PHOENIX — Day 1 of the general managers meetings is in the books, and we already have a couple of key pieces of information that could influence the shape of the Red Sox rotation in 2015.
First there’s the news — first reported by FoxSports.com — that Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels has a no-trade clause that includes the Red Sox. This doesn’t preclude the sides from striking a deal, but it means the Sox theoretically have to give Hamels something to waive his no-trade. That theoretical something probably would be his $20 million option for 2019.
Then there’s the notion coming out of Reds camp that Cincinnati does not want to move ace right-hander Johnny Cueto this winter, preferring instead to start next season with him on the roster and think about a trade deadline deal if things go south.
Both pitchers could be of interest to the Red Sox, but both might now be harder to acquire. This all shines some light on just how tricky it’s going to be to upgrade a rotation that needs two and maybe even three new arms this winter.
Let’s start with Hamels. If the Red Sox want to acquire him to anchor their rotation, they’re going to have to step to the plate in a big way.
Hamels has four years and $90 million remaining on his current contract. Those terms are viewed as favorable from a Red Sox perspective, but Hamels also has the $20 million option for 2019 that he could demand as a condition of waiving his no-trade.
That would bump his deal up to five years and $110 million, which still is below the market rate for a No. 1 starter who turns 31 next month. But it would alter the calculus of acquiring him, and that’s before even considering what the Red Sox might have to part with in a trade. Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro is expected to demand at least three top prospects in return, according to CSNPhilly.com.
Hamels’ no-trade list is more about leverage than a desire to avoid a particular city. Listing a big-market club on the no-trade provision attached to a big-money contract is good business, since these are the teams most likely to assume such a deal and most capable of paying a concession to make it happen.
The thought out of Philadelphia is that any trade for Hamels would require the Red Sox to give up catcher Blake Swihart and left-hander Henry Owens as a starting point, with another upper-level prospect in the mix as well. That’s a steep price to pay when all it would take to sign a superior pitcher like free agent Jon Lester is cash.
Put another way, the Sox would have to decide if three top prospects are worth the extra $30-$40 million it would take to land Lester.
Then there’s Cueto. He was the second-best pitcher in the NL behind Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw after going 20-9 with a 2.25 ERA and league-leading 242 strikeouts.
Cueto turns 29 in February and would give the Red Sox an explosive young arm to build around. But the Reds are hosting the All-Star Game next year and are only one season removed from the NL wild card game (which Cueto lost to Pittsburgh in 2013).
They believe they can contend in the NL Central and don’t necessarily agree with the narrative that they’ll have to trade a starter this winter, since four of them are set to be free agents after next season — Cueto, Mike Leake, Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon.
If Cueto is available, he’d rank high atop the Red Sox’ Sox wish list. If he’s not, they’ll have to turn their attention elsewhere.
The offseason intrigue is only just beginning.
