If Atlanta (or, say, Tampa Bay!) wins the NFCS at 6-10, does the NFL consider altering their playoff format?
Ranking the NFC
- Thread starter Dgilpin
- Start date
Dgilpin said:
Re Det vs. GB, two things going on. One is that GB has their two hardest games at home, while Det has both of their toughest games on the road; I think that makes a big difference. The other is that I just think GB is the better team, although Detroit matches up well because their defensive line can give GB fits. But Detroit has been getting away with beating mediocre teams by small margins, while Green Bay has been blowing teams out. Green Bay now has five wins by 21+ points, while Detroit has one and it came in the first game of the season. As a result GB has a huge SRS advantage.
FWIW, here are the SRS rankings:
1. GB 10.7
2. AZ 5.2
3. SEA 4.6
4. PHI 3.6
5. DET 3.1
6. DAL 1.7
7. SF 1.5
CaptainLaddie said:
I don't think they'd ever do this. If division winners don't make the playoffs, whats the point of divisions?
In any case, I'm pretty sure New Orleans finishes 7-9 at worst and probably 8-8 or 9-7.
They could propose a rule change, stating that any division winner with less than a .500 record (8-8, 7-7-2) would sacrifice the #4 seed and home field advantage to the # 5 team (WC 1) if WC1 has a better record (at least .500).CaptainLaddie said:
bankshot1 said:
[SIZE=14.4444446563721px]My preferred proposal is that all division winners always make the playoffs, but division champ status is always irrelevant for seeding (so no sub-.500 threshold). Maybe division champ status could be a tiebreaker between teams with the same record. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=14.4444446563721px]But even last year, you had SF (12-4) travelling to play Green Bay in the snow (8-7-1), solely because SF was stuck in the same division with 13-3 Seattle. A few years ago 12-4 Indy had to play at 8-8 San Diego. I think that's ridiculous.[/SIZE]
If it wasn't clear, my proposal would have the sub-500 team (seed #4) make the play-offs, but in essence swap position with seed #5 if seed #5, had at least a .500 record. In this instance the #5 team (a WC) would host the #4 seed (div. winner) in the 1st round.
coremiller said:
This makes the most sense. If the two best teams are in the same division, why should the second-place team have to play three road games because some other team won an artificially created four team division? Fine that all division winners make the playoffs, but then seed them 1-6 based on record.
coremiller said:
That's about right to me actually. I think Seattle and Philly is a whoever is at home wins type affair. Both much better at home.
I think it's pretty close Seattle, Philly, Detroit. Dallas I just can't get a read on, I think they are a decent team but absolutely zero depth which could change things suddenly.
The crazy thing is that two of these are going to miss out, on schedule alone I think that could easily be Seattle and SF.
LondonSox said:
I think these are a good indicator of past performance, but I would knock both AZ and PHI down a few notches because of the QB injuries. I'd knock Philly down a bit more because I think their scoring margin has been inflated by an unsustainable frequency of defense and special teams TDs. But GB is clearly the best team right now and 2-7 are very tightly bunched, you could justify putting them in any order.
SF's schedule is not really that bad. They have the three games with SEA and AZ but two of them are at home. Their only other road game is at Oakland, and they get an awful Washington and reeling San Diego at home as well. They will probably be favored in every game except at Seattle. They need at least 4-2 (depending on what else happens for tiebreakers), but that doesn't seem unreasonable.
Their schedule is much easier than both Arizona and Seattle. Seattle has to play both AZ and SF twice plus go to Philly. AZ has Seattle twice, @SF, @ STL (who can be frisky and have already beaten SF, SEA, and DEN this year) and a home game against a very good KC team.
Don't disagree with that, I'm just not very impressed with the Niners. Seattle are the team that the schedule could crush.
The NFC West teams play each other so much thought that it's unclear that two can emerge, let alone three.
The NFC West teams play each other so much thought that it's unclear that two can emerge, let alone three.
coremiller said:
I think SF beating both Philly and Dallas (and Seattle having already lost to Dallas) is also likely to loom very large. Both those teams have very doable paths to 10-6.
Seattle just looks screwed to me. Not only is the schedule murderous, but they could finish 10-6 and still not get in under some plausible scenarios.
