RealFantasy Playoffs - Proposal

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Jul 2, 2006
22,583
Philadelphia
I'll let the Wild Card votes run through the weekend but I want to get this thing moving forward soon and figured that we could use this thread to iron out any final details regarding how to run the playoffs. This is what I'm thinking.

1. Same format as NFL playoffs, byes to 1-2 seeds in the Wild Card round.

2. Seeding among division winners determined by highest vote percentage in divisional polls, ties broken by coinflip. Seeding of wild cards determined by higher vote percentage in the Wild Card poll.

As things stand, seeds would be:

AFC

1. Broncos or Jags
2. Broncos or Jags
3. Bengals
4. Bills
5. Patriots
6. Browns

NFC

1. Falcons
2. 49ers
3. Skins
4. Bears
5. Rams
6. Bucs

3. Determining outcomes of playoff games. There's strong sentiment for introducing an element of luck into the equation in the playoffs so here is my proposal:

First, we don't vote on a winner. We discuss the matchup and then vote on a point spread for the game. The poll will present any option from -10 to +10 and then we'll take the average from all the votes (throwing out the highest and lowest vote to avoid people making crazy choices and introducing outliers). People will be encouraged to take into account HFA in making their spread votes.

Each round of the playoffs will start with a thread opened on a Thursday (starting next Thursday).  We take  the week to discuss, vote on the point spread, and then determine the odds of each team winning using this chart (expected probabilities).  Who wins is then determined by the first ball drawn in the Powerball drawing held the next Wednesday.  The first ball can be any number 1-59.  The table below shows point spreads, estimated win probabilities based on those spreads, and the the equivalent number of balls and odds for the underdog.  So if we vote on the spread and make one team a 7 point dog, then that team wins the game if the first ball drawn is number 1-17, or about a 28% chance.
 
[tablegrid= Randomizing Outcomes Through Powerball ]Spread Estimated Win Probability Powerballs for Underdog Powerball Odds 0 50.00% 29 0.491525424 1 46.70% 28 0.474576271 1.5 45.00% 27 0.457627119 2 43.40% 26 0.440677966 2.5 41.80% 25 0.423728814 3 40.20% 24 0.406779661 3.5 38.60% 23 0.389830508 4 37.10% 22 0.372881356 4.5 35.60% 21 0.355932203 5 34.10% 20 0.338983051 5.5 32.60% 19 0.322033898 6 31.20% 18 0.305084746 6.5 29.80% 17 0.288135593 7 28.40% 17 0.288135593 7.5 27.10% 16 0.271186441 8 25.80% 15 0.254237288 8.5 24.60% 15 0.254237288 9 23.30% 14 0.237288136 9.5 22.20% 14 0.237288136 10 21.10% 13 0.220338983 [/tablegrid]
 
Thoughts?  I like the Powerball method because it adds a little drama and also means me or somebody else isn't responsible for doing the randomization each week and then just reporting it.
 
 

soxfan121

JAG
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Dec 22, 2002
23,043
I like it. Especially because I don't have to understand it or actually do the math. And the addition of a smokescreen is a big plus. 
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
9,072
Philly
I love this idea. Because sometimes the best team doesn't win. How many times have we seen a loaded Colts team meet their demise early to an inferior squad? Yes. Yes. Yes. JL is on board.
 

Dollar

Member
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May 5, 2006
11,428
Love it as well.  I would also like to suggest making the voting public, and only including the votes of those with RealFantasy teams.
 

soxfan121

JAG
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Dec 22, 2002
23,043
FWIW, it looks like the Lions have overtaken the Bucs in the voting polls this weekend.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,583
Philadelphia
I mentioned this in each of the relevant threads but reposting here too.
 
I'm changing the powerball system somewhat so that the outcomes of the games are not so dependent on each other.  If all the games were decided by the first ball drawn in powerball (as originally planned), then a low number would mean all underdogs won and a high number would mean all favorites won.  Having the outcomes connected like that seems undesirable.  So instead each game will be decided by a different ball.
 
A lot of powerball results sites will not list the winning numbers in the order drawn, but in ascending order.  Here is one that lists them correctly in the order drawn.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

Member
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May 11, 2011
10,511
NH
That's a pretty nice system you devised. Seems very fair. I really like how the decision is "up in the air." It gives it an any given Sunday kind of feel. Great job MMS.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,583
Philadelphia
Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
That's a pretty nice system you devised. Seems very fair. I really like how the decision is "up in the air." It gives it an any given Sunday kind of feel. Great job MMS.
 
Thanks man.  Good luck!  Drawing is at 11 EST I believe.