Phillies will look to trade Cole Hamels, Red Sox interested

[Savin Hillbilly]

But is anybody really suggesting that trading for Hamels--now that we know it's a 5/110 contract we're trading for--is preferable to signing Lester? I thought it went without saying that a Hamels trade implies we've lost the Lester sweepstakes to some other team. In which case saying, "we shouldn't trade for Hamels, we should sign Lester" is kind of a non sequitur.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

But is anybody really suggesting that trading for Hamels--now that we know it's a 5/110 contract we're trading for--is preferable to signing Lester? I thought it went without saying that a Hamels trade implies we've lost the Lester sweepstakes to some other team. In which case saying, "we shouldn't trade for Hamels, we should sign Lester" is kind of a non sequitur.

I am saying they aren't mutually exclusive. Given the Sox recent propensity to spending money, and the pennies on the books in 2016, they can easily afford both Lester and Hamels, even after the Panda and Hanley deals.

Buch, Cespedes, Vic, Mujica, Napoli among others make plenty of room. They've already made the LT pretty irrelevant for 2015, so why not go for both?

 

[OnWisc]

But is anybody really suggesting that trading for Hamels--now that we know it's a 5/110 contract we're trading for--is preferable to signing Lester? I thought it went without saying that a Hamels trade implies we've lost the Lester sweepstakes to some other team. In which case saying, "we shouldn't trade for Hamels, we should sign Lester" is kind of a non sequitur.

I may have misread the context. If we're assuming that Lester and Hamels are off the board and have signed at enough years and money to render Hamel's contract substantially below market, then Owens could make sense. But if Lester goes elsewhere for like 6/135 and we ship Owens to Philly for Hamels, I think a lot of people would be disappointed.

Basically you look at Lester @ 6/$X = Hamels @ 5/$107 + Owens and solve for X. If Lester goes for over that, then Owens is a reasonable piece. I think it's unlikely that happens. And I don't think the Sox would really be considering such a deal unless the Lester talks progressed to the point where they knew it was heading above $140.

 

[Devizier]

Hmm.. a lot of people have been penciling Garin Cecchini in the Red Sox's future but I'm not so sure. Now the Phillies have a good prospect in Cody Asche at third base, but he struggled a bit last year and his glove is suspect. Just idly speculating here, but I could see the Red Sox dealing from their (newfound) position of strength.

 

[MakMan44]

Sure, but the Phillies only really good prospect also plays 3rd. He could've played 1st but they have an anchor over there right now. It's not out of the realms of possibility, but I'm not sure it'll happen. 

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

Cecchini was also playing some outfield in Pawtucket, IIRC, so he isn't necessarily locked in as a 3B. Athletic enough to make that move for sure.

 

[Corsi]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale  1m1 minute ago
The #RedSox, who also have an offer for Jon Lester, also have had the most serious talks with the #Phillies for Cole Hamels.

 

[Corsi]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan  11s12 seconds ago
The Phillies are confident that if Red Sox don't get Jon Lester, Boston's desire for an ace will make a Cole Hamels trade very likely.

 

[nattysez]

 
Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan  11s12 seconds ago
The Phillies are confident that if Red Sox don't get Jon Lester, Boston's desire for an ace will make a Cole Hamels trade very likely.
 

 
This kind of thinking is going to result in Amaro asking for the moon and the deal never getting done.

 

[67WasBest]

 
This kind of thinking is going to result in Amaro asking for the moon and the deal never getting done.

Eh, they've been talking this deal for months.  The Phillies were significantly represented at Boston, Pawtucket and Portland games. 
 
Having just nailed the hitter double play with Sandoval and Ramirez, could they be crazy enough to deliver a pitcher double play with Lester and Hamels?

 

[opes]

Would like to see the Sox offer Owens, Cecchini, Victorino, and 3mm of Vic's dollars to Phils for Hamels. Seems like that would make sense. Helps with the 2015 payroll, and when 2016 rolls around the Sox have room for all of Hamels money.

 just stop.

 

[joe dokes]

 
 
Having just nailed the hitter double play with Sandoval and Ramirez, could they be crazy enough to deliver a pitcher double play with Lester and Hamels?

 
Yes, I think they could be. Time to cash in some of their desirable prospects.  Amaro is really up against a wall here.  he *has* to sell off the assets to rebuild.  Given their minor league depth, the Sox can always add another of the non-untouchables to any deal, and Amaro is going to have a hard time saying no.

 

[smastroyin]

I just hope the Red Sox don't get themselves into a mindset where they say "We need an ace at any cost"  Outside of that, should be interesting to see how this all goes down.  

 

[Harry Hooper]

 
This kind of thinking is going to result in Amaro asking for the moon and the deal never getting done.

