Pats Roster Planning: Offense

[Harry Hooper]

I still expect BB to work some trades where a not-terribly-exciting younger, cheaper Patriots player {Uche, Harry, Asiasi, etc.} gets swapped for a cap-strapped team's useful but older, more expensive player.

Cannon seems to be such an obvious cut that no other team was going to offer anything in trade.

Ignoring QB, C is the highest priority, even given the galactic void at TE (and interior DL). WR is a big need as well. A lot of holes to fill!

BB loves Hunter Henry, and he seems to be the only strong receiver/blocker TE on the market. If Jonnu Smith is signed to be the new starting TE, could LaCosse emerge from limbo to be the accompanying blocking TE? If the Pats can't sign either Henry or Smith, does that $ get shifted over to trying to sign a WR?

 

[BigSoxFan]

I still expect BB to work some trades where a not-terribly-exciting younger, cheaper Patriots player {Uche, Harry, Asiasi, etc.} gets swapped for a cap-strapped team's useful but older, more expensive player.

Cannon seems to be such an obvious cut that no other team was going to offer anything in trade.

Ignoring QB, C is the highest priority, even given the galactic void at TE (and interior DL). WR is a big need as well. A lot of holes to fill!

BB loves Hunter Henry, and he seems to be the only strong receiver/blocker TE on the market. If Jonnu Smith is signed to be the new starting TE, could LaCosse emerge from limbo to be the accompanying blocking TE? If the Pats can't sign either Henry or Smith, does that $ get shifted over to trying to sign a WR?

If they don’t sign a Henry/Jonnu type at TE, they had better make a splash at WR.

Feel like Andrews has to be back. He completes the OL and is just so integral to the team.

I remain interested in the trade market. I think there is talent to be had there.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I’m on board with saving the cap if we can. Was playing around with a FA sim and 2 good WR and a TE almost ate the whole cap already

I think that's the best move. They already have a guy who plays a lot like him in Onwenu. For as much as the Patriots do not spend and develop at WR they certainly do with OL.

I think Herron is the swing tackle until proven otherwise. Last year, he filled in for Wynn at LT in Week 3, started at RT in Week 4, played both LT and RT in Week 6, and finished by playing both RT and LG in Week 7. Finished up weeks 16 & 1pm 7 with more time at LT.

Potential depth chart at WR:

1. WR1 (free agent most likely, but maybe first round pick)
2. Edelman
3. Meyers

With Henry, Lee, Olszewski, and a later round draft pick fighting it out for the bottom couple of slots, including PR/KR.

I'm OK with that WR room, if (BIG IF) they can legitimately upgrade the TE room, be that Pitts or Henry.

Agree with Herron - looks like he can develop into a solid swing tackle. Getting a swing tackle and starting RT with two 6th round picks is really tremendous. Early returns on the 2020 draft class are looking like it could be a 3 starters and a quality backup kind of class. That's definitely above average for a return. Would be a home-run if one of the TEs materializes into something.

I think they sign 2 WRs. Someone who can play outside like a Perriman or a John Brown and someone who is a RAC guy like Samuel. If Samuel is too expensive I am not sure who they would go for but there are plenty of RAC guys in the draft.

They had a meeting with Rondale Moore who has injury concerns but his natural ability with the ball in his hands is some of the best in class. If you all get a chance check out Rondale Moore vs Ohio State in 2018.

 

[bsj]

Offensive needs, prioritized in my opinion:

1. WR 1
2. TE 1 (this is almost 1A)
3. C (I pray this is a re-signed Andrews)
4. Pass-catching RB (could be White, but I think he signs in TB; could be Burkhead, but he's likely a PUP candidate; so I expect a FA signing)
5. Backup interior OL who can backup C
6. Road-grading TE2/3

The top 3 slots probably take up about half the cap space (I'm guessing cap-hits of something like $16M, 10M, 7M). #4 is likely not much above $4M and 5 & 6 are either later-round draft picks or vet min signings.

The rest of the cap space would to draft picks and front-7 D help.

My only issue with your post...we enter every season too thin at WR. And historically, with Brady, thats been ok. He could throw to a paper kite and find a window. But newton...he needs WRs. Proven WRs, to help. If the WR1 goes down he cant have "nothing".

