Red Sox Deadline Discussion (nothing is credible) thread

[BosRedSox5]

I don't have a linkable source for this....has anyone else heard of the Phillies essentially demanding hamels/papelbon be packaged together?

 
No, and I feel like that would be bigger news. 

I don't believe it because:

1.) Surely they have more value when sold separately.
2.) I don't think there's a team that could take on that much payroll without giving something back... and how would that work?

 

[jscola85]

 
No doubt that Greinke is going to get a lot of money.  But I think he may be worth it.  He's been as good or better than Scherzer and Lester for a longer period of time and he's been very durable.  If there was a guy over 30 I'd give a huge deal to he'd be at or near the top of the list.

 
I agree - he's won wherever he's been and been remarkably consistent.  I'm not necessarily advocating the Hamels route, just was highlighting why the FO might prefer it, particularly given their aversion to deals of 5+ years.

 

[johnnywayback]

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/624233686150586368
 
Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats  5m5 minutes ago
Rosenthal on 98.5 talking Teheran, makes it sound like there is a possible match there with ATL/BOS given direction of franchises and needs.
 
Certainly seems to be the kind of guy we'd be wanting to target.

 

[BosRedSox5]

JBJ's name has been in a lot of ATL rumors.

 
Anything recent? They seem to have been interested in February, and he's been showing his worth in AAA, but I wonder if they're still interested. He certainly seems like a piece of the puzzle if we want Teheran, although one has to wonder what happened. Two years of being a 4 WAR pitcher who looked like a stud and now he's kind of middle of the road? Are the Braves really not wanting to pay his arbitration years? 

 

[czar]

While I certainly would be extremely interested in Teheran, it's worth noting that the fact his control seems to have regressed this year (and taken his DIPS-type predictors with it) may be suppressing his value or making Atlanta feel he could be expendable if they get help somewhere else.

 

[johnnywayback]

They have a ton of young pitching, which may make him somewhat expendable.  But he's 24 (!) and signed to a very reasonable contract.
 
2016 $3.3M
2017 $6.3M
2018 $8M
2019 $11M
2020 $12M team option w/ $1M buyout

 

[czar]

Also worth noting...
 
Teheran 2013-2014: 22% K%, 6% BB%, 100 xFIP+ (lower is better)
Porcello 2013-2014: 17% K%, 5% BB%, 87 xFIP+
Miley 2013-2014: 19% K%, 8% BB%, 97 xFIP+
 
So, outside of perhaps age (Teheran is 2 years younger than Porcello, 3.5 than Miley), I wouldn't be clamoring for Teheran if I was one of the people who are in the "Porcello and Miley suck and this team doesn't need any more 3/4 type starters."

 

[soxhop411]

“@JeffPassan: Sources: Cleveland has been willing to listen on pitching, particularly Carlos Carrasco. May be a match there with Toronto. They've talked.”

 

[E5 Yaz]

“@JeffPassan: Sources: Cleveland has been willing to listen on pitching, particularly Carlos Carrasco. May be a match there with Toronto. They've talked.”

 
Since this doesn't involve the Red Sox, shouldn't it be in the MLB Deadline thread?

 

[soxhop411]

 
Since this doesn't involve the Red Sox, shouldn't it be in the MLB Deadline thread?

Isn't this the type of pitcher the sox were said to be targeting? (Cheap young and under control?)

Which is why we were talking about gray a few weeks ago.

Edit: yes

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/red-sox-prioritizing-young-arms-in-trades.html

This is exactly the type of pitcher they are targeting

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Isn't this the type of pitcher the sox were said to be targeting? (Cheap young and under control?)

Which is why we were talking about gray a few weeks ago.

 
You put in the title of this thread "Credible rumors".  There's no mention of the Red Sox being tied to Carrasco.  Thus it hardly qualifies as a "credible rumor" about a Red Sox deadline deal.
 
Talking about whether or not the Sox should get involved on Carrasco seems like fodder for a separate thread.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Isn't this the type of pitcher the sox were said to be targeting? (Cheap young and under control?)

Which is why we were talking about gray a few weeks ago.

Edit: yes

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/red-sox-prioritizing-young-arms-in-trades.html

This is exactly the type of pitcher they are targeting

 
That posters were throwing his name out doesn't make it a credible rumor. That the rumor itself doesn't involve the Red Sox doesn't make it relevant for this thread.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

A 28 year old under cheap contract with a 2.81 and 2.44 FIP over the last 2 years? If he's on the market the Red Sox better be talking about him. I'd take him over Cueto or Hamels any day.

 

[BosRedSox5]

There's evidence that Carrasco is being shopped, but no connection at all to the Red Sox. 

