RealFantasy NFC West Discussion and Breakdown

soxfan121 · Mar 10, 2014

Weird division.

The Cardinals offense, other than Brees, is atrocious. Defense is good up front and not so good in the back. Decent special teams.

The Seahawks offense might be worse than the Cards O. Aside from Alfred Morris running over RT and a few healthy Gronk games, it's ugly. And Jordan Gross retired. On defense, Finnegan and Goldson overwhelm whatever good Chancellor and Thurmond bring to the pass defense and the front seven ranges from "promising" (Moseley & Moore) to mediocre.

And then there's Eli. The 49ers offense looks 2nd best by default and their defense is pretty darned good. But Eli would have killed any team with his picktastic 2013. However...look at those special teams!

The Rams defense is very good. Their offense would have been much better in the RFP than it measures out in real life. Newton took a leap forward this year and there's really no argument to be had that he wouldn't have been even better with Larry Fitzgerald, Patterson and Ertz. Supplemental picks on the OL paid off as well, as they surely would have used reserves instead of struggling regulars. On defense, their DL is very good with McCoy and Bennett and Trufant is the 2nd best CB in the division. However...the special teams are poor.

Would the games between the Rams and 49ers in this (hypothetical) division come down to special teams? Would Eli have been different with this personnel than he was with the Giants? Would the 49ers pass rush disrupt Newton in their head-to-head matchups leading to special teams being a factor?

I look forward to how these teams think their matchups would have played out.

Phragle · Mar 10, 2014

Danoooo, you fucked up Eugene Monroe's rating. It's 20.4.

soxfan121 said:
Weird division.

The Cardinals offense, other than Brees, is atrocious. Defense is good up front and not so good in the back. Decent special teams.

The Seahawks offense might be worse than the Cards O. Aside from Alfred Morris running over RT and a few healthy Gronk games, it's ugly. And Jordan Gross retired. On defense, Finnegan and Goldson overwhelm whatever good Chancellor and Thurmond bring to the pass defense and the front seven ranges from "promising" (Moseley & Moore) to mediocre.

And then there's Eli. The 49ers offense looks 2nd best by default and their defense is pretty darned good. But Eli would have killed any team with his picktastic 2013. However...look at those special teams!

The Rams defense is very good. Their offense would have been much better in the RFP than it measures out in real life. Newton took a leap forward this year and there's really no argument to be had that he wouldn't have been even better with Larry Fitzgerald, Patterson and Ertz. Supplemental picks on the OL paid off as well, as they surely would have used reserves instead of struggling regulars. On defense, their DL is very good with McCoy and Bennett and Trufant is the 2nd best CB in the division. However...the special teams are poor.

Would the games between the Rams and 49ers in this (hypothetical) division come down to special teams? Would Eli have been different with this personnel than he was with the Giants? Would the 49ers pass rush disrupt Newton in their head-to-head matchups leading to special teams being a factor?

I look forward to how these teams think their matchups would have played out.

I think he would. It's not like he's always been shitty.

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Mar 10, 2014

phragle said:
Danoooo, you fucked up Eugene Monroe's rating. It's 20.4.

I think he would. It's not like he's always been shitty.

Yeah I have a very long writeup already to go about why Eli should be more like old Eli than the shitty one we saw this year (mostly has to do with how shitty the Giants O-Line actually was). It's at work so I'll post it tomorrow. And thanks for pointing out Monroe was about to do the same.

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Mar 10, 2014

Also shouldn't we save the poll until after the writeups and discussion?

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Mar 10, 2014

DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
Also shouldn't we save the poll until after the writeups and discussion?

I should think so. Voting before that is a little premature, IMO.

ragnarok725 · Mar 11, 2014

Overall, I'm really happy with how the Rams played out this year.

