I think you vastly overestimate what Major League Baseball teams 'can afford to' run out as 5th (heck even 4th) starter over a season. 20 games with Wright or Velazquez doesn't feel like any kind of serious concern to me.
I don't feel I overestimate - perhaps it you, lapa, who underestimate what deep-into-the-playoffs MLB teams can afford. Maybe you're cool with W/V for some starts, but if the season ends up on the line and it's one of those two vs. Domingo German - well, I'd rather not be flipping a coin games 159-161.
Wright, Velazquez, and Workman just pitched a shutout against an offense that's been much closer to MLB average so far than a lot of people expected.
Cool sample size. Someone needs to be a long swingman, and Velazquez needs to keep getting looks, but I'm not banking many more shutouts from that fearsome trio.
I think the opposite. In the Sox championship years, if you look at it in terms of generality, they would have just one lousy hitter that played quite a bit down the stretch. Other than that they had quality hitters throughout the lineup. And you look at their number 5 pitchers; they had one that was "Wright/Velazquez." That was Dempster in 2013, Julain Tavrez/Wakefield in 2007 and in 2004 Lowe was awful and Wakefield not very good either.
Dempster, in 2013, pitched mediocre, sure - for 170+ innings. There's a trade off.
Tavarez in 2007, similarly, 134.2 innings. I
hope Wright can pitch at Tavarez-2007 level for 100+. Last night was incredible - but my HopeMeter© didn't budge.
Wakefield in 2007: 189ip. He may not have been electric, but those are lots and lots and lots of meaningful innings and chances to win ballgames.
And yes, Lowe was awful in 2004. And he, too, pitched 180+ innings. So did Wakefield.
You don't need your number 5 starter to be that good.
No, but I don't want to advocate for "good." I want to advocate for not having a team that needs lots of guys to handle a short chunk of innings. The 2004 Sox got 5 starts by 3 guys, other than the top 5 starters. The 2007 team had 3 guys make 11 starts outside the top 6 starters (Jon Lester replaced Tav halfway through the year). And the 2013 team is the outlier of sorts: 25 starts by 6 different pitchers not in the normal rotation to start the year. Of course, one of those was Jake Peavy whom we acquired via trade...
Suppose the top 4 are pitching well enough and the number 5 is just okay. How much would a Pomeranz help the Sox if he pitches "well enough" vs for example we have 2 or 3 or maybe more big holes in the lineup such as the catchers? Wouldn't getting a guy like Ramos in a 3 team deal be overall better for the Sox in this scenario?
I think Wright will be fine as a 5 or better.
If the top 4 pitch well - awesome! Am I confident that Wright/Velaz/Beeks/Kevin Appier can pitch the rest of those innings, effectively enough that we're hoping Domingo German blows it in 162? Not in the least.
Would love to get an improvement at catcher in terms of the offense, sure. But why is a catcher coming cheaper than a SP? What is our position of strength in that scenario vs. one I propose?