RealFantasy Draft - DRAFTING NOW, CLOCK STARTS MONDAY

Super Nomario

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Nov 5, 2000
14,031
Mansfield MA
SMU_Sox said:
With that pick we may or not be done with receivers. We drafted 4 in the last 5 rounds: Blackmon, Steve Johnson, Paul Richardson, and now Allan Robinson. One guy is suspended but we hope to see back week 8. Johnson is healthy now and then the two rookies to go with Greg Jennings. If Robinson can develop into a red zone threat with his height and vertical we'd be happy. We have the depth where he can learn for a year too. If we hit on these gambles we're more than good at WR. But for our team we need to gamble. We need the weapons on offense. Our team with a passing game would be pretty ridiculous.

We passed on one of my favorites in the draft. Don't think we'll see him back. But i think we made the right call to try and boost our passing attack.
You guys have used five picks on passing game weapons and still arguably have a below-average passing attack. Nice work.
 
wibi said:
Im getting on a plane to Sydney, Australia tomorrow afternoon and will be offline for the rest of the weekend.  
That's what the Proxy account is for - PM it a couple picks and we won't need to skip you.
 

wibi

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Jul 15, 2005
11,854
Super Nomario said:
That's what the Proxy account is for - PM it a couple picks and we won't need to skip you.
 
Not a clue what the Proxy account is
 

JerBear

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Nov 11, 2006
1,584
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Super Nomario said:
That's what the Proxy account is for - PM it a couple picks and we won't need to skip you.
At the rate we're going today we might make it back to him by this afternoon.
 
There's a user called Proxy that is checked by a couple users only when the person who sent the PM is up on the clock.  If you send a couple names they will take the highest rated still available when your pick comes through.
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

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Jan 17, 2006
3,016
When SuperNomario yings I yang. I picked up a vet early in this draft to round out my starters, and make it easier to stockpile some rookies in the middle rounds. These guys can be brought in with little pressure to start and learn behind some of the best in football.
 
My D runs on versatility. Here I'll add another guy that can play two positions and give Dion Jordan that kick in the pants that will hopefully push him to the next level. 
 
The San Francisco 49ers select: DE/OLB, Kareem Martin
 

 
This guy is long, 6'6" 35" arms; Athletic, led all D-Lineman in the broad jump; and Football smart. I'll be able to edge rush him out of the 9-tech, or drop him back as an OLB in my base 3-4. My team had great luck with injuries last year but if Orakpo, Jordan, or Houston go down I don't have anything to back them up with. This guy will be great coming off the bench, and in worse case scenario where Jordan doesn't make that leap in the 2nd year, Kareem can take some snaps away and keep both of them fresh. 
 
PM sent to Dollar and BSJ
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
9,013
Dallas
Super Nomario said:
You guys have used five picks on passing game weapons and still arguably have a below-average passing attack. Nice work.
 
 
I think we have a lot of question marks, SN.
 
We have two higher profile rookies in Paul Richardson and Allan Robinson. No idea how they develop.
 
Steve Johnson is coming off of an injury.
 
Justin Blackmon is suspended until who knows when.
 
Travis Kelce was injured all of last year.
 
Jacob Tamme is a slot receiving TE who is a complementary piece but has good height. If he had more playing time IRL he'd be a decent above average TE receiving weapon. (Which is not supposed to impact us, right?)
 
Aldrick Robinson has potential but he's most likely just depth at this point. He needs to develop more consistency. 
 
Greg Jennings is getting up there in age and is more of a WR2 now.
 
And let's not forget our QBs: McCown and Fitzpatrick. 
 
I think how these pieces play out determines our fate. If we get lucky and all our gambles pay off I'd argue we're above average. If not? We're still probably better than last year. 
 

Dollar

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May 5, 2006
11,235
My secondary needs more help, so the Broncos select...

Phillip Gaines, CB

Third round pick of the Chiefs, has lots of physical talent.. needs to stay healthy. I'll slot him in as a nickel corner for now, and hope he has the ability to start for my Broncos soon.

On mobile, can someone pm bsj? thanks.
 

mascho

Kane is Able
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Nov 30, 2007
14,952
Silver Spring, Maryland
Dollar said:
My secondary needs more help, so the Broncos select...

Phillip Gaines, CB

Third round pick of the Chiefs, has lots of physical talent.. needs to stay healthy. I'll slot him in as a nickel corner for now, and hope he has the ability to start for my Broncos soon.

On mobile, can someone pm bsj? thanks.
Done. Also let Turrable know he is on-deck
 

Super Nomario

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SMU_Sox said:
 
I think we have a lot of question marks, SN.
 
