Projecting Sizemore

[keninten]

 
Would you take that approach if your restaurant employees were special, non-fungible talents in whose long-term success you had already invested considerable resources?

Of course, if they are not good under pressure they would only be useful during slow times. I wouldn`t invest in any schooling or training if they are not good under pressure. I just haven`t had to make a decision after investing in an employee. Some cooks out of culinary schools have knowledge but can`t operate in a working kitchen because of the fast pace.
 
I``ve just always been curious about the way some athletes are pampered. Some may need it and excell because they were given time to adjust. Some people actually thrive under pressure. I`ve never thought one way will work for all. The stories about Bradley preparing himself and only hitting with 2 strikes while in college or high school would make me think he may like to push himself to see what he can and can`t do.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Gomes was interviewed by Kurkjian postgame, and the first question was about Sizemore.
 
"Well, it's St. Patrick's Day. If there's a pot o'gold, I think we found it in center field."

Gotta love the Gomes always saying something good about a teammate. 

 

[luckysox]

My concern about Sizemore is almost as pronounced for Victorino.  He also has issues staying on the field because of an "all-out" style. If you're only getting 100 games from Sizemore (if we're very lucky) and 130 from Victorino (same luck), would we rather stay with Carp, Nava and Gomes to fill those 90-ish games left, or give those games to JBJ? I don't think the decision is just JBJ vs. Sizemore. 

 

[KillerBs]

If we assume nothing too dramatic happens between Bradley and Sizemore in the next 2 weeks, am I right the options are:
 
1. Send Bradley to AAA, give the starting CF job to Sizemore, spelled here and there by Victorino in CF (and Nava to RF) vs a few lefties.
2. Give JBJ the opening day CF job and try to talk Sizemore into staying in extended spring training or accepting a mL assignment, but in either case (assuming no injury of course) he could refuse it, collect the 750K from the Sox and sign on as a FA with any other team. 
3. Keep both and deal Carp or Nava.
 
It seems to me #1 is the clearly the most likely at this stage, largely because I doubt the Sox would risk losing Sizemore for nothing or risk dealing Carp/Nava for less than what they are worth on the speculative hope that Sizemore is still any good.
 
As for giving the job to Sizemore, I cannot help but worry about the effect of this demotion on Bradley's development, though admittedly this is impossible to measure. If it is accepted that there is some signficant risk that a demotion seriously hinders Bradley's development into our star CF of the future, it is a helluva risk to run for the Sizemore lottery ticket. Again it is impossible to really say, but I would have thought Bradley would have been best served by the Sox saying to him: you are our starting CF, go play defense and bat 8th or 9th and we will check in at the all-star break on how you are doing.
 
I also worry that once the decision is made to give Sizemore the CF job, unless Sizemore craters completely or Bradley hits .450 in PAW, the Sizemore experiment will drift along into for 50 games at the least.  If Sizemore cant play more than 5 times/week doesn't that commit us to Nava in RF 2x/week, including especially vs LHPers? How much a better hitter does Sizemore need to be than Bradley to make up for what has to be a signficant defensive shortfall in CF? How likely is it that Sizemore is that much a better hitter than Bradley? 
 
So despite Grady's fine day in FLA, I remain less than enthusiastic.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

My concern about Sizemore is almost as pronounced for Victorino.  He also has issues staying on the field because of an "all-out" style. If you're only getting 100 games from Sizemore (if we're very lucky) and 130 from Victorino (same luck), would we rather stay with Carp, Nava and Gomes to fill those 90-ish games left, or give those games to JBJ? I don't think the decision is just JBJ vs. Sizemore. 

 
Really depends on the timing and overlap of injuries and if the missed time are routine/extra days off or rather DL stints.
 
If Victoino and Sizemore are both on the active roster but one needs a day off, I'd be fine with an OF of either Gomes/Carp LF, Sizemore CF, Nava RF... or Gomes/Nava LF, Victorino CF, Nava RF.
 
If both are banged up, you could go with Carp LF, Nava CF, Gomes RF - but I would not do that for anymore than 1-2 games.
 
Obviously, if one goes on the DL, JBJ should immediately be called up.

 

[Puffy]

My concern about Sizemore is almost as pronounced for Victorino.  He also has issues staying on the field because of an "all-out" style. If you're only getting 100 games from Sizemore (if we're very lucky) and 130 from Victorino (same luck), would we rather stay with Carp, Nava and Gomes to fill those 90-ish games left, or give those games to JBJ? I don't think the decision is just JBJ vs. Sizemore. 

