Possible Brady Extension & Its Impact on Jimmy G

[Deathofthebambino]

Heard it on the radio, so no link, but there are rumors out of Foxboro that the annual Brady contract re-structuring is in the works (usually happens right around this time of year), and that the thought is the next restructure will be done in such a way as to free up enough cash to pay Jimmy next year (either through the tag, or a contract).

Of course, there is absolutely no talk about this being Brady's last year, nor does anyone seem to be planning for that situation.

 

[axx]

I have a real hard time believing that Brady would do the restructure with Jimmy still here.

 

[Stitch01]

Heard it on the radio, so no link, but there are rumors out of Foxboro that the annual Brady contract re-structuring is in the works (usually happens right around this time of year), and that the thought is the next restructure will be done in such a way as to free up enough cash to pay Jimmy next year (either through the tag, or a contract).

Of course, there is absolutely no talk about this being Brady's last year, nor does anyone seem to be planning for that situation.

This doesn't make a lot of sense given Brady's existing contract. The only way to even possibly do it would be to add more years which sort of defeats the purpose of tagging JG

 

[Red Averages]

Don't they have the same agent?

 

[Harry Hooper]

That's a good point; I can't remember a single example of this.

I haven't run the numbers, but it seems like BB & Co. do more trades outside of draft week than typical NFL FOs.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I have a real hard time believing that Brady would do the restructure with Jimmy still here.

Do you have a hard time believing it if the point is to make it easier, cap-wise, to franchise Jimmy to trade him?

 

[axx]

Do you have a hard time believing it if the point is to make it easier, cap-wise, to franchise Jimmy to trade him?

Yep. It's in Brady's best interest to do so, and as mentioned he has the same agent as Jimmy.

 

[Stitch01]

I don't mean it doesn't make a lot of sense as in "its not good strategy" to restructure Brady. I mean it as how exactly can they free up cap space to keep JimmyG by restructuring Brady today?

The "usual" way this has worked is base salary is converted into bonus and spread over the life of the contract and/or an extension stretches out the cap hit from the previous bonus. Brady is already only making a million base this year. His deal only runs through '19

They could turn six million of his 18 salary into a bonus and save 7 million but what does that really do? Brady would then have a 29 million cap hit in 2019 or 13.5 million of dead money in 2019. I guess they could do this to help facilitate a tag and trade, but no need to do that today and tag and trade is probably a "take the best offer before free agency starts" sort of situation.

Extending Brady to make it easier to JimmyG around seems sort of counterintuitive, especially given they have to entice Jimmy to stay here as a free agent and Jimmy has talked about wanting to play sooner rather than later. I guess they could do it as a pure fake year in 2020 if Brady is amenable, but they'd have to massage getting Jimmy to sign and stay on as a backup for up to two years and convince Brady to accept handing over the reins after '19.

Brady could ultimately reduce his salary outright, but he's already making a relatively small amount of cash because his contract was sort of bonus loaded and this would not really be in line with other "annual" Brady restructures which were win/win. Plus the team already has the option to reduce Brady's salary to zero in 2018.

Finally, seems like the prudent thing to do would be to see how Brady's age 40 season plays out before attempting any sort of restructure.

I also think that if plan A is Brady for a year or two and then JimmyG in '19 and beyond that the Pats would be better off signing JimmyG to an "above market" long term extension now rather than trying to go the franchise in '18 and extend route.

Gun to head I still think Brady here in 2018 and JimmyG elsewhere in '18 is the most likely outcome (although JB trade is a data point against this opinion) maybe with a tag and trade before free agency ending for Jimmy.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

Whether or not they keep JG, and what the future plan is, there's not really any positive at this point to pushing cap hits into the future for a 40 year old quarterback. I don't think any restructure that leaves the possibility of significant dead money in future years is a good idea.

 

[InstaFace]

I have a real hard time believing that Brady would do the restructure with Jimmy still here.

After a season in which the backup QB's role and quality was instrumental in the success of his team? For a team-first guy like Brady, a man who accepts that the day he's not better than his backup, he's gone, but who also has a monomaniacal focus on postponing that day as long as possible? I don't have a hard time believing that at all.