I think how these pieces play out determines our fate. If we get lucky and all our gambles pay off I'd argue we're above average. If not? We're still probably better than last year. 
While you and KFP are using your 5 top picks making a group with "a lot of question marks" that's "probably better than last year," everyone else is actually improving their teams. Well, except SF121, who's aggressively acquiring the most mediocre talent he can find.
 
(do I really have to carry the trash-talking load here?)
 
Dollar said:
My secondary needs more help, so the Broncos select...

Phillip Gaines, CB

Third round pick of the Chiefs, has lots of physical talent.. needs to stay healthy. I'll slot him in as a nickel corner for now, and hope he has the ability to start for my Broncos soon.

On mobile, can someone pm bsj? thanks.
bsj PM'd. And screw you for this pick.
 
bakahump said:
Are we suspending things for the holiday weekend? (or a portion of it?)
The consensus a page or so back was no - you can send picks to Proxy as necessary.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
9,013
Dallas
I dunno man. I thought you wanted a serious discussion. I didn't think that was trash talk. I don't think beating my chest about how good I think my receivers will be means shit. They'll play. We'll evaluate their performance. I have no expectations. 
 
Basically KFP know the situation about our team. If we have good QB and WR play it's game over :D. If we don't we'll probably get stuck in the middle again. Smoke 'em if you got 'em.
 

soxfan121

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SMU_Sox said:
Jacob Tamme is a slot receiving TE who is a complementary piece but has good height. If he had more playing time IRL he'd be a decent above average TE receiving weapon. (Which is not supposed to impact us, right?)
 
I'll get to this in a minute...
 
Super Nomario said:
While you and KFP are using your 5 top picks making a group with "a lot of question marks" that's "probably better than last year," everyone else is actually improving their teams. Well, except SF121, who's aggressively acquiring the most mediocre talent he can find.
 
My theory is that we - participants in the RFP - don't know 1/1,000,000,000,000th that real NFL teams do. Apologies to phragle, but it's true. Don't get me wrong - I appreciate the amateur scouting of our "Wait, Who?" contingent. I am a long-time devotee of prospect-humping for the Red Sox. I even saw Jason Place play in person once and thought he was gonna be AWESOME.
 
Unless the argument is VERY convincing, and based on something tangible, I have a real hard time buying the "well, he would have played more for ME!" It's a broken, silly notion. If they guy was good, he would play for his NFL team. Only in very limited circumstances can the "he only played 50 snaps because he's behind X, hall of famer" argument hold water for very long. 
 
Snaps matter. Who holds starting jobs in the NFL matters. The level of play ON THE FIELD is the primary measure. Sure, there's a "fantasy" element to this but I am not interested in the "well, if 32 NFL teams/coaches/front offices saw what *I* see, they'd know that Joe Smith is great and should have played more." Joe Smith, if he were good, would play. 
 
Specifically, in the case of Jacob Tamme (and I'm only going here because the question was asked), if he were as good as Julius Thomas, he'd play more. If he were better - or had more potential, skill or talent - Jacob Tamme would not have signed a contract that will get him cut after this season, if not before the start of it. He'd have had better offers. Sure, he probably followed Peyton to Denver...but he ain't playing with Peyton in the RFP. His major asset in real life - his familiarity with Peyton and that offense - means precisely nothing here. His production is what it is - part-time play from a part-time role player. 
 
I don't look at Tamme and say "that guy would definitely be better in a different situation". In fact, the opposite is probably true. But I'm willing to just go with the tape, the production, the actual play. And if he doesn't play...then we go with that, too. 
 
In three years, the guys I've taken in this draft will be on the wrong side of 30; my QB will be on the wrong side of 40. But I don't have any delusions about being able to pick the 2020 All-Pro team in 2014, either. When the next iteration of the RFP happens, I'll probably have a totally different team strategy. 
 
And no offense to Dollar, but I'm gonna humbly suggest that the guy I took in this round (Alan Ball, aggressively mediocre) plays 10x the snaps the guy he took (Gaines) over the next two years, producing much more than that guy - even in "fantasy" land. Either way, it'll be much easier to look at my team and know exactly what it was - the numbers will stand on their own. The only argument I will make is the one I've made from the moment I drafted him  - Tom Brady makes everyone on my offense better. I will not claim that [REDACTED, player from my roster last year who was dropped] was actually "great" because he was healthy in fantasy land and played a big role, because, well, duh - he didn't play.
 