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I spent an inordinate amount of time looking at this yesterday, and while SF has tiebreakers over Philly and Dallas they have an issue in that, if both Seattle and SF end up 10-6 and split their H2H, there's a pretty good chance SF will likely lose the tiebreaker to Seattle on division record. But it depends a lot on how each team gets to 10-6. There are some scenarios where the division records come out the same and SF wins the tiebreaker on record in common games.
Thru Week 12 (will update with NO result)
1. Arizona 9-2
2. Dallas 8-3
3. Green Bay 8-3
4. Detroit 7-4
5. Philadelphia 8-3
6. Seattle 7-4
7. San Francisco 7-4
8. New Orleans 4-6
9. St. Louis 4-7
10. Chicago 5-6
11. Minnesota 4-7
12. Atlanta 4-7
13. Carolina 3-7-1
14. New York Giants 3-8
15. Tampa Bay 2-9
16. Washington 3-8
This conference is clearly the haves and have-nots with the Saints having the only realistic chance to become sort-of-a have.
Key Week 13 games:
Chicago @ Detroit
Philly @ Dallas
Seattle @ San Fran
(we'll know a lot by Thanksgiving night)
Arizona @ Atlanta
New England @ Green Bay
1. Arizona 9-2
2. Dallas 8-3
3. Green Bay 8-3
4. Detroit 7-4
5. Philadelphia 8-3
6. Seattle 7-4
7. San Francisco 7-4
8. New Orleans 4-6
9. St. Louis 4-7
10. Chicago 5-6
11. Minnesota 4-7
12. Atlanta 4-7
13. Carolina 3-7-1
14. New York Giants 3-8
15. Tampa Bay 2-9
16. Washington 3-8
This conference is clearly the haves and have-nots with the Saints having the only realistic chance to become sort-of-a have.
Key Week 13 games:
Chicago @ Detroit
Philly @ Dallas
Seattle @ San Fran
(we'll know a lot by Thanksgiving night)
Arizona @ Atlanta
New England @ Green Bay
After watching Detroit's offense the last couple weeks I would have to rank them last among the playoff contenders. 15 pts and 0 TDs against the Cards and Pats simply isn't good.
1. Green Bay 8-3
2. Philadelphia 8-3
3. Seattle 7-4
4. Dallas 8-3
5. Arizona 9-2
6. Detroit 7-4
7. San Francisco 7-4
8. New Orleans 4-6
2. Philadelphia 8-3
3. Seattle 7-4
4. Dallas 8-3
5. Arizona 9-2
6. Detroit 7-4
7. San Francisco 7-4
8. New Orleans 4-6
Green bay looks like a totally different team away vs at home. I'm very interested to see how they do this week vs a really good team.
Also we'll know a lot more about Dallas and Philly.
I think it's
1) Green Bay
2) Arizona - but into prove it stage
3) Philly
3) Dallas
5) Seattle
6) Detroit
7) SF
8) NFC Suck I mean south
Also we'll know a lot more about Dallas and Philly.
I think it's
1) Green Bay
2) Arizona - but into prove it stage
3) Philly
3) Dallas
5) Seattle
6) Detroit
7) SF
8) NFC Suck I mean south
Using my iterative who-beat-whom (n.b.: not necessarily how I'd rank them).
ARI 153
SF 82
SEA 80
GB 71
PHI 60
DAL 56
DET 48
STL 25
CHI -15
NYG -50
NO -53
MIN -57
CAR -75
WAS -97
ATL -114.5
TB -185
ARI 153
SF 82
SEA 80
GB 71
PHI 60
DAL 56
DET 48
STL 25
CHI -15
NYG -50
NO -53
MIN -57
CAR -75
WAS -97
ATL -114.5
TB -185
1) Green Bay
2) Seattle
3) SF
4) Dallas
5) Arizona
6) Detroit
7) Philly
My only change from last week is to flip SF and Seattle, since Seattle's victory yesterday was more impressive. But they'll settle that one on the field on Thursday. Detroit has looked bad the last two weeks but despite a good showing yesterday I still don't trust Sanchez at all against a good team.
2) Seattle
3) SF
4) Dallas
5) Arizona
6) Detroit
7) Philly
My only change from last week is to flip SF and Seattle, since Seattle's victory yesterday was more impressive. But they'll settle that one on the field on Thursday. Detroit has looked bad the last two weeks but despite a good showing yesterday I still don't trust Sanchez at all against a good team.
