Good post. This to me is what's totally compelling about this off-season and going forward. How they balance need, opt-outs, position changes, youth and new-found financial flexibility are all really interesting, especially knowing that Bloom is in charge and has a laser-focus (assuming Warner doesn't blow that up and order Bloom to sign the next version of Sandoval).
That length of deal puts him in the weird age gap to hit a second free agency, it would be nice, but I'm guessing his agent would want to hit age 35. So, covering his ages 25-35 seasons is 11 years, first year being $11M projected, second year being $18M projected, then 30M from 27-35? That would be 11 year, $299M, $27M AAV. Seems reasonable. Maybe you can knock some of the last few years down in value and come out at about $25M AAV overall.
It also shouldn't approach Machado's deal because that was a free agent contract as opposed to extending a arb-eligible player with two years of control left.
Agreed. He should be seeking a 4-5 year high AAV deal or a lesser AAV for 10 years. And if I'm the Sox, I much prefer the former. Devers is not a paragon of conditioning. Years 7-10 could be Sandovalesque. (That's an exaggeration, I think, but it is actually a concern.)
Is the bolded really true? I know he's got a pudgy baby face, but he strikes me as fairly fit overall. He reportedly came into camp a couple years ago slimmer and employing a nutritionist, has avoided the IL, and has played in 369 (362 starts) of 384 total regular season games over the last three seasons. I know the Sandoval comparison is an exaggeration for effect, but it seems entirely misplaced to me.
His arm looked pretty injured in the playoffs this year. I wonder if it was just fatigue from the longer post-2020 season, or indicative of something worse given how hard he swings. If it's the latter, I wouldn't want to be on the hook for 10+ years for a guy with lingering arm problems.
Lingering arm problems seems like hyperbole to me. Especially based on one injury that was unlikely to be due to poor conditioning and was exacerbated by the playoff conditions (it would have to have detached from his body to get him out of the lineup). That doesn't really make a convincing argument that he's a risk to break down in his early 30s because he has poor conditioning.
Having a protected early second round pick really lessens the blow of signing a free agent. And if we’re signing one, it’s probably one of Semien, Correa or Story. (I don’t think Seager, with his similarity to Mayer and his defensive concerns, is our guy.) As much as I like Ray and Rodón, why chase them when you can re-sign E-Rod? Same goes for Conforto and Castellanos when you can re-sign Schwarber. Freeman stays in Atlanta, and I know some here disagree, but I think Chris Taylor stays in LA or otherwise won’t be worth the money.
Missed the rest of the year after a torn ACL in July. He's expected back, fully healthy, in the Spring. Lots of speed, we'll see if he's still got it come March.
You can't steal first base, but he tries. He has more career hit by pitches than walks.
Lots of positional flexibility, which is clearly something Bloom values. Can't help but view this as off-season filler though. Wouldn't surprise me if he's one of the first to go when they need a spot on the 40-man.
Why would Stroman sign to play in front of one of the worst infield defenses as an elite ground ball pitcher? Why would the Red Sox value that? Are you suggesting he is going to sign for 3 year, 48 million? Laughable.
A lot of mid-markets expected to spend big. SEA, TEX, DET, SF, just to name a few. There is going to be a ton of money out there.
A good contract to give Devers is a 5 year deal. It buys out 2 arbitration years and gets him a chance at another big contract at age 30. It's not tying the Red Sox down for a number of years and it gives Devers a chance at another bite at the apple in the prime of his career. Give him 5 and 125.
Hard for fans to know if it's really true. We noted it earlier in his career, and were certainly concerned about it after the layoff in 2020: https://bosoxinjection.com/2020/07/19/red-sox-rafael-devers-defense-conditioning-becoming-concern/
No I don't think that's going to happen. Casas is passable at 1st defensively but not at 3rd.
Raffy is one year younger than Bogaerts was when he signed his 6/$120m extension. Maybe Raffy takes the same deal plus that extra year? Like a 7/$140 extension with an opt-out after 2026?
