Red Sox Deadline Discussion (nothing is credible) thread

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Napoli has been very bad at the plate this year but I think he'd be a potentially nice pickup for a contender.

Still has very good power some can be a late inning long ball threat as a PH.

Outstanding base runner.

Very good fielding 1b so he could be one of those double switch kind of guys in the NL.

Leadership and championship experience.

The Sox can't expect to get much for him but he could still be a valuable piece to a team still in the hunt.

 
Pretty much every indication points to Napoli being toast as a hitter. His power is compromised, his strike zone judgement has been thrown off kilter by the expanding strike zone and his mechanics are a mess. The .com has done a bunch of good work looking at him this season.
 
And what about his base running says "outstanding" to you? Fangraphs has him ranked 105th in base running value and he's never been a base stealer. Now, that base running metric is suspect, but the point I'm making by citing it is that there isn't any evidence to back up calling him and "outstanding" base runner. I don't see any reason to think a team would value him for what he does with his legs.
 
The defense is still nice but I also can't recall ever reading anything that describes him as a leadership guy, either. What can you point to here? That he's a veteran and happened to be on a championship team?
 
The Pirates might be interested in him, but it's not likely to be for anything more than improved defense and the hope that they can catch lightning in a bottle with a hot streak at the plate.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

 
The opportunity value being opened up in their departure is worth more then anything Nap/Vic are going to give us the rest of the way.
 
You do that trade even if we are left paying 100% of the salary imo. Which would probably make a lot more sense from the Huntington perspective too. 

For Vic, sure - get Rusney or JBJ some run.

For Nap, I disagree. Mostly because I don't see any opportunity lost - they have crap for 1B prospects and I don't subscribe to the lunacy theories of moving Hanley there mid season. I could give less than a shit if Travis Shaw gets a chance because I'm pretty confident that he sucks. So I don't really care to see a grumpy Ortiz quicken his decline or Holt wasting his value by being tied to the 1B bag.

 

[BosRedSox5]

Sure, they don't have much depth at 1B, but play Nava. See if he can recapture some 2013 magic. Maybe Travis Shaw does suck, but we just need a warm body in there.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Which is a good stance and not one I'm completely opposed to. I simply meant I don't see any opportunity cost lost. Nava recapturing 2013 is pretty low on the value scale for me but others can certainly disagree. I don't see him as being a member of the next contending Red Sox team so as much as I loved his story, I'm willing to consider the fact he was lightning in a bottle.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Sure, they don't have much depth at 1B, but play Nava. See if he can recapture some 2013 magic. Maybe Travis Shaw does suck, but we just need a warm body in there.

 
I have to agree with this.  Napoli is gone at the end of the year regardless of what they do, and there's little left to gain from him playing.  Whereas Shaw and Nava, while not inspiring, are potentially going to be around in 2016 (they're under team control, at least).  I don't think there's much harm in moving on from Napoli and giving those two a chance (perhaps a final one) to show something.

 

[NDame616]

Sure, they don't have much depth at 1B, but play Nava. See if he can recapture some 2013 magic. Maybe Travis Shaw does suck, but we just need a warm body in there.

What exactly about Nava, who's sporting a .159 BA and 26 OPS+, makes you think he should be a full time 1B?

 

[BosRedSox5]

What exactly about Nava, who's sporting a .159 BA and 26 OPS+, makes you think he should be a full time 1B?

The fact he was awesome in 2013 and decent in 2014... And the fact that we're better off with a player who will be around next season getting PT than Napoli.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

And what about his base running says "outstanding" to you? Fangraphs has him ranked 105th in base running value and he's never been a base stealer. Now, that base running metric is suspect, but the point I'm making by citing it is that there isn't any evidence to back up calling him and "outstanding" base runner. I don't see any reason to think a team would value him for what he does with his legs.

 
How about, he's an outstanding baserunner for a mid-30s ex-catcher with a bad hip?
 
I mean, seriously, of course there are pretty severe athletic limitations on his baserunning ability. But ivanvamp is not the only one who has noticed that within those limits, he's a smart baserunner and not actually dead slow. 
 
