Patriots' 2024 Free Agency Thread
- Thread starter Jake Peavy's Demons
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Which are going to seem even worse in situations like Ridley when they’re competing against no state income tax states and Mass has a 5% and another 4% due to the millionaires tax. So not just beat $23m but probably have to be north of $26 to make a real difference.
While I agree money usually is all that matters, I disagree with the last part. Oh maybe once every 5 years, but generally successful teams Don't spend much of their time shopping the top of the FA market. They draft well, trade well, extend their best guys early when possible and shop for role players. The teams that shop top of the market frequently are usually poorly run teams.
The teams that shop top of the market are the ones who already suck, have cap space because they don't have good players worth extending and end up having to pay a premium to acquire talent. It's generally a consequence of sucking (mostly through drafting poorly), not the cause of it. But then you have all that cash and spending money doesn't make it so you'll have less draft resources, so what are you going to do, not spend it?
I think Onwenu had a market outside of NE but I'm not sure about the others. Henry is a 30YO TE, Bourne a 29YO 3rd WR coming off a torn ACL. Uche barely played down the stretch last season and Jennings had a break out season but is a run stuffing LB/Edge hybrid. I like the Jennings signing but I'm not even sure he had a robust market. I'm certainly not convinced any of them took less $$ to stay in NE with the exception of Uche if you believe the PR though even with him I'd be surprised if he really had the type of deals he claims he did.
They resigned a lot of league average talent, something virtually every team does.
It's both. Every NFL roster has guys worth extending, and badly run teams are bad at identifying and pricing talent. Relying on big money FA is bound to fail as a strategy because most FAs are either in or rapidly approaching their declines, so you pay far more for worsening production.
Everything is kind of bound to fail as a strategy if you don't have the piece at quarterback, though. You can also build a short term contender by hitting on free agents, especially by finding lower priced gems. The sustainable success through drafting also comes solely by virtue of one of the picks you hit on being a QB.
They all could have left if they wanted to play for a different coach, or wanted a better chance to win. Do you disagree?
I don't think the Patriots would be relying on big money FA's to rebuild their team. However, they do need an influx of talent given how bad they were the last couple of seasons. There's a way to do both building through the draft and plugging a hole or two with a higher priced FA to improve the team in the short-term.
Draft and develop the right quarterback and no one in free agency is going to give a shit about the state income tax.
Miguel has a great tweet today. Won’t link it but for those worried about the Patriots’ cash spending or who think there is a Kraft is cheap narrative, you should take a look.
Cash spending for 2024 is 94m. Possible incentives is $28m. This is for a cap reduction of about $47 million. 2 to 1.
This is just for FAs. It does not take into account all other salaries. Nor does it take into account that cash spending on the third pick in the draft will be nearly $25 million.
So don’t fret. They will start this next 3 year cash spending measuring period by spending like 110 percent of the cap if not more.
Cash spending for 2024 is 94m. Possible incentives is $28m. This is for a cap reduction of about $47 million. 2 to 1.
This is just for FAs. It does not take into account all other salaries. Nor does it take into account that cash spending on the third pick in the draft will be nearly $25 million.
So don’t fret. They will start this next 3 year cash spending measuring period by spending like 110 percent of the cap if not more.
But they haven't thrown away money at bad contracts!!! How are they supposed to compete like that?
It is unfortunate to have high taxes, lousy weather, and be generally seen as not a very happening place (Miami, LA, NYC we are not).
Perhaps for less money or term. I don't think there was a big market for Henry or Bourne given age and injury. Onwenu came back for top $$ but certainly could have gone elsewhere. The others perhaps?
I mean yes they have spent money and you should get credit to some degree for bringing guys back as they have not done a good job of that in a while. However, how much better is the team? The WR room is still bottom 5 in the league. They still need a left tackle. The CB room needs another outside corner. QB they will take care of in the draft we know that. Their pass rush is relying on bounce back years from Judon(injury) and Uche(lack of production). RB they got a passing back, but Stevenson is entering a contract year.