I don't think he'll take 7 years because he's at that age where he could get a "bridge deal" to get money in his hand now and still get a chance to break the bank in free agency in the prime of his career.
I'm glad I could amuse you.
Stroman wants to win. He is a passionate guy that would love Boston and its fans. If the money is right he won't care what his numbers look like.
I'm assuming that the Red Sox would take steps to improve their infield defense. Ultimately, that is the other glaring weakness on this team. By your logic the Red Sox shouldn't try and sign Eduardo Rodriguez either because why would they value him if the outfield defense was so bad that his actual stats are so much worse than his peripherals.
I was thinking of Eovaldi's 4 year $17 million when I wrote it, and I was imagining a couple of factors. One is the uncertainty of the labor agreement, perhaps he would bite on a shorter contract. One that perhaps Stroman would like to get one more bite at the apple before his age 34 season when there is less labor uncertainty. Another is that I don't think he will get as much as the Ray's of the world because he is more of a pitch to contact kind of guy. Perhaps it's wishcasting, but are teams going to be throwing around 5 year/$100 contracts this winter for 30 year old pitchers? I'm not so sure.
If it includes an opt-out, that allows him to hit free agency near his prime to "break the bank". That said, I suspect it's going to take a bit more than the Bogaerts deal from a money perspective. As discussed upthread, 6 years for $150M-$180M is probably more in the ball park that would entice Devers to sign now.
Your 6/150 is the same AAV as the 5/125 that I suggested so I think we are both in the same ballpark as to what it may take for Devers to sign an extension. I do think doubling the amount of money he'd get in Years 1 and 2 of the deal would be enticement enough to sign on the dotted line. Keeping the extension short on years should also be pretty enticing for him(or including an opt out) so he can get to free agency faster. Or he can bet on himself, take the Mookie route of going year to year, and see what happens.
I don't know about that. The Astros bought out Alex Bregman's arbitration years and he signed for 5/100 at age 24 and he was coming off two seasons averaging 8 fWAR.
If Devers were anywhere close to the defensive player Arenado is, and also a free agent, I could see that contract being possible. But that's not the case. Devers and his agent might start there but no way is that what a final deal would look like if it gets done this winter.
This is in-line with what I'm seeing (mostly from the data in this thread). Between the contracts on the books now and when the next group of "core" players are ready to make contributions on the MLB roster, it tells me that Bloom was looking at 2023 as the opening of the next championship window. 2021 was a pleasant surprise to him, but he wasn't going to postpone 2023 for a chance at winning it all this year.
I think this may have been true as of last year, but doesn’t have much relevance now. We have three 5-win players in the last year of their contracts in 2022.
To the bolded, I don't see any free agent mega-deals that go past five years. I'm worried that includes X and Devers as well.
I don't think there is any chance Bloom and the FO will look solely at the playoffs yet even if they did the true holes in this team evolved during the playoffs as they did during the season...
I don't know about that. Yes, the Tampa model of roster building (versatile players, lots of young talent, etc) but I don't think every player is going to be dealt right before they hit free agency. The Red Sox have the payroll to pay some of those guys into their free agent years and still maintain fiscal responsibility.
I agree with the Dodgers analogy as an apt comparison as there may be exceptions to the rule because the Sox can afford it. For instance if they ever find another Ortiz-type player who has great value both on and off the field like the Dodgers might see with Mookie. But that speaks to brand as well as talent. I'm thinking that also includes use the cash to acquire short-term players to plug in (like Scherzer this year).
We throw around the “wants to win” bit a bunch in fandom but I want to also share this story I was reminded of today.
Yeah, probably the likely scenario is some good bullpen arms, and a starter. If Erod excepts a QO, that's your starter. If not, I suspect they line up a FA. I do think they will look to sign a couple bullpen arms, between established blue chips (Iglesias?), and guys with more hidden value. Then again, if JD opts out, seems like there's a good chance the team signs Schwarber.