Put it this way: his baserunning is more or less average, and given the rest of his profile, that's pretty surprising. Maybe that's an odd definition of "outstanding," but it's still true, and could make him a bit easier to move.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

 
I have to agree with this.  Napoli is gone at the end of the year regardless of what they do, and there's little left to gain from him playing.  Whereas Shaw and Nava, while not inspiring, are potentially going to be around in 2016 (they're under team control, at least).  I don't think there's much harm in moving on from Napoli and giving those two a chance (perhaps a final one) to show something.

If he goes on one of his tears I could perhaps see the Sox doing a 1 year incentive based deal. You have that option or moving Hanley to first or Panda to 1st and Hanley to 3rd. It's been bad for everyone on this team not just Napoli.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
How about, he's an outstanding baserunner for a mid-30s ex-catcher with a bad hip?
 
I mean, seriously, of course there are pretty severe athletic limitations on his baserunning ability. But ivanvamp is not the only one who has noticed that within those limits, he's a smart baserunner and not actually dead slow. 
 
Put it this way: his baserunning is more or less average, and given the rest of his profile, that's pretty surprising. Maybe that's an odd definition of "outstanding," but it's still true, and could make him a bit easier to move.

I admit I'm just basing that on comments made by Farrell and Castiglione regarding Napoli.

 

[AB in DC]

Napoli has been very bad at the plate this year but I think he'd be a potentially nice pickup for a contender.

Still has very good power some can be a late inning long ball threat as a PH.

Outstanding base runner.

Very good fielding 1b so he could be one of those double switch kind of guys in the NL.

Leadership and championship experience.

The Sox can't expect to get much for him but he could still be a valuable piece to a team still in the hunt.

 
And starting to turn it around at the plate.  In his last thirty games, he's slashing .237/.336/.387 -- not great, but not putrid, either.

 

[pdub]

You know what's insane? Everyone wants to trade Napoli, yet he has a higher OPS than Sandoval: .683-.672. Not that I think Napoli shouldn't be dealt, this is just food for thought. 

 

[BosRedSox5]

Is that really insane? Napoli is gone next season no matter what happens. Why not get something for him now? 

Also, I think nearly everyone wants to trade Sandoval... it's just impossible. 

 

[DJnVa]

 
And starting to turn it around at the plate.  In his last thirty games, he's slashing .237/.336/.387 -- not great, but not putrid, either.

 

It's kinda close to putrid. That "turning it around" number would have him 20th out of 25 in OPS among qualified 1B.

 

[AB in DC]

 
It's kinda close to putrid. That "turning it around" number would have him 20th out of 25 in OPS among qualified 1B.

 
In other words, "solid backup" instead of "waste of roster space".

 

[In my lifetime]

Is that really insane? Napoli is gone next season no matter what happens. Why not get something for him now?  

And exactly what are the RS going to get for Napoli? I am sure they would trade him in a heartbeat for nothing if someone would pick up the remainder of his salary. Even picking up his entire salary, the return for Napoli is going to be very meager now unless he is able to turn around his season.

 

[BosRedSox5]

And exactly what are the RS going to get for Napoli?

 
Who cares? Get something, anything for him. 

Let Nava play 1B against righties and Holt/Whatever righty they want vs. lefties? It's only a month until they can call up the whole 40 man. Can Bryce Brentz play 1B? Give him a go, who cares? Napoli was great in 2013 and 2014 for us. I love the guy, but he provides no value to the Red Sox at this point. He's not coming back next season so every at bat he gets is development time we could be giving to someone else. 

 

[The X Man Cometh]

 
Who cares? Get something, anything for him. 

Let Nava play 1B against righties and Holt/Whatever righty they want vs. lefties? It's only a month until they can call up the whole 40 man. Can Bryce Brentz play 1B? Give him a go, who cares? Napoli was great in 2013 and 2014 for us. I love the guy, but he provides no value to the Red Sox at this point. He's not coming back next season so every at bat he gets is development time we could be giving to someone else. 

 
Brentz is done for 2015 basically. Went under the knife for thumb surgery at the end of June.

 

[Pilgrim]

None of the other options are particularly interesting. It wouldn't be a horrible idea to hold Napoli past the deadline and hope he stays hot for a week or two and make a waiver trade.

 

[The Tax Man]

Today on .com, Cuzittt has reviewed the Sox trade deadline options.