All in all, seems like a lot of money to spend to not really see much of an improvement(so far). If they go out and trade for Higgins or Aiyuk or sign Mike Williams, that changes things. But at the moment, they are looking like they are really taking building through the draft to heart.
Henry and Bourne never made it to market, but from league wide reporters Bourne deal is seen as team friendly. ACL makes it hard to judge. We know Uche took less so he had a market.
Nah. A team with a plan and a young rookie QB could be fun to watch for reasons other than W/L.
None of that was my point. If people want to argue that there is nothing exciting about building block spending when we lack offensive playmakers, I won’t argue about it.
I was responding to a different point. There has been a suggestion the Patriots are cheap because their cash spending has been less than the cap in recent years. Some were even worried we would risk falling short of the cash spending floor and be forced to spend recklessly. Some of us responded that if you are spending to the cap — as the Patriots do — your cash spending and cap will equalize over time. It is just timing.
Which is what we are seeing now. On free agents they have spent $2 for every $1 in cap, and this is just what happens. It is why the league does not look at cash spending yearly.
You didn't think that playoff team with a rookie QB was fun to watch?
I enjoyed that season.
But SoSH told me MA taxes are not an issue and we are super competitive with other states for retaining top talent, sports world included. I’m confused.
That’s kind of a strawman though isn’t it? Not every free agent who signed elsewhere is a “bad” contract and some of those guys probably would have helped the 2024 Patriots be more competitive
I find it hard to believe that a 3rd down back, backup QB and swing tackle who was benched last year are the only acceptable external options to improve a 4 win team.
Wanting to see the team spend money to improve the roster (not just retain guys to prevent it getting worse) isn’t the same as wanting to see the team waste money.
I get it, they want to build through the draft and are looking at this as a 3-5 year rebuild assuming they draft well and get lucky. But that’s going to cause a lot of frustration for fans who are used to winning or at least want to see a team improve from the worst season they’ve had in decades.
Wolf is going to need to have an improbably great draft record the next 2 years for this team to become even semi-relevant by 2026 unless he’s willing to risk a “bad” contract to add core pieces to the team.
I don’t think this fan base is used to the idea that rebuilds take a very long time and often don’t work. The league is littered with teams who have been rebuilding for decades with not much to show for it. It’s a lot more likely, given how often draft picks fail and the current composition of the roster (no talent on offense, aging key players on defense) that they’re going to be in rebuild mode for 5+ years than it is they will be contending in that time span.
Maybe Maye or whoever is a franchise QB. Probably not given the success rate of any random QB prospect. Maybe they find a LT and WR in this draft, but probably not both.
Barring a lot of luck, it’s going to be a long long road to relevancy and a lot of fans are going to have trouble adjusting to that and get frustrated by the process.
Well, yeah. And signing a bunch of middling free agents around Mac Jones - and then screwing him over in years two and three - probably delayed that rebuild by three years. I’d rather they keep the powder dry this year, see how things lie in training camp and then act accordingly. If you end up with a top five pick again but feel like you have your QB, options open up.
If the team - not the Krafts, but Mayo and Wolf - can communicate a coherent plan to the fan base and drum up excitement, it’s in everyone’s best interest.
What the fans want shouldn’t be a consideration until the team is back in fighting shape. Put an entertaining product on the field that’s worth rooting for and they’ll come around.
I’m sure this would be anathema to most, but trading #3 for mostly future picks and tanking next year would probably be the path to a better team, especially if they think Maye is not the one. Get a LT project around 20, take a WR in the second, and then the BPA in the third, try and start to rebuild the roster. Better to win 5 games in 2024 than 8.
I kind of doubt it, because all of these come back to the same issue.... you need a top QB to consistently compete and there are very few paths to that QB. This is one of the Best QB drafts of the decade, Now could the 3rd pick bust out... absolutely, always a risk. BUT.... the odds you'll be in position to draft a prospect that good at QB anytime soon is pretty low.
