Where’s the ‘like’ button?I don't think I'd do a damn thing. The potential acquisitions are either shitty, will cost more than we have to give, or are no/marginally better than the depth we have. I'm totally comfortable playing this hand.
Where’s the ‘like’ button?I don't think I'd do a damn thing. The potential acquisitions are either shitty, will cost more than we have to give, or are no/marginally better than the depth we have. I'm totally comfortable playing this hand.
Playing as they are I might tend to agree with you, but we have to remember that the MFY aren't likely to roll over and hand the division to Boston. You want to avoid that Wild Card game and hopefully draw the later starting of the two divisional playoff series to best line up and utilize the top three arms in the rotation. Let's remember that even though the Sox now sit 4.5 games ahead of New York, The Yankees have played three less games. Also remember that the two teams have ten games left against each other including six of their last twelve, three of those to end the season. IMO this season could well hinge on what the fourth and fifth starters are able to contribute.Agreed. You're talking about the 4/5 slots in the rotation. If one of the first 3 went down, you'd have reason to overpay for a replacement. Not here
Fair points, but again, what are you trading that’s going to get anyone of significance? The system is strapped and in a sellers market for SP, who are they getting, in theory? It’s not just about paying the fines, it’s also the draft and international pool ramifications and how they would further stunt a system that needs help, quickly. Further, much like the Celtics, the team has a serious payroll crunch coming with guys that are going to need to be resigned or replaced. I’d rather not see them break it to upgrade from Velazquez to Bartolo Colon.Playing as they are I might tend to agree with you, but we have to remember that the MFY aren't likely to roll over and hand the division to Boston. You want to avoid that Wild Card game and hopefully draw the later starting of the two divisional playoff series to best line up and utilize the top three arms in the rotation. Let's remember that even though the Sox now sit 4.5 games ahead of New York, The Yankees have played three less games. Also remember that the two teams have ten games left against each other including six of their last twelve, three of those to end the season. IMO this season could well hinge on what the fourth and fifth starters are able to contribute.
The thing that sucks the most in this equation is the timing of the Rodriguez injury on top of Wright being out and the emergence of Brasier and Thornburg so close to the deadline. Knowing what they could provide over a larger sample might make Johnson or Velazquez available. Now they won't demand a king's ransom, but could be nice pieces for someone to add.Fair points, but again, what are you trading that’s going to get anyone of significance? The system is strapped and in a sellers market for SP, who are they getting, in theory? It’s not just about paying the fines, it’s also the draft and international pool ramifications and how they would further stunt a system that needs help, quickly. Further, much like the Celtics, the team has a serious payroll crunch coming with guys that are going to need to be resigned or replaced. I’d rather not see them break it to upgrade from Velazquez to Bartolo Colon.
Right, but I don’t see who’s out there that is enough of an upgrade on those guys to incur all the penalties and is attainable with what else we’re working with. I’m certainly open to suggestions but he names I see bandied about as available and affordable I’m not sure give me a lot of confidence they are a difference maker and the ones that would be that guy, we can’t compete on - I’d imagine SEA is going to be active with Paxton going down and the NL is a dog fight.The thing that sucks the most in this equation is the timing of the Rodriguez injury on top of Wright being out and the emergence of Brasier and Thornburg so close to the deadline. Knowing what they could provide over a larger sample might make Johnson or Velazquez available. Now they won't demand a king's ransom, but could be nice pieces for someone to add.
Matt Harvey possibly. Hamels is probably too much for us. But if we eclipse the tax barrier we can also improve in other areas. Remember, DD has made significant bullpen upgrades the last two deadlines (Ziegler/Reed) without giving up anything of significance. He’s a superb trader.Right, but I don’t see who’s out there that is enough of an upgrade on those guys to incur all the penalties and is attainable with what else we’re working with. I’m certainly open to suggestions but he names I see bandied about as available and affordable I’m not sure give me a lot of confidence they are a difference maker and the ones that would be that guy, we can’t compete on - I’d imagine SEA is going to be active with Paxton going down and the NL is a dog fight.
