Potential Bright Spots in Fenway Tire Fire

[TomRicardo]

Long term bright spots - Triston Casas and Kutter Crawford

Triston Casas - Over the season especially in the second half, Triston became a top end hitter. Looking forward Triston looks like he can become a legitimate elite bat. He walks at a tremendous rate and has great contract skills. Hopefully he can improve his fielding a bit.

Kutter Crawford - With the addition of slider/sweeper, Cutter has become a legitimate MLB pitcher. He still is having trouble like most of the rotation in getting through a lineup a third time. I believe some of this has to do with pitch calling from Wong and McGuire (which much like their framing is poor). If Kutter can rely on using his slide for strikes keeping hitters from sitting on his four seamer or cutter in count, Kutter could make the next step and look like a mid to top of the rotation starter.

Medium Term / possible starters

Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela

Jarren Duran - Somehow the sum of his parts do not equal the total. Duran has elite speed, hit the ball pretty hard, and has a good arm. Yet Jarren isn't a particularly good defender nor does he have a high slugging percentage. Tons of tools but is an average MLB starter / 4th OF.

Wilyer Abreu - Sort of the opposite of Duran. Outside of a very strong arm, Abreu overperformed his tools last season. Probably profiles to be LHH bench OF however could play his way to being a starter

Ceddanne Rafaela - Useful RHH bat with down the middle ability in both IF/OF. Probably more of a utility player but a ton of value being able to cover different positions.

 

[jbupstate]

Devers - He’s pretty good and young

Yoshida - First half 2023 was great fun to watch

Story / Grissom - Nice MI defense and some pop

 

[NDame616]

This dumpster fire of an offseason has made me want them to irrationally bring up players stupid early so I can enjoy "the next wave" of Red Sox.

Let's see Teel and Anthony in the show.

 

[jbupstate]

Bello - Decent young pitcher.

 

[kazuneko]

Devers - He’s pretty good and young

Yoshida - First half 2023 was great fun to watch

Story / Grissom - Nice MI defense and some pop

I think defense is still a big question with Grissom, though I’m not sure if you meant Story represents “nice MI defense” and Grissom has “some pop”..

 

[Fishy1]

RE: Wilyer. Not to be a stan, but it's worth noting that Wilyer posted a better BB rate in AAA (admittedly at an older age) than Casas and a better wrc+ at AAA. His BB rate was better, and his K rate was slightly lower than Casas too. Now, some of that might have been the automatic umps, but he hasn't posted a BB rate in the minors below 15% since 2021. He doesn't have Casas's pedigree but the peripherals at the upper levels are very similar.

My point is, I think people should be a lot more excited by Wilyer than they are. Yeah, his BABIP grossly inflated his batting average in the majors, but he also posted a ludicrous HH%, and even if he dropped 100 points of BABIP you'd still probably have a guy with an OBP between .330-.340 with potential for more given his BB rate in the minors. Fangraphs and the like are projecting him for 14 home runs and a slugging percentage around .410-.420, which I think underrates his power: he hit 22 homers in just 363 PA in AAA this year.

My point is this: they have very, very similar bats. Lots of whiffs, lots of walks, and plenty of pop. He didn't really get a chance to hit lefties in the bigs but I'm bullish on that front too, given all the adjustments he's made as a hitter.

Also very excited to see what Grissom can do with a full season of hitting. He's a guy who could lead the league in batting average a few times.

 

[jbupstate]

I think defense is still a big question with Grissom, though I’m not sure if you meant Story represents “nice MI defense” and Grissom has “some pop”..

I think Grissom, knowing that the job is his, settles in and provides adequate defense. Story will make Devers, Grissom and Casas better through osmosis.

I believe Grissom is going to outhit the average MLB 2B. I’m very excited by his addition to the team.

 

[jbupstate]

I also believe O’Neil finds health and Fenway positively influences hit overall numbers.

 

[jbupstate]

Respectfully ask…

What is considered a tire fire?

I think finishing with under 75 wins. But that would at least lead to a sell off and rapid promotions from minors.

 

[Auger34]

Long term bright spots - Triston Casas and Kutter Crawford

Triston Casas - Over the season especially in the second half, Triston became a top end hitter. Looking forward Triston looks like he can become a legitimate elite bat. He walks at a tremendous rate and has great contract skills. Hopefully he can improve his fielding a bit.

