So would you do Pats 2 #1, 2 #2, and JC Jackson? He is better than two young starters.
Pats QB Options
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No he isn't. He's an RFA about to get paid, 2 young starters implies to me cost controlled.
They'd probably want something like Winovich and Bentley maybe?
Yup. I don't think there is anything wrong, necessarily, with them looking at all the QB options in terms of trade targets, free agents, and high draft picks and just deciding to keep their powder dry for another season (I think they should go all out for Watson but as discussed elsewhere I am highly skeptical Watson will want to go to NE given better options for short-term success).
But if they go that route, there is no point in bringing Cam back because it's fairly obvious he isn't a QB that can lead them to the promised land. Absolute best-case scenario in that situation is the Pats overperform with an easier schedule, squeak into the playoffs and then get destroyed by whoever the #2 seed is or whatever. They are MUCH better off in the "punt another year" scenario drafting a high-upside but flawed QB in the later rounds of the draft and riding with Stidham and their new QB and just seeing what they have.
That's a pretty steep price. I think I'd rather sign Fitz as a stopgap and pick Mac Jones at #15 and fill in some of the other gaps with those picks. But it's close. Watson is a franchise-changing talent.
I think they would want guys like Dugger, Winovich, Uche, Onwenu, etc. Would be curious to know what Caserio thinks of JoeJuan, a guy who hasn't shown anything but may not be a complete lost cause in another system.
yep that's why I went Wino and Bentley. Part of our problem, along with our picks not being that good, is that we don't have a lot of young impact starters on D.
Watson is not coming to the Patriots. There's too many holes on the team and a lack of assets to pull it off.
I have to think Watson's a pipe dream. Other teams have more to offer, and I'm not sure how thrilled the Texans's front office is to send him to NE.
His running was impressive. That only means that a QB who threw as badly as Newton and couldn't run like him would have resulted in a 3-win season.
Any vet QB who does not face notable physical limitations throwing the ball and can actually do a bit of reading defenses (pre-snap & post-snap) would rank ahead of 2021 Cam, sadly. If continuity in the Pats/Josh offense and some running ability are big criteria, isn't Brissett available?
Having said that, I think the odds of BB bringing Cam back are at least one in three.
Having said that, I think the odds of BB bringing Cam back are at least one in three.
Perhaps I am mis-reading you, but it sounds as if you are saying the Patriots have too many holes to fill to give up that much in a trade. I think being confidently set at QB is worth almost anything.
No, it's that they don't have the assets. The team he would inherit here would already have too many holes and is not a desirable landing spot. They have 2 strikes against them and there are too many teams that can offer a better package and have a better team for him to take over.
Was it continuity or good QB play? Colts had a pretty good year as well. I do agree with Covid, continuity is more of a factor but it is still far below ability.
Was it? I would say Cam was a solid runner but not really a threat. He averaged 4.3 yds per carry. That is a decent average but no where near guys like Lamar, Murray or Wilson who all averaged over 6 yds. Cam was probably a little above average runner but I don't think teams were worried about Cam beating them with his legs.
As for Watson, I don't see it happening but two young players are probably two of Duggar, Uche, Wino and Jennings.
His running wasn't impressive to me. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry and the Pats went from 17 rushing TDs in 2019 to 20 rushing TDs in 2020. Dude basically got you "meh" running back production that you likely could've reproduced by just giving Michel/Harris the ball in those situations. It doesn't even come close to making up how awful he was throwing the ball, and he was awful.
To get back to the question, do I give up 2 #1s, 2 #2s, Winovich and Uche for Deshaun Watson? Yes, yes I do.
The available cap space in 2021 can easily paper over this year's missing draft picks and the loss of the LB potential. Sign Robinson or Godwin, let BB work his magic on finding useful castoff LBs, draft some OL help in the late rounds, and print the playoff tickets.
That said, if the Jets or Dolphins make the same offer with their draft capital and can include a replacement QB the Texans can not unreasonably dream on, that's obviously a much stronger package.
It's not near Lamar and Murray no, but those are the two best runners in the NFL and with Vick the most explosive runners in the history of the position.
Cam ran 137 times, 2nd most of any QB, with a 4.3 average, that's better than say... Josh Allen. He was also an exceptional goalline weapon, getting 12 TDs.
I'm not sure why an increase in rushing TDs, and him accounting for 60% of our rushing TDs is a negative to you.
