There has already been a lot of chatter about what sort of offers the Red Sox will give certain key free agents. The Red Sox approach should be particularly interesting to follow given their stated and observed new strategy--possibly geared to the post-steroid age--of finding limited year deals to maximize financial flexibility and possibly eschewing higher priced super-stars.
Early returns on this strategy have been promising. What remains to be seen is the degree to which they can stick to it or if market forces move their hand, and also how other teams in the market possibly rethink their own approach given both the success of the Red Sox and also what may be the realities of gambling on longer years and older players in the post steroid age.
To this end, this thread will aggregate posters' prediction about what different players in the market will ultimately get. There has been lots of discussion in other threads, so I thought it would be fun to bring things together here. I figure we can leave the banter in the other threads, but here, each poster can post their predictions and an explanation, and once we see a comparison, we can compare and contrast what people will think will happen and why.
Please consider the ramification of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement when making these predictions--otherwise your predictions will be dumb. Specifically, as per an mlb.com article from 2011:
If you are interested, you can find a nice explanation in long form, as well as an explanation of why they made the changes here. The Qualifying Offer for 2014 has been set at $14m.
In making predictions, predict what they will receive in the market in terms of Years/TotalSalary, and then what you think the highest the Red Sox will or should go (it remains to be seen if we will get this info in some cases); and then if you want to add some flair, predict what team will sign them. Obviously, you can also indicate that you think the player will end up taking the Qualifying Offer.
Example:
Drew, 3/45, QO, Detroit
I hear Detroit might need a short stop that can hit.
Here are the key players that have been discussed thus far:
Drew
Ellsbury
Napoli
Saltalamacchia
Let's see who can gauge the market.
Edit: QOs have to go out by 5pm on the 5th day after the World Series, so we'll know who got QOs by then, and I'll alter things accordingly.
Early returns on this strategy have been promising. What remains to be seen is the degree to which they can stick to it or if market forces move their hand, and also how other teams in the market possibly rethink their own approach given both the success of the Red Sox and also what may be the realities of gambling on longer years and older players in the post steroid age.
To this end, this thread will aggregate posters' prediction about what different players in the market will ultimately get. There has been lots of discussion in other threads, so I thought it would be fun to bring things together here. I figure we can leave the banter in the other threads, but here, each poster can post their predictions and an explanation, and once we see a comparison, we can compare and contrast what people will think will happen and why.
Please consider the ramification of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement when making these predictions--otherwise your predictions will be dumb. Specifically, as per an mlb.com article from 2011:
• The current compensation system for losing "Type A" and "Type B" free agents will be eliminated. Under the new system, teams will receive compensation for losing a free agent only if they offer -- and the player rejects -- a guaranteed one-year contract equal to the average salary of the league's 125 highest-paid players. Compensation for losing such players will consist of one Draft pick at the end of the first round.
• When clubs sign a compensation-eligible player, they will forfeit their own first-round selection, or their second-round selection if they pick in the top 10.
If you are interested, you can find a nice explanation in long form, as well as an explanation of why they made the changes here. The Qualifying Offer for 2014 has been set at $14m.
In making predictions, predict what they will receive in the market in terms of Years/TotalSalary, and then what you think the highest the Red Sox will or should go (it remains to be seen if we will get this info in some cases); and then if you want to add some flair, predict what team will sign them. Obviously, you can also indicate that you think the player will end up taking the Qualifying Offer.
Example:
Drew, 3/45, QO, Detroit
I hear Detroit might need a short stop that can hit.
Here are the key players that have been discussed thus far:
Drew
Ellsbury
Napoli
Saltalamacchia
Let's see who can gauge the market.
Edit: QOs have to go out by 5pm on the 5th day after the World Series, so we'll know who got QOs by then, and I'll alter things accordingly.