Sorry if you've already addressed this somewhere, but ... at 14 and not trading out, you have a choice between a sure-fire No. 1 corner or a sure-fire No. 1 LT -- which do you pick?
Patriots' Priorities for the 2023 Season
- Thread starter bsj
- Start date
Yesterday was bizarre. Two KO returns for TDs. Then two bombs for TDs. One on a scramble play where the D had to cover for a long time and then the other on 3rd and long on a PERFECT pass and catch. I mean, they all count and those were real TDs and real yards gained by Buffalo but man.....
I fully expect Mac to be the starter next season, but I think there will be a strong backup signed in the offseason to both challenge Mac, but also add insurance. I think we'll see 3-4 QBs in camp next season.
OL: I think that they need two tackles and a guard. Hopefully two of those three are starting quality now. I'm assuming one by draft, one by signing. Please carry more functional OL this year and someone who won't average 1+ penalties per game like Trent.
S: McCourty replacement
WR: Add a plus receiver, slot or X, I don't care. Doesn't even need to be a classic #1, but real talent. Someone who can get separation.
CB: Probably need another legit corner, assuming that Jack Jones situation gets worked out. If not, two.
p.s. I'm assuming that ending the catastrophe of a coaching staff on offense and special teams is a given
S: McCourty replacement
WR: Add a plus receiver, slot or X, I don't care. Doesn't even need to be a classic #1, but real talent. Someone who can get separation.
CB: Probably need another legit corner, assuming that Jack Jones situation gets worked out. If not, two.
p.s. I'm assuming that ending the catastrophe of a coaching staff on offense and special teams is a given
I'm thinking the exact opposite: I think they'll draft a project in the late rounds and stash him in the PS. Expecting only Mac and Zappe on the 53.
That's so tough - depends what they do in FA. I'd lean OT as you can get free agent corners for cheaper. Although the value of a true shutdown corner is higher than a great LT. Having an island guy lets you do so much more on defense. Ugh. Great question. Personally none of the LTs this year are super special... soooooo maybe corner but full disclosure I haven't gotten to corners yet.
Fully agree. I was listing the QBs they beat because I don't think DVOA adjusts for the fact that they played Miami with Thompson instead of Tua, Arizona with McCoy instead of Murray, Pittsburgh with Trubitsky instead of Pickett, or even the Jets with Wilson instead of White. The defense is certainly good and maybe very good, I just have a hard time definitively saying they were a Top 5 unit, but certainly the offense did close to nothing to help them out.
But I think everyone agrees the focus in the offseason should be largely on fixing the offense, which was horrendous no matter how you slice it.
The flip side of this is that there were a number of games where the defense looked shaky early and the offense couldn't get into a groove and establish the run game. I do think that played a factor in a few of the losses, even if they settled down and finished the game strong. The offense wasn't good enough for the defense to put them behind.
Such a weird season.
People seemed super encouraged by Kenny Pickett this year.
245-389 (63.0%), 2,404 yds, 6.2 y/a, 7 td, 9 int, 76.7 rating
Last 3 games (all wins): 54-95 (56.8%), 607 yds, 6.4 y/a, 3 td, 1 int, 82.2 rating. Team scored 13 points against Vegas, 16 against Baltimore, and 28 against Cle for an average of 19.0 points a game. In the last 3 games, Pickett's best game (vs. LV), where he completed 66.7% of his passes for the most yards of the three (244), was the game they scored the fewest amount of points (13).
I don't get it.
245-389 (63.0%), 2,404 yds, 6.2 y/a, 7 td, 9 int, 76.7 rating
Last 3 games (all wins): 54-95 (56.8%), 607 yds, 6.4 y/a, 3 td, 1 int, 82.2 rating. Team scored 13 points against Vegas, 16 against Baltimore, and 28 against Cle for an average of 19.0 points a game. In the last 3 games, Pickett's best game (vs. LV), where he completed 66.7% of his passes for the most yards of the three (244), was the game they scored the fewest amount of points (13).
I don't get it.
As for the season review, they were fortunate to win a few, unfortunate to lose a few, and probably ended up where they belonged. They were dead average.
The one outlier game, and it kept them out of the playoffs, was Chicago. Just an incredible loss. A lot of posters seem to want to let the Pats off the hook. It was the Justin Fields coming out party, the Pats hadn’t seen this on film, Blah, Blah.
This is the only factoid that should be considered here. The Bears started 2-1. Over the next 14 weeks they lost every single game…except one, when they inexplicably nuked NE in Foxboro 33-14.
