his game, Yoshida has elite contact and on-base skills. So OPS and OPS+ makes Soler look like the stronger bet, but wRC+ and wOBA values Masa's OBP appropriately, making them look much closer; from there, the age difference makes the decision for me.

In both cases, we're looking at a hitter with negative defensive value for whom we have to slice their recent performance to try to project them. For Yoshida, it's the first half/second half thing that we all understand; for Soler, it was that his strong 2023 was his first good year since 2019. If you look on Fangraphs, their projected wRC+ is very similar for next season: Soler is projected by the various systems at 106, 110, 114, 118, 120, 124, and 126; Yoshida at 110, 114, 116, 116, 116, 118, and 120.

In a vacuum, I agree. Yoshida is a better bet than Soler.

But the Sox OF and line up is incredibly LH heavy, as we all know. I didn't want (and wouldn't want) one year of Soler as the team is currently constructed. But if I could "trade" Yoshida at 4/$72m for Soler at 3/$42m (and of course $5m a year in room) I think I would. Just because I think that fits better with a line up that will include Devers, Casas, Duran and Abreu - and that your top OF prospect is, of course, a left handed batter.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Are Yoshida’s on base skills really elite, though? He was average last year. He’s elite at not striking out but he actually doesn’t walk much at all. Or didn’t last year.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799

Soler’s profile is far more appealing.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jorge-soler-624585

Of course, we only have one year of MLB data on Yoshida.

Yoshida walked 27 times pre-ASB for an OBP of .382. Post, it was 7 (in 100 fewer ABs) for .276.

In Japan, his OBP has been above .400 for the last 5+ seasons, and walking is a large component of that: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=yoshid002mas

His contract might be a little rich, but first-half Yoshida is, to my eye, more appealing than Soler. It's really just a question of which Yoshida we're going to get. While the interpreter has been replaced, the hitting coaches have not been.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/andreesbolivar/status/1757780626499846174?s=46


This return will be fascinating

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yoshida walked 27 times pre-ASB for an OBP of .382. Post, it was 7 (in 100 fewer ABs) for .276.

In Japan, his OBP has been above .400 for the last 5+ seasons, and walking is a large component of that: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=yoshid002mas

His contract might be a little rich, but first-half Yoshida is, to my eye, more appealing than Soler. It's really just a question of which Yoshida we're going to get. While the interpreter has been replaced, the hitting coaches have not been.

Yeah, how one feels about Yoshida’s future is really going to be based on how one explains his performance down the stretch, to what extent it was fatigue and to what extent it was the league adjusting to him (and of course, he can certainly adjust back). Will be an interesting player to watch this year; the team’s immediate future certainly looks much brighter if he’s the guy he was in the first half.

 

[TomRicardo]

Does Giolito win as many games as he loses ?

Probably not

Edit - The Sox trading top end relievers away makes sense if there is a return. That said the market should be better in July than now unless they fall off which I would think would be a bigger fear with Jansen.

Moving Whitlock to closer or ace reliever and give Mata a chance at leveraged relief. They have a ton of bullpen arms to throw at the wall and to see who sticks.

 

[moondog80]

Soler 3 years 14 AAV vs Yoshida 4 years 18.6 AAV in interesting. My guess is if you asked all 30 teams, you would not get a unanimous answer. So it's close.

 

[billy ashley]

Soler 3 years 14 AAV vs Yoshida 4 years 18.6 AAV in interesting. My guess is if you asked all 30 teams, you would not get a unanimous answer. So it's close.

I'd want no part of that Soler deal. He was a good DH last season, but his wRC+ hovered around 100 the three years prior.

Yoshida is almost certainly a better fielder (though he's pretty bad - but Fenway makes it look worse).

Basically, Soler is a guy who is a decent DH when 20% of his flyballs are leaving the yard. His career rate over his career 19.8. Over the past 4 seasons, he's hit that mark twice.

It's a coinflip that he'll be an acceptable DH and he can't play the field. Yoshida probably has more offensive upside and also can play LF (poorly).

 

[Rovin Romine]

Yeah, how one feels about Yoshida’s future is really going to be based on how one explains his performance down the stretch, to what extent it was fatigue and to what extent it was the league adjusting to him (and of course, he can certainly adjust back). Will be an interesting player to watch this year; the team’s immediate future certainly looks much brighter if he’s the guy he was in the first half.

