Pats vs Texans: The buildup

[Harry Hooper]

All week long, people will try to sell me on the fact that Houston has a very good defense, on how Ostelburgermystermysterburger is a good QB, any given Sunday, blah, blah, blah; sell it all you want, I'm not buying any of it.

The fear-mongering will center on the parallels to the 2010 season. Patriots thoroughly embarrass opponent on national broadcast in the regular season, but then inexplicably lose the playoff game in Foxborough against the same foe.

O'Brien should hire Rex Ryan as a special consultant this week.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

They used their one move off of IR on Brennan Scarlett.

But he is their head cheerleader!

 

[Curt S Loew]

Possibly Vince Wilfork's final game will be in Foxboro.

"Possibly" is hilarious.

I believe the "possibly" is in reference to Wilfork hasn't officially decided to retire. Not the outcome of the game.

 

[snowmanny]

This article says it's the fourth largest point spread in NFL playoff history behind 49ers/Falcons Super Bowl (19), Super Bowl III (18) and the 1998 (15-1) Vikings vs the Cardinals (16.5):

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/texans-patriots-point-spread-is-huge-but-its-not-the-largest-playoff-spread-ever-214611908.html

49ers/Chargers, of course. Sorry

 

[richgedman'sghost]

Do you mean 49ers Chargers Super Bowl in 1995?

 

[snowmanny]

Do you mean Broncos Falcons Super Bowl?

Sorry, Niners/Chargers

 

[54thMA]

The fear-mongering will center on the parallels to the 2010 season. Patriots thoroughly embarrass opponent on national broadcast in the regular season, but then inexplicably lose the playoff game in Foxborough against the same foe.

O'Brien should hire Rex Ryan as a special consultant this week.

Felger and Mazz are on it as we speak.

 

[staz]

A stress-free 31-16 tune up for Pittsburgh.

 

[BroodsSexton]

58 posts and no

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

The Miami game has me especially confident. Last year, it was like they had forgotten how to just beat the shit out of bad teams and actually believed Belichick's press quotes.

Now, they've got the swagger back. Really looking forward to being in the Razor for this one.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I believe the "possibly" is in reference to Wilfork hasn't officially decided to retire. Not the outcome of the game.

Yeah, I know, but my money is on he does. (Also, I realized that a nano-second before hitting "post reply" and then got distracted bc I have a five year old and/or am lazy.)

 

[wiffleballhero]

I am surprised that a couple people are so quick to declare that we would rather see KC in the AFCCG. Looks like a wash to me.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I am surprised that a couple people are so quick to declare that we would rather see KC in the AFCCG. Look like a wash to me.

KC is much easier to shut down. Brown and Bell are beasts and can strike at any moment. Shoot outs can be a toss up. I'd much rather deal with KC's slightly better d and much weaker offense.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I am surprised that a couple people are so quick to declare that we would rather see KC in the AFCCG. Looks like a wash to me.

KC needs two things in order to win. Big scoring plays and turnovers.

Patriots defense is made to not give up big plays, and Tom Brady just set the single season record for TD-INT ratio.

I'd take KC any day of the fucking week.

 

[DJnVa]

The Miami game has me especially confident. Last year, it was like they had forgotten how to just beat the shit out of bad teams and actually believed Belichick's press quotes.

The BB press quotes where he always talks about how good the upcoming opponent is?

 

[genoasalami]

Early read on weather Saturday via the GFS. Dry and chilly. In the 20°s/30°s. Still a bit early. Will update later in week.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

In the locker room before the Super Bowl against the Vikings, Oakland Raiders coach John Madden addressed the team and said something like "You'll remember this day for the rest of your lives. But only if you win." Which I think was a way of trying to motivate his team when he felt they were prohibitive favorites. Maybe that sort of focusing on the horrors of what a loss would be has to be the motivation for the Pats, too.

 

[CreedBratton]

KC needs two things in order to win. Big scoring plays and turnovers.

Patriots defense is made to not give up big plays, and Tom Brady just set the single season record for TD-INT ratio.

I'd take KC any day of the fucking week.

Agreed. Bell and Brown are insanely good. Want no part of that.

 

[LesterFan]

The Texans had a -49 (!!!) point differential. They are horrible. Pats could start Brissett again and win easily.

 

[Oppo]

The Texans had a -49 (!!!) point differential. They are horrible. Pats could start Brissett again and win easily.

Start Jimmy G to increase his price to two 1st round picks!

 

[WheresDewey]

This should be a laugher barring injuries or an any given Sunday scenario. I just hope the Foxboro faithful give Vince Wilfork a huge ovation as he enters and leaves the field.