If you take out the Pats game, after week 3, Chicago went:
0-13
Outscored 406-274
Average of 31-21
Average losing every game by double digits.
After week 3 they were one of the worst teams in NFL history, and yet the came into NE and skunked the Pats by about 3 touchdowns.
Absolutely has to be top 3 regular season loss for the Pats under Beli.
The one outlier game, and it kept them out of the playoffs, was Chicago. Just an incredible loss. A lot of posters seem to want to let the Pats off the hook. It was the Justin Fields coming out party, the Pats hadn’t seen this on film, Blah, Blah.
This is the only factoid that should be considered here. The Bears started 2-1. Over the next 14 weeks they lost every single game…except one, when they inexplicably nuked NE in Foxboro 33-14.
If you take out the Pats game, after week 3, Chicago went:
0-13
Outscored 406-274
Average of 31-21
Average losing every game by double digits.
After week 3 they were one of the worst teams in NFL history, and yet the came into NE and skunked the Pats by about 3 touchdowns.
Absolutely has to be top 3 regular season loss for the Pats under Beli.
I think the Niners were fully committed this season to having Jeff Wilson and Elijah Mitchell split time this year, with Mitchell probably taking the lead later in the season after he had such a good rookie year last year. They let Mostert walk for short money to Miami and then Mitchell went down with an injury in week 1 and went on IR.
That left them just Wilson and basically nobody else who could run the ball not named Deebo. Wilson got dinged up in the Atlanta game that they lost, and the only other guy they really had was the corpse of Tevin Coleman. So they went out and got CMC.
The Niners front office is so damn good.
Yes they are. They're also lucky? I mean, they spent a ton of capital to move up to draft Lance, who it may turn out is not good at all. That's a bad play there. And JG is a solid player but he's injury prone. So they went into the year with:
- A guy they spent a ton on to draft as their #1 QB but who may not be good,
- An injury-prone guy as the backup, and
- An absolute wild card 7th round pick as the #3 guy.
They pretty much lucked out at QB - and we don't really know that Purdy's clock won't strike midnight here in the playoffs.
Then at RB, as you mentioned, they really didn't have a ton of depth, and predictably, guys got hurt, but they were able to swing the deal for McCaffrey, who is obviously great, but who also is a MAJOR injury risk, and they're fortunate he hasn't gotten hurt.
So yes they are good at this, but they're also really lucky too, I think.
I think they made a real mistake rushing Mac back for this game. Team was rolling under Zappe in all three phases. Putting Mac in at that time threw them off. Not to absolve the D of responsibility for the loss, but I think the QB change had a big role in the team’s overall psychology.
The front office also really missed on Solomon Thomas and Rueben Foster in the 2017 draft (they could have taken Mahomes but were waiting for Cousins to hit FA). The front office has been good, but they lucked into Bosa when Jimmy G got hurt and they got the second pick.
They did an amazing job by getting one of the top TEs in football in round 5 and one of the best linebackers in round 3. They also got a really really good WR in round 2 (Deebo). In the 2020 draft they got a starting safety and RB in rounds 5 and 6. They have also made some awesome trades - CMC and Trent Williams.
Basically, they have hit several home runs but they have had some really bad swings and misses, but not enough to cripple the team.
Edit - link to draft history https://www.drafthistory.com/teams/49ers.html
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I think you can look at it the other way. They've been really unlucky at QB. Trey Lance getting hurt isn't good luck, by any means. Jimmy G. getting hurt isn't good luck. Brock Purdy being a good game manager isn't luck, it's a product of putting guys around him that make him better than he is, and giving him coaching/schemes that put him in a position to succeed.
If that Lance pick hits, we're talking about a potential year in year out NFC Championship game team for years to come. Even with their top 2 QB's going down, they are the #2 seed in the NFC. That's what happens when you put together the best defense in football and surround your young/injury prone/inexperienced QB's with great players and great coaching.
Every team in the NFL needs some luck. If Pat Mahomes goes down with an injury, the Chiefs are fucked. Same with Buffalo, IMO. If Burrow doesn't play well, Cincy struggles. I don't see any of those teams with great QB's getting the #2 seed if faced with what SF has faced this year at QB.
The 2022/23 Pats were pretty "eh", as noted in several previous responses. And/or as some coach said - "You are what you are."
1. Get a new OC
2. Get a new ST coach (Judge?)
3. Draft well:
OL
WR
DB
LB
K/P
Moving away from Jones after 2 seasons, shouldn't happen. Building up the team around him and, as a result seeing significant improvement in both QB play and the overall offense is/should be the plan.
If, after making those changes, QB play still stands out as an issue, then it's time to make changes.