TL;DR
I think evaluations should be based on tangible things like playing time, snaps, team role and stats. I think that almost all arguments made about guys who don't play suffer because no one here is an NFL professional. And aggressively mediocre veterans work for my team because they will at least play AND fit my window. Surrounding Tom Brady with guys who will sit on the pine and "develop" doesn't help; getting productive veterans with clear starting roles and production, does. Suck it, SN. ;-)
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
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Tamme is a guy who can give you 200-600 yards or somewhere around there as a slot TE. He's a TE2. He might play a little more with us but we hope he takes a back seat to Kelce. I'm not saying he's a rock star, just around average as a TE2 slot guy. I don't think we should have much of a disagreement there. He has decent height and is reliable catching the ball. He's a guy with a dependable floor but not much ceiling. 
 

soxfan121

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SMU_Sox said:
Tamme is a guy who can give you 200-600 yards or somewhere around there as a slot TE. He's a TE2. He might play a little more with us but we hope he takes a back seat to Kelce. I'm not saying he's a rock star, just around average as a TE2 slot guy. I don't think we should have much of a disagreement there. He has decent height and is reliable catching the ball. He's a guy with a dependable floor but not much ceiling. 
 
Aggressively mediocre?
 
And would it be fair to say that while there's a chance Jace Amaro outproduces Tamme in 2014, there's also a chance that Jace Amaro can't play in the league? High ceiling, possibly no floor?
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
9,013
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soxfan121 said:
 
Aggressively mediocre?
 
And would it be fair to say that while there's a chance Jace Amaro outproduces Tamme in 2014, there's also a chance that Jace Amaro can't play in the league? High ceiling, possibly no floor?
 
121, bro, I honestly don't know why you responded that to me... 1) I didn't make that comment, 2) I don't have Jace Amaro (I did draft him for OAK in our mock though). I think Jace Amaro has a medium floor as a receiving TE. Unsure of his ceiling. Medium high?
 
Or did you post that because I've debated Jace Amaro in Wait Who? 
 

Super Nomario

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SMU_Sox said:
I dunno man. I thought you wanted a serious discussion. I didn't think that was trash talk. I don't think beating my chest about how good I think my receivers will be means shit. They'll play. We'll evaluate their performance. I have no expectations. 
 
Basically KFP know the situation about our team. If we have good QB and WR play it's game over :D. If we don't we'll probably get stuck in the middle again. Smoke 'em if you got 'em.
I didn't mean to suggest you guys were trash talking. You weren't, but I was. ;)
 
I don't really disagree with your player-by-player breakdown of your receivers; where we probably disagree is on the assessment of the rest of your squad. We can't have a serious discussion about your draft strategy so far without talking about elements of your team that you probably plan on improving later, so I'll wait until further along to do that. For now, just trash talk. 
 
soxfan121 said:
Specifically, in the case of Jacob Tamme (and I'm only going here because the question was asked), if he were as good as Julius Thomas, he'd play more. If he were better - or had more potential, skill or talent - Jacob Tamme would not have signed a contract that will get him cut after this season, if not before the start of it. He'd have had better offers. Sure, he probably followed Peyton to Denver...but he ain't playing with Peyton in the RFP. His major asset in real life - his familiarity with Peyton and that offense - means precisely nothing here. His production is what it is - part-time play from a part-time role player. 
Obviously Tamme isn't Julius Thomas, but that's hardly a crime. He's a guy with a track record of some kind, at least, and did OK when he got more playing time late in the year when Thomas and Welker (the other guy he's competing for PT with) were hurt. In general I'm partial to your argument here, but in Tamme's particular case I think SMU has a point. I do think you make a good point re: Peyton. I also think Tamme's PFF run blocking is laughable - he grades out much better than Virgil Green (+0.7 vs -2.5) even though the Broncos asked Green to run block much more often (209 times vs 104).
 
soxfan121 said:
 In three years, the guys I've taken in this draft will be on the wrong side of 30; my QB will be on the wrong side of 40. But I don't have any delusions about being able to pick the 2020 All-Pro team in 2014, either. When the next iteration of the RFP happens, I'll probably have a totally different team strategy. 
 
And no offense to Dollar, but I'm gonna humbly suggest that the guy I took in this round (Alan Ball, aggressively mediocre) plays 10x the snaps the guy he took (Gaines) over the next two years, producing much more than that guy - even in "fantasy" land. Either way, it'll be much easier to look at my team and know exactly what it was - the numbers will stand on their own.
 
