ranking the afc teams 1-16 after 4 weeks

[j-man]

i did this last year and it was fun
1 KC 3-1 they only lose to det and when u play KC u play the refs too playoff odds 99%
2 BUFF great team i just have doubs about them in playoff 3-1 99%
3 Mia 3-1 def is overreted off is like the 99 rams 95%
4 balt 3-1 should win the north but can Lamar win a big game in jan 90%
5 hou 2-2 could rule the afc in 25 40%
6 jax i dont trust their coach in a big game 2-2 50%
7 LAC 2-2 great talent but all time dumb coach 60%%
8 cle 2-2 their weakness is coach qb 35%
9 pitt 2-2 they have no qb great def but they sceram 9-8 45%
10 tenn 2-2 their best player is their coach 40%
11 ciny 1-3 has to be better than this 50%
12 indy 2-2 beat hou bait couild be real good in 24 25%
13 NE 1-3 u guys lack speed on off and now your def its thin 10%
14 NYJ if they lose next week they couild only be a 3-win team 1-3 3%
15 Den yes den lost to vegas but i ex jimmy to miss more time as the season goes likey 5-7 wins for den 1-3 1%
16 vegas if they lose the next 2 games they might also only win 3 games 1-3 1%

 

[Oil Can Dan]

Buf
Bal
KC
Mia
NYJ/Hou tie

 

[Ale Xander]

Buffalo
Baltimore
Miami
KC

Jax
Tenn
Lac
Pitt
Cle
Cincy
Indy
Hou
NYJ
LV
Den
NEP

 

[GPO Man]

DEN and LV are better than the Patriots. NE and NYJ are tied for the worst teams in the AFC.

 

[Jinhocho]

1. KC
2. Buffalo
3. Baltimore
4. Miami

5. Cleveland
6. Cincy (tie)
6. Jax (tie)
8.. LAC
9. Tenn

Below this tier is one in which it is a bunch of flawed teams

10. Indy
11. NEP (tie)
11. Pitt (tie)
13. LV
14. Hou
15. Jets
16. Den

I think Indy is better than people are giving credit and the Pats will be ok (relative to this clump of bad teams) due to coaching and guys coming back. Pitt looks to me in real trouble.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Guys coming back? We just lost Judon and Gonzalez. Guess it doesn’t matter if you are in that last tier but this Patriots team has been really bad and there’s no indication that things should get much better.

 

[BaseballJones]

Jack Jones and Jonathan Jones coming back may (?) be able to offset the loss of Gonzalez. I mean when they’re right, the Jones boys are both really good corners.

 

[Jinhocho]

Guys coming back? We just lost Judon and Gonzalez. Guess it doesn’t matter if you are in that last tier but this Patriots team has been really bad and there’s no indication that things should get much better.

A number of guys are injured and due back at some point. The help in the secondary and hopefully the Oline (along with some time to gel) could make a big difference in pass protection and running the back. Best case, if all goes right, they are right where we thought they would be preseason. Realistically, they are now prob at best a 8 win team.

 

[Mooch]

A number of guys are injured and due back at some point. The help in the secondary and hopefully the Oline (along with some time to gel) could make a big difference in pass protection and running the back. Best case, if all goes right, they are right where we thought they would be preseason. Realistically, they are now prob at best a 8 win team.

I think that's wildly optimistic. The offensive line/QB combination looks like a bottom 3 group in the league. I don't think that the Pats can put up 20 points against anyone in the league right now. With the injuries on defense, this looks like a 4-5 win team at best.

 

[BaseballJones]

I think that's wildly optimistic. The offensive line/QB combination looks like a bottom 3 group in the league. I don't think that the Pats can put up 20 points against anyone in the league right now. With the injuries on defense, this looks like a 4-5 win team at best.

Well the bright side of that would at least be a very high draft pick, which NE has never had under BB.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Well the bright side of that would at least be a very high draft pick, which NE has never had under BB.

It's the only one, but I'd say Seymour qualifies.

 

[j-man]

1 KC
2 MIA
Tier 1

3 Jax
4 buff
5 cle
6 indy
7 lac
tier 2
8 balt
9hou
10 pitt
11 ciny
tier 3
12 nyj
13 tenn
14 vegas
15 den
16 ne
tier 4

 

[BenjaminDooley]

Your assessment of the NFL teams is interesting. It's still early in the season, and many factors can affect outcomes. Let's see how it all plays out.

 

[sodenj5]

Would have been very cool if the officials didn’t beat the Giants last night.

Buffalo’s offense has looked out of sorts since drumming Miami. The defense played fine without Milano and White, but they were also playing the Giants offense without their starting QB.