Edit: the thing that sucks is that we’re paying like $60M to guys not contributing.
I could give two shits about the money - and I may be alone, but I think Henry probably doesn’t care all that much - but the organization is depleted right now. Like, severely. I don’t think they have the pieces to GFIN, even if they don’t care about the $.Lifting a part of something I posted in The Rodriguez to the DL thread.....
I get that the tax issue is a concern, but let me ask this. Might it be unreasonable to expect this sort of performance again next season? What we are witnessing this season has been other worldly so far. The way this offense is clicking coupled with the overall performance of the pitching staff, shouldn't you sort of be in GFIN mode? If it's mostly money that stands in the way, the Sox have it. Yes there are concerns attached to that, but this team right now has a chance to make history.
Yep we all know who the playoff teams will be and looking at those teams do you prefer your chances in a one game series or a five game series? As for history... JDM and Mookie are Ortiz/Ramirezesque. Sale may be as close to Pedro as any of us may see on this team again and you've got a rock solid closer. You'll never duplicate '04, but this could be THAT team with a chance for multiple championships for the next generation of fans to enjoy, but there is a window here. IMO, this team would be historic to those not old enough to remember '04. And as for some of us older guys, I wouldn't mind another WS ring before I kick off. My father-in-law never got to experience one for himself, let alone be able to share it with his children or grand kids. And yes, we certainly can respectfully differ on things. We all see things with different eyes.I could give two shits about the money - and I may be alone, but I think Henry probably doesn’t care all that much - but the organization is depleted right now. Like, severely. I don’t think they have the pieces to GFIN, even if they don’t care about the $.
History? What history? A WS ring? I’m perfectly content with the three I’ve lived with if it means not bottoming out. We’re teetering on a very shaky precipice of having a long fallow period coming if things don’t fall right. And while the record looks amazing, it’s important to remember that the rest of the AL friggin sucks. They’ve all tanked or just aren’t good. It’s halfway through July and we know who the playoff teams will be, with an outside shot that team #5 might change. Adding a marginal #4 isn’t guaranteeing anything. Shit, they could add Scherzer and it’s still a crap shoot. That’s baseball.
I’m perfectly fine going to war with what we have. Reasonable minds can certainly differ on that.
How about a 5 game series?Yep we all know who the playoff teams will be and looking at those teams do you prefer your chances in a one game series or a seven game series? As for history... JDM and Mookie are Ortiz/Ramirezesque. Sale may be as close to Pedro as any of us may see on this team again and you've got a rock solid closer. You'll never duplicate '04, but this could be THAT team with a chance for multiple championships for the next generation of fans to enjoy, but there is a window here. IMO, this team would be historic to those not old enough to remember '04. And as for some of us older guys, I wouldn't mind another WS ring before I kick off. My father-in-law never got to experience one for himself, let alone be able to share it with his children or grand kids. And yes, we certainly can respectfully differ on things. We all see things with different eyes.
I just differ that I’d rather see them competitive for the next five years or whatever than go for it now. I’ll take rings all day long, but I don’t want to watch drudge. If they had the farm and cap space, sure, go get a stud rental, like the Cubs did with Chapman, seal it up for that ‘last piece’ and worry about it tomorrow. I much prefer the prolonged approach. And we’re going to start seeing some our main pieces leaving soon because we can’t afford them and we don’t have the pieces to reload. I’m just not seeing a ‘gettable’ guy out there that’s making the difference to breach that particular barrier. Again, glad to be proven wrong.Yep we all know who the playoff teams will be and looking at those teams do you prefer your chances in a one game series or a seven game series? As for history... JDM and Mookie are Ortiz/Ramirezesque. Sale may be as close to Pedro as any of us may see on this team again and you've got a rock solid closer. You'll never duplicate '04, but this could be THAT team with a chance for multiple championships for the next generation of fans to enjoy, but there is a window here. IMO, this team would be historic to those not old enough to remember '04. And as for some of us older guys, I wouldn't mind another WS ring before I kick off. My father-in-law never got to experience one for himself, let alone be able to share it with his children or grand kids. And yes, we certainly can respectfully differ on things. We all see things with different eyes.
