Hope Adrian Phillips and Dugger are back and healthy. If they aren't I think they lose.
Offensively the Colts run 11 65%, 12 22%, 21 6%, and 13 6%. So basically 2/3rds 11 and 1/3 heavy. In 11 they run it 38% of the time and have success 52% of the time on those runs. So they can run it and well from lighter personnel. They only have success throwing it 44% of the time from 11 and part of that is because their WRs are not a strength. When you look at their passing success rate it is below 50% for all of the above personnel groupings mins 21 and they throw it almost 50% of the time in 21. Their run success is above 50% in all of those positional groupings. That's scary. I think going big nickel and base are going to be key because you are more worried about them running it. This matchup reminds me of the Browns - force Wentz to throw it against base and don't let Taylor and that run game going. Phillips and Dugger are so crucial to this game not just because they will cover the slots/TEs/and Rbs but also because they are going to be crucial plugging the run. Also, Godchaux, Davis, Ekuale, Guy, and Barmore need to have big games. If you can't stop the Colts running up the gut (which they do ~10% more than the NFL average) this is going to be a long day.
Defensively the Colts tend to play more zone than average but disguise their coverage a lot. I haven't had a chance to deep dive them this year but they still, I think, play a lot of cover 3 mixed in with 2-high looks. They also drop in Tampa-2 stuff... no really they do and that is like a changeup that catches QBs by surprise. They use a 4-3 base but now-a-days that's a 4-2-5. They have a tough line to run on especially up the middle. If I am the Pats I use a lot of pin-pulls, crack-tosses, outside zone, counters, etc and run off of left and right tackle or left end. The reason for that is while the Colts are so solid up the middle against the run they have not been as successful with outside runs. This is also going to be an important game for Mason, Andrews, Karras, and Jakob Johnson getting to the 2nd level because the Colts LBs are so good in pursuit - they have rangy guys. The Patriots run it up the middle even more than the Colts but this is not the day you want to do that - and since they run anything under the sun they should be able to adjust appropriately.
Last note for the defense... they confused the hell out of Josh Allen with post-snap trickery. Mac is vulnerable to that like any QB especially a rookie is. So I do worry about turnovers especially when I think the Pats will schematically want to throw more because that is where the advantage is vs the Colts. I do wonder though how well the Colts will defend against gap/power/lead concepts that are run off-tackle. I could see that being a surprising area where the Pats find some success.
It should be a close game on paper. If Dugger and Phillips are healthy I ever-so-slightly like their odds. The Colts are a good team and are well-coached on both sides of the ball. This has the potential to be a real gem of a game. Hope our guys come out on top.