I love wild speculation and throwing names against the wall, but this thread is for credible stuff only. It's a way to keep all the good intel we have in one place. If you see a report from someone with press credentials and they say a source told them the Sox are swapping named with the Tribe regarding Carrasco that's cool. If you want to say "Carrasco is the tits! We should trade for him!!!" This doesn't seem like the right place. 

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Not sure I get why Cleveland would move him. They've got a plausible shot at the tournament still, and look like a team that can do some damage if they get there.

 

[RedSox040713]

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/624373246100697088
Koji?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/624373246100697088
Koji?

Well, he is the only reliever in the league....

Seriously it's not tough. If you have a link to a credible source that involves the Red Sox post it. Otherwise stfu or post it somewhere else. This isn't difficult.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Well, he is the only reliever in the league....

Seriously it's not tough. If you have a link to a credible source that involves the Red Sox post it. Otherwise stfu or post it somewhere else. This isn't difficult.

Agreed. All though to be fair they were linked to Koji last year so maybe this warrents some following.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

While I certainly would be extremely interested in Teheran, it's worth noting that the fact his control seems to have regressed this year (and taken his DIPS-type predictors with it) may be suppressing his value or making Atlanta feel he could be expendable if they get help somewhere else.

 
His fastball velocity seems mostly in line with his career norms, aside from 3 starts (#4, #9, #11) where there was a noticeable dip to 90 or below. For the most part, his two-seamer has been thrown harder than in previous years, and early on it seemed as if his slider lost some velocity, but that has also returned in recent starts. 
 
He was pretty bad in his start against Boston, and it seems he threw a lot of pitches right down the middle in that game. 

 

[soxhop411]

“@redsoxstats: Jayson Stark on Baseball Tonight says the Red Sox are in and actively trying to get Cole Hamels. Trying to agree on prospect package.”

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Ugh.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

“@redsoxstats: Jayson Stark on Baseball Tonight says the Red Sox are in and actively trying to get Cole Hamels. Trying to agree on prospect package.”

this makes me feel sadder about what happened with Lester
 
edit: Red Sox Stats sums it up well:
 
Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats  5m5 minutes ago
Can't wait for the backtracking from the holier-than-thou talk of over-30 pitchers, big contracts, mileage... plus trading prospects for it.

 

[RedSox040713]

I just don't get it, why trade prospects? What is this team doing?

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Even talking about it is an admission that our failure to get him in the offseason was a huge mistake.

 

[Pilgrim]

http://www.nj.com/phillies/index.ssf/2015/07/cole_hamels_trade_rumors_chicago_cubs_and_phillies.html
 
The Cubs have apparently offered Javier Baez who, whatever his faults, is hitting  314/386/536 in AAA right now.  Would not be thrilled to beat that offer.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Are they seriously delusional enough to think they have a postseason shot? They should full on dump/tank. Play the kids and ride it out. Get a SP in the offseason. Jesus fuck, if they give up anyone ranked above top 15 in the system BC should be drawn and quartered. He needs to get canned anyway, but pissing away your farm system is beyond a fireable offense.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

Are they seriously delusional enough to think they have a postseason shot? They should full on dump/tank. Play the kids and ride it out. Get a SP in the offseason. Jesus fuck, if they give up anyone ranked above top 15 in the system BC should be drawn and quartered. He needs to get canned anyway, but pissing away your farm system is beyond a fireable offense.

I don't think this deal would be about 2015, but I still don't like it if a top prospect(s) would be moved

 

[The Gray Eagle]

“@redsoxstats: Jayson Stark on Baseball Tonight says the Red Sox are in and actively trying to get Cole Hamels. Trying to agree on prospect package.”

That is a horrifying thought. They can't let this front office make a panic move and trade a lot of young talent. Allard Baird has been scouting Hamels a lot lately, and this has disaster written all over it. Hamels is 5-7 3.91 this year pitching in the no-DH league. 
 
Seriously, if Cherington trusts Baird's advice and gives up a lot of good young talent for an expensive 31-year-old guy with terrible numbers against the AL, he should be fired. Frankly, if he is seriously even considering giving up a lot for Hamels right now, then he probably should be fired. We have the worst record in the league. Hamels is 8-15, 4.73 in 190 career innings against the AL.  
 
Age 31: $23.5 million
Age 32: $23.5 million
Age 33: $23.5 million
Age 34: $23.5 million
Age 35: $20 million team option ($24 million vesting option) that reportedly would have to be picked up for him to agree to go to the last-place Red Sox.
 
Maybe we're also taking on Howard, Utley and Jeff Francoeur too, they seem like the kind of players we would be after lately.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Hamels isn't even much of an asset these days, and giving up top prospects for him would be terrible.
 
This only makes partial sense if we're dumping Sandoval on the Phillies, which would still be nonsense.
 