Green Bay
Seattle
SF
Philly
Dallas
Arizona
Detroit
Its awesome that five of these teams are going to play in three days. This has to be the best slate of Thanksgiving games of all time, right?
I love that we also get rematches of PHI-DAL and SF-SEA in two weeks, with PHI-SEA in the middle. Four teams enter, how many walk out of that three week stretch with a legitimate shot of making the playoffs?
Seattle
SF
Philly
Dallas
Arizona
Detroit
Its awesome that five of these teams are going to play in three days. This has to be the best slate of Thanksgiving games of all time, right?
I love that we also get rematches of PHI-DAL and SF-SEA in two weeks, with PHI-SEA in the middle. Four teams enter, how many walk out of that three week stretch with a legitimate shot of making the playoffs?
The NFC is really tough because there are so many teams that are just completely different at home and on the road. Some of that is to be expected of course, but I feel like it's pronounced in that Conference this year for whatever reasons. I think I'm going to rank mine now less on who would win on a neutral field and who I think has good shots at byes/home playoff games.
Green Bay
Dallas
Seattle
Philly
New Orleans (lol, I know, but they should still win that division and get a home playoff game)
Arizona (I think they're going to fall off the wagon, with their upcoming schedule. Ten to elevent wins, and a decent shot at being overtaken by Seattle).
San Fran
Detroit
Atlanta
Rest don't matter.
Green Bay
Dallas
Seattle
Philly
New Orleans (lol, I know, but they should still win that division and get a home playoff game)
Arizona (I think they're going to fall off the wagon, with their upcoming schedule. Ten to elevent wins, and a decent shot at being overtaken by Seattle).
San Fran
Detroit
Atlanta
Rest don't matter.
The real winner in the next three weeks should be Detroit, which doesn't have to play any of the contenders until its Week 17 game against Green Bay, and has three home games in a row . But does anyone have faith in Detroit to take care of business?
No one seems to believe in AZ, both on this board and in the media that I've seen. I haven't watched them enough to have a strong opinion, but...
* At 9-2, they are tied for the best record in the NFL with NE.
* Their two losses are against (records listed removing the game vs AZ): DEN (7-3) and SEA (7-3)
* Their wins include (same caveat about records): SF (7-3), SD (7-3), PHI (8-2), DAL (8-2), DET (7-3), and a tough STL team that has beaten SEA, SF, and DEN.
I have little idea what any of this means.
* At 9-2, they are tied for the best record in the NFL with NE.
* Their two losses are against (records listed removing the game vs AZ): DEN (7-3) and SEA (7-3)
* Their wins include (same caveat about records): SF (7-3), SD (7-3), PHI (8-2), DAL (8-2), DET (7-3), and a tough STL team that has beaten SEA, SF, and DEN.
I have little idea what any of this means.
coremiller said:
I was trying to think earlier about the odds of them going 3-0 after that stretch. They should be substantial favorites in each game, especially at home, but people tend to overestimate the odds of multiple events all occurring.
From what I can tell, Detroit is basically in (barring crazy scenarios) if they finish 11-5 but it will get interesting if they only manage 10-6. They'll have four conference losses which is what Seattle will have if they finish 10-6 and perhaps SF too if they finish 10-6 (depending on whether or not a loss to OAK or SD is one of their final two losses). But I think both teams will have the advantage over Detroit in the next tiebreaker, common games. On the other hand, if either Philly or Dallas finishes 10-6, they're guaranteed to have more than four conference losses and would therefore lose the conference games tiebreaker to Detroit.
Save GB.....whom I am on the fence about (Great PASSING Offense....ehh Defense) is there a better year for the Pats to be entering Juggernaut mode? Compare your thoughts on the AFCs chances compared to last year.
49ers suffering from injury and hangerover (both from past success...and from actual alcohol....)
Seattle defense not looking as dominate as in the past and "Beast Mode" wearing out his welcome
Arizona imploding due to QB injuries
Philly seems to "only beat bad teams and cant win on the road"
Dallas has a hobbled Romo and has Romo.
Detroit is flawed and has a hobbled/recovering Megatron
The NFC South.....nuff said.