Well, it was widely reported as fatigue, so I'm willing to accept that's a large component of it. And by "fatigue" I read not only physical fatigue of a longer schedule, but his first year being apart from his family in a foreign culture, and on a team that kind of fell apart after the trade deadline. So maybe you get a bit hacky in a few ABs in Kansas City or wherever.

I tend to think that "adjustments" would have hit him earlier than August. . .but we can't really rule it out.

The case for him is that he was very good for more than half the season (April through July) - https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=yoshima02&year=2023&t=b If he was just average instead of falling off a cliff for two months, we'd be having a different conversation about him, I think.

I'm not sure there's a case against, beyond the bad performance itself. But it's hard to drill down on anything specific in that performance. I wish we had more sortable granularity to the public data though. I mean, if he was never very good against a particular pitch, and then just started seeing more of them, I'd have a stronger concern. FWIW, I took a look last year through savant, and didn't see anything that really jumped out at me. It seemed as if it was just generally poorer hitting across the board. But it's very back-of-the-envelope stuff. If someone sorted the data and found something, I'd certainly revise my opinion on him.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

From the Speier article:

The Sox also have been getting calls about some of their young outfielders, including Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, along with infielder David Hamilton. Sources confirmed that the Padres have been among several teams calling about Duran.

I like Hamilton okay, but if someone offered us a minor leaguer who doesn't have to be on the 40-man for him, then we should take it.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Probably not

But have you factored in the chance for a catastrophic ST injury resulting in 0-0 record?

 

[moondog80]

From the Speier article:


I like Hamilton okay, but if someone offered us a minor leaguer who doesn't have to be on the 40-man for him, then we should take it.

Hamilton is 26, can't field well enough to play a key position and can't hit well enough to play a non-key position. If they traded him for cash I wouldn't blink.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Willing to listen on players is relatively unique for a team to be doing in mid February, no? Of course- there could be a plan to do something with freed up salary given what players are still available. On the other hand, it’s still unclear as to why the team needs to free up money, given how far they are under thresholds we thought were important. Maybe it’s to save it all in a high yield savings account to lure Juan Soto next offseason.

I don't think it's unique to be doing it in mid-February. GMs likely take calls on or listen to offers on players year round (maybe they get a reprieve from August through September when there is no trading). What may be unique is the way this off-season has progressed (or not) across the league, and the media is having to dig deeper or stretch harder to fill column space. Maybe some of this news is only news because there isn't anything more interesting to talk about. Also, with the free agents who remain unsigned and the effect that is possibly having on trade markets, it might be foolish to not remain open to making significant moves even as training camps open.

 

[allmanbro]

I think it’s pretty simple, they need ROI for their investors. It’s pretty hard for Kennedy to walk into that room next November and say “I know you guys were expecting x% profit growth this year, but we signed a bunch of guys that we thought would really help us, sure we still finished last, but we tried!”

They’re like any other big business in this country right now. Shareholders not only expect profit but massive profit growth year over year.

Kennedy has a fiduciary obligation to the shareholders, not the fans. So unless or until Breslow can build a good young team where there is profit potential, it’s going to be difficult for Kennedy to justify huge expenditures. Hell, I’m sure the construction of the development that they’re building around the ballpark is considered the same pot as far as Redbird and the other partners are concerned. That’s probably eating into what they’re allowed to spend as well.

There is a possible "pure baseball" reason they might end up well below the threshold this year: If they want at least a certain amount of salary room to play with in 25-26, they need to make sure the commitments out that far are low enough. If, then, The people who are actually willing to take one or two year deals are not any better than what you have, there is no point to signing those guys. So, you end up well under the cap for this year.

 

[allmanbro]

I think it’s pretty well established that they’re in a rebuilding year. Probably year 1 of a multi year rebuild considering that they just had to fire their GM and bring in a new guy.

I’m sure they will be looking to move any veterans for prospects but feel that the offers on those guys will be better at the deadline.