Even if the Phillies over valued guys like Cecchini, I wouldn't be thrilled at taking on a declining Hamels and his contract.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I don't think this deal would be about 2015, but I still don't like it if a top prospect(s) would be moved

Whether it's "about" 2015 or not, it would impact that rest of the season. There's literally otherwise zero reason for trade for him now when there are multiple pitchers equal or better than him that are available for only money in a couple months. This would be the baseball equivalent of polishing the brass on the Titanic.

 

[nattysez]

FWIW, Marrero was scratched from the starting lineup late today and Castillo has been out for a few days for unspecified reasons, so it would not be shocking if either of those guys is included in a deal.  If the Sox are already punting on Castillo, having some of his $ offset the cost of Hamels might be reasonable.
 
That said, I'm entirely unconvinced that Hamels can be an ace starter in the AL at this point.  Even if the deal was something like Marrero, Castillo, Cecchini and JBJ for Hamels and Paps, spending $40mm on third (Hamels, optimistically) and fifth (Porcello, optimistically) starters seems inadvisable.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

Whether it's "about" 2015 or not, it would impact that rest of the season. There's literally otherwise zero reason for trade for him now when there are multiple pitchers equal or better than him that are available for only money in a couple months. This would be the baseball equivalent of polishing the brass on the Titanic.

good point, and even without your smart observation, I would have no interest in trading a top prospect (let alone more than one) for Hamels.  

 

[ArgentinaSOXfan]

Not that I agree with the philosophy or the "label", but the Sox see Hamels as:
- An Ace (I dont agree at this point)
- He is under control for 3 more years (2016-2018, plus a team option for another year)
- Its a short contract (3 years) at reasonable money considering that he is considered a top of the rotation guy and given the economics in Baseball.
- His value is going down, the Phillies wont be asking for Betts, as they did (reportedly) before the season.
 
Forget the Sox signing Price, Greinke, Cueto this offseason. They dont feel comfortable with that much money + years (mostly, long contracts).
 
Their next best shot at getting some stud with the right contract terms is someone like Hamels, plus it wont require to empty the farm or part with our best prospects (that is what it would take if the A's decided to put Sonny Gray on the table, for example).
 
I reallly doubt that Hamels would put the numbers here in Boston, but thats my impression. Other than that, he fills every other aspect from the Sox standpoint IMO.

 

[ArgentinaSOXfan]

Why trade for him now though? There will be other deals on the offseason, why ruin flexibility and blow your load on a guy who does nothing for your team this year. Unless it's a PR move designed to show.....something.

This team has a ton of work to do, I'm not sure adding a high priced pitcher at the expense of several prospects even helps in the short term enough to matter.

 
Well, I for one dont believe he will be wearing a Phillies uniform after the deadline. Either us or another team will pull the trigger. 
 
 
Edit: Name some top of the rotation starters, with "reasonable" contracts (with at least 3 years remaining in their contracts), that wont be that much expensive in the trade market and that could be available during the offseason.

 

[Laser Show]

I have been against trading for Hamels from the start because I don't want to give up talent for the right to pay that money to him. I would've rather just paid extra money to Lester or someone else.

Hamels performance this year only strengthens my opinion: NO

 

[bosockboy]

I'll reserve judgment until hearing the package heading that way. I'm not totally against unorthodox deals and buying from the cellar.

There's limited opportunities to acquire talent, and if it's the right deal to build for 2016 so be it. And our system is a bit swollen--the Cecchini's and Marrero's of the world have to be moved at some point.

 

[MuzzyField]

Cole is too old to factor into the next core's championship run. Never mind giving the Phillies a prospect haul.

 

[ArgentinaSOXfan]

I don't know, but I would rather wait and see. I don't see the urgency, unless someone is trying to save their job. This team has a lot of holes, just adding Hamels limits what else they can do next year. I don't think he makes enough of a difference.

 
To me it all comes down to the last part of your post, how the Sox value him from a pitching standpoint. Is he good enough? Would he translate well to our league/division? 
 
If they believe he can be at least a good/solid number two, then it would make sense to pull the trigger. 
 
It would be a mistake if someone sees acquiring Hamels as a present day thing, which of course he could help with. Its about the right moment to acquire the right pitcher at the right cost.
 
Im not excited about Hamels, but I can see the logic from the Sox FO point of view.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I'll reserve judgment until hearing the package heading that way. I'm not totally against unorthodox deals and buying from the cellar.

There's limited opportunities to acquire talent, and if it's the right deal to build for 2016 so be it. And our system is a bit swollen--the Cecchini's and Marrero's of the world have to be moved at some point.

Well sure, if they can get him for Ceccchini, Marrero, Coyle and a bag of crap, knock yourself out. But that's not realistic, despite what people like Drek17 want to blow up your brown eye (seriously Drek, how's that Coyle/Workman trade for Cueto look these days?).

