Not that I have much to add, but in following this thread, I wanted to add that with the new draft rules, I believe that free agency game is changing quite a bit. Right now, I think it's at a point where free agency may be at an inflection point where there are more "bargains" than overpays because teams are overvaluing their draft picks, more wary of long-term contracts and unsure as to how players will "age" in the "clean" MLB.
So, I'm in the camp of extending a QO to all 4 players*. If you can get them all back on a 1-year deals - that would be great. More importantly, the new draft rules make obtaining additional draft picks extremely valuable - so by extending the QO's to all four - there are four chances for additional draft picks.
Those compensatory draft picks put the Red Sox in a position of strength in bargaining.
Other teams can then decide do they want to not only pay big money for the players, but lose draft picks.
Again, I think the waters of free agency are not what they were - as big spenders in free agency have not had the on-field success and have murkier futures than those that have avoided the big splash in free agency. So, the Red Sox should make these offers:
Ellsbury: 3/$75; 4/$90; 5/$105
Drew: 2/$25
Saltalamacchia: 1/$14;
Napoli: 2/$25; 3/$33
If the player wants to make max compensation, go to arbitration and let the "value" be determined there - and play year-to-year. If security and more guaranteed money is desired, then they'll have to take a little less.
Of the four, Ellsbury is most likely to be gone.
Here are my predictions:
Ellsbury, Chicago White Sox 6/$150
Drew, Boston Red Sox 2/$25
Saltalamacchia, New York Yankees, 4/$32
Napoli, Boston Red Sox, 2/$25
* Note - it is now known that the Red Sox did offer arbitration to all but Salty - which is the right thing. Even with the flexibility of a 1-year deal; $14 million is too much and probably could get him signed for 2 years.