I think evaluations should be based on tangible things like playing time, snaps, team role and stats. I think that almost all arguments made about guys who don't play suffer because no one here is an NFL professional. And aggressively mediocre veterans work for my team because they will at least play AND fit my window. Surrounding Tom Brady with guys who will sit on the pine and "develop" doesn't help; getting productive veterans with clear starting roles and production, does. Suck it, SN. ;-)
The problem is there are years between 2014 and 2020. You're (deliberately) unprepared for Brady to be retired / washed-up / hurt in 2017, but you also seem to be unprepared for him still being good.
 
EDIT: just went to PFF's home page and saw an article on Ball there:   https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/05/23/secret-superstars-2014-jacksonville-jaguars/
 

Phragle

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mascho said:
The Sentinels select George Iloka, SS/FS, Cincinnati Bengals
 

 
A three year starter at Boise State, Iloka was considered a top NFL draft prospect in the 2012 NFL draft.  Some scouting resources even had him as the #1 FS.  But Iloka fell, the Bengals took him in the 5th round, and he barely saw the field in 2012, but for special teams.
 
He started every single game for the Bengals in 2013: five starts at SS, ten starts at FS, and one start against Detroit in the slot, where he laid the wood to Megatron in the above picture.  He was on the field for 97 percent of Cincy's defensive snaps last season.  PFF had him as their #20 overall safety, and in their specialized stats, he was the #3 coverage safety.  He allowed only 49 YAC last year.  He's a big, physical player who isn't afraid of contact.  Cincinnati passed on available safeties in this draft and he's earned the starting job at SS going into this season.
 
I love this kid's versatility.  Even though he was a starter at FS in college, he filled in at CB when BSU had some injury trouble.  As I mentioned he started at both FS/SS for Cincy, but also played in the slot.  We'll pencil him in as our starting FS for now, although we may move him to SS depending on how things go with our other safeties.  But his versatility is a huge plus for our secondary.
 
PM en route to sf121.
 
Good pick. (Throws something.)
 
SMU_Sox said:
On mobile so please pm.

pick is Allan Robinson . Boom or bust WR, PSU, EL Jacksonville.
 
Good pick. (Fuck you and your stupid shit-wipe face you fucking asshole. Fuck you.)
 
Super Nomario said:
That's what the Proxy account is for - PM it a couple picks and we won't need to skip you.
wibi said:
Not a clue what the Proxy account is
 
Does anyone else want access to the Proxy account? I'll always have my phone but I can't guarantee I'll remember and be sober all weekend.
 
Someone could end up with Jamarcus Russell.
 
Super Nomario said:
While you and KFP are using your 5 top picks making a group with "a lot of question marks" that's "probably better than last year," everyone else is actually improving their teams. Well, except SF121, who's aggressively acquiring the most mediocre talent he can find.
 
(do I really have to carry the trash-talking load here?)
 
Yeah I can't believe how hard you guys are trying. Best case scenario for any of you is a loss to the Turtlenecks in the AFC CG. I don't even know who to pick now. We have no needs. I wish we could trade out.
 
Super Nomario said:
The problem is there are years between 2014 and 2020. You're (deliberately) unprepared for Brady to be retired / washed-up / hurt in 2017, but you also seem to be unprepared for him still being good.
Yeah that's what I'm wondering. 121, how small do you think the Brady-window is? In 2011 he said he's going to play 10 more years. Will Ball, Collins, and Clark even be in the league then?
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
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Dec 6, 2003
22,804
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
Mobile here but going with

PRESTON BROWN, LB

I could really use another thumper inside, and I think Brown offers that. Feel real good about the value of this pick here.

Can someone else send a pm? Thanks.
 

soxfan121

JAG
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Dec 22, 2002
23,043
SMU_Sox said:
 
121, bro, I honestly don't know why you responded that to me... 1) I didn't make that comment, 2) I don't have Jace Amaro (I did draft him for OAK in our mock though). I think Jace Amaro has a medium floor as a receiving TE. Unsure of his ceiling. Medium high?
 
Or did you post that because I've debated Jace Amaro in Wait Who? 
 
I thought you were looking for a serious discussion. And yes, that comparison came to mind because of your work in WW. Had SSF been involved, I'd have invoked CJF. 
 
I think the non-zero chance that a guy like Amaro cannot play in the league is glossed over and it is assumed that he has a "medium floor" because of his draft position. The problem is that every single draft produces BUSTS with good draft position. No drafted player is a lock for "medium floor"; most have high ceilings and a bust-out chance of higher than 0.
 