 

[dbn]

I'm not sure who of KC and PITT is the better team right now, but I agree with PP and KFP that KC is a more favorable matchup for NE for the reasons given.

That said, someone talk to me about Justin Houston and the KC pass rush. I haven't seen them much this year.

edit: doing some internetting, I see that he's not played recently but may be back for the Division Round game.

 

[jimbobim]

I'm sure BB will be pumping up the Texans D all week.

The reality is the Texans are being given no chance because every single time any neutral observer has taken them seriously in a non AFC South Divisional game they've shit themselves.

The Texans offense under Brock is on its face built around Hopkins and Miller as playmakers. In reality , Brock is addicted to checking down to his less talented TE to an almost comical degree. Their deep threat Fuller drops at least once crucial ball every game.

I guess Hopkins could go off but he's 100 percent getting bracketed I'd think.

Mercilus and Clowney are problematic but the Pats oline has been very decent all year. Bouye has had a nice year at corner.

The Texas would essentially need a D touchdown a ST touchdown serious fumbling issues and or several injuries to win this. Of note their ST is pretty bad.

Dominate and move on .

 

[Stitch01]

Pretty much. The Eagles game last year is the "blueprint". Two special teams TDs and a 14 point swing pick six and they have a shot. Or three linemen getting hurt early. Any given Sunday and stuff but this is as close to a playoff team having zero chance as we'll likely ever see.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Is this an unpopular opinion? Houston is a trash team, and any rooting for Miami I think was solely due to not having to play Pittsburgh in Championship weekend.

The Texans are vastly worse. Miami was a frisky team that didn't play well today but could scare you. Houston just sucks.

 

[BigSoxFan]

In the last playoff game in 2012, Danieal Manning nearly took the opening kickoff to the house but McCourty raced down Ben Watson style and tackled him before he could get in. They went on to settle for a FG and the game was pretty much done at that point. I think the Texans need a start like that and to finish off the drive with a TD. Or, kick off to the Pats and force an early turnover in Pats territory that leads to a TD so that they have a 7-0 lead and the ball in the 2nd half.

Some people will make a big deal about the Crennel, Vrabel, etc. factor but it hasn't meant much to-date and the Pats offense is vastly different from when they were here. In addition, it's much different from Week 3 given that Lewis, Mitchell, and maybe Floyd will be playing in this one.

People like to reference the Jets game but that Jets defense was much better than the one we'll face in a few days and it featured a true comedy of errors by the whole team, including Brady throwing an awful INT on a screen pass on the opening drive, Alge Crumpler dropping a TD pass after the defense held and forced a missed FG, and obviously the Chung play at the end of the half.

Bottom line is that if they play smart, they advance to another AFCCG but if they play sloppy then anything can happen.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Picking a nit, Mitchell played in week 3.

 

[jsinger121]

Picking a nit, Mitchell played in week 3.

Yes but he dididn't do much until the 2nd half of the season and Brady didn't even play in that game.

 

[BaseballJones]

I'm going to be shitting my pants all week about this one.

Once the playoffs roll around, I'm pretty much like this with every game the Pats play, no matter the opponent. I can always dream up a fairly realistic scenario whereby the Pats lose. And often enough, it happens.

This game SHOULD be a relatively straightforward win for the Patriots, but I won't feel good until the deal is sealed.

Let's not forget that Brock beat the Patriots in Denver last year. Obviously last year's Denver team playing at home is different than this year's Texans team playing in Foxboro, but in terms of Osweiler vs. the Pats... Last year he had pretty decent success against the Pats: 23-42, 270 yds, 1 td, 1 int. If he can do that, and if Miller can get running some (and he's very good), and their defense actually shows up (and they ARE ranked #1 in the NFL by yards allowed), maybe generates a couple of turnovers.... This game could be way way way too close for comfort.

None of those things are "that's totally crazy" kind of things.

 

[bluefenderstrat]

The Patriots will win by 25 points--Houston simply does not have the talent to stay with them. They aren't good.

 

[johnmd20]

Once the playoffs roll around, I'm pretty much like this with every game the Pats play, no matter the opponent. I can always dream up a fairly realistic scenario whereby the Pats lose. And often enough, it happens.

This game SHOULD be a relatively straightforward win for the Patriots, but I won't feel good until the deal is sealed.

Let's not forget that Brock beat the Patriots in Denver last year. Obviously last year's Denver team playing at home is different than this year's Texans team playing in Foxboro, but in terms of Osweiler vs. the Pats... Last year he had pretty decent success against the Pats: 23-42, 270 yds, 1 td, 1 int. If he can do that, and if Miller can get running some (and he's very good), and their defense actually shows up (and they ARE ranked #1 in the NFL by yards allowed), maybe generates a couple of turnovers.... This game could be way way way too close for comfort.