To that end, i'd like a proven, if unspectacular, WR2 there. I'd like a WR 1-4 of FA1, FA2, Jakobi, Byrd, etc (Gunner?)...If Edelman can come back again, thats gravy. We are now officially "deep" at the position.

I keep landing on Humphries given their previous interest, his age, and his skillset.

PS- One caveat...I dont want to rely on the draft for this for 2 reasons. 1- This is the year I want them going big and potentially even trading up for a QB (I so want Lance) and 2- Honestly, I dont really trust them when it comes to drafting top WRs

 

[bsj]

FWIW If we still had Brady, I would bet everything I own AJ Green would be coming here on an incentive laden deal, likely to be cut in camp.

 

[RedOctober3829]

According to Albert Breer, the Patriots are still talking to Joe Thuney. It would be amazing if they could get a long term deal done with him before FA, but I have my doubts. I also have my doubts that Bill wants so much money tied up in the two guard positions.

 

[Harry Hooper]

According to Albert Breer, the Patriots are still talking to Joe Thuney. It would be amazing if they could get a long term deal done with him before FA, but I have my doubts. I also have my doubts that Bill wants so much money tied up in the two guard positions.

Maybe Thuney would play center?

 

[BigSoxFan]

Maybe Thuney would play center?

I was also looking at maybe Mason getting traded but they would have to eat $5.9M of dead money and save $3.6M on the cap (vs. $3.2M dead cap and $7.1M savings in 2022) so that feels like a move for next offseason, if it happens.

 

[Shelterdog]

According to Albert Breer, the Patriots are still talking to Joe Thuney. It would be amazing if they could get a long term deal done with him before FA, but I have my doubts. I also have my doubts that Bill wants so much money tied up in the two guard positions.

I think it would behoove Bill to make an exception here if you can get Thuney on a reasonably good contract (still near the top of the league)--guards are, if anything, more important and more expensive in today's league than they've been historically, and there's just so much less risk with an internal signing than there is with a free agent from another team and system.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I think it would behoove Bill to make an exception here if you can get Thuney on a reasonably good contract (still near the top of the league)--guards are, if anything, more important and more expensive in today's league than they've been historically, and there's just so much less risk with an internal signing than there is with a free agent from another team and system.

Plus, Thuney is as reliable as it gets. Obviously there is some luck involved with staying on the field so consistently, but it ain’t all luck.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I think it would behoove Bill to make an exception here if you can get Thuney on a reasonably good contract (still near the top of the league)--guards are, if anything, more important and more expensive in today's league than they've been historically, and there's just so much less risk with an internal signing than there is with a free agent from another team and system.

Agreed, but given how many other holes they have can they afford to spend big on another guard when Onwenu is a capable replacement?

 

[lexrageorge]

Agreed, but given how many other holes they have can they afford to spend big on another guard when Onwenu is a capable replacement?

Maybe they are looking at insurance in case Andrews leaves.

We haven't heard anything about talks between the Pats and Andrews' camp, so it's conceivable Andrews may be testing the market. If Thuney resigns, then they could move him or perhaps Mason to center if Andrews should leave. The team can only talk to those parties that are willing to talk now, and GM Bill should at least be performing due diligence before assuming a player like Thuney cannot be retained.

 

[Shelterdog]

Agreed, but given how many other holes they have can they afford to spend big on another guard when Onwenu is a capable replacement?

I'll take my chances. Even if you resign Andrews and Thuney I and Onwenu starts the season as your sixth lineman behind Wynn/Thuney/Andews/Mason/Brown I betcha Onwenu gets a pretty good amount of work between injuires and six o-line sets.

 

[Saints Rest]

Agreed, but given how many other holes they have can they afford to spend big on another guard when Onwenu is a capable replacement?

That almost guarantees they sign him.

It always amazes me how often BB signs someone who seems to be adding depth in a presumptive position of strength even when there are glaring holes elsewhere.

 

[DJnVa]

It could be as simple as staying in touch, because maybe the market doesn't develop quite as much as Thuney hopes and Pats would obviously be willing at some price point.

 

[Harry Hooper]

It could be as simple as staying in touch, because maybe the market doesn't develop quite as much as Thuney hopes and Pats would obviously be willing at some price point.

Maybe even on a 1-year deal if his agent thinks there will be more $ chasing FAs next year?

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

With the amount of holes on the roster, I'm good with Thuney walking.