The Jets defense is scary good. They’re 3-3 and probably should have at least one more W, but Zach Wilson gave it away.

Jags have turned their season around in London.

I think KC still belongs in the top tier, but their offense doesn’t look like a juggernaut this year, and I think eventually their lack of talent outside of Mahomes and Kelce will bite them.

 

[luckiestman]

The Jets defense is scary good. They’re 3-3 and probably should have at least one more W, but Zach Wilson gave it away.

No Zach Slander, lol. Could be 5-1, schedule says 2-4. Probably should have won vs KC and lost vs Birds. Shouldn’t have beaten Bills, should have beaten Pats. It’s a weird season. Feel lucky to be 3-3 with no Rodgers.

Schedule is interesting now, they will be home for a month because they have a bye and an “away” game vs the Giants.

Major oline problem. 3rd RG, 2nd RT. If Duane Brown comes back maybe he doesn’t suck and Becton can play RT but I don’t know if they should switch Becton as he is playing ok at LT, not great but ok. Losing the rookie, Tippmann, will hurt the running game because he was blowing guys off the line.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Would have been very cool if the officials didn’t beat the Giants last night.

Buffalo’s offense has looked out of sorts since drumming Miami. The defense played fine without Milano and White, but they were also playing the Giants offense without their starting QB.

The Jets defense is scary good. They’re 3-3 and probably should have at least one more W, but Zach Wilson gave it away.

Jags have turned their season around in London.

I think KC still belongs in the top tier, but their offense doesn’t look like a juggernaut this year, and I think eventually their lack of talent outside of Mahomes and Kelce will bite them.

KC looks to be experiencing some of what we saw during the “down” Brady years. Tons of whiffs on offensive talent in the draft, trade and free agency has left them pretty thin. If Kelce goes down or is game planned out by the opposing defense, Mahomes is good enough to carry them to some wins but they’re very beatable. For as much as people (rightly) criticize the Pats failure to acquire offensive talent, the Chiefs have been almost as bad with their picks and veteran pickups. Pacheco has been solid if not good, but the rest of their attempts to replenish the offense have been flops.

 

[sodenj5]

KC looks to be experiencing some of what we saw during the “down” Brady years. Tons of whiffs on offensive talent in the draft, trade and free agency has left them pretty thin. If Kelce goes down or is game planned out by the opposing defense, Mahomes is good enough to carry them to some wins but they’re very beatable. For as much as people (rightly) criticize the Pats failure to acquire offensive talent, the Chiefs have been almost as bad with their picks and veteran pickups. Pacheco has been solid if not good, but the rest of their attempts to replenish the offense have been flops.

I was actually thinking this exact same thing today where it was basically Gronk and Brady willing the Patriots to that final ring. It’s Mahomes and Kelce. They have a good offensive line still, but the other skill position guys aren’t very good.

 

[luckiestman]

I was actually thinking this exact same thing today where it was basically Gronk and Brady willing the Patriots to that final ring. It’s Mahomes and Kelce. They have a good offensive line still, but the other skill position guys aren’t very good.

I think Pacheco is good. It is the receivers where they are lacking

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think Pacheco is good. It is the receivers where they are lacking

I think Pacheco is in the very big tier of RBs who don't really matter (Rham is there too), there are very few RBs who truly matter, talent at the position for the Pacheco level is DEEP, and line/coaching make more of a differentiator than skill for those guys usually.

 

[pdaj]

Let's take a stab at updating these rankings!

SB Contenders:

1 MIA (Prediction: Dolphins win out)
2 BAL (Prediction: Baltimore loses to SF/MIA)
3 BUF
4 CLE

Darkhorse Candidate:

5 KC (Dropped KC from 3 to 5 (taking CLE's place) after watching their 1st half vs. the Raiders)

Playoffs = Victory

6 HOU (*W/ healthy Stroud)
7 PIT
8 INDY
9 CINCY
10 JAX (Most overrated)

Looking Ahead to '24

11 Vegas
12 NE
13 DEN
14 TEN
15 NYJ
16 LAC

Edit: KC dropped!

 

[j-man]

Let's take a stab at updating these rankings!