None of those things are "that's totally crazy" kind of things.

They are all totally crazy kind of things and for the Pats to lose this game, 10 separate and catastrophic things have to occur. This isn't a hot take. It's a fact. Houston's a bad team, with a really bad offense, on the road with a terrible QB.

Brock didn't "beat" the Patriots in Denver, as much as Manning didn't "beat" the Patriots in the Championship game. Their historically great defense did that. Houston's D is solid, no doubt, but this is a different team in just about every way. On the road. Houston shut down Oakland because they were starting Connor Cook.

 

[Royal Reader]

Am I alone in liking the Texans against the spread? Especially if it goes any higher. Captain Obvious, but 16 points is a lot. Could easily see this being a roughly two touchdown game.

 

[johnmd20]

Am I alone in liking the Texans against the spread? Especially if it goes any higher. Captain Obvious, but 16 points is a lot. Could easily see this being a roughly two touchdown game.

16 points is no man's land. The Pats could be leading by 28 in the 4th quarter with 10 minutes left, with Brady on the bench, and the bet will still be in play.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Houston in this scenario reminds me a lot of Miami in Pittsburgh. There are objective reasons why either could compete, albeit fewer in Houston's case, and a lot would have to go well for that to happen, as noted in many posts above. But once you roll the ball out there in a cold, hostile environment, you just know it's only a matter of time before the talent overwhelms the visitor.

The Patriots rarely fall prey to the Trap Game. Bill is second to none in keeping them focused on what's in front of them. That's clearly key this week, as players from both teams are going to be reading and hearing how this will be a blow out. Houston WILL use that for motivation and the Pats WILL be coached to not let that make them overconfident. Reason Number 16,935 why we're fortunate to have Bill Belichick as the HC of the NEP.

PS: Tom talking the talk on WEEI this morning:

"I don't think you take anything for granted. I don't think you mail in your preparation. I think we go about it the exact same way we've gone about it all year -- we put everything into it this week, we empty the tank in our practices, which we always do, and then you come out the end of the week with confidence and ready to go out there and show everyone that we're prepared and we can play."

 

[BaseballJones]

They are all totally crazy kind of things and for the Pats to lose this game, 10 separate and catastrophic things have to occur. This isn't a hot take. It's a fact. Houston's a bad team, with a really bad offense, on the road with a terrible QB.

Brock didn't "beat" the Patriots in Denver, as much as Manning didn't "beat" the Patriots in the Championship game. Their historically great defense did that. Houston's D is solid, no doubt, but this is a different team in just about every way. On the road. Houston shut down Oakland because they were starting Connor Cook.

It's crazy to think that Brock can throw for 270 yards, 1 td, and 1 int on Saturday?

It's crazy to think that their defense could possibly have a good game and create a turnover or two?

I mean, I think the Pats win by two TDs, but I can't believe that you honestly believe it's *crazy* to imagine Brock having that kind of game (look at those numbers...we're not talking about a 350 yard, 4 td, 130 rating kind of game), Miller running well, and that the Pats could turn the ball over a couple of times against a good defense.

I think the real reason people like me get antsy is because if the team has a slip up in the regular season, it stinks, but it's not that huge a deal. You just go on and play next week. If you slip up in the playoffs, boom, season over. So you cannot afford to slip up.

I fully expect the Pats to win, but I am always nervous before playoff games.

 

[johnmd20]

It's crazy to think that Brock can throw for 270 yards, 1 td, and 1 int on Saturday?

It's crazy to think that their defense could possibly have a good game and create a turnover or two?

I mean, I think the Pats win by two TDs, but I can't believe that you honestly believe it's *crazy* to imagine Brock having that kind of game (look at those numbers...we're not talking about a 350 yard, 4 td, 130 rating kind of game), Miller running well, and that the Pats could turn the ball over a couple of times against a good defense.

I think the real reason people like me get antsy is because if the team has a slip up in the regular season, it stinks, but it's not that huge a deal. You just go on and play next week. If you slip up in the playoffs, boom, season over. So you cannot afford to slip up.

I fully expect the Pats to win, but I am always nervous before playoff games.

The Patriots can slip up multiple times on Saturday and they are still going to win. Just because you feel antsy doesn't mean it's a fact that you should be antsy. Houston is a bad team. 270 yards, 1 td, 1 int looks like a stat line that will result in a 31-10 loss.

 

[BaseballJones]

The Patriots can slip up multiple times on Saturday and they are still going to win. Just because you feel antsy doesn't mean it's a fact that you should be antsy. Houston is a bad team. 270 yards, 1 td, 1 int looks like a stat line that will result in a 31-10 loss.