Brown - Onwenu - Andrews - Mason - Wynn is a top tier line. Spending another $15m on a guard is a poor use of resources. Sign two solid backups for 6-7m - or draft a guy late and save some money - and move onto other pieces.

 

[Saints Rest]

That almost guarantees they sign him.

It always amazes me how often BB signs someone who seems to be adding depth in a presumptive position of strength even when there are glaring holes elsewhere.

Jalen Mills, come on down!

 

[azsoxpatsfan]

Bourne would have been tied with White for second on the team in receptions, tied with Burkhead for first in TDs, and would have been second in yards behind Meyers. Agholor would have been first in yards, first in TDs, and fourth (one behind White) in receptions. Plus Jonnu, who would have been third in yards and first in TDs, and the teams pass offense is going to be so so so much better.

 

[BigSoxFan]

the teams pass offense is going to be so so so much better.

Well, at least the talent will be better. We’ll see if Cam can actually connect with any of them.

 

[E5 Yaz]

View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1371610640717115394

 

[BigSoxFan]

View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1371610640717115394

This group is still far from imposing. We have no idea if Edelman has much left at his age. Harry is a complete non-factor. Agholor, Bourne, and Meyers are all solid secondary options but nothing more. This group really needs a headliner but that ship seems to have sailed. BB has seemingly chosen two solid WRs over a true #1 type.

 

[BaseballJones]

The only thing about the Pats signing all these guys today is that the rest of free agency will seem boring at this point. Oh well!

The WR group isn't a top-NFL unit, but it's MUCH MUCH improved over this past year's. And honestly, that's really all we could hope for. They could still draft a stud as well.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

This group is still far from imposing. We have no idea if Edelman has much left at his age. Harry is a complete non-factor. Agholor, Bourne, and Meyers are all solid secondary options but nothing more. This group really needs a headliner but that ship seems to have sailed. BB has seemingly chosen two solid WRs over a true #1 type.

I don’t think there is a true number one - if by that you mean hands down matchup nightmare - available at WR.

I think Allen Robinson would’ve been that guy. Golladay, Samuel? Good players, but I wouldn’t really feel any better with them over Agholor plus equity.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1371610640717115394

He forgot Matt Slater!

 

[DJnVa]

This group is still far from imposing. We have no idea if Edelman has much left at his age. Harry is a complete non-factor. Agholor, Bourne, and Meyers are all solid secondary options but nothing more. This group really needs a headliner but that ship seems to have sailed. BB has seemingly chosen two solid WRs over a true #1 type.

Who was the #1 available?

 

[RG33]

This group is still far from imposing. We have no idea if Edelman has much left at his age. Harry is a complete non-factor. Agholor, Bourne, and Meyers are all solid secondary options but nothing more. This group really needs a headliner but that ship seems to have sailed. BB has seemingly chosen two solid WRs over a true #1 type.

If only the Patriots and Belichick had a history of winning and putting together elite offenses without a true game-changing #1 WR. . .

 

[Ferm Sheller]

This group is still far from imposing. We have no idea if Edelman has much left at his age. Harry is a complete non-factor. Agholor, Bourne, and Meyers are all solid secondary options but nothing more. This group really needs a headliner but that ship seems to have sailed. BB has seemingly chosen two solid WRs over a true #1 type.

I'm holding out hope that Harry's problem is that he's been playing in a talent-deprived offense since the day he started. Maybe with a little more talent around him, he'll elevate his game.

 

[azsoxpatsfan]

Who was the #1 available?

Depends what you mean by #1, but Golladay had like 1200 and 11 tds in 2019. Sat out tons of 2020 for “injury” (didn’t want to play without an extension). Idk if that qualifies, because it’s pretty subjective. Either way, I’m ecstatic with what they’ve done today, even if the WR corps lacks a true #1

 

[BigSoxFan]

Who was the #1 available?

Kenny Golladay is a #1 when healthy. I don’t blame them for passing due to injury concerns but he’s a real matchup problem that we don’t really have right now. Hard to evaluate until we see what number he comes in at. If he gets Thuney money, then I like our approach more.

 

[Average Game James]

They didn't add a legit #1 WR, but after the Brown trade and the FA frenzy all they need to do now is re-sign Andrews and they have legitimate NFL caliber talent across the roster. Bill can very much go best player available in the draft with no gaping holes to fill. With that in mind, what can we hope for in the draft?