Ya. In fact, I think it's been pretty clear they have been rebuilding since they hired Bloom in the first place, just not a full-tank rebuild. Since 2019, the priorities have been (in order of importance):
1. Rebuild the farm
2. Stay on the fringes of contention (without sacrificing future value).
It's not impossible to do both, though it is very hard, so this makes some sense as a strategy. But this all looks bad now because a couple things went wrong with (2). First, it turned out Chaim wasn't all that good at that task (if reports are to be believed, he was not good at negotiating/pulling the trigger on trades, and seemingly not that great at evaluating MLB talent overall). Second, the rest of the division went nuts which made it that much harder to stay in contention. So then Breslow is brought in not as a major shift in strategy, but to continue basically the same approach, with a different evaluator/negotiator at the helm, and perhaps some changes in emphasis, most obviously more pitching.

All this is to say, I have found the level of outrage and bewilderment at the moves and nonmoves this year to be a bit over the top. It isn't really a deep mystery what they are doing. Arguably, the FO has overstated the importance of priority 2 a bit in their messaging at a few points. This has made fan reactions worse, but I do think it's understandable that they would really want to emphasize that they are not going full teardown/tank.

And this does still leave room for potentially signing Montgomery, if that deal fits the criterion of staying on the fringes of contention without sacrificing the future.

 

[moondog80]

There is a possible "pure baseball" reason they might end up well below the threshold this year: If they want at least a certain amount of salary room to play with in 25-26, they need to make sure the commitments out that far are low enough. If, then, The people who are actually willing to take one or two year deals are not any better than what you have, there is no point to signing those guys. So, you end up well under the cap for this year.

Then make a deal where you buy prospects by taking on some $$. Or pay more of Sale's deal and get another piece back from Atlanta.

 

[nighthob]

Willing to listen on players is relatively unique for a team to be doing in mid February, no?

No. Teams pretty much do it year round. Because even during spring training teams see their weaknesses and are calling around to shore them up. What it really is is a slow story period in a major media market starved for any news they can get.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

No. Teams pretty much do it year round. Because even during spring training teams see their weaknesses and are calling around to shore them up. What it really is is a slow story period in a major media market starved for any news they can get.

Ok. So all the smoke around Jansen is normal stuff ? Seems like there may be some fire there.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Ya. In fact, I think it's been pretty clear they have been rebuilding since they hired Bloom in the first place, just not a full-tank rebuild. Since 2019, the priorities have been (in order of importance):
1. Rebuild the farm
2. Stay on the fringes of contention (without sacrificing future value).
It's not impossible to do both, though it is very hard, so this makes some sense as a strategy. But this all looks bad now because a couple things went wrong with (2). First, it turned out Chaim wasn't all that good at that task (if reports are to be believed, he was not good at negotiating/pulling the trigger on trades, and seemingly not that great at evaluating MLB talent overall). Second, the rest of the division went nuts which made it that much harder to stay in contention. So then Breslow is brought in not as a major shift in strategy, but to continue basically the same approach, with a different evaluator/negotiator at the helm, and perhaps some changes in emphasis, most obviously more pitching.

All this is to say, I have found the level of outrage and bewilderment at the moves and nonmoves this year to be a bit over the top. It isn't really a deep mystery what they are doing. Arguably, the FO has overstated the importance of priority 2 a bit in their messaging at a few points. This has made fan reactions worse, but I do think it's understandable that they would really want to emphasize that they are not going full teardown/tank.

And this does still leave room for potentially signing Montgomery, if that deal fits the criterion of staying on the fringes of contention without sacrificing the future.

If you spend $230 million a year I actually think it is pretty easy to do both. Signing Montogomery doesn't effect the farm. This suggestion that it is either or for a team with the Red Sox resources strikes me as wrong. Add in the basic context - which is that the idea of "windows" and building a "Championship team" may be true in Football but is wrong when it comes to baseball. Make the playoffs and you can win it all. Build a Super Team and you might not.

I don't get what they are doing. They haven't improved the farm at all this offseason. Grissom is a good acquisition - but he is major-league-ready.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Ok. So all the smoke around Jansen is normal stuff ? Seems like there may be some fire there.

The only "fire" there appears to be is that there are teams interested in/calling about acquiring Jansen but no one has yet made an offer that has prompted Breslow to say yes. I imagine if they asked the right front office source, a reporter could probably find a similar story about any number of players on the Sox roster (or any other team's roster). I think it's only newsworthy now because Red Sox rumors/mentions generate clicks and there's not a hell of a lot else going on.

 

[nighthob]

Ok. So all the smoke around Jansen is normal stuff ? Seems like there may be some fire there.