 
Not to mention injury risk to Napoli and, to some extent, Ortiz. Carp would be one of the primary alternatives at 1B and DH as well in the event of injury.

 

[Hoplite]

Silly question - are there any rules regarding what players can and can't be sent to extended Spring Training? Is there anything that would stop teams from storing major league players there for roster reasons?

 

[OilCanMDS]

Another decent comp, and a recent one, is Josh Hamilton.  He missed three seasons of ball prior to returning and playing at a high level.  His issues weren't similar to Grady's, but I believe there were similar durability questions because of the toll the drug use put on Hamilton's body.  Grady has a much better track record than Hamilton did prior to his return as well.  Hamilton had not even made it out of Tampa's farm system when his absence began.  

 

[Sampo Gida]

JBJ is the CF of the future.  Sizemore is here on a 1 yr deal with serious durability concerns.  If the Red Sox feel JBJ is ready for the big show, it seems to me he should start the season in CF.  Sizemore has a May 1 optout,  so whats the harm in seeing him play every day at Pawtucket before handing him the job as starting CF'er.  If JBJ has a miserable April the decision to do so is easier, especially if Sizemore has a good April, and JBJ can't say he did not get a shot.  If JBJ plays well in April, then maybe you still call up Sizemore as a backup and then decide what to do with Nava and Carp

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Silly question - are there any rules regarding what players can and can't be sent to extended Spring Training? Is there anything that would stop teams from storing major league players there for roster reasons?

 
The rules governing extended Spring Training are the same that govern any DL stint.  In order to participate in live games, one has to be put on a rehab assignment.  Once a player is on a rehab assignment, he can only play for 20 days (for position players) before he must either be activated from the DL or placed back on the DL for at least a week.  So the biggest thing preventing teams from stashing players in extended spring is that they can't really keep them game-ready to the extent that they can be instantly brought up when a need arises.  Unless they know that they'll need him on X date, all he can do is take batting practice, shag flies, and maybe stand in the box for some simulated games.  That's not going to keep him up to game speed.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

JBJ is the CF of the future.  Sizemore is here on a 1 yr deal with serious durability concerns.  If the Red Sox feel JBJ is ready for the big show, it seems to me he should start the season in CF.  Sizemore has a May 1 optout,  so whats the harm in seeing him play every day at Pawtucket before handing him the job as starting CF'er.  If JBJ has a miserable April the decision to do so is easier, especially if Sizemore has a good April, and JBJ can't say he did not get a shot.  If JBJ plays well in April, then maybe you still call up Sizemore as a backup and then decide what to do with Nava and Carp

 
Sizemore does not have an opt-out and he can not be sent to Pawtucket (at least not without a DL stint).  He's signed to a major league contract and he's out of options.  That means they have three options for him come March 31: he makes the 25-man roster, he goes on the DL, or he's traded/released.  That's it.
 
Sizemore also has roster bonuses built into his contract.  He gets $250K for making the Opening Day roster and another $250K for each milestone he achieves for time spent on the big league roster (30, 60, 90, 120, 150 days).  With a base salary of only $750K, he's going to want to earn as many of those bonuses as he can, so I don't see him being all that eager to be "stashed" if he's healthy and able to play.

 

[Mike F]

JBJ is the CF of the future.  Sizemore is here on a 1 yr deal with serious durability concerns.  If the Red Sox feel JBJ is ready for the big show, it seems to me he should start the season in CF.  Sizemore has a May 1 optout,  so whats the harm in seeing him play every day at Pawtucket before handing him the job as starting CF'er.  If JBJ has a miserable April the decision to do so is easier, especially if Sizemore has a good April, and JBJ can't say he did not get a shot.  If JBJ plays well in April, then maybe you still call up Sizemore as a backup and then decide what to do with Nava and Carp

IIRC Sizemore signed a ML contract. He would need options/his permission to be "sent" to Paw.
XST and a rehab stint also works. If Sox want him in AAA that's the route.