He doesn't want his own compensation to be an insult to him, but beyond that he'll do whatever helps the team - and not just say that, like many QBs who then insist on being paid market rate, but actually follow through on it. The team has shown him loyalty, surely, but they're not going to coddle him, and send away the best backup they've had since Brady himself, just for the sake of Brady's ego. Nor would Tom ever ask for that. I think you misunderstand Tom Brady considerably.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

A Brady restructure that extends his deal seems pretty unlikely to me. He is already signed through his age 42 season, an age at which it is completely unprecedented for a QB to play at a high level in the NFL.

Everything the team has done for the last 12 months is consistent with the notion that they want to keep JG - turning down (reportedly) huge offers, trading Brissett, keeping a substantial level of rollover (although less now that preseason moves have shaken out).

We'll see how it turns out. But it would certainly be pretty foolish to have passed up those huge offers for JG this offseason to not only franchise/trade him for far less in the 2018 offseason but also to be nearly forced to use a high draft pick on a QB now that they've traded Brissett. If BB has made one thing clear, its that he values the backup QB position enough to invest real resources and wants to be grooming a potential successor at all times. The odds of BB letting JG go in 2018 and then just signing Matt Moore or whoever to backup a 41-year-old Brady are pretty much zero. So if they're franchise/trading JG, they're very likely going to pick a QB with their first or second round pick, more than offsetting whatever pick they would get back for JG. It would be a pretty disastrous sequence of decisions across the 2017-18 offseasons if they end up going that route.

 

[BroodsSexton]

Another thing to consider is that maybe JG actually wants a shot to be TB II? He doesn't have the supermodel wife to rely on for the TriBeCa loft in the offseason, but he may recognize that there are huge advantages to being the QB for this organization rather than another.

 

[joe dokes]

Another thing to consider is that maybe JG actually wants a shot to be TB II? He doesn't have the supermodel wife to rely on for the TriBeCa loft in the offseason, but he may recognize that there are huge advantages to being the QB for this organization rather than another.

No one talks about this. The narrative is that he wants so badly just to be a starter that he'd be happy to go to [name your shitshow here], over taking lesser -- but still lots of -- millions to remain in NE until Brady shuffles off the football coil. This is based partly on his anodyne comments about starting, but also, IMO, because the narrative makers know that the hot-take division will turn their assaultive hot-take machine on a guy who doesnt show enough "fire in the belly" about wanting to be a starter. Today. Anywhere. The hot take premise is baked into the "Jimmy is despaerate to play more" premise.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

I'm thoroughly enjoying the discussion and splitting it out on its own.

 

[Stitch01]

A Brady restructure that extends his deal seems pretty unlikely to me. He is already signed through his age 42 season, an age at which it is completely unprecedented for a QB to play at a high level in the NFL.

Everything the team has done for the last 12 months is consistent with the notion that they want to keep JG - turning down (reportedly) huge offers, trading Brissett, keeping a substantial level of rollover (although less now that preseason moves have shaken out).

We'll see how it turns out. But it would certainly be pretty foolish to have passed up those huge offers for JG this offseason to not only franchise/trade him for far less in the 2018 offseason but also to be nearly forced to use a high draft pick on a QB now that they've traded Brissett. If BB has made one thing clear, its that he values the backup QB position enough to invest real resources and wants to be grooming a potential successor at all times. The odds of BB letting JG go in 2018 and then just signing Matt Moore or whoever to backup a 41-year-old Brady are pretty much zero. So if they're franchise/trading JG, they're very likely going to pick a QB with their first or second round pick, more than offsetting whatever pick they would get back for JG. It would be a pretty disastrous sequence of decisions across the 2017-18 offseasons if they end up going that route.

I agree there's a fair bit of evidence they want to keep JimmyG (although not the rollover part, I would wager that when 2018 rolls around they'll be rolling the same or less space than they did this year) .

I dont fully agree with the last paragraph.