1. Get a new OC
2. Get a new ST coach (Judge?)
3. Draft well:
OL
WR
DB
LB
K/P
Moving away from Jones after 2 seasons, shouldn't happen. Building up the team around him and, as a result seeing significant improvement in both QB play and the overall offense is/should be the plan.
If, after making those changes, QB play still stands out as an issue, then it's time to make changes.
Every team swings and misses, but they have more home runs than anyone else either, IMO.
And it's not even just the studs, like Bosa and Deebo and Kittle. Look at their roster.
Tayshaun Gipson was brought in on a 1yr, 1mil deal this offseason. He has 5 picks and 141 return yards. Hufanga, as you note, was a 5th rounder, and is a stud for them at safety. Fred Warner is one of the best OLB's in the league, IMO, and they found him in the 3rd round (70th overall), leads the team in tackles. Greenlaw has 127 tackles for them at the other linebacker, he was a 5th rounder (148th overall). They've got another 5th rounder in Lenoir playing DB, and starting who is 5th on the team in tackles. They went out and signed Charvarius Ward to a 3yr/40mil with 26mil guaranteed, from KC, an undrafted player, who has started every game for them at CB, and is 4th on the team in tackles.
They are doing a lot more right than wrong.
He's kinda the opposite of 2021 Mac in that he struggled to execute the offense but showed an ability to make plays out of structure and put together some drives to win games late. In a way I get the excitement if you're a Steelers fan, but watching him without an active interest in his development I didn't see a lot there, to be honest. A lot of routine throws missed consistently.
Oh for sure. That is why I edited the post and put in the draft history. They have been great.
The only real miss was the 2017 draft when they didn't take a QB, specifically because the plan was to wait for Kirk Cousins (at least that is what the local reporters said). When a team's only real huge miss was rectified by getting a young starting QB by the next trade deadline, things are pretty good.
I mean I also listed out Warner in my post (e.g., "one of the best linebackers in round 3"). I think you and I are in agreement on the 49ers being a great example of well run and coached team.
To me, I don't think they can be picky about positions at 14. They need talent infusions up and down the roster. It will depends on who is available, but if there's a really good receiver or safety at 14 and it's better value than the OT or corner still on the board take the BPA.
Steen and the Northwestern LT both sound like Matt Light types--good off the field guys who could be dependable LTs but not like dancing bears. You look at either?
He wasn't Mitch Trubisky. So there's that.
I think the Pats will sign Orlando Brown Jr. to LT, trade for a possession receiver, draft a TE in the 1st round, OG/C in rounds 3 and 4, slot WR later, and go in with Parker as their WR1. I think they'll let Meyers go.
On defense, they'll sign draft a safety in the 2nd and two CBs in round 4 (they have three 4th rounders), and bring back both Peppers and Old Friend Duron Harmon to camp to see if he can cut it at FS as a McCourty replacement.
As for the coaching, I just hope BB recognizes that it's time to bring in replacement OC, OL and WR coaches. My fear (zero foundation) is that BB's deal with Kraft is for a set amount of $$$ for the whole coaching staff, and every dollar not spent goes back to BB's pocket. That way, Matty and Judge would get minimum money from the Pats, work to improve their reputations, while still getting DET/NYG contract money. That's the only explanation I have for the certifiably nutty experiment.
This could go in a bunch of threads, but since it seems like this is being used as a general season end thread (click through to see all of it):
View: https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1612516357332951054
Baldwin's stat charts.
Basically about what you'd expect... our defense was good, and generally pretty consistent at stopping drives.
Our offense was bad at sustaining drives.
We were very good at stopping series conversion on D and bad at converting on offense
Both charting and production numbers put Mac as a below average to bad QB this year.
Very conservative on 4th downs (both in clear go situations and toss-ups)
View: https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1612516357332951054
Baldwin's stat charts.
Basically about what you'd expect... our defense was good, and generally pretty consistent at stopping drives.
Our offense was bad at sustaining drives.
We were very good at stopping series conversion on D and bad at converting on offense
Both charting and production numbers put Mac as a below average to bad QB this year.
Very conservative on 4th downs (both in clear go situations and toss-ups)
I see Steen as a round 3-4 guy. Maybe he can be a functional starter. Don't love him. Super underdeveloped hands and bad hand placement as a run blocker for a guy his age is disappointing. Skoronski however imo is not an OT. He is an OG. Length issues pop up all over his tape. He'd be a very good OZ guard or a LG Thuney type who is versatile. His arms aren't even, reportedly, 32.5 inches. It's super apparent too on tape - it would be one thing if he mitigated it well but he's had issues pop up frequently. Luckily he has really good footwork and athleticism and recovery but for me the cutoff is tape based and if I see your lack of length show up a ton of film I can't sign off on you, you know? Not all short-armed guys have problems. Slater, for example, had short arms for an OT but you didn't see length being that big an issue most of the time on tape.