 
Super Nomario said:
The problem is there are years between 2014 and 2020. You're (deliberately) unprepared for Brady to be retired / washed-up / hurt in 2017, but you also seem to be unprepared for him still being good.
 
EDIT: just went to PFF's home page and saw an article on Ball there:   https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/05/23/secret-superstars-2014-jacksonville-jaguars/
 
I had that linked saved for someone who specifically went after the Ball pick. A general criticism of the strategy didn't call for heavy weaponry. ;-)
 
Hey, if we haven't agreed to do a new RFP "start over" by 2017, I'll eat my proverbial hat. A few folks will follow these rosters into 2020 and will certainly crow about their foresight in taking the biggest star in the NFL way back when, but I'm clearly uninterested in panning for prospect gold. I want to be very good in 2014, 2015 and 2016. I think taking solid veterans over unproven potential is a way to make that happen. 
 
When Tom Brady goes bye-bye, I will fall into the top end of the draft and I will hope like hell to score a new QB. But I don't see the point in adding players with significant bust-out factors and no track record of production over players with starting jobs and actual, tangible results.
 

soxfan121

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phragle said:
 Yeah that's what I'm wondering. 121, how small do you think the Brady-window is? In 2011 he said he's going to play 10 more years. Will Ball, Collins, and Clark even be in the league then?
 
Forty. I have seen the list of successful, top-tier QB over the age of forty. It did not take long to read the complete list. I know you think he's going to play until he puts George Blanda out of the record books, while never missing a game or having a physical decline. But at this point, it must be noted that you chose to build your empire on the shaky, shitty knees of a guy who won't be in the league in three years either. 
 
Ball upgrades my dismal CB spot right now and maybe next year. Collins just signed a long term deal in Tampa and assuming he plays to his potential, has that job for three years. Clark will be good as long as Peyton is good. 
 
Again, if we haven't re-drafted and started anew by 2017, I'll eat my proverbial hat. 
 

Turrable

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Apr 12, 2011
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bsj said:
Mobile here but going with

PRESTON BROWN, LB

I could really use another thumper inside, and I think Brown offers that. Feel real good about the value of this pick here.

Can someone else send a pm? Thanks.
 
I deserve this.
 

JerBear

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Nov 11, 2006
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Not a huge deal, but if people could post what position they want their drafted players to be put on the speadsheet it will make it a lot easier for those updating, especially if you're going to play them out of position.  When I'm not sure I just go to the draft profile and you get whatever it says.  This is mostly for those drafting linebackers (ILB, OLB), safeties (FS, SS), and flex players (DE/OLB are helpful since I don't remember if you're in a 3-4 or a 4-3).
 
Thanks!
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
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Dec 6, 2003
22,804
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
JerBear said:
Not a huge deal, but if people could post what position they want their drafted players to be put on the speadsheet it will make it a lot easier for those updating, especially if you're going to play them out of position.  When I'm not sure I just go to the draft profile and you get whatever it says.  This is mostly for those drafting linebackers (ILB, OLB), safeties (FS, SS), and flex players (DE/OLB are helpful since I don't remember if you're in a 3-4 or a 4-3).
 
Thanks!
Sorry man slot Preston brown in as an ILB
 

ragnarok725

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Nov 28, 2003
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JerBear said:
Not a huge deal, but if people could post what position they want their drafted players to be put on the speadsheet it will make it a lot easier for those updating, especially if you're going to play them out of position.  When I'm not sure I just go to the draft profile and you get whatever it says.  This is mostly for those drafting linebackers (ILB, OLB), safeties (FS, SS), and flex players (DE/OLB are helpful since I don't remember if you're in a 3-4 or a 4-3).
 
Thanks!
 
I've got a few people out of position, but I'm also not sure where they'll be starting yet. I was planning on just putting an addendum on my last pick with any changes to positions as necessary. Hope that's ok with those that are doing the great work with the sheet.
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

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ragnarok725 said:
I've got a few people out of position, but I'm also not sure where they'll be starting yet. I was planning on just putting an addendum on my last pick with any changes to positions as necessary. Hope that's ok with those that are doing the great work with the sheet.
 
Yeah if anyone in here wants their depth chart moved around just post it in here and we'll do the best we can do. 
 

JerBear

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bsj said:
Sorry man slot Preston brown in as an ILB
 
 
ragnarok725 said:
 
I've got a few people out of position, but I'm also not sure where they'll be starting yet. I was planning on just putting an addendum on my last pick with any changes to positions as necessary. Hope that's ok with those that are doing the great work with the sheet.
Like I said not a huge deal, just saves us some time.  As far as later adjustments those are fine as well, just realize that people get put in default places if we don't know where they really go so you're "lineup" may not be accurate as you're looking over your team.
 