Kutter Crawford - With the addition of slider/sweeper, Cutter has become a legitimate MLB pitcher. He still is having trouble like most of the rotation in getting through a lineup a third time. I believe some of this has to do with pitch calling from Wong and McGuire (which much like their framing is poor). If Kutter can rely on using his slide for strikes keeping hitters from sitting on his four seamer or cutter in count, Kutter could make the next step and look like a mid to top of the rotation starter.

Medium Term / possible starters

Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela

Jarren Duran - Somehow the sum of his parts do not equal the total. Duran has elite speed, hit the ball pretty hard, and has a good arm. Yet Jarren isn't a particularly good defender nor does he have a high slugging percentage. Tons of tools but is an average MLB starter / 4th OF.

Wilyer Abreu - Sort of the opposite of Duran. Outside of a very strong arm, Abreu overperformed his tools last season. Probably profiles to be LHH bench OF however could play his way to being a starter

Ceddanne Rafaela - Useful RHH bat with down the middle ability in both IF/OF. Probably more of a utility player but a ton of value being able to cover different positions.

Should add Bryan Bello to the long term bright spots. Maybe even Raffy Devers (although I think you are only listing players not as proven as Raffy)
I think Vaughn Grissom is probably in his own tier between medium term and long term bright spot

 

[TomRicardo]

This dumpster fire of an offseason has made me want them to irrationally bring up players stupid early so I can enjoy "the next wave" of Red Sox.

Let's see Teel and Anthony in the show.

I don't have any numbers surrounding it but I have read Teel is an especially good pitch caller / game manager. The Red Sox really need to find a way to get pitchers through the rotation through the third time. Even Bello struggled with this.

Edit - I didn't include Devers. Devers is an All Star / Silver Slugger Caliber Bat. Of course he is a bright spot but we know what we are getting, unless there is an injury. I would say I think Kutter is more exciting than Bello. Kutter came somewhere out of no where with the Slider/Sweeper and became a realistic MLB starter. Bello is probably the better player however.

 

[bringbackburks]

Nice to see that almost every member of the starting lineup (sorry Wong/McGuire), a couple bench spots and two fifths of the starting rotation have been listed as bright spots. Makes me wonder how the team would be collectively viewed with a top-end starting pitcher or two added to the mix...

 

[Jimbodandy]

Bello and Casas, until more kids get promoted. Love Raffy, but he is what he is at this point. Everything else is a big pile of meh.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

• Looking forward to Casas playing well for the entire season.
• I want to find out if Bello has a next gear, so that he can turn into a top-of-the-rotation starter.
• I'm very intrigued by Grissom and have read a lot of terrific things about him.
• I'm interested in Yoshida and whether last year's cliff dive was a mirage or who he is. I'm hoping for the former, obviously.
• Is Andrew Bailey this generation's Leo Mazzone or Ray Miller?

 

[nvalvo]

I think defense is still a big question with Grissom, though I’m not sure if you meant Story represents “nice MI defense” and Grissom has “some pop”..

Well, Story has great defense and considerable pop, but we really need to see him bounce back with his contact skills. (If he does, he’s an All Star–level player, as he was in 2018 and 2019 when his K% was 25; if he doesn’t, he’s basically Javy Baez.)

Grissom has great contact ability, and the bull case for him is that he’ll grow into more SLG in his mid 20s as he gets stronger. The AL East ballparks should help, too.

 

[TomRicardo]

Bello and Casas, until more kids get promoted. Love Raffy, but he is what he is at this point. Everything else is a big pile of meh.

I would say it is Devers, Martin, and Casas and a big pile of meh. Bello ended up meh

Grissom is the top candidate not to be meh, the assumption being he should be good if there is a season he isn't being yanked around.

Both Bello and Crawford need to be able to pitch more innings which should naturally happen. Bello fell off at the end. Natural progression for both probably put them as the middle of the rotation arms which would be good.

Does Story have another season of health in him? Probably not.

Can Giolito get his groove back? Maybe?

Is one or two of the 7 4th OF we have on this team going to emerge a solid starter? You would hope.

Is one of the four to five back end guys going emerge to be a solid starter? Money would be on Pivetta.