I know I am painting with a broad brush with some of those....but there is certainly no "2013 Seahawks or 2012-2013 49ers" Coming out of the NFC this year.
What are your thoughts on:
At a neutral field...
Pats Favored against all 7 of those contenders (NFC South not counted).
Denver Favored against all 7 of those contenders
Baltimore/Cinnci/Pitt/Cleve battle royal favored over 3 (?) of those 7
Indy favored over 5 (?) of those 7
Even SD (!) a pick em in 3 (?) of those games
49ers suffering from injury and hangerover (both from past success...and from actual alcohol....)
Seattle defense not looking as dominate as in the past and "Beast Mode" wearing out his welcome
Arizona imploding due to QB injuries
Philly seems to "only beat bad teams and cant win on the road"
Dallas has a hobbled Romo and has Romo.
Detroit is flawed and has a hobbled/recovering Megatron
The NFC South.....nuff said.
I know I am painting with a broad brush with some of those....but there is certainly no "2013 Seahawks or 2012-2013 49ers" Coming out of the NFC this year.
What are your thoughts on:
At a neutral field...
Pats Favored against all 7 of those contenders (NFC South not counted).
Denver Favored against all 7 of those contenders
Baltimore/Cinnci/Pitt/Cleve battle royal favored over 3 (?) of those 7
Indy favored over 5 (?) of those 7
Even SD (!) a pick em in 3 (?) of those games
inpredictable says right now Pats would be pick'em ish against GB, 2.5 over Seattle, 4.5 over SF, 5.5 over Philly, 8 over Dallas 8.5 over Detroit (big line move here), Arizonabakahump said:
Denver similar as betting markets has Denver-Pats neutral field as pick em
Baltimore favored over all but Seattle and GB, Pit lower, SD, Cle and Cin dogs to all of them
Oil Can Dan said:
NFL circle of parity works because it's hard to win games on the road. Of the 32 games on that circle 6 of them were road wins.
It's hard to win games on the road, and this is especially true in SEA. I actually put a lot of stock into that one game. Very impressive win.
bakahump said:
That's your reason for not liking Dallas? It has nothing to do with a defense that looks like it's constantly on the verge of giving up 50 points?
Romo is 4th in the league in QBR, 7th in DVOA, 8th in DYAR and outside of his first half after coming back from back surgery, he's been nearly flawless all season (he only has three interceptions outside of the three he threw in that half against SF). Murray's getting all the press for the Cowboys, and deservedly so, but this has been, without question, the best season of Romo's career. I know it's easy to pick on Romo, but anyone who's paying attention should know that he's been spectacular this year.
Oh and he didn't look all that hobbled to me on Sunday.
Stitch01 said:
You don't have to, but if one considers the teams relatively equal, the road win should give Dallas the edge.
It's important to note that Seattle suffered some key injuries on defense in that game. Then again, outside of a couple special teams gaffes, Dallas completely dominated. Special teams do count, so that can't be dismissed, but their special teams have been improving of late.
Personally, I think it's probably a tossup on a neutral field, but I'm not sure I'd bet on Dallas winning in Seattle again. Especially if it occurs in January.
FO playoff odds page has NE/DEN/GB as even odds against the rest of the field to win the Superbowl.
Romo has been great....and I admitted I was painting with a "broad brush" and was going for some cheap humor.
You are right that the defense is a real concern.
But you have to admit....Romo tends to "wilt" regardless of Regular season success.
Add all of that together....and the point stands.....Dallas (nor any NFC team.....save a sneaky,Crappy mediocre defense GB) is not very scary.
You are right that the defense is a real concern.
But you have to admit....Romo tends to "wilt" regardless of Regular season success.
Add all of that together....and the point stands.....Dallas (nor any NFC team.....save a sneaky,
I know the really sucky NFC South champion getting into the playoffs has been addressed, but did you realize that Atlanta, the current leader, is 0-7 outside the division?
They're very likely to lose all 3 remaining non-division games (ARI, @GB, PIT), but if they win their last 2 division games (@NO, CAR) they could very well host a playoff game despite being 0-10 outside their division.