 

[Hoplite]

The rules governing extended Spring Training are the same that govern any DL stint.  In order to participate in live games, one has to be put on a rehab assignment.  Once a player is on a rehab assignment, he can only play for 20 days (for position players) before he must either be activated from the DL or placed back on the DL for at least a week.  So the biggest thing preventing teams from stashing players in extended spring is that they can't really keep them game-ready to the extent that they can be instantly brought up when a need arises.  Unless they know that they'll need him on X date, all he can do is take batting practice, shag flies, and maybe stand in the box for some simulated games.  That's not going to keep him up to game speed.

 
So it's the same as a DL stint, but the player doesn't need to have an injury? Or would the team have to fake an injury in this scenario?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
So it's the same as a DL stint, but the player doesn't need to have an injury? Or would the team have to fake an injury in this scenario?

 
It's not the same as a DL stint, it IS a DL stint.  The player has to be injured (or complicit in faking an "injury").  But as I pointed out, with roster bonuses in his contract, it's not in Sizemore's personal best interest to go along with any fake injury scenarios that will cost him significant money.  Just by doing an extended spring stint, he's likely sacrificing $500K (the opening day bonus and probably the bonus for spending 150 days on the roster).  Can't see it happening.

 

[Plympton91]

Sizemore is quite obviously as healthy right now as he's ever going to be. He's showing skills that would be valued by any number of less well stocked teams. What incentive does he have to play along with the Red Sox desire to perpetuate a farcical DL trip and XST purgatory rather than demand they play him or release him?

Also, given that no matter how he looks on March 30 , he could be done for the season on April 1st, explain to me the logic of giving up talent to make space on the roster rather than stashing Bradley 60 miles away in Pawtucket? Explain to me why a team that has routinely kept inferior relievers even at one point 13 pitchers to avoid giving up depth would suddenly reverse course for a guy that hasn't played at all in 2 years or regularly in 5 and a guy who didn't crack the Mendoza line in his first taste of the majors last season?

Either Bradley is going to Pawtucket or Sizemore gets DFA'ed. Bank on it.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Sizemore is quite obviously as healthy right now as he's ever going to be. He's showing skills that would be valued by any number of less well stocked teams. What incentive does he have to play along with the Red Sox desire to perpetuate a farcical DL trip and XST purgatory rather than demand they play him or release him?

Maybe because he's happy that Dan Dyrek's program has been able to get him healthy for the first time in years and he doesn't want to go away from the one program that's finally worked for him? Dyrek's program was a big reason he signed with Boston in the first place.
 
If Dyrek tells him that it would really benefit him to spend a few more weeks in extended spring training to develop more endurance to play the long season, Sizemore is going to tell him to screw off and demand his release? Maybe, now that he's looked good in spring training for a couple of weeks, but it might not be the smartest long term decision for him. If he demands his release and goes to another team and then has a setback, he won't have Dyrek's knowledge and program to fall back on. 
 
Who knows what an athlete might do in any situation, but there is some incentive for him to be patient and stick with the Red Sox.
 
Anyway, Sizemore is not going to be released before the season. He'll either make the roster or go on the DL to start the season.

 

[koufax37]

3. Keep both and deal Carp or Nava.
 
 
...
 
 
So despite Grady's fine day in FLA, I remain less than enthusiastic.

 
Sell high on Carp.  A good player, but his roster WADN (wins above Daniel Nava) value is not very much, and his perceived value is at a high point.  Sizemore is winning the starting position on his play and background and current health.  JBJ has real defensive substitute and rest Victorino and pinch running and other value and can get enough ABs to not hurt his development, especially compared to the psychological setback getting sent down for a job that seemed to be his.
 
I also think that with Victorino giving up switch hitting, there will be certain RHP he might have less value against, and can be given selective days off against them in addition to any injury time off.  And if we think Sizemore might be an 100-120 game outfielder until he demonstrates more, I really like JBJ as the 5th outfielder who will get much more time than a traditional 5th outfielder especially with Gomes getting some DH time, Nava getting some 1B time, etc.

 

[jhogan88]

The Sizemore Comeback makes for a nice feel-good story. After all those obstacles, ole' Grady is actually out there, on a baseball field, crashing into walls, giving the franchise kid a run for his money...

Perfect time to trade him.

 

[cptcarl]

I think (OK, intuit more than think) that the RS FO plans to support JBJ and give him every chance to succeed.  It also seems that Sizemore is making the roster (if not starting), and an 11 pitcher staff would be a departure from recent practice.  That leaves Carp as the odd man out unfortunately, barring an injury.  I hope we get some value for him -- value we can stash in Portland.