You'd rather be "competitive" for 5 years than win a World Series or two and be dogshit three years down the line?I just differ that I’d rather see them competitive for the next five years or whatever than go for it now. I’ll take rings all day long, but I don’t want to watch drudge. If they had the farm and cap space, sure, go get a stud rental, like the Cubs did with Chapman, seal it up for that ‘last piece’ and worry about it tomorrow. I much prefer the prolonged approach. And we’re going to start seeing some our main pieces leaving soon because we can’t afford them and we don’t have the pieces to reload. I’m just not seeing a ‘gettable’ guy out there that’s making the difference to breach that particular barrier. Again, glad to be proven wrong.
Cool and we can all disagree on that. I didn’t particularly enjoy much of the 2012/14/15 seasons. Ymmv. My point is simply that I don’t want the team to be in gfin mode when it’s not needed and not particularly attainable and mortgage the future anymore than they already have and there’s a lot of tough decisions coming. I ascribe to Theo’s freedom of ‘make the postseason, then see what happens’. I’ll take my chances with Sale in a one game playoff if it means we aren’t barren.You'd rather be "competitive" for 5 years than win a World Series or two and be dogshit three years down the line?
Sorry, I'll take the ups and downs. Nobody's going to remember a team that won 93-95 games for 5 years straight, but a World Series champ is forever.
It's not necessarily that there is a trade to be made, the point is that if there is a trade to be made to put us over the top, would you do it?Cool and we can all disagree on that. I didn’t particularly enjoy much of the 2012/14/15 seasons. Ymmv. My point is simply that I don’t want the team to be in gfin mode when it’s not needed and not particularly attainable and mortgage the future anymore than they already have and there’s a lot of tough decisions coming. I ascribe to Theo’s freedom of ‘make the postseason, then see what happens’. I’ll take my chances with Sale in a one game playoff if it means we aren’t barren.
Which is all completely beside the point. I’m still waiting for someone to suggest an acquisition that’s both realistic and enough to make some kind of difference. I’m not seeing someone who we can compete on that is a big enough upgrade to the 4/5 spot that we incur the penalties attached. As stated, willing to be corrected on that. But Jesus shit, what are people looking to get to make us that* much better? Because we don’t have it to offer.
If there was a trade to be made, particularly for a good starter to overcome the ERod/Pomeranz/Wright injury trifecta, it might be worth it to exceed the cap. But it would have to be for exactly the right guy (ideally someone with a couple years of control at an reasonable rate...someone like 2016 Drew Pomeranz). The problem is that that guy doesn't really exist in the 2018 market and even if he did, and the Red Sox were willing to exceed the luxury tax, there's still that little problem of not having anything of value to trade for him. Which is what makes this whole exercise rather futile even in the hypothetical.It's not necessarily that there is a trade to be made, the point is that if there is a trade to be made to put us over the top, would you do it?
Or would you rather simply be good for a bunch of years than elite for a year or two followed by a rebuild? As stated, I'll take elite.
That specific "over the top" trade isn't really in the cards this year. It'd be one thing if we could lock down a two-years-ago Andrew Miller or something, but it doesn't change the greater point of dominance versus sustained competitiveness. Like I said, winning 94 games and bowing out in the first round 5 years in a row gets you nothing.
Not that it is central to this conversation, but what?I know Moreland has been an emergency 3B in the past.
Pearce has played a little at 3rd but it's been a while and even then it was just a handful of games, I can't see him being anything but an emergency. I don't see any record or recall that Moreland has ever played 3rd.Bullpen arm, starting pitcher, 2nd baseman or Rafael upgrade (injury?) seem to be the major points of discussing upgrades here.
I'm in agreement about the starting pitching (nothing is out there at a reasonable cost, short and long term) that will be an improvement over Johnson, Valazquez. Rodriguez' injury could be nothing and Pomeranz could suddenly (I'm feeling this is unlikely however) turn the corner and look like he did last season. Wright could be back.