The dynamic would shift if Lester signs with the Sox.

 

[Corsi]

Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels is out there, waiting for a new home. He has a no-trade clause to block a move to Boston, and any pitcher would rather be in the National League, where there is no DH and weaker No. 8 hitters.
 
But according to a major league source, Hamels would waive that no-trade if the Red Sox picked up his $20 million option. That would make his deal worth five years and $110 million, a bargain for a pitcher of his caliber.
 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/11/24/red-sox-beef-lineup-still-plenty-pitching-options/3ZZqm9aujMxx1R1QU6sHfO/story.html?hootPostID=9a3e3a4137b5fcaa638a1e34553ccd4c

 

[MakMan44]

That's not a bargain, that's straight up market value for a pitcher of his caliber. 

 

[Quintanariffic]

That's not a bargain, that's straight up market value for a pitcher of his caliber. 

 
Maybe on a per year basis, but not number of years.  
 
Lester will get more years, and they are about as comparable as it gets.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

That's not a bargain, that's straight up market value for a pitcher of his caliber. 

 
I agree. I really hope they can sign Lester, get a (borderline) number 2 and tell Amaro to go pound sand.

 

[Drek717]

 
Maybe on a per year basis, but not number of years.  
 
Lester will get more years, and they are about as comparable as it gets.

By that definition of "value" what is James Shields going to look like when he signs then?  A steal?  Because he's comparable to Hamels, just a little older, and everyone is talking 3 year deal for him.
 
One extra year of contract commitment to an ace level pitcher isn't worth Owens or Betts or hell, damn near any prospect with real ML potential.

 

[Fred in Lynn]

 
Yes, I think they could be. Time to cash in some of their desirable prospects.  Amaro is really up against a wall here.  he *has* to sell off the assets to rebuild.  Given their minor league depth, the Sox can always add another of the non-untouchables to any deal, and Amaro is going to have a hard time saying no.

Amaro has been up against a wall for a few years. When a single domino falls, I'll start to pay attention. Sure, he seems like the only one who doesn't realize the show with this group is over, but he also seems to have the support of Montgomery and the rest of the ownership group. I completely fail to get it.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

By that definition of "value" what is James Shields going to look like when he signs then?  A steal?  Because he's comparable to Hamels, just a little older, and everyone is talking 3 year deal for him.

Ignoring the fact that Hamels' FIP is half a run lower, Shields is also two years older. I'll leave it to you why the league is expecting him to get a deal two years shorter.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Why does Amaro have to trade Hamels now?

 

[nattysez]

It's a party.
 

The Los Angeles #Dodgers now also in pursuit of #Phillies ace Cole Hamels, joining #Redsox and others.
 

https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/537017709481824256

 

[soxhop411]

“@BNightengale: The Los Angeles #Dodgers now also in pursuit of #Phillies ace Cole Hamels, joining #Redsox and others.”

 

[TomRicardo]

Why does Amaro have to trade Hamels now?

 
Because he is the only remaining asset of value whose value will probably never be higher.  Also his job is probably in danger.

 

[Fred in Lynn]

Why does Amaro have to trade Hamels now?

Maybe because he needs to make improvements and the parts that really need to go have no value, negative value, or refuse to agree to a trade. Applying logic to anything Ruben might do is a fool's errand. I'm soaking in it now.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

In terms of Hamels - Amaro has the upperhand right now because of this. He can hang on to Hamels for 4 years. Boston has to make a trade today to clear room on the 40 man. I hope Cherrington does not panic at the disco.

 

[joe dokes]

Why does Amaro have to trade Hamels now?

 
If you mean "now" as opposed to mid-season, I'd say his team is so bad that its not worth the possibility of a slightly larger haul from a pennant-desperate contender vs. taking the risk that there will be fewer qualified trade partners or that Hamels gets hurt. He really needs to strart rebuilding ASAP.  OTOH--Ownership seems to be in his corner, so they might accept an Amaro explanation like, "We can come close with Hamels, let's let it play out for a few months and *then* explore trading him.  The first part is incredibly unlikely, but the Phillies are not exactly a model of well-run-ness lately.

 

[swingin val]

In terms of Hamels - Amaro has the upperhand right now because of this. He can hang on to Hamels for 4 years. Boston has to make a trade today to clear room on the 40 man. I hope Cherrington does not panic at the disco.

There are plenty of ways to make space on the 40 or delay the Hanley signing. the eventual 40 man crunch does in no way give Amaro the upper hand

 

[rembrat]

In terms of Hamels - Amaro has the upperhand right now because of this. He can hang on to Hamels for 4 years. Boston has to make a trade today to clear room on the 40 man. I hope Cherrington does not panic at the disco.

