Pats-Dolphins discussion

DJnVa

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Folks can get into the X's and O's and whether Pats should rest folks below, but some statistical milestones are within reach in this game.

And yes, I am aware that there's 17 games and some of these aren't as impressive as they may seem, but whatever, I'm bored.

Jones: 23 completions to be #3 all-time for rookie completions.
Jones: 200 yards to be #6 all-time for rookie passing yards, 242 yards to be #5.
Jones: 3 TDs to be #5 all-time for rookie passing TDs.

Harris: 108 yards to rush for 1000 yards.
Harris: 1 TD to finish #2 in Patriots single-season rushing TDs.

Stevenson: 28 yards to finish with 600 yards and give Pats two 600 yard rushers (Dillon and Maroney did this in 2006--both over 700).

Meyers: 1 catch to reach 80 and become just the 11th different player, and only 7th WR, to do that in NE. Six WRs, 3 TEs, 1 RB have done it.
Meyers (4 yards) and Bourne (24 yards) to both reach 800 yards receiving.

Agholor: 50 yards to become 4th player to reach 500 yards receiving this season.
Henry: 5 catches to reach 50 on season.

Folk: 15 points to set Patriots scoring record.

Patriots: 31 points to be #5 all-time in points scored in a season.
Patriots: win by 10 points to be #8 all-time in margin of victory for Patriots. Win by 21 to be #6.
 

Bowhemian

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Putting on my degenerate gambler's cap and making some calls.
Folks can get into the X's and O's and whether Pats should rest folks below, but some statistical milestones are within reach in this game.

And yes, I am aware that there's 17 games and some of these aren't as impressive as they may seem, but whatever, I'm bored.

Jones: 23 completions to be #3 all-time for rookie completions. No chance, I think the Pats will ground and pound
Jones: 200 yards to be #6 all-time for rookie passing yards, 242 yards to be #5. See above
Jones: 3 TDs to be #5 all-time for rookie passing TDs. See above

Harris: 108 yards to rush for 1000 yards. Possible, but unlikely. I think they go easy on Harris
Harris: 1 TD to finish #2 in Patriots single-season rushing TDs. Very possible, almost guaranteed

Stevenson: 28 yards to finish with 600 yards and give Pats two 600 yard rushers (Dillon and Maroney did this in 2006--both over 700). This one is a lock

Meyers: 1 catch to reach 80 and become just the 11th different player, and only 7th WR, to do that in NE. Six WRs, 3 TEs, 1 RB have done it. Likely
Meyers (4 yards) and Bourne (24 yards) to both reach 800 yards receiving. Likely

Agholor: 50 yards to become 4th player to reach 500 yards receiving this season. No chance
Henry: 5 catches to reach 50 on season. Possible, but I don't think so

Folk: 15 points to set Patriots scoring record. 3 XPs, 4 FGs gets it done-possible but not likely

Patriots: 31 points to be #5 all-time in points scored in a season. Normally I would take this one, but not in Miami.
Patriots: win by 10 points to be #8 all-time in margin of victory for Patriots. Win by 21 to be #6. Win by 10 is very possible. Win by 21 in Miami? Not a chance. This is the Dolphins Super Bowl!
 

cshea

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I'd sit Harris for this one given the balky hamstring issue he appears to still be dealing with.

Other than that, full go.
 

ShaneTrot

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I do feel bad for Tua. This is an RPO offense without the run, and very dependent on Waddle and Gesicki. This offensive line is a shit show when they play a good defense. They have a -41 point differential. NE is +168 and NE played Dallas instead of the Giants. Miami is -3 in TO differential, NE is +10. All this tells me that if NE plays everyone, they should win handily but NE is historically mediocre in Miami.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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I do feel bad for Tua. This is an RPO offense without the run, and very dependent on Waddle and Gesicki. This offensive line is a shit show when they play a good defense. They have a -41 point differential. NE is +168 and NE played Dallas instead of the Giants. Miami is -3 in TO differential, NE is +10. All this tells me that if NE plays everyone, they should win handily but NE is historically mediocre in Miami.
Not to derail the thread, but that 17th game is likely the difference between a home playoff game and having to go on the road for the Pats. The Pats got stuck playing a Dallas team that was far more talented than last year's record indicated, while Buffalo got the WFT with Taylor Heinicke at QB. The owners all wanted the additional revenue, but it will be interesting to see if losing that extra game actually costs someone a playoff spot.

