Patriots' 2024 Free Agency Thread

Oct 12, 2023
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How high would you want them to go for a 30 YO WR who has never been truly elite to begin with?
I get the sentiment and agree to an extent but drafting Maye or Daniels and giving him bargain bin and dumpster dive WR’s isn’t exactly a recipe for success

At some point, you need to pay, even if it’s not a great deal. If not when you’re a 4 win team with among the most cap space in the NFL, when?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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We’ve been talking for months about the epic amounts of cap space this team was going to have and thus far, they’ve added what, Brissett, Antonio Gibson and Hooper? It’s frustrating to see the team add jag after jag when they are so lacking on high upside talent. Gonna have to absolutely nail the draft and / or hope the “it’s a playoff team with an average QB” mantra is actually true. This isn’t looking like a super talented roster. Of course, it’s hard to rebuild through the draft when you have a ton of needs and this is prob just the beginning of a multi-year rebuild.
 

Cellar-Door

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We’ve been talking for months about the epic amounts of cap space this team was going to have and thus far, they’ve added what, Brissett, Antonio Gibson and Hooper? It’s frustrating to see the team add jag after jag when they are so lacking on high upside talent. Gonna have to absolutely nail the draft and / or hope the “it’s a playoff team with an average QB” mantra is actually true. This isn’t looking like a super talented roster.
They aren't done yet. But also... this was a terrible offensive FA class.

They added a solid QB, a 3rd down back, a RT, upgraded TE, didn't lose anybody important... and didn't make any bad investments.
Is there anybody who signed elsewhere that you would really want at that price? Ridley... a guy putting up Davante Parker in MIA numbers at age 30 for 23M a year? Were you looking to sign Gabe Davis?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I just don’t think they’ve really added much if any talent to what was an awful team. Or course, that’s probably the nature of free agency and why lots of cap space in two of the last four years hasn’t resulted in much. The team probably has to be rebuilt through the draft, which will likely take some time, and it may be best for the organization to level set expectations.
 

mcpickl

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lexrageorge

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Eventually they’re going to have to pay the freight if they want actual good players. Very few of those hit free agency. They had a shot at one and wouldn’t go the extra mile. Same old shit from this team.
Ridley is not worth that contract. Sometimes it’s indeed better to let the player go. Ridley is not close to elite.
 

ehaz

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This is the guy I thought they'd end up with all along.

Van Pelt was on that Cincinatti staff when Boyd was leading the team in targets.

I don't love the fit here though. He needs to be a 2/3
“He needs to be a 2/3” basically describes everyone available though. They’re not finding a veteran 1 this year. Best case scenario they draft someone with that kind of upside in the 2nd or 3rd.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I just don’t think they’ve really added much if any talent to what was an awful team. Or course, that’s probably the nature of free agency and why lots of cap space in two of the last four years hasn’t resulted in much. The team probably has to be rebuilt through the draft, which will likely take some time, and it may be best for the organization to level set expectations.
You're certainly not wrong. But . . . If you have a moment, head over to OTC. It is one of the few places that I know of that breaks down the cap by offense and defense. If you sort of go page by page and look at the best teams, you'll notice that the ratio kind of stays fairly consistent. Offense is usually about $30 to $40 million more of the cap than defense. The Cowboys have an $80 million delta. The Browns have a $120 million delta. Now, obviously some of this is QB but not all.

When you look at the Patriots' page, you get a very definite one of these things is not like the other vibe. Most of the top cap commitments are defensive players. Their highest paid player on offense (cap at least) was Juju until Onewnu's deal was signed a few days ago. They are one of the few teams spending several million more on defense than on offense.

The bottom line is that you can only have so many impact players. Cap space is not the be all and end all of how a team is doing contracts or structuring its team, but the reality is that Belichick devoted a disproportionate amount of resources to defense. Most teams have a couple of defenders in their top 10. But not most of them. This is not to be critical of Bill. He makes choices and he sticks with them. Sometimes his gut tells him not to call a time out. He tried and it didn't work so well. He was going for impact defense and competent offense. He did not get the latter for reasons that have dominated BBTL. But it is what it is and there's no way to fix it in three days of free agency when there are other building blocks that need to get put into place.