I hear you. The big question is whether they think the #3 quarterback this year could be that guy or not. I guess if he’s not, you’re probably crapping out again anyway, the “only” thing you’ve lost is the value that coin could have brought your roster in other places.
Naw. I just don’t like unforced errors that render the state I love less competitive. That includes taxes (millionaires tax, short term cap gains) but also things like housing (should be building far more) and issues around child care (need way more to bring cost down). Anyway none of that is super relevant to this thread outside of me finding it interesting multiple people are saying the Patriots are less competitive moving forward because of it.
The only states with NFL teams and no income tax are Florida, Nevada, Texas, and Washington, right? How are property tax rates in those states? How do all the other states get free agents?
I’m pretty sure the taxes issue is more complicated than just where your home team plays. I think athletes still pay taxes as nonresidents in states where they play away games. Obviously playing half your games in a tax free state is nice but if you have to play the Niners and the Giants away you are paying taxes. So, it’s an advantage, but not as easy as saying “X state’s players pay 5 percent more taxes.”
yeah, it's a very minor factor for some players, not at all for others. I honestly would bet that the weather is a bigger one for more guys, and the mediocre appeal of the cities. LA teams have zero problem getting top athletes and the taxes are much higher, same with the NY teams.
If you were a free agent, all things being equal, why would you ever sign in Massachusetts? Seriously. What advantage does this place have
In 2024 that's relevant to professional athletes?
I say this as a resident of Massachusetts who grew up in Foxboro.
I can come up with two reasons, a lot of money, like a lot more than a different city, or a better chance to win.
It's pretty clear the Patriots aren't winning, so they are left with the option of paying lots of money. Enough money to forget about the weather and the high taxes.
The appeal of Massachusetts has been schools and healthcare. Those are essentially irrelevant to high priced free agents because they can afford the best private schools and to travel to get whatever healthcare they need, should those services not be readily accessible near their homes.
If I'm being honest with myself, I am acknowledging that overpaying for 1 or 2 marquee free agents is necessary to establish some credibility.
I dont think it's hopeless, because I am optimistic about both Wolf and Mayo's abilities to do their jobs. I hate the process that led to both of them being in their current positions but I like both of them. But I do not believe the Krafts have properly come to terms of the reality of this situation.
It's not just the team sucking, it's a lot more than that, and they need to account for the new dynamics going forward.
In 2024 that's relevant to professional athletes?
I say this as a resident of Massachusetts who grew up in Foxboro.
I can come up with two reasons, a lot of money, like a lot more than a different city, or a better chance to win.
It's pretty clear the Patriots aren't winning, so they are left with the option of paying lots of money. Enough money to forget about the weather and the high taxes.
The appeal of Massachusetts has been schools and healthcare. Those are essentially irrelevant to high priced free agents because they can afford the best private schools and to travel to get whatever healthcare they need, should those services not be readily accessible near their homes.
If I'm being honest with myself, I am acknowledging that overpaying for 1 or 2 marquee free agents is necessary to establish some credibility.
I dont think it's hopeless, because I am optimistic about both Wolf and Mayo's abilities to do their jobs. I hate the process that led to both of them being in their current positions but I like both of them. But I do not believe the Krafts have properly come to terms of the reality of this situation.
It's not just the team sucking, it's a lot more than that, and they need to account for the new dynamics going forward.
We have this discussion pretty much every year in every sport and I honestly think location matters very little. In the NFL especially, the deciding factor is going to be guaranteed money and secondarily chance to win. The Patriots has no problems signing free agents for most of the last 20 years.
Man, players go to Green Bay, they go to Buffalo. Give them the most money and they'll come unless they're an established veteran close to retirement looking for a ring. It's not rocket science.
I check every day praying for a new thread around a significant addition and it never comes. It's like the Red Sox offseason all over again
Players want to be rewarded for their effort and risk, primarily financially or with meaning (winning), and ideally both. All things being equal, they'll make personal decisions based on professional relationships, family, personal interests, whatever, just like anyone else. Can't surprise anyone that the current iteration of the Pats is not a super attractive destination. That can change quickly. (Also, climate change. MA will be TN but with longer days before we know it!)