No, I mean if there were anything at all to talk about the “teams are calling the Red Sox about what it would take to acquire players they want” wouldn’t rise to the level an actual story.

 

[jbupstate]

I don't get what they are doing. They haven't improved the farm at all this offseason. Grissom is a good acquisition - but he is major-league-ready

I think the Verdugo trade improved the farm. I also think hiring B&B and their philosophy has a chance to improve development on the farm.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/jeffwilsontxr/status/1757830000643092594?s=46

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I think Montgomery is going to sign for very reasonable dollars and it won’t be with the Red Sox.

 

[moondog80]

Signing Montogomery doesn't effect the farm.

Signing Montgomery effects the team's ability to spend money when it is (maybe) in a better chance to compete and Montgomery is (possibly) no longer worth his contract.

 

[allmanbro]

I think the Verdugo trade improved the farm. I also think hiring B&B and their philosophy has a chance to improve development on the farm.

Yup, and there have been minor league deals (that may not amount to material improvement). Also, I suppose I should have said "rebuild the farm and stockpile of young, cost-controlled players", but I didn't bother since I see these goals as working so closely in the same direction.

 

[HfxBob]

If you spend $230 million a year I actually think it is pretty easy to do both. Signing Montogomery doesn't effect the farm. This suggestion that it is either or for a team with the Red Sox resources strikes me as wrong. Add in the basic context - which is that the idea of "windows" and building a "Championship team" may be true in Football but is wrong when it comes to baseball. Make the playoffs and you can win it all. Build a Super Team and you might not.

Exactly right. 2023 Diamondbacks vs. 2021-2023 Dodgers. This is why the Red Sox apparent approach of 'waiting until the right time to strike' seems a dubious one.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Signing Montgomery effects the team's ability to spend money when it is (maybe) in a better chance to compete and Montgomery is (possibly) no longer worth his contract.

Yea I don't buy that at all - it's just an excuse for not competing now.
Unless you believe that Breslow has a super power Boston has no real plan concerning starting pitching other than to not have any plan. And I do not believe this "Oh will compete in two years when Anthony is Babe Ruth".
Just my opinion obviously.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I think Montgomery is going to sign for very reasonable dollars and it won’t be with the Red Sox.

I can see the Phillies, Orioles, Astros, and Cubs as teams that would make sense for Montgomery at this point before he'd consider the Red Sox.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I can see the Phillies, Orioles, Astros, and Cubs as teams that would make sense for Montgomery at this point before he'd consider the Red Sox.

Phillies make all the sense in the world right now unless Dave thinks he can get something done with Wheeler soon.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Signing Montgomery effects the team's ability to spend money when it is (maybe) in a better chance to compete and Montgomery is (possibly) no longer worth his contract.

From the Red Sox perspective, signing Montgomery now will not hinder them in future years from making sizable contract commitments. Per Cot's Contracts, in 2025, they are currently $124 million below the LT threshold, $146 million below in 2026, and $151 million below in 2027.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I can see the Phillies, Orioles, Astros, and Cubs as teams that would make sense for Montgomery at this point before he'd consider the Red Sox.

If the price drops, I'd add the Cardinals and Giants

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Ok. So all the smoke around Jansen is normal stuff ? Seems like there may be some fire there.

Of course it is. You remember all of the times right before the eve of the first day of Spring Training where Jonathan Papelbon's or David Ortiz' or Roger Clemens' names were in the news as potentially being traded. Happens all the time. It's why the middle of February is known as "Tradin' Season".

This is all that big stupid media's fault.

 

[TomRicardo]

Ya. In fact, I think it's been pretty clear they have been rebuilding since they hired Bloom in the first place, just not a full-tank rebuild. Since 2019, the priorities have been (in order of importance):
1. Rebuild the farm
2. Stay on the fringes of contention (without sacrificing future value).

I am not sure they did much of either. It was more

1) Sit on our hands and don't trade away prospects
2) Lose so we can add high draft picks

They didn't do a lot in terms of bolstering the farm including development over the last four years. Well they also cheaped out on a second round pick one year then lucked in Roman Anthony the next year with comp pick who on the team's defense, they did pay.

 

[moondog80]

From the Red Sox perspective, signing Montgomery now will not hinder them in future years from making sizable contract commitments. Per Cot's Contracts, in 2025, they are currently $124 million below the LT threshold, $146 million below in 2026, and $151 million below in 2027.