 

[Rice4HOF]

The Sizemore Comeback makes for a nice feel-good story. After all those obstacles, ole' Grady is actually out there, on a baseball field, crashing into walls, giving the franchise kid a run for his money...

Perfect time to trade him.

Bingo. As soon as I saw the 3 options above my immediate thought was what about #4 - trade Sizemore? We'd essentially be getting something for free.

I want JBJ starting the season on the 25. Also don't want to trade Carp as he's Napoli/Ortiz insurance. What about selling high on Nava??

 

[Sampo Gida]

 
Sizemore does not have an opt-out and he can not be sent to Pawtucket (at least not without a DL stint).  He's signed to a major league contract and he's out of options.  That means they have three options for him come March 31: he makes the 25-man roster, he goes on the DL, or he's traded/released.  That's it.
 
Sizemore also has roster bonuses built into his contract.  He gets $250K for making the Opening Day roster and another $250K for each milestone he achieves for time spent on the big league roster (30, 60, 90, 120, 150 days).  With a base salary of only $750K, he's going to want to earn as many of those bonuses as he can, so I don't see him being all that eager to be "stashed" if he's healthy and able to play.

 
Ok, my bad. I could have sworn I read somewhere that he did but must have mixed it up with someone else. 

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Somewhere between a bust and Comeback Player of the Year

 

[joe dokes]

Somewhere between a bust and Comeback Player of the Year

 
 
To be fair, there aren't too many players whose not-irrational-fanboy upside is close to all-star performance (based on what he has done in the past), but whose rational-not-sky-is-falling downside is season-long total incapacitation, as opposed to the nagging, frustrating, he'll-miss-40-games-but-still-be-worth-it downside we usually see.  There are 3 True Outcomes players.  Sizemore is more of a Zero Sum Game player.
 
 
 
A comp in that "he'll burn out, rather than fade away" style  might be a pitcher, Gary Nolan.  He was one of several fireballers the Reds had in the early 70s.  Him, Gullett, Wayne Simpson, Milt Wilcox. I think they all got hurt well before they were 25. After Nolan missed most of his age 25-26  seasons, he had two really good seasons at 27 and 28, then his arm exploded for he last time and he was done at 29.

 

[IdiotKicker]

If we're really so concerned about injury, then why wouldn't you start Sizemore in CF at the beginning of the year, and use JBJ if/when he ends up getting injured?  This is the option with the least amount of question marks that gives you the most flexibility going forward.  We've got 2000 ABs for our OF over the course of the season.  With the guys we have, they aren't going to all make it through unscathed.  JBJ spending a season going between Pawtucket and Boston while racking up 150-250 ABs in the majors isn't the worst thing in the world.  The thought that it would hurt him developmentally isn't something I buy, especially when you look at the track record of guys who have done this in the Boston system like Youk or even Ellsbury who didn't get much time in 2007 until the end of the season and then started throughout the playoffs.  It's a long season.  Keep the depth you have.

 

[Plympton91]

Maybe because he's happy that Dan Dyrek's program has been able to get him healthy for the first time in years and he doesn't want to go away from the one program that's finally worked for him? Dyrek's program was a big reason he signed with Boston in the first place.
 
If Dyrek tells him that it would really benefit him to spend a few more weeks in extended spring training to develop more endurance to play the long season, Sizemore is going to tell him to screw off and demand his release? Maybe, now that he's looked good in spring training for a couple of weeks, but it might not be the smartest long term decision for him. If he demands his release and goes to another team and then has a setback, he won't have Dyrek's knowledge and program to fall back on.
 
Who knows what an athlete might do in any situation, but there is some incentive for him to be patient and stick with the Red Sox.
 
Anyway, Sizemore is not going to be released before the season. He'll either make the roster or go on the DL to start the season.

 
You can't DL a healthy player without their permission.  He's playing nearly everyday now and hitting .400; unless he actually does get hurt or at a minimum they stop playing him in spring training games with a week to go, the "stash him on the DL" isn't going to work.  But, favorite trainer or not, Sizemore agreeing to go on the DL at the end of spring training will just reinforce the impression of every other team in baseball that he's too fragile to hold up to even a spring training workload, and potentially cost him a lot more money.   It makes zero sense for a healthy and productive Sizemore to agree to Boston's roster gimmicks.  Especially when the very sensible option of sending down JBJ, who in this scenario Sizemore has beaten out, is available to them. 