The Patriots have cash and draft capital, and they are in position now where I think we are going to start seeing it used for offensive players. But if you try to undo things too quickly by splashing money around that's not going to be a sustained plan either. We are we are. It really still is early days.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Fair enough, @DennyDoyle'sBoil. Usually teams that “win” in free agency don’t win when it matters anyways, it seeme. Trying to balance the frustration of the lack of moves with the reality that it probably doesn’t matter all that much to developing a winner.
 

tims4wins

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You're certainly not wrong. But . . . If you have a moment, head over to OTC. It is one of the few places that I know of that breaks down the cap by offense and defense. If you sort of go page by page and look at the best teams, you'll notice that the ratio kind of stays fairly consistent. Offense is usually about $30 to $40 million more of the cap than defense. The Cowboys have an $80 million delta. The Browns have a $120 million delta. Now, obviously some of this is QB but not all.

When you look at the Patriots' page, you get a very definite one of these things is not like the other vibe. Most of the top cap commitments are defensive players. Their highest paid player on offense (cap at least) was Juju until Onewnu's deal was signed a few days ago. They are one of the few teams spending several million more on defense than on offense.

The bottom line is that you can only have so many impact players. Cap space is not the be all and end all of how a team is doing contracts or structuring its team, but the reality is that Belichick devoted a disproportionate amount of resources to defense. Most teams have a couple of defenders in their top 10. But not most of them. This is not to be critical of Bill. He makes choices and he sticks with them. Sometimes his gut tells him not to call a time out. He tried and it didn't work so well. He was going for impact defense and competent offense. He did not get the latter for reasons that have dominated BBTL. But it is what it is and there's no way to fix it in three days of free agency when there are other building blocks that need to get put into place.

The Patriots have cash and draft capital, and they are in position now where I think we are going to start seeing it used for offensive players. But if you try to undo things too quickly by splashing money around that's not going to be a sustained plan either. We are we are. It really still is early days.
Excellent post. They’re not going to build a championship roster over night.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Jeff Howe is reporting that Uche turned down a 2yr/15 million deal with 11mil guaranteed to take the Pats 1yr/3mil (incentives up to 8mil) to stay here.

Apparently betting on himself to have a good year and get paid next year. Kind of love that.
 

ehaz

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Jonah Williams goes to Arizona for 2/$30m with $19m guaranteed.

Mr. Wolf I’m getting nervous.
 

Greekca

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I like the approach of not chasing the old tier short-term guys. This team isn’t winning the Super Bowl next year nor are they likely making the playoffs. Field a competitive roster but also provide opportunities for the younger core who will potentially be part of playoff caliber teams to develop.

I am pretty sure cap space rolls over too. You don’t have to blow it all this year. You do have to meet certain minimum cash spending thresholds, but sure would be nice to have some dough to spend next year when you have a better idea of what sort of offense you are going to build. Building an offense before you even know who your QB is or what his strengths are seems pretty stupid. Give him the basics every young QB needs (solid o-line and dump off options) and draft the rest after you get your guy at #3.
 

Dewey's 'stache

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Man I wish we had locked down Jakobi Myers last year instead of Shuester. That mistake is causing a lot of downstream angst. I hate angst.
 

Justthetippett

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I like the approach of not chasing the old tier short-term guys. This team isn’t winning the Super Bowl next year nor are they likely making the playoffs. Field a competitive roster but also provide opportunities for the younger core who will potentially be part of playoff caliber teams to develop.

I am pretty sure cap space rolls over too. You don’t have to blow it all this year. You do have to meet certain minimum cash spending thresholds, but sure would be nice to have some dough to spend next year when you have a better idea of what sort of offense you are going to build. Building an offense before you even know who your QB is or what his strengths are seems pretty stupid. Give him the basics every young QB needs (solid o-line and dump off options) and draft the rest after you get your guy at #3.
The solid O line is what they are decidedly missing right now, and that's probably their biggest problem. One of these FA WRs would be good have but it's not a fatal flaw if they miss out. If they can't pull together a decent set of OTs, then that could really hurt their rookie QB, physically, mentally, etc. Rookie WRs also step in and produce (excepting most of the Pats' picks) right away much more often than rookie OTs.
 

j-man

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Mike Williams is not "always hurt". 2019-2023 games played: 15, 15, 16, 13, 3. So last year, yeah. A problem. But the other seasons, not bad at all. 2022 I'd like to have seen 15, not 13, but he shouldn't require a big, long commitment, and he really would instantly be by FAR the best receiver on the team. He's a total game changer when he's on the field.
he is a good red zone wr but unlees its deep balls he is a num 2 wr
 

mcpickl

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“He needs to be a 2/3” basically describes everyone available though. They’re not finding a veteran 1 this year. Best case scenario they draft someone with that kind of upside in the 2nd or 3rd.
I agree.

