Cross-posting from Reddit in case anyone is interested in discussing:
Messi's positioning as a true #10 is the biggest shift in Barca's offensive tactics this season. My question is whether this is Messi's choice to drift inside, Lucho's, or both? Most here seem to assume that Lucho has made this decision and that Lucho is now struggling to figure out how best to line up the rest of the squad. However, I believe that Lucho is merely trying to placate Messi and it is Lionel who has basically said 'I am playing in the middle, everyone else can adjust'. Likely, Messi is given freedom to roam wherever he wants and there are some tactical adjustments based on where he decides to pop up. As Messi has ceased operating on the wing almost entirely, the team has struggled with how to maintain the width on this vacated wing and defend accordingly. I am on the record as saying Messi's future lies in this CAM role, but both the team and Lionel need to make some adjustments to make this work more smoothly. If Messi is going to remain a CAM with minimal defensive responsibilities, the players tasked with providing width need to be ready to help defend the touchlines. This has already started with Neymar/Arda dropping in to help the MF as well as Rafinha/Denis on the other side. However, I think another adjustment that has not been made yet is what happens when Messi takes on defenders and loses the ball.
There are 2 critical components to defending this situation - 1) where is the ball lost (i.e. on the wing or in the middle), and 2) is the goal to press or recover. In the past, when Messi attacked from the wing and lost, it was relatively easier to recover shape and/or begin pressing up the field immediately. Lately and particularly on display Sunday, when Messi lost the ball he had 4-5 players in front of him (Suarez, Arda, Denis, Gomes, and/or Roberto) and the counter was coming from up the middle in a more dangerous starting position. This caused a lot of problems, especially when Messi lost the ball from deeper positions. All of this is to say that the team needs more vertical balance and a clear philosophy for when Messi loses the ball in the middle. Personally, I would start another holding MF along with Busi (Gomes would actually be a good fit here, but Rakitic could do this ably as well, Roberto is another option). Messi needs to adjust his game as well to be more conservative in possession and particular with his dribbles. To describe the formation, it would go something like:
4-2-2-1-1
Alba-Pique-Masche-Roberto
Busi-Gomes
Denis-Ney
Messi
Suarez
Here, Denis and Ney would be tasked with helping to win the MF, but as they push wide on attack at least Busi and Gomes will be able to protect Barca when Messi loses the ball in the middle. Frankly though, I think this setup is a poor use of the squad's skills (namely Roberto and the RB situation) and Lucho is on the right track putting 3 at the back. With 3 at the back, there are more possibilities and the XI takes on a more natural fit IMO:
3-2-3-1-1
Masche-Pique-Umtiti
Busi-Gomes/Rak/Roberto
Rafinha/Arda-Denis/Iniesta-Ney
Messi
Suarez
This lineup leaves Alba out, which is unfortunate because I love Alba as a LB, but in Barca's current iteration, using 3 at the back (and necessarily protecting them with two holding MF rather than one) is doable and allows for a fluid attacking formation around Messi. Denis/Iniesta will help Messi establish possession in the center of the pitch and move the ball wide to Rafinha/Arda and Ney, Busi and his DMF partner will always be available to relieve pressure, and Suarez is the point of the spear and can combine with Messi, Ney, Denis/Iniesta through the middle, and on the wings with Ney and Arda/Rafinha.
TL;DR - Messi's positioning as a CAM is likely here to stay. In order to provide width on offense and simultaneously protect Barca up the middle on defense (particularly after Messi turnovers in the middle), another holding MF should be added to the formation. With Barca's current squad, this can be done with 3 at the back.