If MacPhail brings some reasonable expectations to the table that Amaro is getting kicked away from, then sure lets talk. But even still, this team shrouding go higher than Owens as the centerpiece.

 

[nattysez]

 
To me it all comes down to the last part of your post, how the Sox value him from a pitching standpoint. Is he good enough? Would he translate well to our league/division? 
 
If they believe he can be at least a good/solid number two, then it would make sense to pull the trigger. 
 
It would be a mistake if someone sees acquiring Hamels as a present day thing, which of course he could help with. Its about the right moment to acquire the right pitcher at the right cost.
 
Im not excited about Hamels, but I can see the logic from the Sox FO point of view.

 
This is the FO that thought Porcello and Kelly were going to be competent starters.  Do you trust them to properly evaluate Hamels?

 

[grimshaw]

Given there are a lot of teams that want Hamels and hate dealing with RAJ, are we sure the Red Sox wouldn't be pushing to acquire him just to flip him elsewhere?

 

[strek1]

“@redsoxstats: Jayson Stark on Baseball Tonight says the Red Sox are in and actively trying to get Cole Hamels. Trying to agree on prospect package.”

For the umpteenth time I thought Hamels wouldn't go to Boston?  And now that they suck probably even less likely he goes along with the trade (Unless they give him some massive bonus?)  I say screw this deal if it involves even ONE top level prospect. We need them all.

 

[RedSox040713]

Marrero was scratched earlier today due to hamstring tightness so I'm of the opinion he likely will not be involved in any trade

 

[Rasputin]

For the umpteenth time I thought Hamels wouldn't go to Boston? 

I think you're remembering that wrong. There have been reported lately that he'd be cool with it even with the Sox in last place.

I say screw this deal if it involves even ONE top level prospect. We need them all.

I'm not entirely convinced he's the right guy but we need someone who can pitch at a high level who is under control for several years. We can't just pull one out of our asses and is going to take good prospects to get one. The younger and cheaper he is, the higher the prospect cost.

The devil is going to be in the details, of course, but we can put together a pretty good package that doesn't include the guys we least want to deal.

The problem for me is JBJ and Margot. I don't have much confidence in Castillo which means that right now Margot is our best internal option if Ramirez moves to DH in 2017.

I'd hate to lose Margot but I think I'd hate to lose Moncada or Devers more.

 

[MikeM]

I just don't get it, why trade prospects? What is this team doing?

 
Trying to avoid those 1 or 2 dreaded back years on a top flight MLB free agent starter that will surely sink this franchise 5+ years from now. More so then all the other risks and dead money piling up in the meantime.
 
Agree with most here that waiting seems best, although i do believe Ruben stated a willingness a while back to eat some money if it meant getting the right deal done. So kinda left guessing the potential of that plus the shorter years factor might come of as a better alternative option for Ben given our long standing reluctance to dive head first into free agency. 
 
IDK, if Philly was eating a chunk of money i might be able to get behind the concept. 

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Why trade for him now though? There will be other deals on the offseason, why ruin flexibility and blow your load on a guy who does nothing for your team this year. Unless it's a PR move designed to show.....something.

This team has a ton of work to do, I'm not sure adding a high priced pitcher at the expense of several prospects even helps in the short term enough to matter.

Probably has something to do with the dumb 30 million a year contracts that will probably be given out during the off-season. I wouldn't deal Moncada or Devers but anyone else? Sure.

I'll take 4 years at now market rate. This move isn't about this year if it happens at all which I'm skeptical it will because of Ruben

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Straight up for Rusney? Sure. Otherwise, no thank you. As lasershow said above, I've been against acquiring Hamels since day one. Nothing has changed my mind since then.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Straight up for Rusney? Sure. Otherwise, no thank you. As lasershow said above, I've been against acquiring Hamels since day one. Nothing has changed my mind since then.

I'm not exactly sure he's a true #1 but who else would you rather have? The team has the best farm system in the game and eventually they won't have room for all of these guys. Teams love prospects. Young controllable talent. So if you're going to go out and trade for a top of the rotation guy you're going to have to give a few of these up.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Tyrone, I'd rather see us package some prospects for a Sonny Gray type and not someone whose best days are behind him and makes tens of millions of dollars. As I doubt we'd acquire someone like that via a trade, spending money in the offseason for a stud pitcher would be my preferred option.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Tyrone, I'd rather see us package some prospects for a Sonny Gray type and not someone whose best days are behind him and makes tens of millions of dollars. As I doubt we'd acquire someone like that via a trade, spending money in the offseason for a stud pitcher would be my preferred option.

I would agree with you 100%. But the thing is Gray probably is not available nor anyone like him. So then they are left with two options free agency or trade for someone like Hamels. To be honest the way this team pitched I'm not even sure them signing Lester in the offseason or spring training last year would have solved anything. Just an absolute mess.