That's why I wouldn't sign any FA WR for significant money because they are all 2/3 types, or have injury/age concerns.
 

Dogman

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Fair enough, @DennyDoyle'sBoil. Usually teams that “win” in free agency don’t win when it matters anyways, it seeme. Trying to balance the frustration of the lack of moves with the reality that it probably doesn’t matter all that much to developing a winner.
They have made 19 moves in the first 3 days of FA:

Sign QB Brissett
Re-sign QB Rourke
Sign RB Gibson
Re-sign RT Onwenu
Sign LT Okarofor
Sign G Everett
Re-sign WR Bourne
Re-sign WR Reagor
Re-sign TE Henry
Sign TE Hooper
Sign DT Armon Hammer Watts
Re-sign Edge Jennings
Re-sign Edge Uche
Re-sign CB Austin
Sign LB Takitaki
Tag S Duggar
Trade QB Mac
Release WR Parker
Release DL Guy

LB Mack Wilson, TE Gesicki, CB/S Mills, TE Brown have signed with other teams.

With $55M remaining in space, I still think the team will make an offer for OT Smith and a WR like Boyd or Williams, and whatever happens with Duggar will all cost against the remaining space. With Judon and Gonzalez returning, there is talent there. That leaves the draft for QB, WR, OT, TE, LB, S, Edge, OL depth.

Sure, no WR1 or other players with name status, but Ridley is very overpaid by another team.

Maybe adjust your expectations?
 
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Arroyoyo

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$55m already includes the transition tag cost for Dugger. If they rework anything, I don’t think it would add to that in 2024.

I believe it has also accounted for the draft class.

From what I can see, it’s $55m in hard cash, with all signings accounted for, that they still have for 2024.
 

Dogman

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That's fair. In consideration of Duggar signing a long term deal, that will change the remaining monies but that's getting ahead of ourselves.
 

Cellar-Door

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So just for fun, here are the top WRs in each class (starting in 2022 so we have multiple years of production) and the outcome

2022
Christian Kirk- 2 years, 1895 yards, on 218 targets 11 TD, 12 drops... maybe overpaid but not bad, #2 WR
Allen Robinson- 1 year 339 yards on 53 targets 3 TD, 2 drops/.... cut pure disaster
MVS- 2 years 1002 yards on 123 targets 3 TD 8 drops... bust

2021
Golladay- 2 years, 602 yards on 93 targets 1 TD 3 drops, cut for a huge cap hit, complete disaster
Corey Davis-1028 yards on 123 targets 6 TD 9 drops, cut... bust
Curtis Samuel- 1306 yards on 192 targets 8 TD 7 drops missed a season with injuries, then a #3 WR.. meh.

2020
Randall Cobb- 1 year 441 yards on 48 targets 3TD 1 drop cut after a year
Emmanuel Sanders- 1 year 726 yards on 82 targets 5TDs, 3 drops cut after a year (not bad)
Robbie Anderson-2 years 1615 yards on 246 targets 8 TD 9 drops, traded for a late pick... good year 1 bad year 2, done.

So basically shopping top of the market for WRs basically gets you something ranging from complete disaster to acceptable 2/3 option.
 
Oct 12, 2023
720
They have made 19 moves in the first 3 days of FA:

Sign QB Brissett
Re-sign QB Rourke
Sign RB Gibson
Re-sign RT Onwenu
Sign LT Okorafor
Sign G Everett
Re-sign WR Bourne
Re-sign WR Reagor
Re-sign TE Henry
Sign TE Hooper
Sign DT Armon Hammer Watts
Re-sign Edge Jennings
Re-sign Edge Uche
Re-sign CB Austin
Sign LB Takitaki
Tag S Duggar
Trade QB Mac
Release WR Parker
Release DL Guy

LB Mack Wilson, TE Gesicki, CB/S Mills, TE Brown have signed with other teams.

With $55M remaining in space, I still think the team will make an offer for OT Smith and a WR like Boyd or Williams, and whatever happens with Duggar will all cost against the remaining space. With Judon and Gonzalez returning, there is talent there. That leaves the draft for QB, WR, OT, TE, LB, S, Edge, OL depth.