We dont really know what these offers for Jimmy G were this offseason (as you hint at). There's a lot of smoke that the Browns offered 12, but we don't really know that offer was on the table. If the offer was a 2nd round pick or a future 1st for Jimmy G, would that change the equation?

I think there is a better than zero chance they draft a successor and sign a caretaker backup for next year. Not really the Pats MO historically, and I wouldnt call it the most likely solution, but might end up being the best solution here and a high pick next year in whats supposed to be a strong QB class might end up fitting better with the timeline of Brady's retirement than JimmyG does while paying for a short-term vet backup.

Finally, JimmyG functions as a cheap against the cap insurance policy against Brady falling off a cliff at age 40, provides a backup solution for a team with title hopes in 2017, and puts off the longer-term decision on the QB position by a year. Is the opportunity cost of the difference between 12 and and a comp pick/tag and trade comp too much to pay for that? Maybe, but Id have a hard time calling it a "disastrous sequence of decisions" if Brady plays well and stays healthy this year and JimmyG is traded for a 55th pick which is then used on a QB that they like.

EDIT: Mods, wrote this as the topic was being split out, please move to the other thread. Thanks.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

EDIT: Mods, wrote this as the topic was being split out, please move to the other thread. Thanks.

Done and done. Thanks, Stitch!

 

[Stitch01]

No one talks about this. The narrative is that he wants so badly just to be a starter that he'd be happy to go to [name your shitshow here], over taking lesser -- but still lots of -- millions to remain in NE until Brady shuffles off the football coil. This is based partly on his anodyne comments about starting, but also, IMO, because the narrative makers know that the hot-take division will turn their assaultive hot-take machine on a guy who doesnt show enough "fire in the belly" about wanting to be a starter. Today. Anywhere. The hot take premise is baked into the "Jimmy is despaerate to play more" premise.

We cant know the answer to this, but JG turns 26 this year. Brady says he wants to play until he's 45 (Im skeptical of course, but certainly doesnt seem to be looking to retire in the near future). Yeah, there are a lot of shitshow situations out there, but JG will have a pretty large say in where he goes as an unrestricted FA. Also, BB is 65. His "I wont be coaching in my 70s" statement from 8 years ago isnt gospel or anything, but there's a shelf life there as well. So the NE situation in five years may not be what the NE situation is today and its not a lock that JG is the guy when Brady retires, particularly if there is a different coach in place. Football players have a pretty strong tendency to want to play football and also have a pretty strong tendency to want to be paid more money.

So we certainly can't know whether JG would be willing to sit on the bench in NE for less money until he is 28-30 for the chance to be the starting QB for the Patriots under (hopefully) BB in 2019 or whatever, but it seems like a pretty reasonable default assumption that JG is going to prefer strongly to go to a team who will pay him/give him a chance to start immediately when he hits UFA in either '18 or '19.

 

[pappymojo]

Since the Pats can franchise JG, it makes sense to extend him now as a way to split the franchise tag hit over two years, but they can't pay JG more than Brady to be Brady's backup.

So could the Brady extension simply bump Brady up so he is paid more as the staring QB while simultaneously extending JG to reduce his cap hit next year?

 

[dcmissle]

"I almost had an NFL career. Things seemed set with Tom and Bill, but one thing led to another, and Tom played longer than expected, then Bill retired and new coach brought in a new guy, and everyone kind of forgot about me. Didn't play at all for a couple years and, you know, I wasn't Steve Young."

No, that's not likely happening. If I'm JG, I give them no further incentive to maintain the status quo. Franchise or transition tag me.

 

[Stitch01]

Since the Pats can franchise JG, it makes sense to extend him now as a way to split the franchise tag hit over two years, but they can't pay JG more than Brady to be Brady's backup.

So could the Brady extension simply bump Brady up so he is paid more as the staring QB while simultaneously extending JG to reduce his cap hit next year?