Cam was a bad thrower, he was also a pretty good high volume designed runner and a dominant goalline runner. That's not an elite QB, but that's not something many other QBs give you either.
Cam isn't going to be a good QB, my point was, if he's cheap he may be a better bridge to your next QB than a lot of other options who happen to be better throwers than him. Especially since even with the cap space and maybe draft picks, I don't expect us to have great receivers next year.
Very much agree with this. If the Pats trade for Watson now (and he agreed to go to them, which is the bigger sticking point), they are doing so with the plan/expectation that he is their franchise QB for the rest of his career (or close). In that situation they are probably okay giving up some short-term picks and players - their window with Watson realistically would not be next year but 1-2 years further down the road. (It's also important to keep in mind that, just as was the case with Brady in Tampa, Watson in NE would also almost certainly make it easier to sign or acquire other offensive talent.) Sure, it's putting all your eggs in one basket but it's worth it to take that risk given the alternatives.
But of course that is also precisely the same reason Watson is very likely not going to want to go to the Pats - particularly for someone like him who has been on the verge of contention repeatedly without ever really being a true Super Bowl contender, a pitch of "come to the Pats and in a few years if things go right we should be right back in the mix!" is not going to be as a appealing as "come to Miami and we're immediately a Super Bowl contender!" Which is why I also don't really buy the reports that the Jets are Watson's current top choice - unless he just loves the New York atmosphere and/or Saleh, why would he want to go to a cold-weather city to a team with major weaknesses even if he joins them in a division that has two very strong teams already plus the Belichick-led Pats?
The best-case scenario for the Pats is that Miami decides they want to stick it out with Tua and they don't put in an offer for Watson at all, other potential suitors like the Colts and SF decide they can't wait and sign for or trade for someone else, and then Watson is left choosing between the Pats, the Jets, and maybe some other out-of-left-field option like Green Bay if Rodgers decides to retire or something. That's the only scenario where I could see the BB's pedigree being sufficient to make the Pats the best of a set of limited options.
If you're going to be the worst throwing QB in the league, then damn right you better be as good as the best QBs in the league at running. Otherwise you're a terrible option overall at QB - which Cam is.
I don't totally disagree, in that Cam is a well below average QB option overall but:
1. He's not the worst throwing QB in the league
2. If he were Lamar Jackson as a runner he's be getting $20M a year not $3-5M
If they draft Newman at the end of the 3rd round, I think Cam might make a nice complement as the steady vet that starts the season while the rookie marinates.
If Watt is looking to be traded, maybe the Pats would seek to include him in the deal as well. That would clear $17.5m off Houston's books.
I mean, we all pretty much agree that NE isn't going to get Watson, as several other teams could offer more. But it's also silly to not talk about the possibility.
So:
2021 first
2021 second
2021 fourth
2022 first
2022 second
Winovich
Dugger
for
Watson
Watt
Pats then have seven picks in 2021: 1 third, 2 fourths, 1 fifth, 2 sixths, 1 seventh
Use them to add defensive help. Use your FA money (a lot of it, but a lot less once they acquire Watson and Watt) to add a WR1 and another offensive piece and some OL help.
And I think that team is likely much better than their current team. Now and in the future.
I mean, we all pretty much agree that NE isn't going to get Watson, as several other teams could offer more. But it's also silly to not talk about the possibility.
So:
2021 first
2021 second
2021 fourth
2022 first
2022 second
Winovich
Dugger
for
Watson
Watt
Pats then have seven picks in 2021: 1 third, 2 fourths, 1 fifth, 2 sixths, 1 seventh
Use them to add defensive help. Use your FA money (a lot of it, but a lot less once they acquire Watson and Watt) to add a WR1 and another offensive piece and some OL help.
And I think that team is likely much better than their current team. Now and in the future.
I would be pretty fine with that. Draft Newman, bring Cam back at modest money, use your cap and other picks to improve at WR and add some athleticism to the defense. If you get a good Cam year... great you're a playoff team. If Cam struggles... just makes it easier to bring in the rookie on low expectations.
Who started ten+ games this year and was worse at throwing the football? Serious question. Maybe there's one or two guys in the league worse?
I have been watching the Patriots for 40 years, and seen some really bad quarterback play. This year was as bad as anything I've seen barring guys who played very briefly. Certainly the worst full season I ever remember.
I never say this stuff, but if we go into the season with Cam starting, I'm out. Can't do it again.
