1. Same format as NFL playoffs, byes to 1-2 seeds in the Wild Card round.

2. Seeding among division winners determined by highest vote percentage in divisional polls, ties broken by coinflip. Seeding of wild cards determined by higher vote percentage in the Wild Card poll.

As things stand, seeds would be:

AFC

1. Broncos or Jags

2. Broncos or Jags

3. Bengals

4. Bills

5. Patriots

6. Browns

NFC

1. Falcons

2. 49ers

3. Skins

4. Bears

5. Rams

6. Bucs

3. Determining outcomes of playoff games. There's strong sentiment for introducing an element of luck into the equation in the playoffs so here is my proposal:

First, we don't vote on a winner. We discuss the matchup and then vote on a point spread for the game. The poll will present any option from -10 to +10 and then we'll take the average from all the votes (throwing out the highest and lowest vote to avoid people making crazy choices and introducing outliers). People will be encouraged to take into account HFA in making their spread votes.

Each round of the playoffs will start with a thread opened on a Thursday (starting next Thursday). We take the week to discuss, vote on the point spread, and then determine the odds of each team winning using this chart (expected probabilities). Who wins is then determined by the first ball drawn in the Powerball drawing held the next Wednesday. The first ball can be any number 1-59. The table below shows point spreads, estimated win probabilities based on those spreads, and the the equivalent number of balls and odds for the underdog. So if we vote on the spread and make one team a 7 point dog, then that team wins the game if the first ball drawn is number 1-17, or about a 28% chance.

[tablegrid= Randomizing Outcomes Through Powerball ]Spread Estimated Win Probability Powerballs for Underdog Powerball Odds 0 50.00% 29 0.491525424 1 46.70% 28 0.474576271 1.5 45.00% 27 0.457627119 2 43.40% 26 0.440677966 2.5 41.80% 25 0.423728814 3 40.20% 24 0.406779661 3.5 38.60% 23 0.389830508 4 37.10% 22 0.372881356 4.5 35.60% 21 0.355932203 5 34.10% 20 0.338983051 5.5 32.60% 19 0.322033898 6 31.20% 18 0.305084746 6.5 29.80% 17 0.288135593 7 28.40% 17 0.288135593 7.5 27.10% 16 0.271186441 8 25.80% 15 0.254237288 8.5 24.60% 15 0.254237288 9 23.30% 14 0.237288136 9.5 22.20% 14 0.237288136 10 21.10% 13 0.220338983 [/tablegrid]

Thoughts? I like the Powerball method because it adds a little drama and also means me or somebody else isn't responsible for doing the randomization each week and then just reporting it.