Is there any benefit to doing that given they can just carry over unused cap space from this year into next year? What's the benefit of using $10MM of cap space (to make up a round number) on JG this year as opposed to just staying $10MM under the cap, rolling it over, and then tagging him next year if the idea is just to pay the franchise tag over two seasons?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I agree there's a fair bit of evidence they want to keep JimmyG (although not the rollover part, I would wager that when 2018 rolls around they'll be rolling the same or less space than they did this year) .

I dont fully agree with the last paragraph.

We dont really know what these offers for Jimmy G were this offseason (as you hint at). There's a lot of smoke that the Browns offered 12, but we don't really know that offer was on the table. If the offer was a 2nd round pick or a future 1st for Jimmy G, would that change the equation?

I think there is a better than zero chance they draft a successor and sign a caretaker backup for next year. Not really the Pats MO historically, and I wouldnt call it the most likely solution, but might end up being the best solution here and a high pick next year in whats supposed to be a strong QB class might end up fitting better with the timeline of Brady's retirement than JimmyG does while paying for a short-term vet backup.

Finally, JimmyG functions as a cheap against the cap insurance policy against Brady falling off a cliff at age 40, provides a backup solution for a team with title hopes in 2017, and puts off the longer-term decision on the QB position by a year. Is the opportunity cost of the difference between 12 and and a comp pick/tag and trade comp too much to pay for that? Maybe, but Id have a hard time calling it a "disastrous sequence of decisions" if Brady plays well and stays healthy this year and JimmyG is traded for a 55th pick which is then used on a QB that they like.

EDIT: Mods, wrote this as the topic was being split out, please move to the other thread. Thanks.

I agree that our lack of clear knowledge about what offers the Pats had on the table for JG last spring, and what they would have been truly willing to accept, is a big limiting factor in evaluating the situation. But I tend to believe they likely had some big offers on the table or at least real indications that those offers could be elicited if they showed themselves truly willing to talk about a deal, particularly given how desperate teams turned out to be in the draft when moving up for QBs like Trubitsky, Mahomes and Watson (all of whom had big question marks).

I can definitely see them drafting a successor and signing a caretaker, I just can't see them only signing a veteran or on grooming a successor who was a late round pick or UDFA. With Brissett gone, if they let JG go then they're using substantial draft capital on the successor. Next year is supposed to be a good QB draft at the top but what that means for guys available in the late 2nd - which could be the sixth or seventh QB taken in the draft - is pretty much unknown. Drafting a QB is generally a total crapshoot at that point.

If they weren't all that impressed with Brissett's progress last year, then I think that should have really increased the rationale for either trading JG last year - and in so doing acquiring the draft capital to help them find the real successor - or committing to keeping JG into 2018 and beyond. The worst possible strategy involves bailing on Brissett and Garoppolo without getting high levels of draft capital in return that could really help them find a new QB.

 

[edmunddantes]

Would not be shocked to see them spend a 2nd rounder or 3rd rounder on a QB again this upcoming draft.

 

[bakahump]

Certainly. They Need a backup to groom one way or another. And its getting to the point where we need someone who is probably gonna need to be drafted higher. IOW we need someone who can compete for the job in 2, 3 or 4 years as opposed to a glorified clipboard holder we pretty much have been used to needing.

I dont think there is a surer bet in all the drafts BB has presided over then them needing to spend (high) capitol on a QB next year.

 

[dcmissle]

I agree that our lack of clear knowledge about what offers the Pats had on the table for JG last spring, and what they would have been truly willing to accept, is a big limiting factor in evaluating the situation. But I tend to believe they likely had some big offers on the table or at least real indications that those offers could be elicited if they showed themselves truly willing to talk about a deal, particularly given how desperate teams turned out to be in the draft when moving up for QBs like Trubitsky, Mahomes and Watson (all of whom had big question marks).

I can definitely see them drafting a successor and signing a caretaker, I just can't see them only signing a veteran or on grooming a successor who was a late round pick or UDFA. With Brissett gone, if they let JG go then they're using substantial draft capital on the successor. Next year is supposed to be a good QB draft at the top but what that means for guys available in the late 2nd - which could be the sixth or seventh QB taken in the draft - is pretty much unknown. Drafting a QB is generally a total crapshoot at that point.