Edit: Losing that stupid first game to the Dolphins probably cost them as well, I know.
 

cornwalls@6

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I do feel bad for Tua. This is an RPO offense without the run, and very dependent on Waddle and Gesicki. This offensive line is a shit show when they play a good defense. They have a -41 point differential. NE is +168 and NE played Dallas instead of the Giants. Miami is -3 in TO differential, NE is +10. All this tells me that if NE plays everyone, they should win handily but NE is historically mediocre in Miami.
Agree with this. Tennessee trucked Miami yesterday for 198 yds on 40 carries, for 5.0 average. Allowing Tannehill to have a 127.1 rating and two TD's, on just 18 attempts. Feels like the Pats should match up very similarly, be able to pound it, and set Mac up for high percentage play-action stuff . But like you, memories of past debacles down there always give me pause. Kind of glad our playoff lives aren't riding on this one.
 

SMU_Sox

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Bryant played a lot better vs Jacksonville, has played at an above average to good level all year minus a handful of games, and DMC was lamenting the lack of adjustments. I’m sorry but while he had a bad game they absolutely failed Bryant by putting him in a very difficult position all game with no help. For a UDFA the guy has been a gem. He’s giving you a lot of return on a tiny investment. Would be a shame if the board soured on the guy based on his performance vs Buffalo.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Speaking of the COVID list, would it be the worst thing ever for Mac to end up on it before the playoffs start? Not that I am wishing it on anyone, but it seems like everyone is going to get it and now would be better than right before a playoff game.
 

tims4wins

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Bryant played a lot better vs Jacksonville, has played at an above average to good level all year minus a handful of games, and DMC was lamenting the lack of adjustments. I’m sorry but while he had a bad game they absolutely failed Bryant by putting him in a very difficult position all game with no help. For a UDFA the guy has been a gem. He’s giving you a lot of return on a tiny investment. Would be a shame if the board soured on the guy based on his performance vs Buffalo.
Hey I’m with you, he made the play of the game in the first game. He’s been a great find.
 

Red Averages

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Not to derail the thread, but that 17th game is likely the difference between a home playoff game and having to go on the road for the Pats. The Pats got stuck playing a Dallas team that was far more talented than last year's record indicated, while Buffalo got the WFT with Taylor Heinicke at QB. The owners all wanted the additional revenue, but it will be interesting to see if losing that extra game actually costs someone a playoff spot.

Edit: Losing that stupid first game to the Dolphins probably cost them as well, I know.
Wouldn’t it be the #1 seed, not just a home playoff game?
 

tims4wins

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Pats opening as 6.5 point favorites.
With all of the pressure off and Miami having nothing to play for - they really can’t “spoil” anything for the Pats - I expect the Pats to come out and play well. BB’s quote from the 2003 finale is percolating in my head. It’s not too often you get a chance to even the score during the season. Maybe I’ll be severely disappointed come Sunday night, but at least we know the Pats will be playing again the weekend of January 15 no matter what.
 

DJnVa

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And with the whole "we really don't have much idea who we can play" might as well play to win and hope we come out healthy.

It's interesting that we could win and get Buffalo. We could lose and get Buffalo. We could win and get Cincy. We could lose and get Cincy.

Just play.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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Wouldn’t it be the #1 seed, not just a home playoff game?
I guess it could be, I was focusing just on the division. Titans got the Saints as their 17th game (and won), Chiefs got the Packers (arguably the worst draw possible, as they look like the class of the NFC, so no real complaints there) and beat them. My point was that the Bills, despite winning the division last year, got a far weaker opponent this year than the Pats did. They are doing it in the fairest way they can I guess, but it really does create an imbalanced schedule, which I think is too bad.

Better than the old days though, when miami seemed to never have to go play Denver and it felt like the Pats played them every year.
 

macal

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I guess it could be, I was focusing just on the division. Titans got the Saints as their 17th game (and won), Chiefs got the Packers (arguably the worst draw possible, as they look like the class of the NFC, so no real complaints there) and beat them. My point was that the Bills, despite winning the division last year, got a far weaker opponent this year than the Pats did. They are doing it in the fairest way they can I guess, but it really does create an imbalanced schedule, which I think is too bad.

Better than the old days though, when miami seemed to never have to go play Denver and it felt like the Pats played them every year.
I think they definitely did it in the fairest way possible. Based on the standings last year, they just matched up 1st place v 1st place, 2nd place v 2nd place etc... You can't really expect the league to look into the future and try to figure out which teams are going to improve on, or get worse, than the previous year.
 

joe dokes

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I think they definitely did it in the fairest way possible. Based on the standings last year, they just matched up 1st place v 1st place, 2nd place v 2nd place etc... You can't really expect the league to look into the future and try to figure out which teams are going to improve on, or get worse, than the previous year.
Another way of saying that the preseason predictions based on "strength of schedule" which are, in turn, based solely on last years standings, are even more garbagey than most predictions.
 

DJnVa

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They're not playing in the Sahara Sunday folks.

9/12 in New England: 82 degrees, 79% humidity
Sunday in Miami: 81 degrees, 69% humidity
 

joe dokes

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They're not playing in the Sahara Sunday folks.