Are we actually going to get MLB caliber starting catcher? Most likely no not for another year or two.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

For me, I actually enjoy watching young players come up and see what you have. The teams that frustrate me are the ones that middle along around .500 with a bunch of one year, stop gap veterans. You're not going to win anything, you're not building toward anything, you're not learning anything about the future and (at least in 2022 and 2023) you're not confident enough to sell those players. It's a wasted year.

As such -

Really looking forward to the top 4 in the line up (at least in my line up) of Duran, Grissom, Devers and Casas. I think you have some three real building blocks there toward the next great Red Sox team. Duran, who knows. But I'm interested to see.

Story and Yoshida are "fine". I'm happy enough with them on the team. If given the choice to have someone "Punto trade" them and take both deals in their entirety, I'd prefer that, but I wouldn't want to eat half of their salaries to have them play elsewhere either as they're both too good for that, hope that makes sense.

I'd like to see Rafaela up here full time. I don't think AAA pitchers can force him to make adjustments, I think those will only come facing MLB pitching.

Everyone and everything else on the offense is kind of "meh" in my opinion. You might "hit", but more likely you're talking about bench / depth pieces in my opinion.


Rotation -
Seeing if Bello can make the next step. I'm also pretty confident that between Houck and Crawford, Bailey et al will be able to make one of them into a SP 3/4 as opposed to an SP5. I'm interested to see which one that is.

Giolito - I think Bailey is going to get him back to something more resembling what he was in 2021, and hopefully Breslow gets something really good for him at the deadline.


What I'm most excited to see is what Breslow can do selling in July.

 

[HfxBob]

For me, I actually enjoy watching young players come up and see what you have. The teams that frustrate me are the ones that middle along around .500 with a bunch of one year, stop gap veterans. You're not going to win anything, you're not building toward anything, you're not learning anything about the future and (at least in 2022 and 2023) you're not confident enough to sell those players. It's a wasted year.

As such -

Really looking forward to the top 4 in the line up (at least in my line up) of Duran, Grissom, Devers and Casas. I think you have some three real building blocks there toward the next great Red Sox team. Duran, who knows. But I'm interested to see.

Story and Yoshida are "fine". I'm happy enough with them on the team. If given the choice to have someone "Punto trade" them and take both deals in their entirety, I'd prefer that, but I wouldn't want to eat half of their salaries to have them play elsewhere either as they're both too good for that, hope that makes sense.

I'd like to see Rafaela up here full time. I don't think AAA pitchers can force him to make adjustments, I think those will only come facing MLB pitching.

Everyone and everything else on the offense is kind of "meh" in my opinion. You might "hit", but more likely you're talking about bench / depth pieces in my opinion.


Rotation -
Seeing if Bello can make the next step. I'm also pretty confident that between Houck and Crawford, Bailey et al will be able to make one of them into a SP 3/4 as opposed to an SP5. I'm interested to see which one that is.

Giolito - I think Bailey is going to get him back to something more resembling what he was in 2021, and hopefully Breslow gets something really good for him at the deadline.


What I'm most excited to see is what Breslow can do selling in July.

From my perspective, that's pretty depressing.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

From my perspective, that's pretty depressing.

Don't get me wrong, it's not "ideal".

But I'd far rather watchin a rotation of:

Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Houck and Dickie Fitts go 76-86 as opposed to Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Ryu and Lorenzen go 80-82 and have still have learned nothing about younger players.


*(and I'd MUUUUUUCH rather watch an actual good rotation of something like Bello, Logan Gilbert, Montgomery, Giolito and whoever is better of Crawford / Houck go 90-72, but that's not in the cards).

 

[jbupstate]

Are we actually going to get MLB caliber starting catcher? Most likely no not for another year or two.

I’m not the greatest Fangraphs researcher but Connor Wong appears to be up there in most of the advanced metrics for catcher defense. Like top 10 in a grouping with guys that make a ton of money. Not a good hitter with way too many strikeouts but most MLB catchers can’t hit. If he cuts down his strikeouts and puts the ball in play more his speed gives him a chance to be a better than average hitting catcher.

I’m not saying he’s a great player but they could do a lot worse. Definitely a starting caliber MLB catcher.

 

[nvalvo]

I would say it is Devers, Martin, and Casas and a big pile of meh. Bello ended up meh

Grissom is the top candidate not to be meh, the assumption being he should be good if there is a season he isn't being yanked around.