I'm okay with Brock holding down 3rd base... if Rafi's injury is serious I'm not sure how much I like our options there. Has Pearce played any 3rd? I know Moreland has been an emergency 3B in the past.
The bullpen I'm okay with as it looks solid... could use improvement but I don't see any real improvements in trades. The Thornburg and Brasier additions I'm trusting will be that help.
So the Rafi injury has me the most concerned basically, but I have zero ideas for help
I agree 100%. Also I think people tend to overestimate the value of midseason acquisitions, or at least to treat that value too much as providing some kind of certainty rather than just a marginal improvement of chances. There's no single player or combination of players -- certainly none that we have the assets to acquire -- that would turn our championship chances from "pretty good, better than most" to "virtual lock". Teams can do that in basketball, where individual talent trumps everything else. But in baseball, not so much.Cool and we can all disagree on that. I didn’t particularly enjoy much of the 2012/14/15 seasons. Ymmv. My point is simply that I don’t want the team to be in gfin mode when it’s not needed and not particularly attainable and mortgage the future anymore than they already have and there’s a lot of tough decisions coming. I ascribe to Theo’s freedom of ‘make the postseason, then see what happens’. I’ll take my chances with Sale in a one game playoff if it means we aren’t barren.
For what need in particular? I feel like you just described the entire Pawtucket roster here. Are there holes we can't fill in completely mediocre fashion from that pool?Are there AAA/shuttle guys that the Sox could pursue? Some injury insurance type organizational filler might be useful.
It's an interesting question. I doubt many fans would want their team to be the Florida Marlins though.You'd rather be "competitive" for 5 years than win a World Series or two and be dogshit three years down the line?
Sorry, I'll take the ups and downs. Nobody's going to remember a team that won 93-95 games for 5 years straight, but a World Series champ is forever.
I’ve seen this phrase a few times now. It’s important to note that “ligament damage” is something that happens with a sprain. It’s part of the definition. So hearing he sprained his ankle then hearing separately that he has ligament damage doesn’t make the news any worse.The last report on ERod is ligament damage and a boot for 2 weeks. In all likelihood that means a minimum of 6 weeks before healthy enough to be in the rotation. So I don't think that qualifies as nothing.
A little more than shuttle guys, but there are several FA veterans (Lackey, Kazmir, Feldman, etc) that might make sense for added depth/injury protection.Are there AAA/shuttle guys that the Sox could pursue? Some injury insurance type organizational filler might be useful.
I'm guessing he meant Pearce.Just as an aside, Mitch Moreland has pitched exactly 2 more games in his career (2) than he has played at 3rd base.
He specifically mentioned Pearce right before saying Moreland.I'm guessing he meant Pearce.
This is exactly what I would suggest. The problem with using Johnson and Velazquez (or Beeks) as starters is that none of them can get through a lineup three times, meaning the bullpen gets stretched, and also meaning Sale, Porcello and Price HAVE TO get to the 7th or there won't be a healthy arm left in the pen by September. If none of FA veterans work out, OK, we gave it a try. If one of them catches fire, it's a great story.A little more than shuttle guys, but there are several FA veterans (Lackey, Kazmir, Feldman, etc) that might make sense for added depth/injury protection.
Injuries are here now, how far away do you think these guys might be from being MLB ready?A little more than shuttle guys, but there are several FA veterans (Lackey, Kazmir, Feldman, etc) that might make sense for added depth/injury protection.
That's a reasonable question and would probably depend on who it is. I have seen mention that Lackey is interested in returning so you would think he has at least been throwing. He or anyone else would likely need 3or4 mL starts to build strength and regain form. That would likely be 2/3 weeks minimum.......Johnson/Vazquez/Beeks/etc until the veteran is readyInjuries are here now, how far away do you think these guys might be from being MLB ready?