9/12 in New England: 82 degrees, 79% humidity
Sunday in Miami: 81 degrees, 69% humidity
OTOH--the weeks preceding 9/12 were similar to 9/12 for the players, weather-wise. A little different now. (I'm not sure its going to matter; rain/wind is more likely to be a bigger factor)
 

tims4wins

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Yea the sun beating down on you is the biggest factor I would think. By the second half, it should feel better.
This inspired me to take a look at the Pats history in Miami by start time:
2020: Dec 1pm LOSS
2019: Sep 1pm WIN
2018: Dec 1pm LOSS
2017: Dec 8:30pm LOSS
2016: Jan 1pm WIN
2015: Jan 1pm LOSS
2014: Sep 1pm LOSS
2013: Dec 1pm LOSS
2012: Dec 1pm WIN
2011: Sep 7pm WIN
2010: Oct 8pm WIN
2009: Dec 1pm LOSS
2008: Nov 1pm WIN
2007: Oct 1pm WIN
2006: Dec 1pm LOSS
2005: Nov 1pm WIN
2004: Dec 9pm LOSS
2003: Oct 1pm WIN
2002: Oct 1pm LOSS
2001: Oct 1pm LOSS

So a couple things here:
- In total, they have played 20 games: 16 at 1pm, 4 at night, and zero in the 4-4:30 time slot. Interesting
- Overall they are 9-11
- At night, they are 2-2
- At 1pm, they are 7-9

So no real overall trend there, ~.500 no matter kickoff time.

December or later:
- Overall 2-8
- At night, 0-2
- At 1pm, 2-6

Bad.

November and earlier:
- Overall 7-3
- At night, 2-0
- At 1pm, 5-3

So they pretty much suck no matter day vs. night when they play there in December/January, but have overall played much better in September-November.
 

Bowhemian

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Yea the sun beating down on you is the biggest factor I would think. By the second half, it should feel better.
I think for the most part, the sun will be a non-factor. By the time kickoff happens at 4:25, it will be pretty low in the sky, as sunset will be just before 6pm.
 

StupendousMan

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I think for the most part, the sun will be a non-factor. By the time kickoff happens at 4:25, it will be pretty low in the sky, as sunset will be just before 6pm.
<Astronomer>

At 4:25 PM, the Sun will be 15 degrees and 18 minutes above the horizon. That very likely means that it won't be shining directly on any of the players. Sunset occurs at 5:46 PM, which will likely be in the middle of the second quarter.

</Astronomer>
 

DJnVa

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OTOH--the weeks preceding 9/12 were similar to 9/12 for the players, weather-wise. A little different now. (I'm not sure its going to matter; rain/wind is more likely to be a bigger factor)
Yes, absolutely, but 80 degrees isn't like suddenly going into 95 and high humidity.
 

tims4wins

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Yes, absolutely, but 80 degrees isn't like suddenly going into 95 and high humidity.
At least based on the Pats history there, over the last 20 years it's been easier for them to play there early in the season vs. later in the season. But there's a lot of variability based on quality of the Pats, quality of the Dolphins, injury status, etc etc
 

Bowhemian

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<Astronomer>

At 4:25 PM, the Sun will be 15 degrees and 18 minutes above the horizon. That very likely means that it won't be shining directly on any of the players. Sunset occurs at 5:46 PM, which will likely be in the middle of the second quarter.

</Astronomer>
Listen Mr. "Astronomer". I too could have posted exact facts and details, and I wouldn't have needed any sciencey-type degree to do so. Google is my bestie. :p
 

Soxy

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SOSH binky Myles Bryant is on the covid list too. Say what you want about Bryant, but that puts them down to their third-string slot corner. I'm not even sure who that would be. D'Angelo Ross? Move Mills inside and reactivate JJ Williams and/or Shaun Wade to cover outside? Does Bethel get some run at corner? I think he's mostly played outside in the few snaps he's gotten at CB with NE, iirc.

No matter how you slice it, suboptimal.
 

BaseballJones

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I can picture Parker having a huge day against us. He’s typically a handful for the Pats, and NE will likely put Jackson on Waddle, leaving a backup to match up with Parker, if Mills slides to the slot.

Could be a major problem.
 

normstalls

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It feels like the Jonathan Jones injury is an underrated injury that really hurt them this year.
Granted they were 2-4 when he got hurt, so who knows, but it seems like that additional depth in the secondary would have been really nice to have throughout the season.
 

DJnVa

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I can picture Parker having a huge day against us. He’s typically a handful for the Pats
He's had 3 100+ games against NE, and 2 of them were in 2015 and 2016. Since then he's had 27 catches in 8 games, for 373 yards, and 0 TDs and 3 of those games he had 0 or 1 catch.