1. QB - if Bill loves loves someone outside of Lawrence/Fields, they probably have the ammo to trade into the 5-10 range
2. WR - I'm hardly a scout, but the draft seems littered with smaller slot-types and short on true outside receivers - I like the idea of Bateman as the inside/outside threat the Pats haven't had, but 15 seems a bit high?
3. Pass catching RB - Najee Harris and Etienne probably go too high, but in the middle rounds there should be some options (Carter, Gainwell, Felton - all check the box as receivers, though I have no idea about any of them as pass blockers)
4. Developmental OL - preferably a tackle with Brown on a 1yr deal and Wynn's 5th year option not picked up to my knowledge?

 

[E5 Yaz]

They could always trade for OBJ

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

They could always trade for OBJ

The OBJ for Gilmore (and pick swaps) seems to be the rumor that's still being shilled at various boards.

Of course, a lot of question marks for OBJ as he won't be back until mid-season, recovering from his torn ACL injury.

 

[rodderick]

They've put together such a good OL (provided they re-sign Andrews, which I believe will happen) and added effective enough pass catchers that now I really, really want them to go get a QB in this draft. They've gone from "I don't know if you could expect a rookie to do anything in this offense" to "the pieces are there for a young guy not to embarrass himself early". Of course, this is predicated on my belief that Cam isn't getting you anywhere and that they should use this season as a building block to something greater. The team is now good enough that I don't think they'll be in any better position to go grab Brady's successor in next year's draft, just got after him now (if they actually like any of those guys, of course).

 

[BaseballJones]

The key thing is that they've got virtually all their roster holes filled (except for C maybe), with the glaring exception of QB (if you don't believe in Cam). Here's what they have left:

~$15m in cap space

The following draft picks:

• 1st Round-15th overall
• 2nd Round-46th overall
• 3rd Round -96th overall
• 4th Round-121st overall
• 4th Round-139th overall
• 5th Round -159th overall
• 6th Round-195th overall
• 6th Round-197th overall
• 7th Round-243 overall

This should be plenty of ammo - especially if they are willing to throw in current players - to move up in the draft to select Trey Lance, if that's who they like. I'd even be comfortable with them drafting Mac Jones without any trades, which would leave them tons of ammo to add additional help.

It's already been one hell of an offseason for New England.

 

[bsj]

If only the Patriots and Belichick had a history of winning and putting together elite offenses without a true game-changing #1 WR. . .

Yeah but he had a QB that could elevate those guys.

 

[rodderick]

The key thing is that they've got virtually all their roster holes filled (except for C maybe), with the glaring exception of QB (if you don't believe in Cam). Here's what they have left:

~$15m in cap space

The following draft picks:

• 1st Round-15th overall
• 2nd Round-46th overall
• 3rd Round -96th overall
• 4th Round-121st overall
• 4th Round-139th overall
• 5th Round -159th overall
• 6th Round-195th overall
• 6th Round-197th overall
• 7th Round-243 overall

This should be plenty of ammo - especially if they are willing to throw in current players - to move up in the draft to select Trey Lance, if that's who they like. I'd even be comfortable with them drafting Mac Jones without any trades, which would leave them tons of ammo to add additional help.

It's already been one hell of an offseason for New England.

That's what I want, in this exact order of preference. I think even if Cam plays well it won't be at a level that makes the Pats true contenders this year and then he's likely gone the next and we'll be in the same position with likely a worse draft spot. Pull the band-aid out now.

 

[bsj]

This should be plenty of ammo - especially if they are willing to throw in current players - to move up in the draft to select Trey Lance, if that's who they like. I'd even be comfortable with them drafting Mac Jones without any trades, which would leave them tons of ammo to add additional help.

It's already been one hell of an offseason for New England.

I feel similarly. They have added enough pieces for 2021 that they can use that 1st rounder to finally get their QB of the future, while still not conceding the WIN NOW mentality. If ever there was a time you could afford to spend the capital to draft a player of this magnitude who won't play a down in 2021, its in the year you outspent the league building your 2021 team in FA.

 

[BaseballJones]

That's what I want, in this exact order of preference. I think even if Cam plays well it won't be at a level that makes the Pats true contenders this year and then he's likely gone the next and we'll be in the same position with likely a worse draft spot. Pull the band-aid out now.