The bolded is talk radio nonsense that was debunked when it came up in a different thread.
Holy shit, that is one of the dumbest things I've ever read. And I hang out in game threads.
Edit: Beaten by @lexrageorge
Super simplified:
- The defense has a lot of young talent, threatening to be a very good to great defense in years to come with a few infusions of talent.
- The offense was horrific, yet has a very good young talented RB to build around who can run and catch. That's a huge advantage.
- The special teams is horrific, but doesn't demand a huge allocation of cap spend to improve it.
Therefore:
- Prioritize the O-line. A good O-Line + a very good young RB will do wonders for the entire team. This opens up play-action, RPO, etc which can make Mac look far better. Parker + Thornton showed flashes of being good parts of the offense when healthy.
- Defense is young. The D-line with Judon, Uche, Barmore look to be as asset.
I'd probably prioritize O-line in FA/trade AND a top two round draft pick. Also agree with SMU up thread where a shut down corner with the rest of this defense would be really, really compelling.... That said, Belichick seems to have a gift at finding quality corners, so I'm not as concerned about this needing to get done in the first round.
- The defense has a lot of young talent, threatening to be a very good to great defense in years to come with a few infusions of talent.
- The offense was horrific, yet has a very good young talented RB to build around who can run and catch. That's a huge advantage.
- The special teams is horrific, but doesn't demand a huge allocation of cap spend to improve it.
Therefore:
- Prioritize the O-line. A good O-Line + a very good young RB will do wonders for the entire team. This opens up play-action, RPO, etc which can make Mac look far better. Parker + Thornton showed flashes of being good parts of the offense when healthy.
- Defense is young. The D-line with Judon, Uche, Barmore look to be as asset.
I'd probably prioritize O-line in FA/trade AND a top two round draft pick. Also agree with SMU up thread where a shut down corner with the rest of this defense would be really, really compelling.... That said, Belichick seems to have a gift at finding quality corners, so I'm not as concerned about this needing to get done in the first round.
Honestly I think they need a passcatching back. I like Rham, he's more well rounded than Harris, but he's not a weapon in the pass game really, more a reliable dump-off catcher, he doesn't create mismatches the way real receiving backs do.
Isn't that what everyone kinda does? Shitty QBs are shitty QBs because teams beat up on them and elite QBs are elite QBs because teams don't.
As far as getting a new OC, does anyone else have a suspicion that there was a gentleman's agreement for Bill O'Brien to return to Pats as the OC after his contract ends in Alabama? That maybe the OC 'experiment' was really just a stopgap measure until he became available? Matt P then gets kicked back to the Ernie Adams office. Not sure about Judge though. I do not have anything concrete to back this up, other than my spider senses have been tingling.
Good tweet by Kyed about the Pats massive roster/cap flexibility heading into this offseason depending on how deeply they choose to rebuild:
View: https://twitter.com/DougKyed/status/1612527221494669363?s=20&t=tO9ggJ8tXwl1lasnetCwGg
View: https://twitter.com/DougKyed/status/1612527221494669363?s=20&t=tO9ggJ8tXwl1lasnetCwGg
As a general rule...
Bad teams are so-so against bad QBs, get beaten by mediocre QBs, and get crushed by elite QBs.
Mediocre teams beat bad QBs, are so-so against mediocre QBs, and get beaten by elite QBs.
Good teams crush bad QBs, beat mediocre QBs, and are so-so against elite QBs.
I don't know why they'd want to tear the roster down to the studs. They have a very good defense - no need to tear that down. They have a good stable of RBs - no need to tear that down. They need to figure out specialists, offensive line, quarterback (stick with Mac or move on), and add talent to the WR and TE positions. Not a small list of things to do but why "tear it down to the studs"? The team isn't that bad.
Relative to other teams in the league, the Patriots should be saving a lot of money at the QB and RB position between Mac, Zappe, Rham, Strong, Harris. They should be able to use some of that offseason cap space to improve areas core to the team (O-LINE) if they choose. I'd think this is a huge competitive advantage relative to other teams.
I like Henry but does that say we can save $10M by cutting him? If so, that restructure needs to happen this week.
I want Bourne back, but as always, it's $$ dependent.