 

[lexrageorge]

What evidence is there that Sizemore would refuse to report to an extended spring training?  He's been out of baseball for a couple of years, and I have to believe he would be thrilled to have such an opportunity, despite his strong spring.  
 
I'll agree that sending down JBJ makes the most sense if Sizemore is indeed deemed healthy enough to play 5 days a week in April.  I'm in the camp that Bradley could use the at bats in AAA; the board seems to have forgotten that the majority opinion this time last year is that JBJ should start the season in AA.  
 
Carp is this year's Mauro Gomez; he's a useful utility player, but it's not the end of the world if he's traded early in the season.  If he sticks around he may have some marginal trade value at the deadline.  
 
As for trading Nava, the time to do that is later in the season; I'm not sure we'd be selling high at this point.  But I doubt very much he's going anywhere. 

 

[Puffy]

 
You can't DL a healthy player without their permission.  He's playing nearly everyday now and hitting .400; unless he actually does get hurt or at a minimum they stop playing him in spring training games with a week to go, the "stash him on the DL" isn't going to work.  But, favorite trainer or not, Sizemore agreeing to go on the DL at the end of spring training will just reinforce the impression of every other team in baseball that he's too fragile to hold up to even a spring training workload, and potentially cost him a lot more money.   It makes zero sense for a healthy and productive Sizemore to agree to Boston's roster gimmicks.  Especially when the very sensible option of sending down JBJ, who in this scenario Sizemore has beaten out, is available to them. 

 
I agree.  If Sizemore keeps this up, he's won the CF job.  I don't think it hurts to start JBJ in Pawtucket - there's bound to be an injury or two that will probably render the roster crunch moot sooner rather than later.  If they get a few months into the season and everyone is playing great and JBJ is knocking on the door, they can make a trade to address an area of weakness (and we don't know yet what that will be).  Under that scenario, they can save whatever trade chip (Carp, Nava, etc) for a specific area of need, rather than just liquidate someone to make room for Sizemore. 

 

[Rasputin]

We don't need to go through any shenanigans to keep all the talent. If we're keeping JBJ and Sizemore on the big club, how much is Nava really going to play?

He has an option. We send him down and play an outfield of Sizemore, Bradley, Victorino with Gomes in left when any of them need a day off and we get to keep Carp.

It lets you keep all the talent, manage Sizemore's playing time on a daily basis, and put the most talent on the field.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I'd rather not send down one of the more reliable hitters on the roster.
 
I think JBJ starts in AAA and I think that's the best way to approach it.

 

[Rasputin]

I'd rather not send down one of the more reliable hitters on the roster.
 
I think JBJ starts in AAA and I think that's the best way to approach it.

Daniel Nava is one of the most reliable hitters on the roster now? A guy with a huge platoon split?

 

[RIrooter09]

Daniel Nava is one of the most reliable hitters on the roster now? A guy with a huge platoon split?

 
Against RHP yes.  JBJ hasn't proven that he can hit ML pitching period. 

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Daniel Nava is one of the most reliable hitters on the roster now? A guy with a huge platoon split?

Its tough to mind a platoon split when it involves a .322/.411/.484 slash against RHP. You simply can't put that guy in AAA. It would be beyond moronic.

 

[benhogan]

Daniel Nava is one of the most reliable hitters on the roster now? A guy with a huge platoon split?

Did Nava not sign an autograph for you one time?  Your disdain for Nava is incessant, its been like a broken record all off-season.
 
When Nava faced RHP in 2013, he was one of the top 5 hitting LF in MLB.  When a LHP starts, Gomes plays LF.
 
Sox pay Nava MLB min, and control him for the next 3 years. Grady makes more and Sox have no control after this season.  They are the same age.
 
Not sure why you keep banging the drum on Sizemore replacing Nava in LF, how many games has Grady played in LF this pre-season?

 

[Just a bit outside]

This might be the answer.
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/35129/sox-to-take-a-look-at-nava-in-center-as-potential-backup
 

 
The only reason the Red Sox would want to see Nava in center is if they intend to open the season with Grady Sizemore in center field while keeping Shane Victorino in right field as much as possible. That creates the need for another outfielder who can spell Sizemore in center. Rookie Jackie Bradley Jr. is an obvious candidate, of course, although if Sizemore wins the everyday job, there is strong sentiment in the Sox organization that Bradley would be better served to play on a daily basis in Triple-A Pawtucket.