They're very likely to lose all 3 remaining non-division games (ARI, @GB, PIT), but if they win their last 2 division games (@NO, CAR) they could very well host a playoff game despite being 0-10 outside their division.
bakahump said:
I don't have to admit anything, because Romo has never played on a team such as the one he's playing on now. He's never had the kind of offensive line and running game that the Cowboys have this year, so he's always had to carry the team on his shoulders, which would lead to him pressing the issue when he shouldn't have.
It's a convenient narrative, but of the problems the Cowboys have had over the past decade, Romo isn't anywhere near the top. Calling Romo their biggest problem is lazy and reeks of "lol Cowboys" nonsense.
I don't have a problem with your point regarding the Patriots, so my post was not at all meant to refute that.
So I think we settled the Dallas and Philly relative ranking for a while
1) Packers
2) Cards but falling
3) Eagles
4) Seahawks
5) Detroit
6) Dallas
7) SF
8) NFC south winner
And I think this is how it looks for byes etc too.
2 of Packers, Eagles, Cards and Seahawks
loser of cards and seahawks gets wildcard 1
Detroit and Dallas battling for the last wild card.
SF still in the hunt for the last wC but fading.
NFC south stealing from Detroit or Dallas.
This is a big game for the Packers, beat the Patriots at home and they will be my favorites for the 1 seed and not sure who is going into there any winning.
They lose and the Eagles have a shot at it, they'll be favorites in ever game left, Seahawks and Cowboys tough tests but at home and they match up well with both.
1) Packers
2) Cards but falling
3) Eagles
4) Seahawks
5) Detroit
6) Dallas
7) SF
8) NFC south winner
And I think this is how it looks for byes etc too.
2 of Packers, Eagles, Cards and Seahawks
loser of cards and seahawks gets wildcard 1
Detroit and Dallas battling for the last wild card.
SF still in the hunt for the last wC but fading.
NFC south stealing from Detroit or Dallas.
This is a big game for the Packers, beat the Patriots at home and they will be my favorites for the 1 seed and not sure who is going into there any winning.
They lose and the Eagles have a shot at it, they'll be favorites in ever game left, Seahawks and Cowboys tough tests but at home and they match up well with both.
Right now, I feel like Green Bay is very similar to Indianapolis heading into the Sunday night game against the Pats a few weeks ago. Really strong at home and an explosive offense, but with holes on defense soon to be exploited. The only strong playoff teams they've beaten are Philadelphia at home and Miami on the road. Good wins for sure, but they've lost to the only other 2 playoff caliber teams they've had to face: Detroit and Seattle.
Defensively, GB ranks 30th(!) in rushing yards allowed/game, 21st in passing. Nothing particularly special there. I see their grasp as number 1 loosening after this Sunday vs. the Pats.
Then you have Seattle gaining momentum at the right time of year. Bobby Wagner and Kam Chancellor are starting to get healthy. Those 2 and the rest of that defense looked explosive and swarming towards the ball against SF last night. Who knows if SF is a good barometer this year, but look out for Seattle. If that defense continues playing well, I don't see anyone in the NFC taking them out (except Arizona). That SNF game between Arizona and Seattle in Glendale in a couple weeks should tell us who is #1 in the NFC.
I just don't see how Green Bay defeats Seattle, even if it's in GB. Seattle will run it right down that 30th ranked defenses' throats.
TL;DR - I expect GB to slip and Seattle to rise up to that #1 slot soon.
Defensively, GB ranks 30th(!) in rushing yards allowed/game, 21st in passing. Nothing particularly special there. I see their grasp as number 1 loosening after this Sunday vs. the Pats.
Then you have Seattle gaining momentum at the right time of year. Bobby Wagner and Kam Chancellor are starting to get healthy. Those 2 and the rest of that defense looked explosive and swarming towards the ball against SF last night. Who knows if SF is a good barometer this year, but look out for Seattle. If that defense continues playing well, I don't see anyone in the NFC taking them out (except Arizona). That SNF game between Arizona and Seattle in Glendale in a couple weeks should tell us who is #1 in the NFC.
I just don't see how Green Bay defeats Seattle, even if it's in GB. Seattle will run it right down that 30th ranked defenses' throats.
TL;DR - I expect GB to slip and Seattle to rise up to that #1 slot soon.
Well the Eagles running game isn't too bad either and they couldn't really get it going vs the Packers.
