Pats QB Options

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axx

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Didn't know where to put this, but this thread gets the most traction:

Reiss: Last year's first round lasted 3 hours, 54 minutes. In 2019, it was 3 hours, 39 minutes. So splitting the difference with an average of 7 minutes per selection, and factoring in the Patriots' initial pick at No. 15, the team would be on the clock at about 9:45 p.m. ET.
If they are taking a QB, it won't be at 15.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I have to pick my wife up at Logan around 7 on Thursday and then I'm probably 90 minutes to home. Maybe I need to send an Uber.
Just listen to it via your phone or radio on the way home. You'll miss a few picks on TV, but so what? Other than some highlights and player reactions, what does TV offer that radio doesn't?
 

E5 Yaz

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Did you read the opening to his post?
Eh, it's okay. I should have started a thread titled "Reiss: If Patriots stay at 15, their pick should come right about when MuppetAsteriskTalk's wife decides to leave him for the Uber driver who picked her up at Logan"
 

wilked

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Eh, it's okay. I should have started a thread titled "Reiss: If Patriots stay at 15, their pick should come right about when MuppetAsteriskTalk's wife decides to leave him for the Uber driver who picked her up at Logan"
 

sodenj5

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I don't know how you would conclude that.

The Occam's Razor explanation all along has been that they are taking Mac Jones. It might not turn out that way but dismissing that scenario seems pretty questionable.
Because I haven’t believed for a single second that they traded away 2 future first round picks to select the guy that would have fallen to them at 12.

Is it a guarantee Mac Jones would have made it to 12? No. But he isn’t such an amazing talent that you cannot miss out on him and have to go up to 3 to make sure you get him. Especially when you have a QB on your roster already.

Trey Lance fits their timeline. He sits for most of this year behind Jimmy and takes over next year.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Because I haven’t believed for a single second that they traded away 2 future first round picks to select the guy that would have fallen to them at 12.

Is it a guarantee Mac Jones would have made it to 12? No. But he isn’t such an amazing talent that you cannot miss out on him and have to go up to 3 to make sure you get him. Especially when you have a QB on your roster already.

Trey Lance fits their timeline. He sits for most of this year behind Jimmy and takes over next year.
You could just as easily argue that its implausible that they would bet the future of the franchise, and their own careers, on a guy with such a thin resume who will have played one football game in the last 18 months when he enters their building.

I'm not saying it won't be Lance. But making any prediction with a very high level of certainty seems foolish. The reality is that nobody knows, or the people that do know aren't saying.
 

sodenj5

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You could just as easily argue that its implausible that they would bet the future of the franchise, and their own careers, on a guy with such a thin resume who will have played one football game in the last 18 months when he enters their building.

I'm not saying it won't be Lance. But making any prediction with a very high level of certainty seems foolish. The reality is that nobody knows, or the people that do know aren't saying.
Obviously no one knows. I clearly don’t know. But Mac Jones never made logical sense. What does he do that Jimmy G doesn’t already provide? Besides being cheap.

At least there’s meat on the bone with Lance and I would be willing to bet Shanahan believes in himself enough to be able to coach his floor up while being able to access his considerably higher ceiling compared to either Jimmy or Mac.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Anyway, Peter King released his mock draft and its really the ideal scenario for the Patriots to potentially get one of the QBs.

1. Jags - Lawrence
2. Jets - Wilson
3. Niners - Jones
4. Falcons - Pitts
5. Bengals - Chase
6. Dolphins - Waddle
7. Lions - Sewell (but interested in trading down)
8. Panthers - Fields (but interested in trading down)
9. Broncos - Lance

This seems like a fairly plausible scenario to me.
 

EvilEmpire

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If you ignore what SF says and watch what they do, I think keeping Jimmy G points Occam more in the direction of Lance than Jones.

But no, I wouldn't totally discount Jones either.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Obviously no one knows. I clearly don’t know. But Mac Jones never made logical sense. What does he do that Jimmy G doesn’t already provide? Besides being cheap.

At least there’s meat on the bone with Lance and I would be willing to bet Shanahan believes in himself enough to be able to coach his floor up while being able to access his considerably higher ceiling compared to either Jimmy or Mac.
Your premise is that Kyle Shanahan agrees that Jones has a low ceiling and/or doesn't provide much beyond Jimmy G.

That premise seems pretty questionable to me.
 

Cellar-Door

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Your premise is that Kyle Shanahan agrees that Jones has a low ceiling and/or doesn't provide much beyond Jimmy G.

That premise seems pretty questionable to me.
Yeah, if Shanahan think he's Matt Ryan, that's a lot better. Though also... Jimmy can't stay on the field, so any QB who can is probably an upgrade.
 

Saints Rest

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Anyway, Peter King released his mock draft and its really the ideal scenario for the Patriots to potentially get one of the QBs.

1. Jags - Lawrence
2. Jets - Wilson
3. Niners - Jones
4. Falcons - Pitts
5. Bengals - Chase
6. Dolphins - Waddle
7. Lions - Sewell (but interested in trading down)
8. Panthers - Fields (but interested in trading down)
9. Broncos - Lance

This seems like a fairly plausible scenario to me.
Her's what I bet happens: The draft shakes out like PK describes above. And when the Sheriff comes to the podium for the Lions pick, we hear "There has been a trade. The New England Patriots are on the clock." Then 12 minutes later, we hear "With the 7th pick, the New England Patriots select Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virgina Tech." And the board explodes.
 