 
Hanging on to Hamels for 4 years would be folly. Like others have said, Hamels' value will never be higher than it is right now because he is still an ace and after Max and Lester sign their deals, his 4/90 (5th is a club option that isn't likely to vest) will look like a bargain.

 

[joe dokes]

In terms of Hamels - Amaro has the upperhand right now because of this. He can hang on to Hamels for 4 years. Boston has to make a trade today to clear room on the 40 man. I hope Cherrington does not panic at the disco.

 
From L to R: Lavarnway, Britton, Weeks . . . . .
 

 

[EvilEmpire]

If you mean "now" as opposed to mid-season, I'd say his team is so bad that its not worth the possibility of a slightly larger haul from a pennant-desperate contender vs. taking the risk that there will be fewer qualified trade partners or that Hamels gets hurt. He really needs to strart rebuilding ASAP.  OTOH--Ownership seems to be in his corner, so they might accept an Amaro explanation like, "We can come close with Hamels, let's let it play out for a few months and *then* explore trading him.  The first part is incredibly unlikely, but the Phillies are not exactly a model of well-run-ness lately.

That is exactly what I mean.  Hamels is his only chip of real value.  If he can't get a big haul right now, he's at least better off waiting until the FA market clears up and hoping that Scherzer and Lester sign big deals that will make Hamels look like a bargain.   Amaro needs a clear "win" trade.  Owens isn't going to save his job or make Philly fans happy. 

 

[TomRicardo]

That is exactly what I mean.  Hamels is his only chip of real value.  If he can't get a big haul right now, he's at least better off waiting until the FA market clears up and hoping that Scherzer and Lester sign big deals that will make Hamels look like a bargain.   Amaro needs a clear "win" trade.  Owens isn't going to save his job or make Philly fans happy. 

 
Eh, Owens is arguably the best LHSP in AAA.  The Dodgers are not giving them Urias and there isn't a better pitching prospect on any of the teams looking Hamels.
 
Owens+ would be a big win for Amaro at this point.  That said I think Rodriquez and Johnson are close to Owens value.  The Red Sox have plenty of arms and should be looking to trade some this offseason

 

[joe dokes]

That is exactly what I mean.  Hamels is his only chip of real value.  If he can't get a big haul right now, he's at least better off waiting until the FA market clears up and hoping that Scherzer and Lester sign big deals that will make Hamels look like a bargain.   Amaro needs a clear "win" trade.  Owens isn't going to save his job or make Philly fans happy. 

 
Waiting for a "win" is the sure way to lose.  He needs a "good" trade.  If he tries to keep the fans happy, he will trade Hamels for a bunch of players that people have heard of. That will be a bad trade. If its what ownership wants, then I guess that's what he has to do.
 
As for waiting on Lester and Scherzer.. I think the fact that Lester and Scherzer will sign deals that dwarf Hamels's is a foregone conclusion that needs no confirmation.
 
He *has* to move Hamels at some point. There's a risk that the teams that sign Lester, Scherzer, Shields, and other FAs will no longer be in the market for Hamels (the Sox might be the exception). So if he waits, he might lose trade partners.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

 
Waiting for a "win" is the sure way to lose.  He needs a "good" trade.  If he tries to keep the fans happy, he will trade Hamels for a bunch of players that people have heard of. That will be a bad trade. If its what ownership wants, then I guess that's what he has to do.

 
Well, that's precisely the position he's in though. He needs a "win" trade. The guy is being vilified, his job is on the line, he's made a number of trades that are considered to have been disasters (Cliff Lee, Hunter Pence, etc.). He can't look like he's getting fleeced, or he's going to lose his job. I'm not saying that's the right way to go about it (it's not, as you suggested), but that's the reality of it. He'll either get a "win" trade, or he'll not do it. Which is why I'm not sure Hamels gets moved, frankly.

 

[CGSO]

The funny thing is, if we sign Lester, then I would not mind and might actually like if we did give up Owens for Hamels.  If we don't get Lester, then I don't want to give into that loser, Amaro Jr.  If we do surprise and get Lester though, then I sort of have the mentality of "Oh damn, we're really going for it this offseason!! Get them both!!" Not sure if that is a bad frame of mind to have.  This offseason has been really exciting. 
 
If we don't get Lester, then I'd prefer we do something like Latos and Shields as the 1 and 2, rather than give up our blue chip pitching prospect.  We wouldn't have an ace, but we'd have two good #2 starting pitchers.  I could see that team sneaking into the playoffs still, and then anything can happen with this lineup.
 
Goes without saying though, Lester is the #1 priority now.