 

[jacklamabe65]

Vic seems still very beaten up. Does it make sense to disable him - let him fully recover - have Grady play center and Jackie in right - until Shane is entirely ready to play full-tilt?

 

[Rasputin]

Against RHP yes.  JBJ hasn't proven that he can hit ML pitching period. 

And he's going to do that in AAA how?

 

[RIrooter09]

And he's going to do that in AAA how?

He doesn't need to at this point. That can wait until we see what Sizemore has left.

 

[Rasputin]

Its tough to mind a platoon split when it involves a .322/.411/.484 slash against RHP. You simply can't put that guy in AAA. It would be beyond moronic.

Yes, sending down the thirty year old who has one full season in the bigs in favor of keeping the center fielder of the future is moronic.

And to the esteemed Mr Hogan, there is no disdain. I just think Nava is a useful player but he's probably going to be out of the game in a few years while Bradley is part of the next core of guys who are going to keep us competitive for the next ten years.

The team clearly doesn't want Victorino playing center if they can help it, nobody can say they trust Sizemore to play every day and the thought of Nava playing center should scare you.

We should be playing Bradley in CF every day until he proves he can't do it and if that means Nava spend some time in AAA, it's no big deal.

 

[czar]

Not to beat the arb clock drum, but how long would JBJ need to play in AAA to get another Sox year of control? 6 weeks or so, right?
 
Unless the team determines Vic can't spell Sizemore 2-3 days a week for the first month, isn't the optimal solution to keep Sizemore up until the inevitable injury. JBJ will have gotten consistent ABs in AAA before that happens and also push his control status back another season if he stays down long enough. That also gives the team time to find a suitor for Carp, while allowing Nava to be pseudo-platooned with Gomes.
 
I know the control status thing was massively overplayed last year and is less of a concern this year (with Bradley another year older and Ellsbury no longer on the roster), but it's still an added benefit to an already (seemingly) obvious chain of events.
 
Win-win-win-win?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Vic seems still very beaten up. Does it make sense to disable him - let him fully recover - have Grady play center and Jackie in right - until Shane is entirely ready to play full-tilt?

 
Nitting the pick, but wouldn't you put Sizemore in right and Bradley in left?  I'm pretty sure Bradley is the better defensive center fielder.  I suppose you could argue that Sizemore in right is more likely to get hurt on a play since he'll be chasing more slicing/hooking shots toward the corner and would have to play more balls at or just over the wall/bullpen, but strictly form a "best production on the field" standpoint, I'd swap them.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Yes, sending down the thirty year old who has one full season in the bigs in favor of keeping the center fielder of the future is moronic.

And to the esteemed Mr Hogan, there is no disdain. I just think Nava is a useful player but he's probably going to be out of the game in a few years while Bradley is part of the next core of guys who are going to keep us competitive for the next ten years.

The team clearly doesn't want Victorino playing center if they can help it, nobody can say they trust Sizemore to play every day and the thought of Nava playing center should scare you.

We should be playing Bradley in CF every day until he proves he can't do it and if that means Nava spend some time in AAA, it's no big deal.

You use interesting terms like "30 year old" and "CF of the future" to try to mask the only thing that's important... production. JBJ isn't going to be as prosuctive as Nava. It is literally unreal for you to talk about a 30 year old guy who has one productive year (A pretty incredible one btw) and announce him as out of baseball in a few years when you are proposing that he be sent down for a 31 year old that has been out of baseball for multiple years.

Daniel Nava is arguably the second best hitter on this team against RHP, and at the very least is a reliable OBP guy at the top of the order.

Sending him down, it just isn't going to happened, nor should it.

 

[Rasputin]

You use interesting terms like "30 year old" and "CF of the future" to try to mask the only thing that's important... production. JBJ isn't going to be as prosuctive as Nava. It is literally unreal for you to talk about a 30 year old guy who has one productive year (A pretty incredible one btw) and announce him as out of baseball in a few years when you are proposing that he be sent down for a 31 year old that has been out of baseball for multiple years.

Daniel Nava is arguably the second best hitter on this team against RHP, and at the very least is a reliable OBP guy at the top of the order.

Sending him down, it just isn't going to happened, nor should it.

You seem to have a strange definition of either literally or real and possibly both because I have,in reality suggested exactly that.