OK sure hope you're right!

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Best offense vs average defense.

Best ppg defense against bottom 3 offense.

Belichick vs Obrien.

Patriots on two weeks rest vs travelling Houston team.

If the Patriots lose this, it would probably be the largest upset in playoff history. I'm counting my eggs and analyzing Pitt/KC.

 

[joe dokes]

In Denver BrockOstomy was surrounded by 45 other players who were damn sure they could beat the Patriots. I dont think thats the case now. He might make some plays, but a "good" game from him wont be enough and I don't see how he can be more than "good."

 

[johnmd20]

Best offense vs average defense.

Best ppg defense against bottom 3 offense.

Belichick vs Obrien.

Patriots on two weeks rest vs travelling Houston team.

If the Patriots lose this, it would probably be the largest upset in playoff history. I'm counting my eggs and analyzing Pitt/KC.

It would be the biggest upset in the modern era. From a point spread perspective, it wouldn't be as big as the Jets SB victory, but that was a long time ago, before teams were analyzed in the way they are now.

The Patriots losing "could" happen in the same way lightning could kill Tom Brady tomorrow or you could suddenly become handsome.

 

[semsox]

It's crazy to think that Brock can throw for 270 yards, 1 td, and 1 int on Saturday?

If Brock throws for 270 yards in this game, it'll be the first time he's hit that number this season. He is not good.

(to be fair, he's thrown for 269 vs the Colts in OT and 268 vs KC in September)

 

[ShaneTrot]

Best offense vs average defense.

Best ppg defense against bottom 3 offense.

Belichick vs Obrien.

Patriots on two weeks rest vs travelling Houston team.

If the Patriots lose this, it would probably be the largest upset in playoff history. I'm counting my eggs and analyzing Pitt/KC.

I actually think Billy O is a good coach. Besides the receivers, a couple O-lineman and some guys on defense, this roster blows. Their special teams are terrible which is usually an indication of roster depth. He is not in charge of personnel. Yet, he has them in the playoffs. He lost Watt this year which was huge. The division blows but he won it, with by far the worst QB in the division. He can coach.

 

[Erik Hanson's Hook]

Best offense vs average defense.

Best ppg defense against bottom 3 offense.

Belichick vs Obrien.

Patriots on two weeks rest vs travelling Houston team.

If the Patriots lose this, it would probably be the largest upset in playoff history. I'm counting my eggs and analyzing Pitt/KC.

I fully expect a win, but are we sure they're average?

Everything else I agree with, with exception that I think O'Brien can coach a little.

 

[jsinger121]

I fully expect a win, but are we sure they're average?

Everything else I agree with, with exception that I think O'Brien can coach a little.

On paper they are penned as the #1 defense but I think that is a crock of shit. Pats are much better in the only stat that matters in PPG.

 

[Stitch01]

It's crazy to think that Brock can throw for 270 yards, 1 td, and 1 int on Saturday?

It's crazy to think that their defense could possibly have a good game and create a turnover or two?

I mean, I think the Pats win by two TDs, but I can't believe that you honestly believe it's *crazy* to imagine Brock having that kind of game (look at those numbers...we're not talking about a 350 yard, 4 td, 130 rating kind of game), Miller running well, and that the Pats could turn the ball over a couple of times against a good defense.

I think the real reason people like me get antsy is because if the team has a slip up in the regular season, it stinks, but it's not that huge a deal. You just go on and play next week. If you slip up in the playoffs, boom, season over. So you cannot afford to slip up.

I fully expect the Pats to win, but I am always nervous before playoff games.

Its not crazy for Brock to throw for 270 yards, but if he does 150 or so are going to come when its like 34-3 and no one gives a shit.

 

[TeddyBallgame'sDirtbagSon]

Big Ice storm forecast for the game in KC. This might be played without fans in attendance.

 

[Curtis Pride]

Fun stat: The 27 points the Texans scored Saturday tied the most they've scored in a game all season. The Patriots offense averaged 27.6 points per game in the same span.

 

[johnmd20]

Fun stat: The 27 points the Texans scored Saturday tied the most they've scored in a game all season. The Patriots offense averaged 27.6 points per game in the same span.

And they were only able to muster those points against Oakland and Connor Cook. There were a lot of short fields for Hou. Houston is a terrible team, they won because Oakland was gutted.

 

[DJnVa]

The line has dropped to 15.5!!!! Oh no.

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

EDIT: Also, public is hammering Green Bay.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I'm going to be shitting my pants all week about this one.

Hey don't under estimate Sav...Osw...

No way in hell Pats are losing. Even if Brady gets knocked out for a quarter we already know that our backup QBs are better. Hahaha