The Good:

We have a star on both sides of the ball. Cam Newton is the face of the franchise, and Gerald McCoy is one of the best 5 DLs in football. Both of these guys are young and studs at really important positions, and both took big steps forward this year. It's a great foundation to be building around on both sides of hte ball.
Newton's receivers are pretty damn good. Fitzgerald and Newton would both really benefit from eachother's presence in this world. LaFell and Newton already have a bit of chemistry, and he's an average guy. Patterson and Ertz both looked pretty good as rookies and have a good amount of upside. Patterson in particular can be a big playmaker, and whoever said our special teams sucks needs to remember that Patterson is our returner. Kicking and punting would be meh, but there's an explosive guy returning.
On defense, the OL around McCoy is really solid. Bennett gets to the QB, especially playing next to McCoy. Kruger is solid if unspectacular, and Williams is certainly the weak link. It looks like the Ravens have faith in him though - it's possible he'll be going into next year as a starter.
The OL, while patchy, had some depth behind it. The supplemental picks were made in order to fill in some gaps and they did well at that - turning what could have been a glaring weak spot into simply an average line. Vasquez is the stud in the middle, Beatty is servicable even if he didn't live up to his contract year performance of 2012. Same goes for Bushrod. Wendell was the biggest disappointment on the line. He's still a good run blocker, but definitely need some better help in pass protection under center.
Desmond Trufant was a great pick. He looks like he has the tools to be a pro bowl CB. With Flowers opposite him, we've got a pretty damn good CB pair - which we need badly because our safeties blow.

The Bad:

There are some big gaps in the defense at the LB and Safety positions. Dane Fletcher was essentially our starting MLB all season. Vilma's corpse started on the outside. And Kenny Phillips was a huge bust at FS. Definitely need to address those areas in the offseason.
The running game was mediocre. Steven Jackson would be a solid back to take the pressure off of Newton, if he stayed healthy and had a decent line to run behind. But he didn't stay healthy and had just an average line to run behind. Montae Ball was fine in his first season, but wouldn't have been a good solo feature back for the games Jackson was hurt during, and was just otherwise slightly underwhelming in his opportunities for Denver this year.
The specialists kind of blew. Suisham and Jones were both close to the bottom of the pack at their respective jobs, and I'll be looking for replacements at potentially both positions during the offseason.
Leonard Johnson was a disaster as a nickel corner. But thankfully he just had to be a nickel corner.

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Mar 17, 2014

I think snaps are a key part of breaking down a team so I added them.

[tablegrid= NFC West Offense ] Cardinals Snaps Rams Snaps 49ers Snaps Seahawks Snaps QB Drew Brees 1138 26.5 Cam Newton 1025 8.4 Eli Manning 1002 -7.4 Matt Flynn 331 -5.4 QB2 Michael Vick 335 -0.2 RB1 Ray Rice 730 -16 Steven Jackson 426 2.8 David Wilson 113 -1.7 Alfred Morris 611 5.6 RB2 Ryan Williams 0 IR Montee Ball 314 3.5 Roy Helu 547 0.6 Ronnie Brown 157 -0.7 RB3 Joseph Randle 121 -5.6 Jonathan Franklin 62 -0.4 FB/TE Vontae Leach 230 -7.1 Gavin Escobar 206 0.3 Delanie Walker 773 1.6 Scott Chandler 931 -3.6 FB/TE Luke Willson 415 -1.2 TE Tyler Eifert 681 -1.8 Zach Ertz 459 8.4 Tony Gonzalez 1024 -3 Rob Gronkowski 390 12.4 WR1 Jeremy Maclin 0 IR Larry Fitzgerald 1020 16.5 Mike Wallace 964 0.5 Sidney Rice 340 1.4 WR2 Justin Hunter 340 0.3 Coradelle Patterson 448 6.8 Danny Amendola 581 6.8 Denarius Moore 612 1.1 WR3 Aaron Dobson 557 -4.9 Brandon LaFell 917 -3.3 Stedman Bailey 194 1.8 Chris Givens 798 -6.8 WR4 Devier Posey 248 -1.8 Marlon Brown 821 -0.9 LT Marhsall Newhouse 234 -7.9 William Beatty 1019 -6.3 Eugene Monroe 1067 20.4 Matt Kalil 1059 -1.5 LG Nate Livings 0 DNP Dallas Thomas 2 0 Andy Levitre 1082 12.3 James Carpenter 781 -13 C J.D. Walton 0 DNP Ryan Wendell 1218 -14 Dominic Raiola 1156 18.6 Max Unger 778 -1.2 RG Chris Snee 188 -6.4 Louis Vasquez 1232 31.1 Uche Nwaneri 1082 -0.3 Brian Winters 771 -28.5 RT Kyle Long -3.3 Jermon Bushrod 1070 -2 Menelik Watson 177 -6.1 Jordan Gross 1014 33.5 OL LaAdrian Waddle 553 7.9 Ronald Leary 1018 6.1 Charles Brown 974 -9.2 Austin Howard 1071 -1 Total Snaps 5020 11195 10798 10394 [/tablegrid]

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Mar 17, 2014

I think offense comes down to the Rams and 49ers, and for now I'd give the Rams the slight edge. Rams - better receivers and running game, 49ers - better OLine and QB (see below).