This is precisely the reason they shouldn't bring Cam back. We know from this year that the range for a Pats team with Cam starting is probably something like 4-9 wins (this is very rough since so many other factors play in here, obviously). But why would they want to, in effect, run this team back for another year and wind up with something around the 15th pick again?
I am usually the one arguing against tanking but if their options are either bring back Cam as a bridge to a new QB and win somewhere around 6ish wins again, or just throw Stidham/rookie out there and see what happens, I don't know why they'd go the Cam route - you know what you're getting with him and it's neither good enough to be a legit contender nor likely to be bad enough to get a top pick. Conversely, a Stidham/rookie approach is likely to be VERY bad, but even if it isn't and you again end up in the 6ish win range you at least have a better sense of what Stidham/rookie will give you than you did before the year, so you've gained something that you wouldn't have by bringing Cam back.
Because him accounting for 60% of the Patriots rushing TDs just meant he got the ball at the goal line and not the RBs. That's it. It's the same argument people made when Blount had 18 TDs and they talked about how much the Patriots would miss him because of that production. No, other guys got the ball on the 2 yard line and scored. I think rushing TD numbers are fungible for the most part, unless you have a guy that can break big runs with some consistency.
What are the odds that the Pats could win 10 games next year with Newton back?
I would assume that more time with the offense would help Cam, not hurt. It's also hard to have a worse TD/INT ratio than he had in today's NFL, so I think that would have to improve almost by default. I'd also assume that they'd add weapons that would help. And that covid wouldn't submarine them in two games where they had crazy travel (and had to play Hoyer) and then not practice for two weeks. Moreover, they get the AFC South, which will have two good teams (Indy/Ten) but also two bad ones (Jax/Hou), plus the NFC South, which will have two good teams (NO/TB) and two bad ones (Atl/Car). And the'd get the Chargers instead of the Chiefs as an AFC West opponent. In other words, the schedule should be much easier in 2021 than it was in 2020.
So is it really crazy to think that they could win 10 games with Cam? It's only 3 more wins, and given what I just outlines, it seems possible to me.
I would assume that more time with the offense would help Cam, not hurt. It's also hard to have a worse TD/INT ratio than he had in today's NFL, so I think that would have to improve almost by default. I'd also assume that they'd add weapons that would help. And that covid wouldn't submarine them in two games where they had crazy travel (and had to play Hoyer) and then not practice for two weeks. Moreover, they get the AFC South, which will have two good teams (Indy/Ten) but also two bad ones (Jax/Hou), plus the NFC South, which will have two good teams (NO/TB) and two bad ones (Atl/Car). And the'd get the Chargers instead of the Chiefs as an AFC West opponent. In other words, the schedule should be much easier in 2021 than it was in 2020.
So is it really crazy to think that they could win 10 games with Cam? It's only 3 more wins, and given what I just outlines, it seems possible to me.
Meyers and Byrd were (by far) his top two receivers. Izzo was (by far) his top TE. To say the 2020 offense was a Cam problem, I mean, come on. Yes, Cam put plenty of bad tape out there, but he was signed 30 days before training camp opened. His best targets were guys who would struggle to even make most other teams' 53-man rosters. You can't just evaluate Cam in a vacuum. (Well you can, this is a message board and all, but the point remains).
Secondly, who do you envision NE getting who will be appreciably better? Watson isn't coming to NE. Rodgers isn't coming to NE. Tyrod Taylor? Andy Dalton? Tyler Heinicke? Jacoby Brissett? Those guys really would have done better under the same 2020 circumstances as Cam endured?
Cam is NOT the answer. That's not my point. What Cam is, is at cheap money, a less terrible option than the other retreads since A) you don't have to start from scratch during what will likely be another wonky COVID offseason, B) a good enough runner to add an additional threat, and C) a guy who is already liked and respected in the building. Again, Cam is not a GOOD option; but sometimes the best play is taking the least bad option. Pipe dream trades aren't happening; NE is in the retread market. I'm not seeing how the grass is going to be any greener with the available options.
Secondly, who do you envision NE getting who will be appreciably better? Watson isn't coming to NE. Rodgers isn't coming to NE. Tyrod Taylor? Andy Dalton? Tyler Heinicke? Jacoby Brissett? Those guys really would have done better under the same 2020 circumstances as Cam endured?