I feel similarly. They have added enough pieces for 2021 that they can use that 1st rounder to finally get their QB of the future, while still not conceding the WIN NOW mentality. If ever there was a time you could afford to spend the capital to draft a player of this magnitude who won't play a down in 2021, its in the year you outspent the league building your 2021 team in FA.

Yep I agree with you both. That's what I hope happens.

 

[Average Game James]

The key thing is that they've got virtually all their roster holes filled (except for C maybe), with the glaring exception of QB (if you don't believe in Cam). Here's what they have left:

~$15m in cap space

The following draft picks:

• 1st Round-15th overall
• 2nd Round-46th overall
• 3rd Round -96th overall
• 4th Round-121st overall
• 4th Round-139th overall
• 5th Round -159th overall
• 6th Round-195th overall
• 6th Round-197th overall
• 7th Round-243 overall

This should be plenty of ammo - especially if they are willing to throw in current players - to move up in the draft to select Trey Lance, if that's who they like. I'd even be comfortable with them drafting Mac Jones without any trades, which would leave them tons of ammo to add additional help.

It's already been one hell of an offseason for New England.

Are those picks updated for the Cannon trade?

 

[bsj]

For the Patriots to move from 15 to, say, 5...it would cost them in the range of their own 1, their 2, and likely a 2022 2.

That is essentially 2 2nd rounders for your qb of the future. If you believe in the guy, go get him.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

For the Patriots to move from 15 to, say, 5...it would cost them in the range of their own 1, their 2, and likely a 2022 2.

That is essentially 2 2nd rounders for your qb of the future. If you believe in the guy, go get him.

Assuming that there's a team willing to move down. That's always a big assumption.

The top three teams likely won't deal, or won't deal to the Pats. Atlanta may be looking to pick a QB of their own at 4, Cincy could want Sewell to protect Burrow, Philly might have its heart set on Pitts, etc.

 

[BaseballJones]

Are those picks updated for the Cannon trade?

Oh they might not be. After the trade:

• 1st Round-15th overall
• 2nd Round-46th overall
• 3rd Round -96th overall
• 4th Round-121st overall 109th overall
• 4th Round-139th overall
• 5th Round -159th overall 147th overall
• 6th Round-195th overall
• 6th Round-197th overall 187th overall
• 7th Round-243 overall

 

[Mystic Merlin]

For the Patriots to move from 15 to, say, 5...it would cost them in the range of their own 1, their 2, and likely a 2022 2.

That is essentially 2 2nd rounders for your qb of the future. If you believe in the guy, go get him.

Who has traded from 15 to 5, or a similar jump to the top ten, without having to part with a future first?

And this assumes the Pats will have a willing seller, of course. At 5, you may have a shot at Pitts or Sewell, those are tough players to pass on.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

That's what I want, in this exact order of preference. I think even if Cam plays well it won't be at a level that makes the Pats true contenders this year and then he's likely gone the next and we'll be in the same position with likely a worse draft spot. Pull the band-aid out now.

Yikes. Where do you put your bandaids?

 

[DJnVa]

View: https://twitter.com/albertbreer/status/1371801127038107653?s=21

 

[bsj]

Who has traded from 15 to 5, or a similar jump to the top ten, without having to part with a future first?

And this assumes the Pats will have a willing seller, of course. At 5, you may have a shot at Pitts or Sewell, those are tough players to pass on.

Fair point. I was using the pick value chart. I guess there would be a premium there.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

View: https://twitter.com/albertbreer/status/1371801127038107653?s=21

That's weird, and I'm not sure I believe it. Fournette had such a strong playoff run that youd think hed have some suitors willing to spend a little for him. I know the Patriots like having a stable of backs, but I'd have to imagine Fournette is priced a little too high to replace Burkhead.

They need to replace Burkhead and White. Fournette isnt a pass catcher, and hes too expensive for the Burkhead role (I think).

 

[BigSoxFan]

Fournette was dog turds for much of 2020. Great playoff run but let someone else pay for that production. I would like a shiftier RB in the White role (or White himself).

 

[moondog80]

View: https://twitter.com/albertbreer/status/1371801127038107653?s=21

If they do end up with Ornette, it will (I'd hope) have zero to do with who they are taking him from.