The Case for Eli
Just a year ago Eli came off a tremendous season (8th on PFF), and is two years away from leading his team to a Super Bowl. The Giants had one of the worst lines in the NFL last year and it had a large effect on Eli's play. PFF gave their offense an overall score of -72.9. which is 5th worst. -58.6 of that is on just pass block (2nd worst in the NFL). My line on the other hand is at +17.0 for pass block with 0 injuries and only Charles Brown being below average (I think this squad could be towards the top of our league). He would also be playing at RT in my offense instead of covering Brees' blindside. I think his rating would go up in these circumstances but I won't argue that too far.

Also with the the 49ers he has a multitude of options with a tremendous deep threat in Wallace (very under utilized with Tannehill's arm strength compared to Eli's), Tong G over the middle (+9.2 in the passing game), Amendola in the slot, Walker, and Franklin as a scat back.

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Mar 19, 2014

[tablegrid= NFC West Defense ] Cardinals Snaps Rams Snaps 49ers Snaps Seahawks Snaps DE1 Darnell Dockett 890 2.4 Michael Bennett 617 24.2 Muhammad Wilkerson 1067 17.4 Conner Barwin 1158 -0.5 DE2 Trent Cole 908 22.6 Paul Kruger 887 4.9 Lamarr Houston 1049 11.4 Alex Okafor 5 -0.7 DT/NT1 Dontari Poe 1004 25.8 Gerald McCoy 985 57.3 Phil Taylor 555 8.2 Jason Jones 87 -4.4 DT/NT2 Jarvis Jenkins 333 -3.9 Brandon Williams 93 4.0 Tommy Kelly 223 2.5 C.J. Mosley 333 8.8 DL Billy Winn 313 7.1 Ian Williams 13 -2.7 OLB1 Terrell Suggs 925 12.9 Erin Henderson 868 -0.4 Brian Orakpo 827 24.9 Nick Roach 1105 -11.5 OLB2 Sam Acho 104 -2.6 Jonathan Vilma 12 -1.4 Dion Jordan 339 0.1 Sio Moore 587 8.6 ILB/MLB1 Daryl Washington 818 -1.5 Kevin Minter 1 0 Brad Jones 594 -6.7 James Lauriniatis 1077 -8.7 ILB/MLB2 Mike Morgan 90 -1.4 Dane Fletcher 234 -0.8 Nico Johnson 17 -0.4 William Gholston 320 -3.2 LB Ramon Humber 158 0.5 Jasper Brinkley 210 1.1 LB Bront Bird 148 -1.8 Rolando McClain 0 RET CB1 Nmandi Ashomugha 139 -3.9 Brandon Flowers 887 -5.2 Brent Grimes 1132 16.4 Cortland Finnegan 367 -19.7 CB2 Ike Taylor 1069 -8.4 Desmond Trufant 1022 12.2 Kyle Arrington 838 7.6 Antoine Winfield 0 RET CB3 Brandon Taylor 0 IR Leonard Johnson 711 -14.5 Blidi Wreh-Wilson 93 1.7 Tharold Simon 0 PUP SS Duke Williams 36 -1.3 Kenny Phillips 0 IR Jarius Byrd 646 9.9 Dashon Goldson 826 -14.6 FS Jerron McMillian 196 -10.5 Jamarca Sanford 809 0.6 LaRon Landry 799 -2.3 Kam Chancellor 1030 6.1 DB Ryan Mundy 667 0.2 Phillip Adams 348 -13.5 Walter Thurmond III 480 4.8 Total Snaps 6818 8106 8737 7388 [/tablegrid]

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Mar 19, 2014

[tablegrid= Snaps ] Cardinals Rams 49ers Seahawks Offense 5020 11195 10798 10394 Defense 6818 8106 8737 7388 Total 11838 19301 19535 17782 [/tablegrid]