Sure, no WR1 or other players with name status, but Ridley is very overpaid by another team.

Maybe adjust your expectations?
19 moves and arguably worse overall outside of QB. As much as Trent Brown is frustrating (to put it mildly) he’s better than Okarofor. The rest seems like a wash and loss of depth. Gibson is a different skill set than Zeke but hardly an upgrade (or an upgrade to receiving back and downgrade to #2 RB).

Struggling to see how it’s even possible for 4-13 team with holes everywhere and tons of cap space has failed to improve except by stabilizing the QB position with a career backup.
 

j-man

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They have made 19 moves in the first 3 days of FA:

Sign QB Brissett
Re-sign QB Rourke
Sign RB Gibson
Re-sign RT Onwenu
Sign LT Okorafor
Sign G Everett
Re-sign WR Bourne
Re-sign WR Reagor
Re-sign TE Henry
Sign TE Hooper
Sign DT Armon Hammer Watts
Re-sign Edge Jennings
Re-sign Edge Uche
Re-sign CB Austin
Sign LB Takitaki
Tag S Duggar
Trade QB Mac
Release WR Parker
Release DL Guy

LB Mack Wilson, TE Gesicki, CB/S Mills, TE Brown have signed with other teams.

With $55M remaining in space, I still think the team will make an offer for OT Smith and a WR like Boyd or Williams, and whatever happens with Duggar will all cost against the remaining space. With Judon and Gonzalez returning, there is talent there. That leaves the draft for QB, WR, OT, TE, LB, S, Edge, OL depth.

Sure, no WR1 or other players with name status, but Ridley is very overpaid by another team.

Maybe adjust your expectations?
facts try being a broncos fan where they are f utill 26
 

Dogman

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We can argue whether they are worse overall or not but I was more answering the "lack of moves" line from the post. They aren't done yet either.
 

nattysez

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19 moves and arguably worse overall outside of QB. As much as Trent Brown is frustrating (to put it mildly) he’s better than Okarofor. The rest seems like a wash and loss of depth. Gibson is a different skill set than Zeke but hardly an upgrade (or an upgrade to receiving back and downgrade to #2 RB).

Struggling to see how it’s even possible for 4-13 team with holes everywhere and tons of cap space has failed to improve except by stabilizing the QB position with a career backup.
A few days into free agency and a month before the draft is a little early for this kind of take.
 
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It's Day Two of FA. I don't blame them for not landing every target I was hoping they'd reel in. The Ridley contract seems like a bad deal, especially given where they are in the rebuild. It's frustrating, but to me the idea that this reflects poorly on Eliot and Mayo is a bit juvenile. Patience...
 

Devizier

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Games played over 7 years with the Chargers are 10, 16, 15, 15, 16, 13, 3. Initially I thought he missed more games, but it is just the last 2 years. If the money is right, I think he is worth it.
I wonder if it’s because his (more famous?) predecessor pretty much was never healthy in the NFL.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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The Patriots are getting a bunch of necessary business done. When teams have a lot of cap space it's usually because the timing is such that they have a lot of needs. Patriots started with almost $100 million. It would be pretty rare that a team had everything locked down but still had that kind of room. So, they've gotten important business done and they still have a good chunk left. I'm interested to see what they do. I'm most stressed about tackle. Not many great options left. But they will figure something out. They have a lot of assets.

Just remember how they got Trent Brown the first time. Stuff starts to happen. The draft brings 50 new impact players and another 50 potential impact players into the league, and starts loosening stuff up. There will be plenty of time for recriminations if we fuck it up.

I would also argue that they have gotten better at QB.
 

chilidawg

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Athletic's best available FA OT's and WR's:

Tyron Smith (OT)
Andrus Peat
Chris Hubbard
David Bakhtiari
Mekhi Becton
Charles Leno Jr.
Cornelius Lucas.