Super interesting interview with Scar. From someone that has been in the building with Bill for so long:
View: https://youtu.be/TG8IcauvHP0
View: https://youtu.be/TG8IcauvHP0
The one big takeaway from that interview was that nothing happens without going through Bill. Sounds like some of the offensive changes might have been given the green light or even a directive from Bill.
Edit: on Cole Strange "I think he did ok". Not exactly glowing endorsement
Edit: on Cole Strange "I think he did ok". Not exactly glowing endorsement
Good interview. Scar, as always, is direct. He avoids issuing an opinion on what should happen with the offensive staff beyond reciting what the options are and pointing out the obvious that the offensive performance was unacceptable this year. But there are some interesting nuggets in there. For one, he categorically states that he thinks the Pats will keep trying to build around Mac. I also read his statement about everything going through Bill to suggest that needed change can come not just through staffing changes but also just through changes in approach regardless of who is implementing the approach. This isn’t a revolutionary point, but it’s a good reminder that tunnel vision on Patricia or other coaches - and I’m guilty of it, too - isn’t necessarily the ideal way to think about the offensive problems.
Can anyone explain why BB did what he did then? Patricia and Judge, in roles ill-suited given their careers, seemed nonsense on its face, and proved itself out as the season went on. I can't think of any logical reason, so I'm forced to look to illogical. @lexrageorge I'm not a talk radio listener, and haven't heard it debunked. Happy to hear otherwise.
Thank you for the summary as well as posts by @EL Jeffe, @Super Nomario and of course @SMU_Sox.
There are many other good posts here but these stand out because they are trying to be objective with their analysis. That's clearly hard for most of us to do, especially in the harsh light of a playoffs free season, but its necessary. It also helps to remind us here that teams can shift their fortunes a bit with a good off-season. Maybe we dont need to brace for the sky just yet.
Finally, I have to believe OL and maybe some O weapons will be a priority. From my perspective, the lack of protection and weapons around Mac was the teams biggest limiting factor (I know some here believe it to be BB and maybe they are correct but its not my conclusion) and was the main driver for many of their losses.
Is there any chance that Mills could be a candidate to take over for DMC in centerfield in 2023?
You also can't run him out there for 100% of the snaps. I think Damian Harris is gone. Rham can't be asked to play 3 downs, especially with his style of running. They need a third down, change of pace guy, who can come in and make plays in the passing game, but equally important, can pick up a blitz. Rham isn't really good at picking up blitzes.
Because he thought it would work out, is my guess.
One should never misinterpret independent choice as coerced action.
Correct me if I am missing anything.
Pats' draft picks for 2023:
Pats' draft picks for 2023:
- Their own. Now known for sure as #14.
- Their own. So roughly #45 overall. (Miami loses their first round pick)
- Added the Panthers' (pick swap last year) probably coming in around #72 overall; lost their own (Dolphins in Parker trade).
- Their own; plus the Rams' (via Sony Michel trade). So probably the 6th and 14th picks in the round. Plus a compensatory pick at the end of the round (JC Jackson). OvertheCap projects it as the highest comp pick in the round so call it #98-ish overall.
- none (traded theirs to Ravens for Shaun Wade; Ravens then sent it to the Bears in Roquan Smith deal)
- Their own; the Panthers' (via Gilmore trade); the Raiders (via Stidham trade). Plus a compensatory pick at the end of the round (Ted Karras) OvertheCap projects it as the first comp pick in the round.
- None (went to the Raiders in the aforementioned Stidham trade, but it might have since moved on to either the Falcons or the Chiefs or not). But possibly a compensatory pick at the end of the round (Brandon Bolden) -- OvertheCap projects it as the last comp pick in the round, so Mr Irrelevant.
I wonder how much McKinnon will cost coming off his one-year deal with the Chiefs. Believe he set or tied the single season receiving TD mark for RBs, so probably not cheap and he might’ve overplayed his talents a bit in that lineup, but he’s amazing in space and seems sure handed.
What makes you say roles they were ill-suited for? Example- Patricia has been an O line coach in the past. He has been a coordinator. Offense/Defense doesn't really matter. Defensive coaches have to understand what the offense is doing. Offensive coaches have to understand what the defense is doing. There is no dark art to either side of football. Coaching is teaching. He obviously believed from past experience with them that Judge and Patricia were good teachers. The offense did get better as the season went on.
Guard seems pretty close to the last position on the roster that they need. They just invested a 1st on Strange and Onwenu was one of the best guards in the league this year
I'd be fine with replacing Bourne with a guy like Darius Slayton who will come far cheaper with the same skillset and a much higher upside.