Using this as a standard -
https://ftw.usatoday.com/gallery/nfl-mock-draft-2022-consensus-round-1-final
Here's their methodology: "We’re using a bunch of mocks — specifically,
our latest mock from Christian D’Andrea, one from
Draft Wire,
ESPN’s Matt Miller,
CBS Sports and
NFL.com. We look at the picks each made and average out each player’s positions and match them to
each of the first 32 picks. Anyone left out of a first-round mock was assigned the 33rd pick."
Comparing their "consensus" 1st round mock draft with where those players actually went.
1. Aidan Hutchinson - 1st round, #2 - diff of 1
2. Travon Walker - 1st round, #1 - diff of 1
3. Kayvon Thibodeaux - 1st round, #5 - diff of 2
4. Ahmad Gardner - 1st round, #4 - diff of 0
5. Evan Neal - 1st round, #7 - diff of 2
6. Ikem Ekwonu - 1st round, #6 - diff of 0
7. Derek Stingley - 1st round, #3 - diff of 4
8. Jermaine Johnson - 1st round, #26 - diff of 18
9. Charles Cross - 1st round, #9 - diff of 0
10. Kenny Pickett - 1st round, #20 - diff of 10
11. Kyle Hamilton - 1st round, #14 - diff of 3
12. Garrett Wilson - 1st round, #10 - diff of 2
13. Malik Willis - 3rd round, #86 - diff of 73
14. Drake London - 1st round, #8 - diff of 6
15. Trevor Penning - 1st round, #19 - diff of 4
16. Trent McDuffie - 1st round, #21 - diff of 5
17. Jordan Davis - 1st round, #13 - diff of 4
18. Jameson Williams - 1st round, #12 - diff of 6
19. Devin Lloyd - 1st round, #27 - diff of 8
20. Chris Olave - 1st round, #11 - diff of 9
21. Zion Johnson - 1st round, #17 - diff of 4
22. Treylon Burks - 1st round, #18 - diff of 4
23. George Karlaftis - 1st round, #30 - diff of 7
24. Andrew Booth - 2nd round, #42 - diff of 18
25. Tyler Linderbaum - 1st round, #25 - diff of 0
26. Kenyon Green - 1st round, #15 - diff of 11
27. Devonte Wyatt - 1st round, #28 - diff of 1
28. Jahan Dotson - 1st round, #16 - diff of 12
29. Tyler Smith - 1st round, #24 - diff of 5
30. Desmond Ridder - 2nd round, #74 - diff of 44
31. Lewis Cine - 1st round, #32 - diff of 1
32. Daxton Hill - 1st round, #31 - diff of 1
Actual 1st rounders and where the Sporting News 7-round mock draft had them
22. Quay Walker - projected 3rd round, #70 - diff of 48
23. Kaiir Elam - projected 2nd round, #37 - diff of 14
29. Cole Strange - projected 3rd round, #90 - diff of 61
So let's evaluate these 35 picks - the 32 projected in the first round, and then the 3 who weren't, but who actually got drafted in the first round.
- 29 of 35 (82.9%) were correctly projected in the round in which they were drafted.
- 20 of 35 (57.1%) were projected +/- 5 spots from where they were drafted.
- 12 of 35 (34.3%) were projected +/1 3 spots from where they were drafted.
Using this tool - the updated draft value chart -
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp ... here's some interesting info...
- Jermaine Johnson was projected at #8 (406 points), and dropped to #26 (223 points). That's a difference of 183 points.
- Malik Willis was projected at #13 (336 points), and dropped to #86 (49 points). That's a difference of 287 points.
- Andrew Booth was projected at #24 (237 points), and dropped to #42 (142 points). That's a difference of 95 points.
- Desmond Ridder was projected at #30 (196 points), and dropped to #74 (64 points). That's a difference of 132 points.
- Kenny Pickett was projected at #10 (369 points), and dropped to #20 (269 points). That's a difference of 100 points.
- Drake London was projected at #14 (325 points), and rose to #8 (406 points). That's a difference of 81 points.
- Quay Walker was projected at #70 (70 points), and rose to #22 (253 points). That's a difference of 183 points.
- Kaiir Elam was projected at #37 (162 points), and rose to #23 (245 points). That's a difference of 83 points.
- Cole Strange was projected at #90 (45 points), and rose to #29 (203 points). That's a difference of 158 points.
So I think for the most part, the consensus mock drafts did a pretty good job. But Cole Strange was not the biggest mover among these 35 players, if you are looking at the draft value chart. Jermaine Johnson's drop from #8 to #26 was a bigger difference in terms of value than Cole Strange's rise from #90 to #29. Quay Walker's rise from #70 to #22 was also bigger than Strange's rise, from a value point of view.
Now looking at that Sporting News mock, here's the Patriots' selections compared to their mock (along with +/- draft value points)...Note: any UDFA automatically got placed in spot #263, since there were 262 players drafted.
1-29 (203 pts) - Cole Strange - projected 3-90 (45 pts) - diff of 61 spots, diff of 158 pts
2-50 (115 pts) - Tyquan Thornton - projected 5-166 (9 pts) - diff of 116 spots, diff of 106 pts
3-85 (50 pts) - Marcus Jones - projected 3-91 (44 pts) - diff of 6 spots, diff of 6 pts
4-121 (25 pts) - Jack Jones - projected 7-244 (2 pts) - diff of 123 spots, diff of 23 pts
4-127 (22 pts) - Pierre Strong - projected 5-179 (7 pts) - diff of 52 spots, diff of 15 pts
4-137 (18 pts) - Bailey Zappe - projected 4-122 (25 pts) - diff of 15 spots, diff of 7 pts
6-183 (7 pts) - Kevin Harris - projected UDFA (0 pts) - diff of 80 spots, diff of 7 pts
6-200 (5 pts) - Sam Roberts - projected UDFA (0 pts) - diff of 63 spots, diff of 5 pts
6-210 (4 pts) - Chasen Hines - projected 7-250 (2 pts) - diff of 40 spots, diff of 2 pts
7-245 (2 pts) - Andrew Stueber - projected UDFA (0 pts) - diff of 18 spots, diff of 2 pts
So of their 10 picks, NE drafted 9 of them higher than projected. And the one guy that they drafted lower than projected was a QB that many people didn't even think was on NE's radar, given that they've already got three QBs on the roster. On average, NE drafted their players 54 spots higher than projected.