If they weren't all that impressed with Brissett's progress last year, then I think that should have really increased the rationale for either trading JG last year - and in so doing acquiring the draft capital to help them find the real successor - or committing to keeping JG into 2018 and beyond. The worst possible strategy involves bailing on Brissett and Garoppolo without getting high levels of draft capital in return that could really help them find a new QB.

Couple thoughts.

Their ability to evaluate fully JB last season, his rookie season, was impaired by his stint on the DL from early Oct thru late Dec.

Notwithstanding that, what do we know about offers for JG? Very little and very sketchy. But we do know a couple of things. Ed Werder reported fairly early on that JG was untouchable -- and everybody laughed. Adam Schefter followed in Werder's footsteps -- and although fewer people laughed, the wise guys still knew better.

We know a mature and healthy market never developed -- and we know this not because the NEP leaked (they are unusually disciplined) but because everybody else does. In particular, Mary Cabot in Cleveland was busy all offseason reporting leaks.

I can see suitors taking the NEP at their word and not wasting time. Or, the monsta' offers were not forthcoming because teams undervalued JG, overvalued their beloved draft picks, or both.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Couple thoughts.

Their ability to evaluate fully JB last season, his rookie season, was impaired by his stint on the DL from early Oct thru late Dec.

Notwithstanding that, what do we know about offers for JG? Very little and very sketchy. But we do know a couple of things. Ed Werder reported fairly early on that JG was untouchable -- and everybody laughed. Adam Schefter followed in Werder's footsteps -- and although fewer people laughed, the wise guys still knew better.

We know a mature and healthy market never developed -- and we know this not because the NEP leaked (they are unusually disciplined) but because everybody else does. In particular, Mary Cabot in Cleveland was busy all offseason reporting leaks.

I can see suitors taking the NEP at their word and not wasting time. Or, the monsta' offers were not forthcoming because teams undervalued JG, overvalued their beloved draft picks, or both.

Good post. There is a lot we just don't know about the JG situation last spring. For me, Schefter's report carries a lot of weight - he isn't often wrong when he states things so emphatically, and his sources are usually legitimate. And if the team really made JG virtually untouchable (or wanted such a king's ransom that they shut down trade conversations preemptively), then cut bait on Brissett a few months later, its hard to square all that activity with an intent to just let JG walk or franchise/trade him for relative peanuts next March.

 

[axx]

I think you misunderstand Tom Brady considerably.

Doing the Franchise&Trade is going to be hard enough... having your backup make $25-$26M aint happening. If Brady wants to be the Patriots QB past this year he needs Jimmy gone.

 

[5dice]

For me, Schefter's report carries a lot of weight - he isn't often wrong when he states things so emphatically, and his sources are usually legitimate.

His Patriots source has been often rumored to be Jonathan Kraft.

 

[dcmissle]

Doing the Franchise&Trade is going to be hard enough... having your backup make $25-$26M aint happening. If Brady wants to be the Patriots QB past this year he needs Jimmy gone.

Well that's not happening before next offseason, cuz they really do need a backup.

Unless you can flip him for Hoyer -- but the 49ers have a game in 5 days, like Hoyer and think they may have something in CJ Beathard. And if the Pats wanted Jimmy gone, he'd be gone for more upside than Hoyer.

Thinking about it further, Brady to the 49ers after this season is probably more likely than any deals during this season. With Hoyer returning to NE. Make you feel better?

 

[soxfan121]

Heard it on the radio, so no link, but there are rumors out of Foxboro that the annual Brady contract re-structuring is in the works (usually happens right around this time of year), and that the thought is the next restructure will be done in such a way as to free up enough cash to pay Jimmy next year (either through the tag, or a contract).

Of course, there is absolutely no talk about this being Brady's last year, nor does anyone seem to be planning for that situation.

In 2010, it happened at about this time (9/11/10, in fact), but in 2013 and 2016, the contract restructure was announced in late February.

Don't they have the same agent?

Yes, Don Yee. (Also, Edelman's agent.)