The parallel is striking considering NE had their "full throttle" moment when Mayo came out just after being hired and said they would be spending cash this off-season. I don't think many expected 90% of that cash being used to retain the existing core. Full throttle 2 Electric Bugaloo
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100% of your salary still is taxed at the home state(I.e MA if you play for the Patriots) then there are deductions for taxes paid to other states. For example, So if you play an away game in a tax free state MA taxes you on all of it.
This team doesn't have a foundation. Its best players, save for Gonzalez (and he's kind of a wild card considering how many games he's played) and Judon (who's on the back nine), are at the least valuable positions in football. You know why we couldn't find a QB, Tackle, or WR in FA? Because every team in the league is looking for one of those positions, if not two (or bad teams, three). Scarcity is why we're talking ourselves into thinking that Calvin Ridley, maybe like the 30th best receiver in the NFL if I'm being generous, is a "top free agent target."
The best teams build through the draft, then fill holes in FA with big signings when they have a foundation. The lack of FA movement this offseason is kind of irrelevant for the Patriots. Everything is going to depend on how they do the next couple of drafts and if they can find long term starters at the most valuable positions in football. If they can't, then it's going to be a tough few years... but that will have nothing to do with them not signing Calvin Ridley this offseason.
I'm happy that this team is being real about the state of the roster and not talking themselves into the "this is a playoff team with an average QB" nonsense. Yes, this team with an average QB and an easy schedule could hypothetically go 10-7 and then get whooped in the first round. As we've seen, that's not sustainable. It's not even fun. Take the slow and low approach, improve the roster, get younger (this team was the 27th oldest in the league last year!), and try to build a team that can get into the playoffs repeatedly over many years.
The best teams build through the draft, then fill holes in FA with big signings when they have a foundation. The lack of FA movement this offseason is kind of irrelevant for the Patriots. Everything is going to depend on how they do the next couple of drafts and if they can find long term starters at the most valuable positions in football. If they can't, then it's going to be a tough few years... but that will have nothing to do with them not signing Calvin Ridley this offseason.
I'm happy that this team is being real about the state of the roster and not talking themselves into the "this is a playoff team with an average QB" nonsense. Yes, this team with an average QB and an easy schedule could hypothetically go 10-7 and then get whooped in the first round. As we've seen, that's not sustainable. It's not even fun. Take the slow and low approach, improve the roster, get younger (this team was the 27th oldest in the league last year!), and try to build a team that can get into the playoffs repeatedly over many years.
Just went back to read the 2021 thread on signing Jonnu. So many were very excited and happy with the signing, and we know how that worked out. FA is a dangerous game and it's almost always better to sign your own players and invest in outside undervalued guys. But that's not as exciting as throwing a huge bag at Jonnu, or Golladay, or Teron Armstead, or Chandler Jones, or JC Jackson, or...
True, but we signed all of our own players worth keeping and still have $50 million in cap space.
As long as we only cite the guys who didn't work out. How about throwing a bag at Matt Judon?
1) They haven't signed all their own players worth keeping; Barmore and Judon still need signing and will cost against the current cap.
2) Having $50m in space doesn't mean they should spend recklessly on mid or questionable talent. Keeping the cap space open provides flexibility for trades and unexpected players becoming available.
Judon was a great signing, so was Gilmore. I'm not saying you should never throw a bag at FAs. I am saying that Ridley, Jonah Williams, and Tyron Smith aren't those level of players. Spending for the sake of spending is dumb.
This post is tremendous. Completely, 100% agree. It's all about the 2024 and 2025 drafts at this point. If they do find 2 of those 3 positions in the draft (or in a perfect world, all three), then you can look to spend on some high ticket items in free agency next year and hopefully open your window of opportunity for those next 4 years while your QB is still cheap.