Phragle

wild card bitches
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soxfan121 said:
Forty. I have seen the list of successful, top-tier QB over the age of forty. It did not take long to read the complete list.
 
Are any of them Tom Brady?
 
soxfan121 said:
I know you think he's going to play until he puts George Blanda out of the record books, while never missing a game or having a physical decline.
 
It's just odd that you're in GFIN mode and the Patriots are not. Is one ring now worth a decade of shitty years later?
 
soxfan121 said:
But at this point, it must be noted that you chose to build your empire on the shaky, shitty knees of a guy who won't be in the league in three years either.
 
That's all you got right? Just checking.

soxfan121 said:
Clark will be good as long as Peyton is good.
To start I don't think Clark is that good right now. He gave up seven sacks even will Manning getting the ball out faster than anyone. I had him as a player I'd consider in the third round if I didn't get Greg Robinson. I had Clark behind Collins.

Next, I feel like Peyton makes Clark look good rather than play good.

I was baffled when you chose a one year wonder over first round picks.
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

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phragle said:
It's just odd that you're in GFIN mode and the Patriots are not. Is one ring now worth a decade of shitty years later?
 
I think he's banking on us quitting before we see that decade of shitty years...
 
and for that I will make sure this lasts forever.
 

Turrable

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Apr 12, 2011
2,670
bsj said:
Was this really your pick? Dude I swear I didn't see it....
 
No I know you didn't, and it was my fault for not reading my PM carefully anyway.
 
Let's try Terrence Brooks, FS.
 

 
DeCoud was a huge reach last year so I could use depth at this position and I generally trust the Ravens to draft defensemen. PM will be sent shortly 
 

Myt1

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Mystic Merlin said:
The Bears select OLB Christian Kirksey.
 
I plan to slide this guy into my weakside spot.  Briggs is old, so I need some youth and speed flanking Timmons.  Still holes to fill, but I'll go with this bro.
I considered him because I wanted someone good in coverage to replace Daryl Smith when he got poached.
 

Phragle

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DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
I think he's banking on us quitting before we see that decade of shitty years...
 
and for that I will make sure this lasts forever.
So? Is it not important to leave your team in good shape? This was going to be a one year thing and people still went with youth. Now it's a multi year thing and he decides to go for older vets. Seems weird to me.
 

Super Nomario

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soxfan121 said:
 
I thought you were looking for a serious discussion. And yes, that comparison came to mind because of your work in WW. Had SSF been involved, I'd have invoked CJF. 
 
I think the non-zero chance that a guy like Amaro cannot play in the league is glossed over and it is assumed that he has a "medium floor" because of his draft position. The problem is that every single draft produces BUSTS with good draft position. No drafted player is a lock for "medium floor"; most have high ceilings and a bust-out chance of higher than 0.

 
Is any player's bust rate truly zero, though? You're throwing more picks after CB in part because "safe" veterans Cary Williams and Champ Bailey disappointed (also Dre Kirkpatrick sucked). I had to grab another CB, too, because Derek Cox fell off a cliff. Last offseason Ball was a failed safety coming off a season where he primarily played special teams and was joining his third team in as many years. Would it really be shocking if he struggled and lost his job partway through 2014?
 
Rookies certainly have some risks veterans don't, but you don't seem to be considering ceiling at all. It's a fascinating experiment and I'm interested to see how it plays out, but I don't think you're going to like the results.
 

soxfan121

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phragle said:
 
Are any of them Tom Brady?
 
 
It's just odd that you're in GFIN mode and the Patriots are not. Is one ring now worth a decade of shitty years later?
 
 
That's all you got right? Just checking.


To start I don't think Clark is that good right now. He gave up seven sacks even will Manning getting the ball out faster than anyone. I had him as a player I'd consider in the third round if I didn't get Greg Robinson. I had Clark behind Collins.

Next, I feel like Peyton makes Clark look good rather than play good.

I was baffled when you chose a one year wonder over first round picks.
 
Oh god. No one wants to listen to you go on and on and on again about your Brady is Wolverine theory. We got several thousand words about it in the JG thread. 
 
And I don't need anything but RG3 has no knee jokes and time. Tick, tick...boom.
 
As for Greg Robinson, I did not have a chance to draft him. And since the Rams are going to play him at guard - and think he might be an all-pro guard, long term - well, let's save the conversation about the proper use of resources like using the third overall pick on a guard. 
 