Cam is NOT the answer. That's not my point. What Cam is, is at cheap money, a less terrible option than the other retreads since A) you don't have to start from scratch during what will likely be another wonky COVID offseason, B) a good enough runner to add an additional threat, and C) a guy who is already liked and respected in the building. Again, Cam is not a GOOD option; but sometimes the best play is taking the least bad option. Pipe dream trades aren't happening; NE is in the retread market. I'm not seeing how the grass is going to be any greener with the available options.
You aren't running back the same team though. This team is going to be wildly different next year between returning opt-outs, FA signings and the draft. And honestly it isn't going to be bad enough to tank. Stidham isn't going to be here likely, and honestly, I'd much rather have Cam than him as the bridge. Cam is a well respected and well liked vet.
Unless Bill just doesn't spend the cap space this team is going to be better on both sides of the ball outside the QB position.
So the question becomes, what is the best return on your dollar at QB. The answer is probably a rookie, but also it's tough to roll out a rookie day 1, so you need a QB to bridge.
Some of it will depend on what QB you draft. If it's say Mac Jones then yeah Cam doesn't make as much sense, you're building around a guy with no mobility so maybe you get a statue placeholder. If it's someone like Jamie Newman, which is what the original discussion was, then Cam makes a lot of sense, Newman is a similar athletic profile to Cam, he's a big strong dual threat QB, and an offense built for him works well for Cam as well.
Lock, Jones, Darnold, Wentz. If you drop it to 6 you can probably add both WFT QBs and Nick Foles.
How do we know Cam is the "least bad" option? Running it back with Cam/Stidham next year is absolute lunacy, IMO. I don't care if the next retread might not be any better because it's crazy to not even try to improve upon a QB who threw for 8 TDs in 15 games. We all know the limitations of the group he had but we also know that they were getting open and he wasn't hitting them.
It will be a huge organizational failure if Cam Newton is the starting QB of this team next year. I'm confident that won't happen.
Nobody is saying to bring back Cam and Stidham though are they? The question was... is the best way to build the next contender to use the space this year to build the pass-catchers and defense, bring back Cam cheap as a bridge and likely draft a QB.
I think it's a fair assessment. The other options are mostly just as bad, just as unlikely to be the next SB contending QB, and also probably more expensive.
I do think it likely depends on what they want in the draft. If it's Newman or a similar dual threat QB, Cam as the bridge is likely the best option. If it's a pure pocket passer, probably not.
Yes, nobody wants this guy but I don't even want to entertain a possible return. El Jeffe seemed to indicate that Cam may be a lesser of two evils option and that's the point I don't really agree with. We don't really know that. I think you can basically pick any FA QB out of a hat and find at least comparable production, if not better. He was just so bad. In any event, I'm fully expecting the QB room next year to consist of a cheap vet and a draft pick. I just hope that cheap vet is not Cam.
I don't know that I agree about the pick a FA out of a hat though. Cam was bad for an NFL starter, but the FA class is.... not good at all. I'm not sure that there is going to be anyone better than Cam for the same price. Add in that he's well liked in the building and I can see why he'd be a better choice than the guys he's likely to get paid the same as:
Bortles?, Brissett? Jameis? Glennon? Rosen? That's the level of QB you're talking about, and honestly if you gave me Cam or the field there.... it's pretty close.
They all stink but I need a QB who can throw a football. No WR can possibly thrive under Cam. Only condition I would take him is in a Taysom Hill goal line role, where he still has some value.
The passing TD number for Cam was awful. The other numbers (completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, etc.) were not good, but within spitting distance of average.
I think the best measuring stick for a QB is the overall efficiency of the offense, and it was bad with Cam in 2020. They finished 24th with 1.92 points per drive. OTOH, they were barely any better with Brady in 2019 (1.97 points per drive, 17th). The 2019 Patriots fell off over the second half of the season, scoring 17 offensive TDs over the last 8 games, a virtually identical rate to the 31 offensive TDs the Pats scored in 15 Cam starts.
Brady unsurprisingly played a lot better with better receivers in 2020. I expect the Patriots' weapons to stink in 2021, but they ought to be better than they were in 2020.
I hope they improve on Cam too, but I'd rather him back than, say, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Andy Dalton.