 

[nighthob]

In terms of Hamels - Amaro has the upperhand right now because of this. He can hang on to Hamels for 4 years. Boston has to make a trade today to clear room on the 40 man. I hope Cherrington does not panic at the disco.

 
Or they could just release Lavarnaway, or deal spare parts of the 40 man roster for cash/PTBNL, etc.. There's zero need to make a Hamels deal.

 

[Corsi]

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick  9s10 seconds ago
Heard this today from a baseball source: "The #phillies 'love' Mookie Betts." Just sayin.' #redsox

 

[JohntheBaptist]

 
Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick  9s10 seconds ago
Heard this today from a baseball source: "The #phillies 'love' Mookie Betts." Just sayin.' #redsox
 

 
Great stuff, Jerry. Find me a team that doesn't.

 

[soxhop411]

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick  9s10 seconds ago
Heard this today from a baseball source: "The #phillies 'love' Mookie Betts." Just sayin.' #redsox

And I would love to date a playboy bunny, but we know that's not happening

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
Great stuff, Jerry. Find me a team that doesn't.

 
To top it off, he had to find a source to say that

 

[Fred in Lynn]

 
Great stuff, Jerry. Find me a team that doesn't.

Oh, I don't know if I'd be too hard on Crasnack. I totally envision Ruben making an overture in this fashion.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

Oh, I don't know if I'd be too hard on Crasnack. I totally envision Ruben making an overture in this fashion.

 
Of course he will. He's our best prospect, any team would "really love" him. It isn't news though. It's just common sense.

 

[CaskNFappin]

In other news, a source revealed up to 29 teams interested in acquiring Mike Trout if the right deal is on the table

 

[OnWisc]

 
As for waiting on Lester and Scherzer.. I think the fact that Lester and Scherzer will sign deals that dwarf Hamels's is a foregone conclusion that needs no confirmation.
 

What's your definition of dwarf, and why are you so certain this is going to be the case? I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see these guys sign deals that render Hamels below market, but not enough to warrant some of the prospect names that are being tossed around.

And I'm honestly asking, not being sarcastic. The caliber of prospect available to Philly depends on the value of the Hamels contract which depends on the size of the Lester/Scherzer deals.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick  9s10 seconds ago
Heard this today from a baseball source: "The #phillies 'love' Mookie Betts." Just sayin.' #redsox
 

 
The Red Sox love Clayton Kershaw too.

 

[E5 Yaz]

So are the Red Sox prepared to make "the perfect deal" this winter, now that they've stockpiled the depth of trade chips that could make it happen? Is someone else? We're about to find out. But don't bet on it. Eventually, other teams say, Amaro is going to have to accept reality and make a practical deal, not the perfect deal, whether he wants to or not.
"He's never going to make a deal where Phillies fans say, 'Hey, that's great, Ruben,'" said an exec of one team. "He needs to realize that ain't happening."

 
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11932327/is-right-philadelphia-phillies-trade-cole-hamels

 

[joe dokes]

What's your definition of dwarf, and why are you so certain this is going to be the case? I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see these guys sign deals that render Hamels below market, but not enough to warrant some of the prospect names that are being tossed around.

And I'm honestly asking, not being sarcastic. The caliber of prospect available to Philly depends on the value of the Hamels contract which depends on the size of the Lester/Scherzer deals.

 
My sense is that the deals the FAs get will likely be longer than the 4 years Hamels has left and probably bind their signing teams to anywhere from 35-50 million more dollars than the 90(?do i have that right?) that Hamels is due to make.  In terms of AAV, there may not be a huge difference.

 

[EvilEmpire]

What's your definition of dwarf, and why are you so certain this is going to be the case? I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see these guys sign deals that render Hamels below market, but not enough to warrant some of the prospect names that are being tossed around.

And I'm honestly asking, not being sarcastic. The caliber of prospect available to Philly depends on the value of the Hamels contract which depends on the size of the Lester/Scherzer deals.

I think it is important to keep in mind that Hamels doesn't have a blanket NTC. While he can demand that option year from Boston in order to agree to the trade, there are some teams out there that don't have to worry about the option. For them, the contract is even more of a bargain that it would be to Boston or some other team on Hamels' list.

Boston is getting all the attention right now because they have lots of prospects and the biggest need, but when all is said and done, I'm guessing Hamels goes to a team he can't block.

 

[LeoCarrillo]

 
Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick  9s10 seconds ago
Heard this today from a baseball source: "The #phillies 'love' Mookie Betts." Just sayin.' #redsox
 

 
I agree with everyone who's mocking this report.
 
That said, just as a thought exercise, if the Phillies are in love-love with Betts ... at what point would BC say yes?
 
Betts straight up for Hamels? I'd cry real tears but do it. Only because Rusney can be a leadoff CF.