Both Bello and Crawford need to be able to pitch more innings which should naturally happen. Bello fell off at the end. Natural progression for both probably put them as the middle of the rotation arms which would be good.

Does Story have another season of health in him? Probably not.

Can Giolito get his groove back? Maybe?

Is one or two of the 7 4th OF we have on this team going to emerge a solid starter? You would hope.

Is one of the four to five back end guys going emerge to be a solid starter? Money would be on Pivetta.

Are we actually going to get MLB caliber starting catcher? Most likely no not for another year or two.

Bello was fiftieth among MLB pitchers in IP, and top three in IP among pitchers 24 and younger (behind Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder).

 

[TomRicardo]

I’m not the greatest Fangraphs researcher but Connor Wong appears to be up there in most of the advanced metrics for catcher defense. Like top 10 in a grouping with guys that make a ton of money. Not a good hitter with way too many strikeouts but most MLB catchers can’t hit. If he cuts down his strikeouts and puts the ball in play more his speed gives him a chance to be a better than average hitting catcher.

I’m not saying he’s a great player but they could do a lot worse. Definitely a starting caliber MLB catcher.

He is really good at stopping runners and a good baserunner himself for a catcher. However his bat, his catching ability, and his pitch framing are really bad.

Overall he is a fairly poor starting catcher better suited as bench catcher

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Wong was worth 0.5 fWAR last year. Vazquez, who was pretty bad, was worth 1 fWAR. He was pretty bad last year, even with a BABIP well above average. .592 ops on the road. Fine to give him and McGuire the job share again, but the faster Teel is ready, the better.

 

[HfxBob]

Wong was worth 0.5 fWAR last year. Vazquez, who was pretty bad, was worth 1 fWAR. He was pretty bad last year, even with a BABIP well above average. .592 ops on the road. Fine to give him and McGuire the job share again, but the faster Teel is ready, the better.

Wong had a 2.2 bWAR though.

Evaluating catchers' defensive games seems to be one thing not even the most advanced metrics have figured out yet.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Wong had a 2.2 bWAR though.

Evaluating catchers' defensive games seems to be one thing not even the most advanced metrics have figured out yet.

I would absolutely put Wong on the list of bright spots - he's got the makings of a well rounded game. At the very least, he is a serviceable MLB player but he may be a bit more than that.

 

[Whoop-La White]

Wong missed a lot of ST last year with a hamstring injury, then found himself getting a lot of the starts after McGuire went down. I think by September he was running on fumes. The strikeouts need to be cut down--there were times he seemed to be conceding the at-bat so he could get the gear back on--but I think there's definitely another offensive level there to be unlocked, and when you have the workload of a first-year starting catcher, the offense naturally takes a little longer to come around.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

Wong missed a lot of ST last year with a hamstring injury, then found himself getting a lot of the starts after McGuire went down. I think by September he was running on fumes.

This is why I was pleased, if not excited, when the Red Sox picked up a couple of at least AAAA quality catchers.

 

[BaseballJones]

Boston's catching future: Teel against righties (and maybe some lefties), and Wong backing him up. Excellent defense, and Teel's bat should (hopefully!) play very well.

Casas at 1b - well, if you're not excited about his development and potential, I don't know what to say - he's a legit 40 hr potential bat at 1b.

Devers is hitting his prime so we should see a bunch of fireworks from him as well. That's exciting.

The offense as a whole should be fine this year. It's the pitching that obviously is the big concern. Bello and Crawford are a nice young 1-2 and should be staples in the major league rotation for years (hopefully Bello becomes a star and Crawford at least is a solid #3 for years). But there's a lot of question marks and concerns with the pitching. So we'll see how it goes.

 

[Fishy1]

Boston's catching future: Teel against righties (and maybe some lefties), and Wong backing him up. Excellent defense, and Teel's bat should (hopefully!) play very well.

Casas at 1b - well, if you're not excited about his development and potential, I don't know what to say - he's a legit 40 hr potential bat at 1b.

Devers is hitting his prime so we should see a bunch of fireworks from him as well. That's exciting.

The offense as a whole should be fine this year. It's the pitching that obviously is the big concern. Bello and Crawford are a nice young 1-2 and should be staples in the major league rotation for years (hopefully Bello becomes a star and Crawford at least is a solid #3 for years). But there's a lot of question marks and concerns with the pitching. So we'll see how it goes.

