@Zincman you aren’t an amateur really though imo. Well, maybe now at this point in your life you are but I think you’re downplaying your level of knowledge and expertise. You see things in tape study at an advanced level. I feel very fortunate that there are so many high caliber fans in my life who give up time to just watch prospects. I hope I see you next Saturday !
I think you’re right that the NFL overdrafts guys. But I also think that sometimes guys might just not be developed correctly either. It’s a chicken and egg thing to some degree. And to your point you made earlier the NFL is good at figuring out who the best QB prospects are and they usually go top10 so you tend to lose if you don’t play the game.
I will post the recording later this week but
Mark Schofield took us through Mills, Mond, and Newman. Along with Trask those are the next tier or 2nd tier guys.
I’ll summarize and if anyone wants to correct me if I am mistaken feel free.
QB discussion below:
Mills: I don’t see a ton of difference between Mac Jones and Mills skill set wise. Both are traditional pocket passers with average to below average arms. Both do a lot of pre-snap work like being able to check in or out of plays. Mills played on an inferior team. Mills might also be a tick worse at reading the defense than Mac Jones but Jones had such better receivers and an OL that it’s hard to know if that’s true. Both guys are smart though. Both are fairly accurate but imo neither have great deep accuracy consistently. Jones had more practice time over the years with his receivers than Mills did. Mills also has some injury history. Mills rebound in Stanford game spoke to his mental toughness as did coming back from injuries and still taking big hits to make big throws. Jones? Is he tough? He’ll take shots, sure, but has never had much pressure in a game.
Both have acceptable levels of pocket mobility but neither guy is someone who will scramble much and obviously neither are dual-threats.
They both are smart enough, accurate enough, and tough enough, to be traditionally in considering for BB.
Trask we didn’t review but we’ve talked about him here. I like Trask but the more I watch him the more I don’t think he translates well to the NFL. His mechanics, size, immobility, accuracy struggles all chip away at how he will succeed without a big pocket and having to make more right window throws. Mills and Jones have some ability to extend plays with the pocket presence and limited ability scrambling but Trask is close to being a statue.
Before we get into Mond and Newman let’s talk big picture offense. Having a dual-threat QB or at least a guy who can run 3-4+ times a game when you want to run 12/21/22 changes the way the defense has to play you both personnel groupings wise and also X’s and O’s. So while mobility wasn’t a necessity in the past Bill might want someone who can help take their running offense to another level. I thought that’s one thing that helped make them 7-9 last year with that dreadful roster was Cam’s ability as a runner. So going forward I think Bill wouldn’t rule out someone for not being a runner but he might value a runner much more highly all else being relatively equal. Also being a runner gives you additional ways to win over a pocket passer as well as extend plays.
Mond to me is a little like plywood. He can do a lot of things at a good level but he isn’t elite at anything and all together even if he hits would be a lower end starter. I’ve seen 3-4 of his 2020 games and IMO he is also smart enough, accurate enough, and tough enough. Mond has at the least enough mobility to scramble as well as possibly being able to have a couple designed runs or options with him. He has sufficient arm strength. He could improve his processing speed but it’s in the middle or upper part of this class. His accuracy downfield can be hit or miss. He’s older, has played a lot, and while he has improved it’s possible he doesn’t have a ton of room left to grow. He is good at taking what the defense gives him but could stand to be more aggressive. He’s not going to be special and personally I see him as a backup type but I think he has enough to be a competent spot starter who can probably play in a variety of systems.
Last guy is
Newman. In terms of passers Newman is probably the worst of this group of 3. He’s the best runner by far. He actually runs like an RB setting up blocks and manipulating LBs to take the wrong gaps. He has a ton of power. He’s fast and has good COD. He can also throw on the move. In terms of Arm strength Newman easily has the best arm. The issue with him is lack of touch (he has a fastball). He flashes touch! But he’s definitely not used to it. He’s not great at reading coverage as he’s stared into interceptions. He’s also slow at getting the ball out. He will see a concept but either won’t throw with the right touch or won’t throw it in time. So for him you’d need to speed up his processing time a ton as well as improve how he plays with anticipation. He might be scheme limited to a West Coast offense. I think though he’d do well in it.
None of these guys are great fits for the Pats but if I had to stack the board I agree with Mark: Mills, Mond, Newman.
Here is my thoughts on why 2nd and 3rd round picks might not be less valuable than usual vs later round picks.
Covid has caused some prospects to have down years. Some guys missed time. Others missed the opportunity to develop over summer before the season started and then didn’t have a ton of practice time because of COVID. Weeks of practices, off-season programs, and games were cancelled. The point is COVID has made life difficult for prospects in all kinds of ways. For many opt-outs we don’t know if they improved. And we don’t know how the NFL will treat them. I don’t think results wise Ambry Thomas is that far off from Campbell (UGA). Had he played this year after gaining some weight he might have seen his stock skyrocket. Others might have had down years but instead went out on a high note. Listening to Tony Pauline each year there are like 10-20-25 guys who are thought as day 3 coming into the year but who have a good year and go day 2. Again - think about every possible way COVID has interrupted the normal prospect life process and the process of a college player. It adds up.
We’ve heard that this is the most all over the place draft boards have been as teams struggle to determine how to handle this past year. To me that means
there will be more randomness than usual this year and it follows that could mean a chance that good players could slip into day 3 because the teams are going to have a harder time identifying values correctly.
I see the board as fairly strong for the first 15-20 players or so and then it falls off and with the uncertainty of prospects due to COVID things level out. With so many day 3 picks early on and with the possibility of day 2 picks being not as valuable this year in comparison to a normal year I could see the Patriots being aggressive to get a QB this year and then making a volume play early on in day 3.
Who is their ideal fit? Mark says this and I agree I think it is Fields then Lance. Both of them have great arms, are leaders, and are true dual-threats. Fields is one of the most accurate throwers this year.