The Eagles have played 4 decent teams on the road, should have beaten the Cardinals (very close and they played a bad game) should have beaten the niners (dropped catch at the death to win it and that was the height of the injury issues to the o-line 4 starters missed that game) the cowboys last night and the packers.
One game is a bit of a lottery, and we'll know a lot more monday. If they do that to the pats then the NFC likely goes through Green Bay and they'd be favourites in any match up there for me.
Lose though, and they could end up losing the bye and on the road I think those liabilities show up a lot more.
The Eagles have played 4 decent teams on the road, should have beaten the Cardinals (very close and they played a bad game) should have beaten the niners (dropped catch at the death to win it and that was the height of the injury issues to the o-line 4 starters missed that game) the cowboys last night and the packers.
One game is a bit of a lottery, and we'll know a lot more monday. If they do that to the pats then the NFC likely goes through Green Bay and they'd be favourites in any match up there for me.
Lose though, and they could end up losing the bye and on the road I think those liabilities show up a lot more.
GBrushTWood said:
I certainly understand the *feeling* that Seattle is better than Arizona right now.
But for SEA to get the #1 seed, you're assuming that:
1. They win @ ARI
2. They sweep their other three games, including @ PHI
3. ARI loses at least one other game (@SF and vs. KC being most likely candidates)
Each of these three things is possible, but the likelihood of all of them happening is relatively small IMO.
Seattle is certainly playing better, but they still have to play @Philadelphia and @Arizona and I don't think they'll be favored in either of those.
Dallas has three road games, but will probably be an underdog @Philadephia only.
Detroit has three easy games followed by @GB.
All three are at 8-4 now, but will probably need to get to 11-5 for a playoff spot.
Dallas has three road games, but will probably be an underdog @Philadephia only.
Detroit has three easy games followed by @GB.
All three are at 8-4 now, but will probably need to get to 11-5 for a playoff spot.
They got down early in that game, too - it was 17-0 after just two Eagles possessions. McCoy and Sproles combined for 109 yards on 25 carries, which is solid, but you can't keep pounding the rock when you're losing by that much. They did a better job against the run against Chicago and Minnesota, too, though, so maybe it is partially for real.LondonSox said:
They got outgained by almost 200 yards against SF and all their points were on three return TDs. You can say "could have beaten"; I don't think "should have beaten" is accurate.LondonSox said:
I'm sticking with this, even with a New England win at GB on Sunday. Perhaps Dallas could move behind AZ or Detroit, but I think those three teams are all about equal. Any event, I think GB is the class of the league, with Philly & Seattle owning the tier just behind them. Philly's likely going to need to run the table to get the #1 seed, and the Pats will likely have to win Sunday vs GB. Otherwise Philly could be staring at #3 unless AZ really blows up, which I think is relatively likely to happen.Oil Can Dan said:
Ha. Yes, trust me I'm with you on that. I was reposting my rankings from the 24th, well before yesterdays game.LondonSox said:
Thru Week 13
1. Green Bay 9-3
2. Philadelphia 9-3
3. Seattle 8-4
4. Dallas 8-4
5. Arizona 9-3
6. Detroit 8-4
7. San Francisco 7-5
8. New Orleans 5-7
9. St. Louis 5-7
10. Chicago 5-7
11. Minnesota 5-7
12. Atlanta 5-7
13. Carolina 3-8-1
14. New York Giants 3-9
15. Tampa Bay 2-10
16. Washington 3-9
Edit: At least Tampa Bay is finally fucking eliminated from playoff consideration.
Edit 2: I guess not officially, but it's going to take winning out, Carolina losing once more and Atlanta/NO losing all of their remaining games except against each other, where they have to tie.
1. Green Bay 9-3
2. Philadelphia 9-3
3. Seattle 8-4
4. Dallas 8-4
5. Arizona 9-3
6. Detroit 8-4
7. San Francisco 7-5
8. New Orleans 5-7
9. St. Louis 5-7
10. Chicago 5-7
11. Minnesota 5-7
12. Atlanta 5-7
13. Carolina 3-8-1
14. New York Giants 3-9
15. Tampa Bay 2-10
16. Washington 3-9
Edit: At least Tampa Bay is finally fucking eliminated from playoff consideration.
Edit 2: I guess not officially, but it's going to take winning out, Carolina losing once more and Atlanta/NO losing all of their remaining games except against each other, where they have to tie.