Since the Pats can franchise JG, it makes sense to extend him now as a way to split the franchise tag hit over two years, but they can't pay JG more than Brady to be Brady's backup.

So could the Brady extension simply bump Brady up so he is paid more as the staring QB while simultaneously extending JG to reduce his cap hit next year?

This scans, and they have the cap room to do it. And they've been spending cash this offseason because they sort of have to, so this would continue the trend, reward a deserving veteran, and resolve a media fixation point.

 

[InstaFace]

Doing the Franchise&Trade is going to be hard enough... having your backup make $25-$26M aint happening. If Brady wants to be the Patriots QB past this year he needs Jimmy gone.

The Patriots have a lot of options to keep Garoppolo if they want to.

But the bolded is clearly ludicrous. If Brady is the best QB on the roster, he will remain the Patriots' starting QB. Unless you think Garoppolo's continued presence would lead to him inevitably surpassing Brady, which also seems unlikely, there is just no forcing function that makes your conclusion (the bolded) the consequence of its antecedent.

What Bill does to build the roster or manage his talent is Bill's job. Tom's job and view of the world is simple: stay in great shape, avoid injury, and continue preparing such that you're the best QB you can be. The rest he can't control. All this cloak-and-dagger stuff just isn't the Tom Brady we've come to know over the past 17+ years.

 

[pappymojo]

Is there any benefit to doing that given they can just carry over unused cap space from this year into next year? What's the benefit of using $10MM of cap space (to make up a round number) on JG this year as opposed to just staying $10MM under the cap, rolling it over, and then tagging him next year if the idea is just to pay the franchise tag over two seasons?

I forgot about rolling over cap space. One benefit to extending JG now is that it allows the team to use the franchise tag on another player (Butler?). Plus it may build goodwill with JG for future negotiations.

 

[Stitch01]

Good point on keeping the tag available.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Well that's not happening before next offseason, cuz they really do need a backup.

Unless you can flip him for Hoyer -- but the 49ers have a game in 5 days, like Hoyer and think they may have something in CJ Beathard. And if the Pats wanted Jimmy gone, he'd be gone for more upside than Hoyer.

Thinking about it further, Brady to the 49ers after this season is probably more likely than any deals during this season. With Hoyer returning to NE. Make you feel better?

Haven't you been beating the "Cousins to 49ers" drum for quite a while now?

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Well that's not happening before next offseason, cuz they really do need a backup.

Unless you can flip him for Hoyer -- but the 49ers have a game in 5 days, like Hoyer and think they may have something in CJ Beathard. And if the Pats wanted Jimmy gone, he'd be gone for more upside than Hoyer.

Thinking about it further, Brady to the 49ers after this season is probably more likely than any deals during this season. With Hoyer returning to NE. Make you feel better?

I don't understand why anyone thinks that Brady would go to the 49ers unless he's traded there. They're a terrible organization at this point, if he's going to go somewhere under his own free will he's not going to the loser 49ers to spend the last few years, despite him growing up there. I'd put them in the bottom 10 teams he'd go to if BB doesn't extend him.

 

[dcmissle]

Haven't you been beating the "Cousins to 49ers" drum for quite a while now?

Yes, but things evolve. They drafted Beathard. I've seen things here and there that they like him. Hoyer is clearly a placeholder. If Beathard develops -- and again, these are things they are seeing in practice, in meetings and so forth (see JB) -- and Hoyer plays decently, maybe they stand pat. Keep their trade capital if the Redskins transition or franchise Cousins, and not lay out the money necessary to get Cousins.

I don't really expect Tom in SF unless (I) the Pats decide to move on and (II) the 49ers develop more quickly than anyone expects. In that event, it could be a go-home-feel-good story with the parents living nearby. This strikes me as quite unlikely -- but more likely that the Pats getting out of the JG business this season, as the poster implied.

 

[AB in DC]

I don't understand why anyone thinks that Brady would go to the 49ers unless he's traded there.

When your mother has cancer, your priorities might change a little bit. (Trust me on this.)