Not a lot to disagree with here, but for what it's worth, Wong has an absolutely horrific reverse split in 132 PA against LHP in the majors. To wit:

 

[LoweTek]

I think we might be underrating Story. He has had a lot of injury complications since he arrived. But by my middle infielder eye test, he is a ++ defender and hitter when healthy. He has shown leadership to the young players and has become a clubhouse presence. I say he has a shot to have a surprise breakout year.

 

[nvalvo]

I think we might be underrating Story. He has had a lot of injury complications since he arrived. But by my middle infielder eye test, he is a ++ defender and hitter when healthy. He has shown leadership to the young players and has become a clubhouse presence. I say he has a shot to have a surprise breakout year.

I think so, too. If this team surprises to the upside, the most likely reason IMO is that Story finally had a healthy offseason and returns to the All Star-level of play he established in Colorado.

 

[TrotNixonRing]

Grissom is the guy I’m looking at. I hope Sale does great in Atlanta, but we and the Sox were looking at him like a big fat question mark. Grissom may end up settling in as an average defense, .260/.310/.400 type, but I’m bullish and think he has the ability to be more like .280/.370/.460 with above average defense. And that would be a major asset. And a coup unless Sale discovers the Fountain of Youth.

 

[cantor44]

BEST CASE SCENARIO/THINGS TO POTENTIALLY ENJOY:
- Story's fielding will make a massive difference in run prevention; his bat won't return to Colorado days, but become competent again
- Decently high ceilings for Duran (if he's around) and Abreu. Duran's athleticism exciting to watch and will always yield bursts of productivity; Abreu might just be a very good hitter, not fringe, but very good
- Grissom's development could be exciting, we shall see, a high ceiling here, too
- Casas puts together a full quality season and becomes an all-star
- Devers has a more consistent season than last year, and is an all-star
- Crawford, it turns out, is actually good
- Pivetta, it turns out, really discovered something
- Bello keeps developing and takes the next step
- Whitlock healthy and properly placed in bullpen, becomes a relief ace again

 

[simplicio]

Yes please to all of the above.
+6 full months of good Yoshida.
+ improvement from Wong in his second full year?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Grissom is the guy I’m looking at. I hope Sale does great in Atlanta, but we and the Sox were looking at him like a big fat question mark. Grissom may end up settling in as an average defense, .260/.310/.400 type, but I’m bullish and think he has the ability to be more like .280/.370/.460 with above average defense. And that would be a major asset. And a coup unless Sale discovers the Fountain of Youth.

This would be crazy but I like it

 

[Bertha]

A lot of good stuff in this thread for those like me, always a Sox optimist in springtime. I’m hopeful that Andrew Bailey has a huge positive effect on the pitching staff. Something I have not yet seen (I only watch Sox games) is a pitching coach calling the pitches. Seems fairly easy in the pitchcom era. We have read plenty about unlocking a pitcher’s talent with improved pitch mix, and Bailey/Breslow both seem to feel strategy of how a pitcher attacks hitters is an important component to success. With the importance of this, I’m not sure why pitch call and location should be delegated to the catcher.

 

[pjheff]

Grissom is the guy I’m looking at. I hope Sale does great in Atlanta, but we and the Sox were looking at him like a big fat question mark. Grissom may end up settling in as an average defense, .260/.310/.400 type, but I’m bullish and think he has the ability to be more like .280/.370/.460 with above average defense. And that would be a major asset. And a coup unless Sale discovers the Fountain of Youth.

Grissom has hit everywhere he’s been, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post higher averages than either of those scenarios. My questions are going to be whether the power is going to come and where on the defensive spectrum he can stick. I’m hoping for a Carney Lansford-type outcome.

 

[Fishy1]

Theres a few guys on the roster with massive upside. Story, Devers, O'Neill - all of these guys have 5 or more WAR seasons in their rearview. This team needs 2/3 of those guys to be 4 or more WAR to compete.

Then there's the next class of guys: Yoshida way underperformed expectations in terms of discipline. I don't expect him to improve as a defender, but I expect him to be a better hitter. If he can be worth 2 WAR, that'd be great.Casas I expect to improve some as a defender, and the sky is the limjt for him as a hitter. I would love to see him be a 3 win player next year. Abreu is a bit of an unknown but I wouldnt be surprised by 250/.340/430 and league average defense in right field. Him and Duran could combine for 4 WAR of everything breaks right.