SB Contenders:

1 MIA (Prediction: Dolphins win out)
2 BAL (Prediction: Baltimore loses to SF/MIA)
3 BUF
4 CLE

Darkhorse Candidate:

5 KC (Dropped KC from 3 to 5 (taking CLE's place) after watching their 1st half vs. the Raiders)

Playoffs = Victory

6 HOU (*W/ healthy Stroud)
7 PIT
8 INDY
9 CINCY
10 JAX (Most overrated)

Looking Ahead to '24

11 Vegas
12 NE
13 DEN
14 TEN
15 NYJ
16 LAC

Edit: KC dropped!

nice job

AFC
1 Balt
2 mia
3 cle
4 buff

5 kc
6 hou
7 indy
8 jax


9 pitt
10 ciny
11 vegas
12 nyj

13 ne
14 den
15 lac
16 tenn

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Denver is still above NE, come on.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Cleveland’s D has looked good but is still outside the top 10 in points allowed and has played a whole lot of crappy offenses (either outright bad, or with injured or backup QB). They’ve had one impressive game (49ers). They gave up 28 and 31 to Baltimore, 36 to the Rams and 27 to the Jags


their entire schedule is a who’s who of bad or mediocre QB’s outside of a few games which makes their points per drive look great

They’re well coached and Garrett is a stud but they’re a paper tiger and it’s baffling to me that they’re getting talk as a Super Bowl contender.

not saying their D is bad, but they’re not good enough to overcome Flacco and shut down 3-4 good offenses in a row.

I can see them winning a playoff game or maybe 2 with the right matchups given how weak the AFC is outside of Miami/Baltimore but a deep run seems improbable.

 

[rodderick]

Cleveland’s D has looked good but is still outside the top 10 in points allowed and has played a whole lot of crappy offenses (either outright bad, or with injured or backup QB). They’ve had one impressive game (49ers). They gave up 28 and 31 to Baltimore, 36 to the Rams and 27 to the Jags


their entire schedule is a who’s who of bad or mediocre QB’s outside of a few games which makes their points per drive look great

They’re well coached and Garrett is a stud but they’re a paper tiger and it’s baffling to me that they’re getting talk as a Super Bowl contender.

not saying their D is bad, but they’re not good enough to overcome Flacco and shut down 3-4 good offenses in a row.

I can see them winning a playoff game or maybe 2 with the right matchups given how weak the AFC is outside of Miami/Baltimore but a deep run seems improbable.

The Browns are number 1 in defensive EPA/Play and defensive DVOA with a healthy lead over 2nd place. They've been really good on that side of the ball. Let's not forget the fact that they've been supported by a putrid offense.

 

[Ale Xander]

Cleveland’s D has looked good but is still outside the top 10 in points allowed and has played a whole lot of crappy offenses (either outright bad, or with injured or backup QB). They’ve had one impressive game (49ers). They gave up 28 and 31 to Baltimore, 36 to the Rams and 27 to the Jags


their entire schedule is a who’s who of bad or mediocre QB’s outside of a few games which makes their points per drive look great

They’re well coached and Garrett is a stud but they’re a paper tiger and it’s baffling to me that they’re getting talk as a Super Bowl contender.

not saying their D is bad, but they’re not good enough to overcome Flacco and shut down 3-4 good offenses in a row.

I can see them winning a playoff game or maybe 2 with the right matchups given how weak the AFC is outside of Miami/Baltimore but a deep run seems improbable.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1dtAVNEnkQ

 

[NextBigThing8184]

The Browns are number 1 in defensive EPA/Play and defensive DVOA with a healthy lead over 2nd place. They've been really good on that side of the ball. Let's not forget the fact that they've been supported by a putrid offense.

the putrid offense isn’t going to improve, and it’s easy to look good when you’re playing terrible QB’s.

it’s a good unit whose statistical performance is inflated from playing mostly QB’s ranging from mediocre to trash.

their EPA/play is wildly inflated from their ridiculous EPA against Arizona (58 total yards allowed just isn’t going to happen in the playoffs against a real offense). They got shredded by the Rams whose offense is closer to what they will see in the playoffs. Good offenses have generally fared decently well against them this year

 

[NextBigThing8184]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1dtAVNEnkQ

Exactly, they are what they are. A defense that has dominated some of the worst QB’s in the league and looked, on average, good not great against the types of teams they will face in a Super Bowl run.

not sure why their results against trash QB’s should be considered when projecting their ability to be a Super Bowl contender. In their games against the Ravens x2, 49ers and Rams, they haven’t looked dominant or an elite unit. Throw in the Jags and Seattle and it’s still not a picture of an elite defense, the type which can carry a Flacco offense.

Someone is going to drop 27-30 points on them in the playoffs unless they get ridiculously lucky with their matchups.

 

[j-man]

Denver is still above NE, come on.

they played and ne won in denver which used to be hard to do while denver will have a better record had bill went to zappe after dallas u are looking at 3 or 4 more wins which is why IF ne plays close in Buff and beats the jets it's 60-40 bill is back