Not saying he's not a handful, but he hasn't killed them consistently.
 

tims4wins

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It feels like the Jonathan Jones injury is an underrated injury that really hurt them this year.
Granted they were 2-4 when he got hurt, so who knows, but it seems like that additional depth in the secondary would have been really nice to have throughout the season.
His injury has cost them when they want to play man like the 2nd Buffalo game. When they play zone they don’t miss him as much.
 

Mystic Merlin

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SOSH binky Myles Bryant is on the covid list too. Say what you want about Bryant, but that puts them down to their third-string slot corner. I'm not even sure who that would be. D'Angelo Ross? Move Mills inside and reactivate JJ Williams and/or Shaun Wade to cover outside? Does Bethel get some run at corner? I think he's mostly played outside in the few snaps he's gotten at CB with NE, iirc.

No matter how you slice it, suboptimal.
Unsure, but I can’t wait for whoever replaces Bryant to be deemed as superior because he isn’t stranded in man on Waddle trying to coverfor 30 yards across the entire field without any backers chipping the crosser.
 

SMU_Sox

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Unsure, but I can’t wait for whoever replaces Bryant to be deemed as superior because he isn’t stranded in man on Waddle trying to coverfor 30 yards across the entire field without any backers chipping the crosser.
I think we just became best friends.

I haven’t spent a lot of time thinking about this matchup because I don’t really think much of the Dolphins offense. They don’t have a functional OL because they have traffic cones playing at the tackle positions. They probably need to upgrade center but I’ll defer to people who watch them more than I do. I expect the Pats to win the LOS. They have a decent short passing game and Waddle (stud) and Gesicki (good slot) can be a handful but that’s about it. Tua IMO is a fairly mediocre QB with physical limitations but he would be better if he had an OL and a running game to support him.

Defensively the Fins are no joke. They are a hyper aggressive squad that covers well, defends the run well, and blitzes a lot. Expect to see a lot of cover 0 looks. For the Pats offense I expect them to have some trouble moving the ball and turnovers will be an issue. The Fins can win this game but if the Patriots play a clean game they should win.

I think something like a 19-13 win is in order.
 

BaseballJones

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He's had 3 100+ games against NE, and 2 of them were in 2015 and 2016. Since then he's had 27 catches in 8 games, for 373 yards, and 0 TDs and 3 of those games he had 0 or 1 catch.

Not saying he's not a handful, but he hasn't killed them consistently.
That's comforting actually. I guess my memory didn't line up with the stats.
 

tims4wins

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I think we just became best friends.

I haven’t spent a lot of time thinking about this matchup because I don’t really think much of the Dolphins offense. They don’t have a functional OL because they have traffic cones playing at the tackle positions. They probably need to upgrade center but I’ll defer to people who watch them more than I do. I expect the Pats to win the LOS. They have a decent short passing game and Waddle (stud) and Gesicki (good slot) can be a handful but that’s about it. Tua IMO is a fairly mediocre QB with physical limitations but he would be better if he had an OL and a running game to support him.

Defensively the Fins are no joke. They are a hyper aggressive squad that covers well, defends the run well, and blitzes a lot. Expect to see a lot of cover 0 looks. For the Pats offense I expect them to have some trouble moving the ball and turnovers will be an issue. The Fins can win this game but if the Patriots play a clean game they should win.
The Phins are -41 and the Pats are +168 for a net differential of 209. Over 16 games that is over 13ppg. And as noted the Phins played the Giants while the Pats played Dallas.

This is a road division game so who knows. But the Pats still have something to play for, Miami doesn’t, and unlike past December matchups, Miami can’t really “spoil” anything for the Pats.

All this to say, I think the Pats win going away, but I am probably setting myself up for disappointment.
 
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Soxy

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Unsure, but I can’t wait for whoever replaces Bryant to be deemed as superior because he isn’t stranded in man on Waddle trying to coverfor 30 yards across the entire field without any backers chipping the crosser.
Hey, I tried to be the voice of reason that night in the goat thread. I'm seeing this poor guy get dusted over and over again..... I mean, at some point it becomes coaching malpractice to leave a player hanging out to dry like that. It just continued happening all game long. As frustrating and maddening as it was for us to watch, just imagine being Myles Bryant. I'm sure he would be the first to admit that he didn't play well, but maybe relying on him to chase a guy much faster than he is from sideline to sideline wasn't such a great idea.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Oh, get off of Bryant's dick.

He's been a fantastic player for his price, but he was fucking horrific against the Bills. Of course the coaches should have adjusted, but it wasn't like he was covering Diggs. The dude literally made zero plays all game.

I don't hate the guy, and I appreciate the decent season hes had, but he was fucking putrid.
 

SMU_Sox

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With Hightower out I wonder if we see a lot more Tavai on Sunday. Maybe Uche finally gets some ILB reps? Not likely as he hasn’t done that all year but in 2020 he got ILB reps. They don’t have good depth at ILB though.