Grissom is a flatout better prospect than Valdez and Yorke - he's got a hit tool both of those guys can only dream of. I hope for 2-3 WAR with slightly below league average D at 2B.

Thats the upside. Not all of these guys will hit that upside, but you hope for better than last year. You cant underestimate the extent to which last years teams tires blew out. They got less than nothing from Kike, Arroyo, Story, Kluber, and Paxton and Sale were mediocre. Devers was a disaster at third, as was Casas at first. The only guys who really showed out were Duran and Verdugo. If they get performances in line with projections from 3/4 of these guys, they could be competing for a Wild Card even without adding another pitcher (which I hope they still do).

 

[LoLsapien]

Since this thread is about potential I'll also suggest that Nick Pivetta, if he's able to carry over his performance from the second half of last year, would easily be the #1 pitcher we've been pining for. Every advanced metric on the Fangraphs second half season split were fantastic. 35 k percent, 5.37 k/bb, 0.96 WHIP, 2.8 xfip, you name it. Ace level good. BABIP was just 0.260 so maybe some luck there, but if the new pitching brain trust can work with this guy... I'm pumped to see this guy pitch.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Since this thread is about potential I'll also suggest that Nick Pivetta, if he's able to carry over his performance from the second half of last year, would easily be the #1 pitcher we've been pining for. Every advanced metric on the Fangraphs second half season split were fantastic. 35 k percent, 5.37 k/bb, 0.96 WHIP, 2.8 xfip, you name it. Ace level good. BABIP was just 0.260 so maybe some luck there, but if the new pitching brain trust can work with this guy... I'm pumped to see this guy pitch.

@LoLsapien take a look at what i just posted on the Spring Training thread at about the same time as you were posting this!

 

[chrisfont9]

RE: Wilyer. Not to be a stan, but it's worth noting that Wilyer posted a better BB rate in AAA (admittedly at an older age) than Casas and a better wrc+ at AAA. His BB rate was better, and his K rate was slightly lower than Casas too. Now, some of that might have been the automatic umps, but he hasn't posted a BB rate in the minors below 15% since 2021. He doesn't have Casas's pedigree but the peripherals at the upper levels are very similar.

My point is, I think people should be a lot more excited by Wilyer than they are. Yeah, his BABIP grossly inflated his batting average in the majors, but he also posted a ludicrous HH%, and even if he dropped 100 points of BABIP you'd still probably have a guy with an OBP between .330-.340 with potential for more given his BB rate in the minors. Fangraphs and the like are projecting him for 14 home runs and a slugging percentage around .410-.420, which I think underrates his power: he hit 22 homers in just 363 PA in AAA this year.

My point is this: they have very, very similar bats. Lots of whiffs, lots of walks, and plenty of pop. He didn't really get a chance to hit lefties in the bigs but I'm bullish on that front too, given all the adjustments he's made as a hitter.

Also very excited to see what Grissom can do with a full season of hitting. He's a guy who could lead the league in batting average a few times.

I'm very open minded about Wilyer. Just going to throw out one comp, Randy Arozarena. Wilyer probably isn't on that level, and his stats don't quite compare. But! Wilyer's age 24 season isn't all that far off from Arozarena's (.930 OPS compared to RA's 1.003 in AA-AAA) and Arozarena didn't do much until his age 26 season. Not everyone has a glide path to stardom, sometimes it takes a while. If Abreu reaches the "discount Arozarena" level in a year or two, that's a valuable guy. But the Sox' outfield is crowded for the near term.

 

[LoLsapien]

Great minds! Also +1 on Abreu. I know I'm sort of the eternal sunshine guy, but there's a lot of upside in the lineup that I'm excited to see out there, basically all the positions on the field. If Pivetta is the 2nd half '23 guy, Bello continues his growth towards being a top of the staff pitcher, Kutter is a reliable #3 type guy, Giolito can take the ball every 5 games and give the team a chance to win, and we have a couple bulk relief guys that can step up as #5 and #6 starters... I'm feeling good about the team. The relief crew should be very good. This team won't win 100 games but they should be in the mix. I'm kind of sorry for all the folks who would prefer to dwell on the downside here. I can't wait for the season to start.