Mike Williams (WR)
Josh Reynolds
Odell Beckham
Curtis Samuel
Hunter Renfroe
Marquise Brown

On Reynolds: He has size and a solid catch radius and made big grabs for his team all season long. He is physical, fighting through contact and drawing his share of pass interference calls. His speed is not elite, but he has the body control to get in and out of breaks very well for a big man. He should be a solid No. 2 WR in the league. — Mueller

Samuel: Samuel has played mainly in the slot but might be better suited to move outside. No matter where he plays, his versatility should be viewed by most teams as a strength. He has excellent quickness and explosiveness and can change speeds to stretch defenses. He would be a clear-cut upgrade for many teams. He is instinctive and gets to open areas quickly against zone coverage. I see him as an undervalued player who still has upside, but he would be on his third team if he leaves Washington. — Mueller

https://theathletic.com/5326462/2024/03/13/best-available-nfl-free-agents/
 

DJnVa

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Won’t Chargers be paying Williams some cash? Similar to what happened with Devante Parker?
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Won’t Chargers be paying Williams some cash? Similar to what happened with Devante Parker?
I'm not entirely sure but I don't think so. I think the issue with Parker was that his 2024 salary was guaranteed by the Patriots. I guess when you release a player with guaranteed salary, you still have to pay the salary and then you potentially get an offset if he gets paid by another club.

But I think Williams already got all or most of his guaranteed money and there is nothing left the Chargers have to pay him. I could be wrong though.
 

Cellar-Door

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Won’t Chargers be paying Williams some cash? Similar to what happened with Devante Parker?
As far as I know offset is only salary. Williams had no guaranteed salary this year, all the money LAC are paying him is signing and re-structure bonuses. (like last year his salary was the minimum, and then he made like 12M in bonuses.
 

Justthetippett

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19 moves and arguably worse overall outside of QB. As much as Trent Brown is frustrating (to put it mildly) he’s better than Okarofor. The rest seems like a wash and loss of depth. Gibson is a different skill set than Zeke but hardly an upgrade (or an upgrade to receiving back and downgrade to #2 RB).

Struggling to see how it’s even possible for 4-13 team with holes everywhere and tons of cap space has failed to improve except by stabilizing the QB position with a career backup.
They shored up their defense, which was already strong, but I think relative to other teams, who had to make cuts, etc., that's an improvement. You might also get more out of these re-signed guys on second contracts now that they are more seasoned, we have good continuity, etc.

On offense I agree but it's about the draft. The only FA I am upset that got away given the contract is Jonah Williams, and that's really only because it would free then up to bring along a rookie OT more slowly, not because I think he's some world-beater.
 

Dogman

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I think people will feel very differently about the team entering the draft if we sign another OT and WR. I'm sure they will leave some cap space for camp cuts and injury insurance too.
 

twibnotes

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They had me at trading Mac - the rest is gravy.

(started typing this as a joke and then realized I’m pretty sure I mean it)
 

rodderick

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Sure, long term success is driven by high level drafting and QB play, but if you have the cap and cash to bolster the talent level of your roster, I also think you'd be wise to do it, especially if the plan is to draft a QB at 3. Get him into the program with some established pieces around him, instead of having to start with rookies at LT and WR2 day one, for instance. I'm not saying this is what will happen, there's a whole lot yet to come, but free agency is more meaningful than some are painting it as. It was absolutely key for the first part of the dynasty, for instance, even if there was a lot of elite home grown talent on those teams, I'd argue the 2000-2001 jump had a lot to do with those signings.
 

jsinger121

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Sure, long term success is driven by high level drafting and QB play, but if you have the cap and cash to bolster the talent level of your roster, I also think you'd be wise to do it, especially if the plan is to draft a QB at 3. Get him into the program with some established pieces around him, instead of having to start with rookies at LT and WR2 day one, for instance. I'm not saying this is what will happen, there's a whole lot yet to come, but free agency is more meaningful than some are painting it as. It was absolutely key for the first part of the dynasty, for instance, even if there was a lot of elite home grown talent on those teams, I'd argue the 2000-2001 jump had a lot to do with those signings.
The signings in 2000 and 2001 were mostly bargain basement signings and nothing that broke the bank. That many of them hit and played keys roles in the first 3 titles runs was the surprise.
 

Devizier

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If the Patriots are going to take an injury chance on older tackles (Tyron Smith), would it be worth looking at Bakhtiari as well? Obviously a huge injury gamble there. Maybe he retires?
 

joe dokes

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If the Patriots are going to take an injury chance on older tackles (Tyron Smith), would it be worth looking at Bakhtiari as well? Obviously a huge injury gamble there. Maybe he retires?
Or he becomes part of Aaron Rodgers's cabinet.
 

DJnVa

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Pats Twitter becoming wasteland because we didn’t overpay for Ridley and that means they aren’t trying to improve roster.