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Mar 19, 2014

I'm going to compare my defense to the Rams because I think it's a 2 horse race at this point. From what I gathered from rag's post up thread, the Rams are running a 4-3. I'll be running a 3-4 that will look something like this:

Though Lamarr Houston played 4-3 DE this year my team would be built like a 3-4, 4-3 hybrid. He has the size and skills to be bumped inside to 3-4 DE on my defense. He's most known for his run blocking skills and I'd have Wilkerson, Taylor and Houston eating up the middle while Orakpo and Dion Jordan could come off the sides.
Run Defense
I have a ton of flexibility. Taylor as the 0-technique (or 1). Kelly who can play the 3, while Houston and Wilkerson can bump between the 5 & 7. This team would be hell to run on. We are weakest at MLB but I think our line is so good Brinkley, Jones, and Johnson will be open to hit holes.
Pass Rush
Kelly up the middle (when healthy he would be tough to lose). Orakpo and Jordan on the outsides. I think Jordan was underutilized in Miami's D as a 4-3 DE when the already have Wake coming off the edge. I think in our D he'd be a much more complimentary piece in the 3-4 who could drop back on athletic TEs (much like what we saw with Collins in the playoffs).
Pass Defense
Grimes was a top 5 CB in the NFL last year and was the only CB (w/ at least 700 snaps) to not allow a single TD. Byrd played at All-Pro level once he saw the field. Arrington is very well used in the slot. So our biggest concern is CB2, where Arrington can play but struggles. I think we could leave Grimes on an island and give our CB2 help over the top with Byrd.

Overall I think from top to bottom this is one of the better Ds in the league. The Rams were good but are very top heavy (shown below).

McCoy is a beast by he's 65% of their defenses value. I think the Rams have a few dominant players but not the depth and middle of the road players to be successful over a full season.

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Mar 19, 2014

And finally if any of you are still reading (I wouldn't be surprised if many stopped at The Case for Eli), Special Teams

[tablegrid= Special Teams ] Cardinals Rams 49ers Seahawks K Jay Feely 21.1 Shaun Suisham 1.7 Dan Bailey 41.3 Phil Dawson 25.1 P Dustin Colquitt 10.6 Donnie Jones 6.1 Johnny Hekker 35.2 Jon Ryan 6.2 [/tablegrid]

49ers had the best specialists in our whole league. Hekker was a First Team All Pro, while Dan Bailey only missed 2 kicks all year (one was a 56 yarder). If this comes down to a coin flip I think the 49ers take it with these two.

Conclusion
Would Eli be better with my O-Line? Yes
This team would be drastically different from the 2013 NYG even though Eli and David Wilson are on both teams. I think this D can keep up with anyone and ST puts them over the top. At the very worst this team is battling for a wild card spot.

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Mar 19, 2014

Nice job, DoDM. Really great breakdown and analysis of your team. I think your Niners take the division. I think the special teams were a large part in why your team would have succeeded over the Rams.

I have this division as:

1. Niners
2. Rams
3. Cards
4. Hawks

Crazy, that the best QB in the division comes in third but he didn't have a lot of help.

SMU_Sox · Mar 19, 2014

Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
Nice job, DoDM. Really great breakdown and analysis of your team. I think your Niners take the division. I think the special teams were a large part in why your team would have succeeded over the Rams.

I have this division as:

1. Niners
2. Rams
3. Cards
4. Hawks

Crazy, that the best QB in the division comes in third but he didn't have a lot of help.

Same order here too. Really impressive array of talent on both sides of the ball and especially the O and D lines.

DaughtersofDougMirabelli · Mar 20, 2014

Thanks guys. I'm obviously biased and from an outsiders view (and especially as Pats fans) I'd have a hard time given Eli any credit but after putting that aside I do believe he'd be much better behind my offensive line.

I don't think the 9ers are the best team in the league but as we've seen before with a good D and the right pieces this team could get hot and make a run. Though the Rams did put together a really good squad with a couple more shiny players in Cam, Fitz, & McCoy.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Mar 20, 2014

Lets get a poll up soon so we can move on to the Wild Card voting and then the playoffs.

RealFantasy NFC West Discussion and Breakdown

Who's the Best in the West?

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queer eye for the next pats guy

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