How many will we need? This offseason started with Breslow talking about trades. I think they categorically don't trust the free agent market for starting pitchers, outside of the outlier guys who reach it early in life. Maybe they can get Roki Sasaki's attention by the time he's ready.
I think when they're ready to compete, we'll hopefully have seen whether Houck, Whitlock, Crawford and/or Winckowski can make a leap forward into one of those good starting pitchers that we'd otherwise sign.
If they have another sub-par season, what's the draw to come to Boston other than money?
The problem is, why would any of those guys sign in Boston unless they were given way more money than everyone else, and what has the ownership group done over the past year other than show everyone that they don’t intend to severely overpay on the free agent market.
We can probably staple the better of Meyers or Anthony to Montgomery to get rid of the bad contract in 2027.
If Giolito ops out he is going to want $100 million. I mean that deal made no sense - the Red Sox essentially bet against themselves.
I think the TV stuff is a bit of a smokescreen. It MLB completely tanks Diamond Sports, then we know they’re going to press those clubs to sell their local streaming rights back to the league.
That is the plan (or the hope) of the fan base.
I guess you could ask the subsequent question too: why would good players already in the organization agree to lock themselves up with the Red Sox if they are not a winning organization? Why not just take the increased salary with every arbitration year, and then hit free agency and sign with a team where you can win? Wouldn't players inside the organization have the same aversion to being on the Red Sox as players outside of it?
Well, they did trade for and then extend Schilling, Beckett, and Sale. And of course pre FSG the same thing happened with Pedro. So the organization has acquired and paid top dollar for all-star caliber pitchers outside from the organization.
What you've described is a one-year solution. Who is paying for the rights to broadcast the Diamondbacks in 2025 and how much will they be willing to pay? I strongly suspect MLB trying to sell ads on and run its own broadcasts for most of the teams is going to be substantially less lucrative than past TV rights deals were. I think this is a very, very big problem for all but a very small number of teams (Sox, NYY, NYM, LAD and maybe a handful of others).
This is a plan for competing in 2027. This is not progress. It is in fact, no plan at all given that they have no real pitching prospects.
Yes, but unfortunately, (s I've outlined many times), they don't have the pitching prospects necessary to make that kind of deal.
The Bruins and Celtics will hopefully be making deep playoff runs into May/June, and the Patriots will be getting a ton of attention with a new QB, coach heading into training camp. With Boston sports fans and media focused on the other three teams, this might be the one year where waving the white flag in April doesn‘t get as much attention.
This is no plan. They sold Sale to get a positional player. The only thing they have done is let Verdugo go. If you can see a plan in that you are smarter than I am. Because I see zero. Zilch. In fact, the starting pitching is IN WORSE SHAPE at this moment than they were a year ago. Pivetta is gone after this year.
Cora benched Verdugo in June for lack of hustling and again in August for reasons unsaid (but he was late to the ballpark that day). Perhaps Cora decided that the team would be better off without Verdugo as part of it and 'strongly' suggested to management that he'd prefer to see him gone.
So basically you believe that if they can’t figure out how to compete this year or next then they don’t have a plan?
I don’t see how failing to sign say: Michael Wacha and Teoscar on short term deals precludes some sort of magical rebuild. Being 35mm under the tax with massive roster holes isn’t really excusable.
I’m still primarily a “lurker” here, but this is the first I’ve heard someone mention taking outside investment money. Could you share more about that — maybe a summary or a link?
Basically, in 2021 Redbird Capital Partners bought 11% of FSG from a bunch of the former limited partners. Also in the transaction, some of the Liverpool limited partners like LeBron James and Maverick Carter’s stock was converted to full FSG stock.
I suppose it depends on how disciplined a front office is.
It’s because now they have to answer to investors who say, “hey we could have made $350 million in profits this year instead of $300.” When you spend the $50 million and win, Kennedy can respond with “we’re winning, we’re building the brand, it’s good for your investment.”
I understand what you're saying here, but one thing that should be factored into this is how early the extension is offered. Casas for example (only using him as an example because of where he is in his career) has 2 seasons before he's arb eligible. Should he be offered an extension during spring training, a sizable bump to buy out his remaining 5 pre-ab seasons is something that he and any other player should seriously think on when the money is guaranteed for a performance that isn't.
Well, if you want to be optimistic, you could look around at who is pitching well and where they came from, in recent years. It has a lot to do with development, something the Sox have not excelled at, but presumably hired Breslow and Bailey for precisely this reason. There is plenty of underperforming talent in the SP market every year, both younger guys stalling out and veterans who could shake things up a bit. My preference has always been for a top rotation anchor type, which might be Monty or a trade acquisition (at some point Cease gets moved), but that's not an iron clad law for contention.
I'm sure they have input but I don't think a 10% minority investor would be dictating profit margins. John Henry is still the largest stakeholder
I was just about to post something similar.
Sure if spending $50 million guaranteed then a playoff spot, but it doesn’t.
I think this is even made even more clear by looking at the difference between Boston and Texas’s SIERA last year. Boston (4.10, good for 13th in the league) was better than Texas (4.31/ 18th). It’s the difference between having one of the best defense’s in baseball (+19 OAA) and having a historically bad defense (-50 OAA).
Yep... one decent RH bat and Montgomery does not hurt the future and puts them in the conversation this season.... for the 9,456, 702th time.
What tier are the other four teams in the division in?
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/author/jake-mailhot/
So how do you propose the defense be improved? I’m going to assume that you will immediately reference Rafaela but based off of quotes from Cora and his alarming lack of plate discipline, it seems like he could use more seasoning in AAA.
Or just as likely, they still finish last and now they have less money to spend when Montgomery inevitably gets hurt and sucks by year 3 of his 7 year deal.
I think that the FO and Cora strongly believe that Rafaela needs ABs in Worcester for at least the first quarter of the season.