I understand your point and your certainly entitled to your opinion. Just let me expand a bit on where I'm coming from. I'm convinced that there is a deal to be made to find a competent 4-5 starter that's not going to bankrupt the already barren farm system. Do I know who that is? No, but there are always guys available. You say you'll take your chances with Sale in a one game "playoff", but in the mean time let's suppose for a minute (unthinkable to some right now) that it you need to use Sale to avoid that one game "playoff". My point being that a couple of wins out of that 4-5 slot may be crucial in avoiding that. Not looking to be "that much better", looking to try to maintain what they have at the moment. I'll give you the fact that making a move doesn't guarantee that, but you're speaking of the future when there is no guarantee that Sale, Kimbrel or Martinez will be here. Given their on field importance to this team right now and the fact that they all might be gone after next season, I say yes, GFIN.Cool and we can all disagree on that. I didn’t particularly enjoy much of the 2012/14/15 seasons. Ymmv. My point is simply that I don’t want the team to be in gfin mode when it’s not needed and not particularly attainable and mortgage the future anymore than they already have and there’s a lot of tough decisions coming. I ascribe to Theo’s freedom of ‘make the postseason, then see what happens’. I’ll take my chances with Sale in a one game playoff if it means we aren’t barren.
Which is all completely beside the point. I’m still waiting for someone to suggest an acquisition that’s both realistic and enough to make some kind of difference. I’m not seeing someone who we can compete on that is a big enough upgrade to the 4/5 spot that we incur the penalties attached. As stated, willing to be corrected on that. But Jesus shit, what are people looking to get to make us that* much better? Because we don’t have it to offer.
No. Even if he hadn't been suspended, there is a good chance he wouldn't be an option. Split between Lowell and Portland, he has 15ks in 44 PA (10 in 23 AA PA). I mean, I guess if he is hitting .384/.457/.755 on August 28th he might be, but barring something outlandish, I don't see it.Could Chavis be an option if they needed 3B depth? He's obviously missed a significant amount of time this year and would need to be added to the 40 man but he might be a consideration.
I broke it down in the ERod thread, but it will take more than 3-4 mL starts to build up for someone who hasn't been actively on a roster in at least 9 months. Think of it as spring training, which is more like a week or two of throwing on the side, then a few starts to get game ready. We're talking 5-6 weeks at minimum to get a starting pitcher up to speed. Probably longer if it's an older pitcher like Lackey (he's nearly 40!).That's a reasonable question and would probably depend on who it is. I have seen mention that Lackey is interested in returning so you would think he has at least been throwing. He or anyone else would likely need 3or4 mL starts to build strength and regain form. That would likely be 2/3 weeks minimum.......Johnson/Vazquez/Beeks/etc until the veteran is ready
At least 3-4 starts, but there is going to have to be some sort of conditioning and workouts before you get to that point. These guys can't just put on a uni and start tossing in games. I say probably Sept first might be a realistic goal if you signed one of these guys today, but can you wait that long just to determine if one of these guys can help? I've no issue with taking a flyer on this sort of player to be insurance to the insurance, but not as your first choice. I think getting them in shape and MLB game ready will take too long and if the crap out you're far you're starting the process again in Sept when you're going to have to wait for anyone decent to get through waivers. .That's a reasonable question and would probably depend on who it is. I have seen mention that Lackey is interested in returning so you would think he has at least been throwing. He or anyone else would likely need 3or4 mL starts to build strength and regain form. That would likely be 2/3 weeks minimum.......Johnson/Vazquez/Beeks/etc until the veteran is ready
Would love to see Dozier's bat in this lineup, but I think even a buy low on him would be considerable.4 HR in the past 8 days and a 1.001 OPS in July.
The buy-low opportunity on Dozier, if it was ever there, is leaving the station.
Man would he be something else to have as an additional middle of the order bat.