As I explained, I too had Clark behind Collins. When I fucked up, I decided to go with the best available player (Collins) in the next round and to move Clark to RG - a spot I had to fill later anyway. And I totally agree that Peyton makes everyone around him look better to PFF than they actually are. 
 
Which first round pick (available when I picked) could I plug in at LT to protect my QB and fill the obvious, #1 need on my board? The answer was none - all of the first and second round LT prospects were off the board by that time and only Cyrus the Virus and his possibility awful knees was left. I'm quite happy to have built an OL that figures to grade out at well above average, with a floor of average. Maximizes my chances to win - having healthy players who actually play. 
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

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phragle said:
So? Is it not important to leave your team in good shape? This was going to be a one year thing and people still went with youth. Now it's a multi year thing and he decides to go for older vets. Seems weird to me.
 
There's a reason he's one of the only people doing it. Most of us, even in a scenario where it's unrealistic to think this will keep going this strong, still think about the future (in some cases a little too much).
 
Can't say I really blame him if he wins one, since he'll undoubtedly brag and we won't be able to really tell if he could have hit on a rookie QB in 2018. 
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

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soxfan121 said:
Which first round pick (available when I picked) could I plug in at LT to protect my QB and fill the obvious, #1 need on my board? The answer was none - all of the first and second round LT prospects were off the board by that time and only Cyrus the Virus and his possibility awful knees was left. I'm quite happy to have built an OL that figures to grade out at well above average, with a floor of average. Maximizes my chances to win - having healthy players who actually play. 
 
I don't think this was a bad move. By the middle end of the first the truly elite first year rookies are gone and if you have a serious need you had to dip into the veteran pool if you're in win now mode.
 
I did the same with CB. Continuing on into the 2nd and 3rd (unless you have a ton of holes) seems like you're risking your future for now. 
 

soxfan121

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Super Nomario said:
Is any player's bust rate truly zero, though? You're throwing more picks after CB in part because "safe" veterans Cary Williams and Champ Bailey disappointed (also Dre Kirkpatrick sucked). I had to grab another CB, too, because Derek Cox fell off a cliff. Last offseason Ball was a failed safety coming off a season where he primarily played special teams and was joining his third team in as many years. Would it really be shocking if he struggled and lost his job partway through 2014?
 
Rookies certainly have some risks veterans don't, but you don't seem to be considering ceiling at all. It's a fascinating experiment and I'm interested to see how it plays out, but I don't think you're going to like the results.
 
Sure I am - I'm just valuing it differently. If Grimes becomes an All-Pro in his rookie year, then yeah, I blew the Ball pick. But if he struggles to find the field, slowly developing...and Ball plays 1000 snaps with a positive PFF score, then I knocked it out of the fucking park. 
 
But you are correct that every player (even Brady, phragle) has a non-zero chance of busting-out and giving 0 or negative value. Ball's ceiling, especially his long term potential, is certainly lower than any rookie taken. His floor is also, inarguably, higher. He might lose his job halfway through 2014 - it's a possibility for everyone - but based on the PFF article you posted and other research I did on the player made me comfortable with the risk. 
 
phragle said:
So? Is it not important to leave your team in good shape? This was going to be a one year thing and people still went with youth. Now it's a multi year thing and he decides to go for older vets. Seems weird to me.
 
I think if you'll look back at the record, I didn't draft a college guy until VERY late last year, too. I found those people stocking their teams with future UDFAs and rookie benchwarmers to be very helpful in meeting my draft strategy - surround Brady with talent for the rest of Brady's window. The expectation was never for this to last forever - I would have done it differently. Now that some of the prospect humpers are doubling down on yutes and trying to get as many 2020 All-Pros on their roster, there's been even more opportunity to take underrated veteran contributors. 
 
I didn't draft anyone will make the All-Pro team this year or any year. Neither did 28 or 29 of the other teams. Panning for prospect gold...I get why it's appealing but it is also a lot of risk for not a lot of reward. 
 
ETA: DoDM has made some really good points above I agree with. And there will undoubtedly be bragging when we win. Turrable, you listening jerkstore? We're coming for you.
 

Phragle

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soxfan121 said:
And I don't need anything but RG3 has no knee jokes and time. Tick, tick...boom.
Well that's good because you don't have anything.
 
soxfan121 said:
As I explained, I too had Clark behind Collins. When I fucked up, I decided to go with the best available player (Collins) in the next round and to move Clark to RG - a spot I had to fill later anyway. And I totally agree that Peyton makes everyone around him look better to PFF than they actually are. 
 