 

[soxhop411]

“@jaysonst: #Pirates telling teams they’re likely to keep Pedro Alvarez - which would effectively end their hunt for other 1B upgrades”

 

[SouthernBoSox]

“@jaysonst: #Pirates telling teams they’re likely to keep Pedro Alvarez - which would effectively end their hunt for other 1B upgrades”

Why? A platoon of Alvarez and Napoli with Napoli acting as the right handed hitter and defensive replacement makes a ton of sense and is exactly the type of move the Pirates should make.  What's the downsized if the Red Sox eat most of the contract?

 

[jscola85]

Why? A platoon of Alvarez and Napoli with Napoli acting as the right handed hitter and defensive replacement makes a ton of sense and is exactly the type of move the Pirates should make.  What's the downsized if the Red Sox eat most of the contract?

 
Yeah, that logic doesn't add up, since they could dump Ishikawa and use Napoli on the bench.  Even in his current state, Napoli is probably more valuable than Ishikawa, once you ignore the contracts.

 

[JimD]

“@jaysonst: #Pirates telling teams they’re likely to keep Pedro Alvarez - which would effectively end their hunt for other 1B upgrades”

 
Because GM's always share their plans with the media while in the midst of negotiating with other teams.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Exactly
I have no idea if the Pirates plan on just staying with Alvarez or not and a report that they are telling teams that they are doesn't sway me one way or another.
It could be true or it could just be posturing so a team or teams they are negotiating with doesn't see them as desperate.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

 
Napoli's not coming back next season. 

Don't be so sure.  Wait-wait-wait-- let me finish!  Napoli has all the markings of a Ben Cherington buy-low (but pay too much) reclamation project next season.
 
Perhaps Napoli's surgery changed his sight lines (mentioned on ESPN broadcast by Schilling I believe) or his off-season regimen was interrupted by the extreme surgery.  Since there are not a lot of options at 1B next season, I could TOTALLY see Cherington giving him a 1/5 contract (yes, that's too much but we're talking Cherington here!) + PA incentives and worst case he platoons with a L bat (Chris Davis) and is the D replacement (yes, he's been shitty on D this season).  
 
Don't shoot the messenger (me!), Naps in '16 just has Ben Cherington buy-low all over it.   :barf:

 

[soxhop411]

is this some cryptic message?
 
https://twitter.com/Enrique_Rojas1/status/625778448657682433
 

 
They say in the corridors of Fenway Park that Shane Victorino will be West
 


 
 

•  

 

[soxhop411]

https://twitter.com/JuniorPepen/status/625782602461499393

 

[Corsi]

Industry source says Angels close to acquiring Shane Victorino.

https://twitter.com/TBrownYahoo/status/625787293337415680

https://twitter.com/TBrownYahoo/status/625787293337415680

link to tweet

 

[Corsi]

The Red Sox have announced the trade of Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for infielder Josh Rutledge.

 

[soxhop411]

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats  7m7 minutes ago
Cafardo on NESN says the Red Sox have told teams no on Holt, so far. Cards and Pirates coming for Napoli. "Lot's of action on Koji.

 

[soxhop411]

Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber  2m2 minutes ago
With five days until deadline, one rival official said "vultures are circling" #RedSox. Is Napoli next to go?

 

[Kramerica Industries]

 
Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats  7m7 minutes ago
Cafardo on NESN says the Red Sox have told teams no on Holt, so far. Cards and Pirates coming for Napoli. "Lot's of action on Koji.
 

 
 
I like Holt, I see his value but I don't get it. Why no? Am I wrong to view him a sell high?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
 
I like Holt, I see his value but I don't get it. Why no? Am I wrong to view him a sell high?

 
Maybe because they feel he'll give them more value over the next four years than some mystery prospect(s) or whatever else they're being offered.  He's making nothing, so there's no salary relief to gain.  It rightfully should take a significant return to pry him out at the moment.

 

[Marbleheader]

I'm sure most everyone is available at the right price, I'm guessing the offers just aren't blowing them away.

 

[jsinger121]

Holt is only valuable if they are going to move Pedroia this off season. I'd really look to move him before his 10/5 rights kick in.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Holt is only valuable if they are going to move Pedroia this off season. I'd really look to move him before his 10/5 rights kick in.