Nava didn't have an at bat in the majors until he was 27. Guys like that don't have long careers. By 27, Sizemore had been to three all star games. If he can stay healthy--and I grant, that's a big if--he is much more likely to have a great season. 2013 is almost certainly the best season Nava will ever have and I say this not because I don't like him, but because he is what he is.

 

[iayork]

Nava didn't have an at bat in the majors until he was 27. Guys like that don't have long careers.
 

 
Some do.  
 
Here are some charts showing seasons with at least 150 AB, for players since 1960 who made their debut at age 27 or more, and who (like Nava) had at least three seasons with > 150 AB (more detail here and here). 
 
I'm not pretending there's any major insight here, I was just playing around with some tools and the Lahman database. But for the little it's worth, it looks like Nava has a decent chance of having several more fairly productive years, but isn't likely to have a really long or spectacular career.
(Collapsed for size)

Spoiler

 
Edit to address nvalvo's point  about excluding Japanese players.  This is what it looks like with Fukudome, Ichiro, Iguchi, Iwamura, Johjima, Matsui, Matsui, and Taguchi excluded.  A little surprisingly, it ends up making essentially no difference.

Spoiler

 

[nvalvo]

iayork's numbers are interesting, but there are caveats.
 
Maybe this should go without saying. Hideki Matsui or Ichiro Suzuki (and also Iguchi, Johjima, Taguchi, Fukudome, Iwamura) are poor comps for Nava for obvious reasons (in that they didn't really "debut" at 27 in the sense we mean), and by the later years, those guys are a meaningful portion of the sample, which gets down below 15 players pretty fast. 
 
It's sort of fun to mentally recalibrate how these numbers would look without Matsui, in particular. 

 

[pokey_reese]

While it isn't comparable to the Japanese leagues, it isn't like Nava hadn't picked up a baseball in his life.  He played college and semi-pro ball during his twenties, so he isn't like a prospect that had been a football guy until he was drafted to play baseball.
 
That said, the issue here is one of long-term versus win-now.  There are three potential combinations here:
 
JBJ + Nava
Sizemore + Nava
JBJ + Sizemore
 
Nava is the ONLY one of these players who has demonstrated an ability to hit well against major league pitching in the last few years.  And not just well, but very well, even including his platoon split.  Giving JBJ the reps at the major league level to aid in his development is a long-term play at the expense of the short term production of the team, unless you think that he can put up an OBP of at least .350-.375 immediately.
 
Now, I am obviously terrified of Nava in CF, but let's be honest here, this would probably be for a few innings as an emergency solution at most.  If Victorino or Sizemore has any sort of injury that is going to last more than a day or two, you just call up JBJ.
 
Ideally, Sizemore will go to XST and rehab, giving us a few weeks to see if JBJ can handle the bat while keeping Nava up, but I think that starting the season with Nava in the minors would be a huge mistake, and not one the Sox are likely to make.

 

[Rovin Romine]

While it isn't comparable to the Japanese leagues, it isn't like Nava hadn't picked up a baseball in his life.  He played college and semi-pro ball during his twenties, so he isn't like a prospect that had been a football guy until he was drafted to play baseball.
 
That said, the issue here is one of long-term versus win-now.  There are three potential combinations here:
 
JBJ + Nava
Sizemore + Nava
JBJ + Sizemore
 
Nava is the ONLY one of these players who has demonstrated an ability to hit well against major league pitching in the last few years.  And not just well, but very well, even including his platoon split.  Giving JBJ the reps at the major league level to aid in his development is a long-term play at the expense of the short term production of the team, unless you think that he can put up an OBP of at least .350-.375 immediately.
 
Now, I am obviously terrified of Nava in CF, but let's be honest here, this would probably be for a few innings as an emergency solution at most.  If Victorino or Sizemore has any sort of injury that is going to last more than a day or two, you just call up JBJ.
 
Ideally, Sizemore will go to XST and rehab, giving us a few weeks to see if JBJ can handle the bat while keeping Nava up, but I think that starting the season with Nava in the minors would be a huge mistake, and not one the Sox are likely to make.

 
Beyond that, I'm sure that the Sox have some in-house assessment of how Fenway's dimensions impact defensive value.  If LF really does allow you to play a less defensively robust outfielder, Nava is a shoe in, base on his offensive ability against right handed pitching.  (Although it's worth noting the Sox played Nava 69 games in RF and 63 games in LF last year, so they probably feel he's not a complete butcher in RF.)