Which first round pick (available when I picked) could I plug in at LT to protect my QB and fill the obvious, #1 need on my board? The answer was none - all of the first and second round LT prospects were off the board by that time and only Cyrus the Virus and his possibility awful knees was left. I'm quite happy to have built an OL that figures to grade out at well above average, with a floor of average. Maximizes my chances to win - having healthy players who actually play.
You could have taken a player at any position then grabbed Collins later at LT.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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A Scud Away from Hell
We take the overall Football IQ of SoSH very seriously. When the Steelers were knocked out of the playoffs and placed last in the heated AFNC battle, the consensus was clear. Steelers need to bolster its OL and front-seven. 
 
Makes total sense, with borderline (and injured) players such as Amini Silatolu, Jordan Mills, Kelechi Osemele, and Derek Wolfe doing a patchup job. Since then, the Steelers have added undeniable talent on both sides of the ball:
  • C Dominic Raila
  • RT Cyrus Kouandjio
  • LB Khalil Mack
  • DT Mike Daniels
With the Cujo pick in round 3, we mentioned that our line is now 4/5 completed. Well hey now, here comes the final piece. 
 
Seoul Steelers stands by to select:
 
OG David Yankey
 
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4Rs5uG_3rU[/youtube]
 
Like other teams around the league, we value versatility and athleticism in our linemen. Yankey got plenty of both:
  • First true freshman to see game action for Stanford since 2000
  • Can play LT (allowed just 1 sack as a Jr) but will stay at LG
  • Has great balance and quickness for his size
  • Superb lead blocker due to his strength, footwork, and hand skills
  • Still has room to fill out his 6-6 frame (315 lb)
He'll immediately compete to replace the woeful Silatolu at LG. Frankly, not sure how he fell all the way to round 5 in the RW NFL draft.
 
So here's the massively upgraded OL, both in talent and size:
  • LT Tyron Smith (6' 5")
  • LG David Yankey (6' 6")
  • C Dominic Raiola (6' 1" - obviously a talent and not a size upgrade)
  • RG Brandon Fusco (6' 4")
  • RT Cyrus Kouandjio (6' 6")
We think arguably this is a top 10 OL right now. Everything else from here on is depth and gravy. 
 
Oh, the former Aussie just became a US citizen today. No truth to the rumor of his name change to David YankeE.
 
Edit: DanoooMe pm'd.
 

DanoooME

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I'm going with a guy that could possibly play either G or T, which is necessary since I don't know which guys on my O Line will be playing well.  You Pats fans should be familiar with Cameron Fleming, T/G
 
PMing Phragle and Scoops.
 

Scoops Bolling

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The front seven was the 'Necks strength on defense last year, and we're doubling down there. That started with Smith, and we're doubling down by adding another here in the High Top Jop himself, Joplo Bartu.

 
Bartu was an undrafted free agent, but he certainly didn't play like it. He can play all over the formation, has the athletic gifts to play man coverage, he can rush the passer...he can fill a lot of roles. And on our squad, we don't even need him to start, we can use him as a rotational pass rusher, and to take the load off our starters. Have fun stopping our front seven o-lines!
 

wibi

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Looking for a guy who can play in the middle of my D line Tony McDaniel, Superbowl Champion Seahawks fits that bill nicely and much better than any rookies will. We really wanted Odrick but sadly someone else decided to take him before we could.
 

mascho

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Scoops Bolling said:
The front seven was the 'Necks strength on defense last year, and we're doubling down there. That started with Smith, and we're doubling down by adding another here in the High Top Jop himself, Joplo Bartu.

 
Bartu was an undrafted free agent, but he certainly didn't play like it. He can play all over the formation, has the athletic gifts to play man coverage, he can rush the passer...he can fill a lot of roles. And on our squad, we don't even need him to start, we can use him as a rotational pass rusher, and to take the load off our starters. Have fun stopping our front seven o-lines!
You guys just brought piss to a shit fight.
 
He's a Sentinel.
 

bsj

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Scoops Bolling said:
The front seven was the 'Necks strength on defense last year, and we're doubling down there. That started with Smith, and we're doubling down by adding another here in the High Top Jop himself, Joplo Bartu.

 
Bartu was an undrafted free agent, but he certainly didn't play like it. He can play all over the formation, has the athletic gifts to play man coverage, he can rush the passer...he can fill a lot of roles. And on our squad, we don't even need him to start, we can use him as a rotational pass rusher, and to take the load off our starters. Have fun stopping our front seven o-lines!
Pretty sure he was taken no?