@LoLsapien take a look at what i just posted on the Spring Training thread at about the same time as you were posting this!

 

[Fishy1]

I'm very open minded about Wilyer. Just going to throw out one comp, Randy Arozarena. Wilyer probably isn't on that level, and his stats don't quite compare. But! Wilyer's age 24 season isn't all that far off from Arozarena's (.930 OPS compared to RA's 1.003 in AA-AAA) and Arozarena didn't do much until his age 26 season. Not everyone has a glide path to stardom, sometimes it takes a while. If Abreu reaches the "discount Arozarena" level in a year or two, that's a valuable guy. But the Sox' outfield is crowded for the near term.

Happy to have another guy on the bandwagon.

Wilyer's path is especially interesting to me because he seems to have made so many adjustments. He seems to truly be a student of hitting. The discipline and the power really only came together post-pandemic. Before that he was a guy with no hit tool and no power and a little discipline, someone destined for the scrap pile. Then, in 2021, the power materialized, and in 2022, he suddenly started taking a BB nearly 20% of the time, resulting in astronomical OBP's despite hitting south of .250 that year. And then last year he seemed to put it all together, hitting .274 (his best average since .268 at A+ ball) at AAA despite posting a BABIP south of .300, slashing his K rate by 6% while also posting the best ISO of his career. If his BABIP had been around .325-.350 (as it had been every other year since the pandemic) he might have hit .300 and posted an OPS north of 1.000 in AAA.

Obviously in the bigs the BABIP was unsustainable, but that was coupled with a really great HH%, and to be honest I think the BB% of 10.6 that he posted will only go up as he gets more comfortable with big league pitching. Will he ever hit over .275 in a full big league season? Probably no, but if he's walking 10-15% of the time it won't matter. I think he's got the tools and the discipline and IQ to be as a good a hitter as Casas. I'm maybe irrationally bullish on him.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I posted a version of this in the sprawling rumors thread... and I am also excited about this team, and wish they would sign a pitcher and take a run at the playoffs since all of the AL teams are flawed.

There is a ... non-zero chance that Giolito returns to his 2021 form, Bello takes the leap, Whitlock's new Hulk body turns him into Jake Peavy 2.0, Houck learns a dominant 3rd pitch, Pivetta recreates his second half performance, Crawford is as good as last year's stats looked, Casas becomes an All-Star, Duran picks up where he left off, Yoshida extends his May-July performance over the whole season, Devers finally has that season we've all been waiting for, Story roars back at 90% of his old self, Grissom is a league average second baseman with a .750 OPS, the bullpen lives up to its potential, Wong throws out 100% of basestealers, Rafaela comes up mid season and is the modern day Tony Phillips, ONeill goes on the TB12 flexibility program and plays the whole season as a gold glover, Abreu hits like his namesake Bobby, and the team is energized in September when Mayer, Teel, and Roman get called up for some coffee.

 

[LoLsapien]

[Tom Brady Let's Gooooooo.gif]

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I posted a version of this in the sprawling rumors thread... and I am also excited about this team, and wish they would sign a pitcher and take a run at the playoffs since all of the AL teams are flawed.

There is a ... non-zero chance that Giolito returns to his 2021 form, Bello takes the leap, Whitlock's new Hulk body turns him into Jake Peavy 2.0, Houck learns a dominant 3rd pitch, Pivetta recreates his second half performance, Crawford is as good as last year's stats looked, Casas becomes an All-Star, Duran picks up where he left off, Yoshida extends his May-July performance over the whole season, Devers finally has that season we've all been waiting for, Story roars back at 90% of his old self, Grissom is a league average second baseman with a .750 OPS, the bullpen lives up to its potential, Wong throws out 100% of basestealers, Rafaela comes up mid season and is the modern day Tony Phillips, ONeill goes on the TB12 flexibility program and plays the whole season as a gold glover, Abreu hits like his namesake Bobby, and the team is energized in September when Mayer, Teel, and Roman get called up for some coffee.

Fuck. Yeah.

 

[chrisfont9]

Happy to have another guy on the bandwagon.