 

[JakeRae]

Even if the Red Sox wanted to option Nava, I do not think he would pass through OAW. The general assumption is that no one will put in OAW claims, but Nava is an established MLB player after last year and it would be pretty easy for other teams to decide that he falls outside the agreement. 
 
The other thing to bear in mind is that the organization clearly cares about clubhouse chemistry and player happiness. Optioning Nava would likely piss off the entire team. He has earned his place in MLB and, if the Red Sox decide that they don't have space on the roster for him the correct thing to do is trade him. Sometimes, the best move on paper is not the best move in reality.
 
The obvious move to make is to start the season with Sizemore but to be aggressive with DL stints for banged up OFers. If we are talking about development, there is absolutely no reason to think that after fewer than 400 PA at AAA and a very good but not utterly dominant performance there, Bradley cannot continue to progress as a hitter at that level. It is almost certainly more important to his development that he get regular at bats than that the at bats he does get are against MLB pitching. Aggressive DL usage will allow the team to address the lack of CF/RF depth by bringing up Bradley for several stretches during the year and will also give him a lower-pressure transition to MLB. And, to clarify, what I mean by aggressive DL usage is DLing the player who might be able to come back in 4 or 5 days or who has nagging injuries that will cause them to miss half the games for a week or two instead of asking them to play through it. This strategy would also have the added benefit of a, likely, healthier roster in the second half of the season. 

 

[Reverend]

 
Beyond that, I'm sure that the Sox have some in-house assessment of how Fenway's dimensions impact defensive value.  If LF really does allow you to play a less defensively robust outfielder, Nava is a shoe in, base on his offensive ability against right handed pitching.  (Although it's worth noting the Sox played Nava 69 games in RF and 63 games in LF last year, so they probably feel he's not a complete butcher in RF.)

 
FWIW, only 39 of those games in right field were at Fenway. Pretty evenly distributed throughout the year, though. 

 

[MalzoneExpress]

Why are we discussing the possibility of sending Nava to the minors? That is a not happening. Bill James lists Nava as the 5th best left fielder right now. The "shredder" has him as the 7th best left fielder right now. He would NEVER make it though OAW. There is a better chance Nava is traded than he is optioned to the Bucket, and I don't think the Sox are looking to trade the 5th best left fielder in MLB.
 
If Sizemore is ready for full time duty on March 30th, then JBJ starts the year in AAA. Otherwise, Sizemore goes on the DL and gets rehab work until he is ready. Nava is not a great defensive outfielder, but he has worked hard to become good enough defensively that the Sox were comfortable playing him in right field for 69 games last year. Sizemore and Victorino will both have to go down before you wind up with a Gomes -- Nava -- Carp outfield. And that would only be for the rest of that game because JBJ would be on his way before the final pitch. That's how I see it anyway.

 

[nvalvo]

While it isn't comparable to the Japanese leagues, it isn't like Nava hadn't picked up a baseball in his life.  He played college and semi-pro ball during his twenties, so he isn't like a prospect that had been a football guy until he was drafted to play baseball.

 
Nava's biography is not the point.
 
The point is that Hideki Matsui, had he been born to a hypothetical family of Japanese-American Matsuis living in Claremont, California, would have been drafted by the Giants out of Cal State Fullerton at 20, ten picks after the Sox took Nomar, and a year after real-life Matsui had already hit eleven homers in a very promising half-season for the other Giants. He would have been the standout prospect on the Bizarro Fresno Grizzlies at 22 — real-life Matsui's fourth and breakout season in NBP — arriving in the majors for a September debut, and taken over full time in LF the next season, 1997. The Giants would have shifted Barry Bonds to right field, where his greater defensive responsibilities would have prevented him from bulking up quite so much. Matsui would have displaced a poor season by Glenallen Hill in the Giants OF, and it would have been San Francisco, not Florida in the 1997 WS against the Tribe... 
 
And Matsui would not be in this sample of players with careers comparable to Nava.
 
But I digress. The point is that while we all appreciate Nava's demonstrated on base skills, he's pretty much in uncharted territory as far as being as good as he's been while debuting so late. It's not irrational to suspect that his best comp is actually somebody like F.P. Santangelo, which would not bode well. This is the source of Rasputin's trepidation about Nava's long-term prospects.