Shelterdog

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I'm coming to rapid grips with the reality Bill is likely trading down. Rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed again.
I'm not so sure. It sounds more and more to me like it's a pretty bad draft and there are going to be roughly ten guys who deserve to be first round picks and then not a ton of difference for a long time.

If you're picking fifteen that suggests to me the plan may be either move up a bit to get one of those ten (Slater or Horn or Waddle) but if you can't then move back.
 

Cellar-Door

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I'm not so sure. It sounds more and more to me like it's a pretty bad draft and there are going to be roughly ten guys who deserve to be first round picks and then not a ton of difference for a long time.

If you're picking fifteen that suggests to me the plan may be either move up a bit to get one of those ten (Slater or Horn or Waddle) but if you can't then move back.
I think the opposite. People know less than normal, which means a lot of variance but this feels like a deep draft to me, especially at OL, CB and WR.
As an example, If I could trade down, I'd much rather have the 4th best OL and the 4th best WR in this draft than just the 3rd best WR or 2nd best OL.
Say AVT and Moore vs, just Darrisaw or just Smith.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Her's what I bet happens: The draft shakes out like PK describes above. And when the Sheriff comes to the podium for the Lions pick, we hear "There has been a trade. The New England Patriots are on the clock." Then 12 minutes later, we hear "With the 7th pick, the New England Patriots select Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virgina Tech." And the board explodes.
Holy hell, that would be hilarious and infuriating at the same time. I think the only thing worse is Mac Jones as Pats pick at 7.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Holy hell, that would be hilarious and infuriating at the same time. I think the only thing worse is Mac Jones as Pats pick at 7.
It could be worse, they could move up to take Kyle Trask (reportedly fearing that the Broncos or someone had their eyes on him).
 

TSC

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Todd McShay on PMT thinks Davis Mills could go in the 2nd round to NEP.

He doesn't see the Patriots trading up in the first (likely to trade down) for a QB. Does think Mac Jones goes to SF at 3 overall though.
 

Shelterdog

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I think the opposite. People know less than normal, which means a lot of variance but this feels like a deep draft to me, especially at OL, CB and WR.
Totally agree with you on the variance and of course you might be right, the depth starts looking a lot better if a lot of the players who didn't play much or at all end up being good. A guy like Walker Little at Stanford was well on his way to being a first round pick, then he had a season ending injury in game one of 2019, then opted out of 2020, so he's likely going to drop after not playing for two years, but that might be one hell of a pick.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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McShay is fine, but when he has had any information on the Patriots, or when has his mock draft been remotely close in regard to the Pats? The Pats do feed Schefter information, but not regarding the draft. There are a few local reporters who are much, much better in regards to draft information (Perry, Price, Lazar).
 

Ferm Sheller

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If the Pats do plan to take a QB in the second round, they might want to trade up to do it, correct? I could see them doing a deal with JAX that includes the swap of JAX's 25 and 33 picks for NE's 15 and 46, and then taking that QB with 33 (first pick of second round). Not sure what else JAX would need to give up to make that a fair trade.

Also, maybe that deal would give JAX a shot at Devonta Smith at 15 to pair with their shiny new QB.
 

tims4wins

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If the Pats don't trade up, then I think I'd be totally fine trading down, grabbing some combination of OT / CB / WR with their first rounder and 46, and also using the additional pick they would net in a trade to take a flyer on a Mills or a Trask. I just watched the Florida passing plays from the SEC championship, Trask has some talent and toughness.
 

tims4wins

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If the Pats do plan to take a QB in the second round, they might want to trade up to do it, correct? I could see them doing a deal with JAX that includes the swap of JAX's 25 and 33 picks for NE's 15 and 46, and then taking that QB with 33 (first pick of second round). Not sure what else JAX would need to give up to make that a fair trade.

Also, maybe that deal would give JAX a shot at Devonta Smith at 15 to pair with their shiny new QB.
Per the Rich Hill chart, the 106th pick from Jacksonville would make this basically a dead even trade. Not sure the Pats would really want/need yet another 4th round pick though. They only have so many roster spots. I guess it gives them a chance to move around the board a bit more.

Edit: a better move for the Pats might be to offer 15 + 96 (354 points) for 25 + 45 (361 points). Could also throw in 177/188/197 as a sweetener. I like that deal better for the Pats.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Per the Rich Hill chart, the 106th pick from Jacksonville would make this basically a dead even trade. Not sure the Pats would really want/need yet another 4th round pick though. They only have so many roster spots. I guess it gives them a chance to move around the board a bit more.
That sounds about right. I agree that they won't be looking to add picks, so maybe they could get a third rounder in the 2022 draft instead.
 

DGreenwood

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I've been getting strong "Pats are getting Fields" vibes the past week or so. Seems like the perfect storm of him potentially falling below Mac/Lance in the pecking order with some teams and getting into a tradeable range for the Pats. I don't view #4 as a realistic option for us.
I wonder if the the epilepsy concern gives the Patriots a slight edge beyond just the fact that he may slide. All teams need to factor in the risk of how the medical issue could affect the team's future. But most GMs also have to think about how it could affect their job and/or career if they knowingly take that medical risk on such a high pick and it doesn't work out. BB can just focus on the potential impact on the team.
 

bsj

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That would be an awful pick at 46. Awful. If you think Trask or Mond needs work, look at Mills.
I get it. But I think Mills has more upside, personally. Trask and Mond are, IMO, career backups/low level starters in the making. I think Mills has a middle tier starter ceiling IF someone is willing to put in the work you mention
 
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