Wilyer's path is especially interesting to me because he seems to have made so many adjustments. He seems to truly be a student of hitting. The discipline and the power really only came together post-pandemic. Before that he was a guy with no hit tool and no power and a little discipline, someone destined for the scrap pile. Then, in 2021, the power materialized, and in 2022, he suddenly started taking a BB nearly 20% of the time, resulting in astronomical OBP's despite hitting south of .250 that year. And then last year he seemed to put it all together, hitting .274 (his best average since .268 at A+ ball) at AAA despite posting a BABIP south of .300, slashing his K rate by 6% while also posting the best ISO of his career. If his BABIP had been around .325-.350 (as it had been every other year since the pandemic) he might have hit .300 and posted an OPS north of 1.000 in AAA.

Obviously in the bigs the BABIP was unsustainable, but that was coupled with a really great HH%, and to be honest I think the BB% of 10.6 that he posted will only go up as he gets more comfortable with big league pitching. Will he ever hit over .275 in a full big league season? Probably no, but if he's walking 10-15% of the time it won't matter. I think he's got the tools and the discipline and IQ to be as a good a hitter as Casas. I'm maybe irrationally bullish on him.

I mean, we have seen plenty of meh-tool hitting savants over the years, several of whom are in the HOF. Boggs was an intriguing rookie at 24, nothing more. Edgar Martinez didn't stick in the majors til age 26, and didn't break out til 27, not slugging much until like age 29. It happens. Those are outrageous comps, I know.

 

[sezwho]

Happy to have another guy on the bandwagon.

Wilyer's path is especially interesting to me because he seems to have made so many adjustments. He seems to truly be a student of hitting. The discipline and the power really only came together post-pandemic. Before that he was a guy with no hit tool and no power and a little discipline, someone destined for the scrap pile. Then, in 2021, the power materialized, and in 2022, he suddenly started taking a BB nearly 20% of the time, resulting in astronomical OBP's despite hitting south of .250 that year. And then last year he seemed to put it all together, hitting .274 (his best average since .268 at A+ ball) at AAA despite posting a BABIP south of .300, slashing his K rate by 6% while also posting the best ISO of his career. If his BABIP had been around .325-.350 (as it had been every other year since the pandemic) he might have hit .300 and posted an OPS north of 1.000 in AAA.

Obviously in the bigs the BABIP was unsustainable, but that was coupled with a really great HH%, and to be honest I think the BB% of 10.6 that he posted will only go up as he gets more comfortable with big league pitching. Will he ever hit over .275 in a full big league season? Probably no, but if he's walking 10-15% of the time it won't matter. I think he's got the tools and the discipline and IQ to be as a good a hitter as Casas. I'm maybe irrationally bullish on him.

Make room! After Casas, his ABs and defensive plays will have my closest attention as the season starts. Not sure what to forecast, but something seemed very real about what I was seeing.

 

[cantor44]

Make room! After Casas, his ABs and defensive plays will have my closest attention as the season starts. Not sure what to forecast, but something seemed very real about what I was seeing.

Yeah, my feeling is that there are several players worth paying attention to, very much including Wilyer. Even if the team finishes south of .500, there should be some interesting stuff to follow. I think there's a big gap between this team's ceiling and its floor, many many "ifs" to be answered. Frankly, I'm interested in almost every position in the starting line up, except maybe catcher, I think what we had in Wong in 2023 is probably what we got. Other than that, there is the chance of improvement at every player position across the diamond from 2023. Which is why I really want them to add a top end starting pitcher ...

 

[nvalvo]

Yeah, my feeling there are several players worth paying attention to, very much including Wilyer. Even if the team finishes south of .500, there should be some interesting stuff to follow. I think there's a big gap between this team's ceiling and its floor, many many "ifs" to be answered. Frankly, I'm interested in almost every position in the starting line up, except maybe catcher, I think what we had in Wong in 2023 is probably what we got. Other than that, there is the chance of improvement at every player position across the diamond from 2023. Which is why I really want them to add a top end starting pitcher ...

I agree with basically all of this, but why are we down on Wong?

Here are his month-to-month wRC+ splits last year:

Marpril: 82
May: 119
June: 52
July: 95
August: 99
Septober: 23

He's small, and McGuire missed five-ish weeks in late June/July which added some to his workload. It looks to me like he just wore down. On August 30th, he had a .700-ish OPS. That's very good for a catcher.