They'd also shed a lot of payroll in that scenario and be able to sign other FAs to fill in spots. Sale, Kimbrel, Martinez, Porcello, HanRam, Pablo, Pom, Bogie, JBJ, etc all add up to about 130-140 mil in payroll. Add in Price and it's $160-170 mil. Of course they will re-sign some of those players but they should have money to spend in FA if/when some of them walk.I understand your point and your certainly entitled to your opinion. Just let me expand a bit on where I'm coming from. I'm convinced that there is a deal to be made to find a competent 4-5 starter that's not going to bankrupt the already barren farm system. Do I know who that is? No, but there are always guys available. You say you'll take your chances with Sale in a one game "playoff", but in the mean time let's suppose for a minute (unthinkable to some right now) that it you need to use Sale to avoid that one game "playoff". My point being that a couple of wins out of that 4-5 slot may be crucial in avoiding that. Not looking to be "that much better", looking to try to maintain what they have at the moment. I'll give you the fact that making a move doesn't guarantee that, but you're speaking of the future when there is no guarantee that Sale, Kimbrel or Martinez will be here. Given their on field importance to this team right now and the fact that they all might be gone after next season, I say yes, GFIN.
What evidence is there of this? In their limited number of starts (4 of them combined) over the last few weeks, they haven't gone through the order 3 times. They also haven't been given a chance. I think that's at least partially due to the fact that they've been in the bullpen most of the year and aren't fully stretched out. It may also be due to Cora not thinking they had the ability to do it, rather than just a lack of stamina. Has he said that? Regardless, neither of those things mean they can't do it. I would expect if one/both of them were to be in the rotation for a month-plus, they'd get stretched out as it went along (Johnson would currently be on that path). Their 3.31 ERA in those, albeit short, 4 starts doesn't scream that they can't pitch deeper into the game. We don't know what would have happened had they been left in longer.This is exactly what I would suggest. The problem with using Johnson and Velazquez (or Beeks) as starters is that none of them can get through a lineup three times, meaning the bullpen gets stretched, and also meaning Sale, Porcello and Price HAVE TO get to the 7th or there won't be a healthy arm left in the pen by September. If none of FA veterans work out, OK, we gave it a try. If one of them catches fire, it's a great story.
It also allows us to pursue Dozier, as Prometheus Wakefield suggested, especially if Rafi has serious shoulder issues.
Dozier is actually a pretty interesting rental case in terms of that possibility of buying low. Especially since it'll probably take more then hot July at this point for Minnesota to feel comfortable offering him a QO at years end in the event they were to hold out for equivalent type return value.4 HR in the past 8 days and a 1.001 OPS in July.
The buy-low opportunity on Dozier, if it was ever there, is leaving the station.
Man would he be something else to have as an additional middle of the order bat.
I see it the other way around—it would take more than a cold spring for the Twins not to offer a QO.Dozier is actually a pretty interesting rental case in terms of that possibility of buying low. Especially since it'll probably take more then hot July at this point for Minnesota to feel comfortable offering him a QO at years end in the event they were to hold out for equivalent type return value.
I get what you saying here, but this team is here NOW. I hate the idea of a 4-5 starter possibly being the difference between the Wild Card Game and the ALDS. I don't believe THAT guy mortgages the future and I would be surprised if DD overpays given what little talent there is.They'd also shed a lot of payroll in that scenario and be able to sign other FAs to fill in spots. Sale, Kimbrel, Martinez, Porcello, HanRam, Pablo, Pom, Bogie, JBJ, etc all add up to about 130-140 mil in payroll. Add in Price and it's $160-170 mil. Of course they will re-sign some of those players but they should have money to spend in FA if/when some of them walk.
Trying to predict what the team will look like in 2 years may be fun, but it's ultimately fruitless. Mortgaging the future because you think the team won't compete in 2 years will just make that even more likely. Granted, the Sox can't really do that because there is no future to mortgage down in the minors, but trading away a lot of fringe guys leads to no depth and being in the situation we are already in. I doubt anyone gets too upset if the team moves Chavis, Dalbec, Mata, Houck, Beeks etc, but if they move 2-3 of those guys... ugh.
He would also make Devers look like Brooks Robinson.Could Chavis be an option if they needed 3B depth? He's obviously missed a significant amount of time this year and would need to be added to the 40 man but he might be a consideration.