I think the best measuring stick for a QB is the overall efficiency of the offense, and it was bad with Cam in 2020. They finished 24th with 1.92 points per drive. OTOH, they were barely any better with Brady in 2019 (1.97 points per drive, 17th). The 2019 Patriots fell off over the second half of the season, scoring 17 offensive TDs over the last 8 games, a virtually identical rate to the 31 offensive TDs the Pats scored in 15 Cam starts.
Brady unsurprisingly played a lot better with better receivers in 2020. I expect the Patriots' weapons to stink in 2021, but they ought to be better than they were in 2020.
I hope they improve on Cam too, but I'd rather him back than, say, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Andy Dalton.
I'll be clear that a lot of this for me is that I absolutely hate watching Cam throw. Like, it's just not fun for me and I would much rather watch a more turnover-prone vet QB like Fitzmagic if the overall offensive production is similar. I was one of many who were excited for Cam but I've seen enough after that debacle of a season. Was worth a shot but it ran its course, IMO. Sports should be entertaining and obviously losing is never fun...but losing with Cam as your QB is even less fun, at least for me.
Between rushing, pass attempts, receptions (!), and sacks, Cam had 538 touches. He had 11 turnovers during that time. That's 49 Cam plays for every turnover. As a comparison, Fitzpatrick had 312 combined touches and 8 turnovers. That's 39 Fitz plays for every turnover. Brady had 661 touches and 13 turnovers. That's 51 Brady plays for every turnover. Wilson had 688 touches and 17 turnovers. That's 40 Wilson plays for every turnover.
So Cam was pretty decent at limiting turnovers, all things considered. That's not nothing.
So Cam was pretty decent at limiting turnovers, all things considered. That's not nothing.
How do we know? Genuinely not trying to be snarky, but how does anyone know anything? I'm making a projection based on the available options and comparing them to Cam. We've seen Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Jacoby Brissett, et al play. We've seen Cam play. None of them are remotely inspiring choices; I think there's a case to be made that Cam's a better option that the other flotsam that is (and are likely to be) available. I'm not saying they should give up and settle for Cam; they should continue to do their due diligence on the QB trade market--I'm just not seeing which teams are in a hurry to move on from a quality starting QB (and which ones would want to go play in NE).
Let me try it this way: which QBs who are genuinely available are definitely better options? Maybe SF makes Jimmy available and he stays healthy for a 16 game season? I can buy him being a potential upgrade (but he'll also cost more cap room + trade compensation, which needs to be factored in). If not Cam, who (and why)?
Part of me wonders what Cam would look like if his WRs included a real #1 and a real burner. Cam has a lot of limitations, but our WR corps is just about the worst for him in that it's a lot of tight window short and intermediate routes, where he was always best at throwing deep and boundary jump-balls.
A Godwin or a Robinson would change the offense a lot, especially if he's paired with someone else who can take the top off. Last year one of the obvious problems is that nobody, except maybe Byrd was a threat and everyone knew it, so teams just flooded us short which hurt the short passing and running games.
A Godwin or a Robinson would change the offense a lot, especially if he's paired with someone else who can take the top off. Last year one of the obvious problems is that nobody, except maybe Byrd was a threat and everyone knew it, so teams just flooded us short which hurt the short passing and running games.
I don't think we really disagree. None of the realistic options will be enticing - everyone agrees on that. I would prefer Jimmy G for sure. Fitzpatrick is another I would take over Cam in a heartbeat. But at this point, I just want someone new. Cam was so bad last year that I'd rather have a new experience at QB, even if the end result is similar. The one thing every FA QB likely has over Cam is health. His shoulder is completely shot.
End of the day, watching Cam play QB for the Patriots isn't even remotely entertaining for me. Watching someone new who can actually throw an accurate football and make correct reads would be more fun and then I will hopefully have a rookie to dream on by mid season or so.
This is where I stand as well. I just want a guy who can run an NFL offense. Seems like every big Cam completion came off play action to a wide open receiver down the middle of the field, whenever he was asked to just drop back and play traditional QB he couldn't really cut it.
That feels pretty charitable to Newton. Darnold is the only one I would agree was actually worse than Newton at first glance, and even that comparison is closer than it should be.
I can't believe people who watched the Pats play this season are arguing for bringing him back. He couldn't be relied on to complete screen passes, let alone any throw with a degree of difficulty attached. It was a historically bad season, this is a rare case where it's worth it to make a change almost regardless of what the other options are.
Cam seems to lead them in basically everything buy TD%. Also, if you would rather have Wentz's season and it's sub 4 ANY/A you are out of your mind
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