You are assuming they won't spend any other money between now and then.

If the Red Sox have returned to their spending ways in 2027 and Montgomery is still on the team but no longer effective, that's 25 mil or so per year that can't be spent elsewhere.

 

[chawson]

Phillies make all the sense in the world right now unless Dave thinks he can get something done with Wheeler soon.

Dave's been pretty public recently about wanting to extend him too. Boras has seeded the idea that the Phillies are on the periphery but it seems really unlikely to me, especially with their tax thing.

https://thatballsouttahere.com/posts/dombrowski-still-wants-to-extend-phillies-ace-zack-wheeler-as-soon-as-possible

From the Red Sox perspective, signing Montgomery now will not hinder them in future years from making sizable contract commitments. Per Cot's Contracts, in 2025, they are currently $124 million below the LT threshold, $146 million below in 2026, and $151 million below in 2027.

I think the risk would be more that you'd have a pretty mediocre pitcher that you'd have to pay into 2028-29 (or, more likely, pay to pitch elsewhere).

I'd again invite folks to look at the comparable pitchers to Jordan Montgomery over their 28-30 seasons. By xFIP, it's guys like Gio Gonzalez, Wandy Rodriguez, C.J. Wilson, Jaime Garcia, Matthew Boyd, Cliff Lee, Robbie Ray, Patrick Corbin, Sean Manaea, Wei-Yin Chen, Eduardo Rodriguez and Francisco Liriano. The pitch modeling metrics don't love Montgomery either. He's got four average-ish pitches with good command.

I feel like I trust that Breslow, Bailey, Willard, and Boddy have a pretty good sense of Montgomery's value going forward. He's obviously an asset at a certain price, but not at the Rodón contract that's been floated. I'm not sure if that kind of thinking is too "favorable to the Red Sox," but I think we have to trust that they know this particular subject. Rather than some insidious plot, it just seems so much more likely that they (and others in the org) are collectively saying, No, this guy is not worth $175 million (and a roster spot) more over the next five years than Tanner Houck.

 

[bernie carb 33]

Signing Montgomery effects the team's ability to spend money when it is (maybe) in a better chance to compete and Montgomery is (possibly) no longer worth his contract.

I saw an interesting cumulation of pitching logs over several years. The byline said that MLB pitchers are given about 600 innings pitched before it is time to undergo TJ type surgeries, assuming the warning signs are showing. This particular log stated that Montgomery had pitched 572 innings since his last surgery. FWIW.

 

[RedOctober3829]

You are assuming they won't spend any other money between now and then.

If the Red Sox have returned to their spending ways in 2027 and Montgomery is still on the team but no longer effective, that's 25 mil or so per year that can't be spent elsewhere.

That's the risk you take with signing a pitcher in free agency. The going rate for a decent SP in future years will be approaching $25 million. I think in 2027 Montgomery still would be worth that kind of money. Any way you put it, the Red Sox have plenty of money to spend in future years even with Jordan Montgomery in the fold.

 

[bosockboy]

That's the risk you take with signing a pitcher in free agency. The going rate for a decent SP in future years will be approaching $25 million. I think in 2027 Montgomery still would be worth that kind of money. Any way you put it, the Red Sox have plenty of money to spend in future years even with Jordan Montgomery in the fold.

Yep. You can’t keep kicking the can on acquiring pitching when you clearly can’t develop it.

 

[uncannymanny]

Of course it is. You remember all of the times right before the eve of the first day of Spring Training where Jonathan Papelbon's or David Ortiz' or Roger Clemens' names were in the news as potentially being traded. Happens all the time. It's why the middle of February is known as "Tradin' Season".

This is all that big stupid media's fault.

Wait until you see Scott Boras' face when they pull the cover off this 8D chess offseason, though!

You are assuming they won't spend any other money between now and then.

If the Red Sox have returned to their spending ways in 2027 and Montgomery is still on the team but no longer effective, that's 25 mil or so per year that can't be spent elsewhere.

So, we're expecting when they're ready to compete, they'll sign multiple good pitchers then (the same type I've heard only want to play for LA or get more than the RS top dollar)?

 

[moondog80]

So, we're expecting when they're ready to compete, they'll sign multiple good pitchers then (the same type I've heard only want to play for LA or get more than the RS top dollar)?

Yes, hopefully.