Pedroia? He has at lease a partial no trade clause and by some reports a full one. Which is to say nothing about even hinting at going down the road of this discussion again. It's idiocy. They're not trading Pedroia.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Holt is only valuable if they are going to move Pedroia this off season. I'd really look to move him before his 10/5 rights kick in.

 
Oh, you.
 
Pedroia dealing nonsense aside, the value of Holt, at least in my eyes, is that if there's an injury at 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF or RF, he can step right in and provide close to league average offense and defense, as opposed to scrambling for a Jemlie Weeks or Brent Lillibridge-to-nowhere. If everyone is healthy, he can just move around and keep guys fresh. I think that's pretty valuable.
 
The debate, really, is if that value outweighs what he can bring back either in a trade or as part of a package. 

 

[Pilgrim]

Holt is only valuable if they are going to move Pedroia this off season. I'd really look to move him before his 10/5 rights kick in.

How do you figure?  Hes been worth plenty playing as a bench player so far.  If anything, hes less valuable as a full time 2b.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Don't we have some junk folder where all "trade Pedroia" posts go to die .. Or at least languish in post hell?

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Holt might - emphasis on might - become an interesting question after 2016 when he's arb-eligible. In the meantime, no need to move him unless they're blown away. 

 

[TomRicardo]

Holt is only valuable if they are going to move Pedroia this off season. I'd really look to move him before his 10/5 rights kick in.

 
Pedroia already has a no trade (Red Sox made up some rule about giving no trades to people who played 8 years on the Sox.  He has no trade protection written into his contract)
 
Holt is valuable regardless if they trade Pedroia or not.  

 

[DJnVa]

 
 
I like Holt, I see his value but I don't get it. Why no? Am I wrong to view him a sell high?

 

What kind of prospect are you going to get for Holt. Yes, we all love him, but he's not bringing back any kind of top prospect. He's going to bring back the kind of prospect you hope turns into a player like him. And since he's already here, why roll the dice?

 

[BosRedSox5]

Holt is a sparkplug.
 
He's a good baserunner, a very strong defensive player with the flexibility to play 7 positions (I'd still like to see him pitch and catch in a 9 position game/publicity stunt in September), he's fast, a strong basestealer, and he can hit.
 
He's also still developing. 

Holt finished 2014 with a 2.1 WAR last season and he's got a 2.8 WAR right now and there's plenty of season left to play. Still, does WAR accurately measure the value of someone who, off the bench can fill in and provide above average hitting and defense for 7 positions? I've described him as a poor man's Ben Zobrist, but that's still pretty good. If someone gets injured for a month, Holt can fill in and play really well until they return. Someone needs a day off, Holt takes their spot and we won't miss a beat. 

What, exactly would we get for Holt? Only a contender would trade for him so that means no one ML ready would be coming back. You're talking maybe a decent RP prospect for him. That doesn't benefit us. Keep Brock. 

 

[ivanvamp]

If Holt really is that valuable and still very much cost controlled, why wouldn't a non-contender want him too?  Why would only contenders trade for him?

 

[Auger34]

 
What kind of prospect are you going to get for Holt. Yes, we all love him, but he's not bringing back any kind of top prospect. He's going to bring back the kind of prospect you hope turns into a player like him. And since he's already here, why roll the dice?

Are you sure about that? All the talk on Twitter has been about how if you have an available hitter you have gold in this market. We all know that this is the time of the year for overpays as well.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if trading Holt got us back a top prospect

 

[Thelobsterroll]

I am probably going to get jumped on for this but maybe there should be a separate thread dedicated to Holt's trade value? While I appreciate reading the debate, I am not sure if it meets the standards of credible rumors.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Start one.

 

[TomRicardo]

 
What kind of prospect are you going to get for Holt. Yes, we all love him, but he's not bringing back any kind of top prospect. He's going to bring back the kind of prospect you hope turns into a player like him. And since he's already here, why roll the dice?

 
You aren't
 
People like Holt are included in deals for bigger players.  The Red Sox are sellers.  You don't sell guys like Holt at the trade deadline.

 

[Green Monster]

Red Sox Claim Jean Machi from Giants..........Buchholz to 60 day DL
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/jean-machi-red-sox-claim.html