The more I think about this, the more I want to sign Shields. A few thoughts:
1. If you're going to mark down Shields for his postseason performance in 59 innings as not being clutch, you should probably look at his September performances over the years during playoff races:
2008: 2.72 ERA in his last 5 starts, Rays were not really in danger of missing the playoffs, but were tied for the division lead as late as Sep 15.
2010: 7.59 ERA in last 6 starts -- this was his worst season overall, really struggled in second half.
2011: 2.04 in final 7 starts, including 2 CG. As we know the Rays clinched the playoffs on the last day of the season, so every start had a lot of pressure.
2014: 2.04 ERA in final 6 starts. Royals had zero margin for error as they made the play-in game on the last day of the regular season.
So while his postseason performance leaves something to be desired, in 3 of 4 years in which his team was in a playoff hunt in September he was instrumental and pitched very well down the stretch. I won't bother to do the math but I bet if you add together the above starts with his postseason starts you'd probably get a similar ERA to his career numbers.
2. "Ace" is the most nebulous, overused term these days. There is no set definition which means that you can make any argument you want and move the goalposts whenever you want. Is it one of the best 30 pitchers in MLB? Does every team have one? Do they have to go deep in games as well as being good? Who knows. Lester is an ace except for when he's not, but he sure pitched like one in the playoffs so we need him! Hamels just doesn't have "ace" stuff because I said so. Etc., etc.
The fact is that there are lots of ways to win. Good starting pitching takes on increased importance in the playoffs, but the best, reliable starting pitching is incredibly expensive if it ever gets to free agency.
3. Hoping the Sox don't sign a good player just because you haven't liked him in the past is asinine. Maybe if we have reason to think they are actually a bad person, or they may be more likely to get suspended or something, sure, but come on.
4. Shields may not be a top ten pitcher by ERA or FIP, but he's thrown a hell of a lot of innings over a lot of years and has for the most part been very good. He's old-ish but I think his next two-three years are as predictable as anyone's, which is all you're really hoping to get when you sign a free agent pitcher.
I would make a very solid offer for Shields and hope you can sign him. I realize this may be in the 5/100 realm but I think it's a solid way to spend the money. He makes the team very good by knocking everyone else down one slot, and giving you insurance if Masterson doesn't return to form, Buchholz is bad or none of the prospects are ready.
Shields - Porcello - Buchholz - Miley - Kelly is a very good rotation, and Kelly seems like a great bullpen candidate if everyone is healthy and Masterson looks good. You also have Owens, Johnson, Barnes, Ranaudo in AAA in case of injuries.
Edit: Oh, and we've already lost two picks, so we'd just be losing a 4th rounder. Better to do that than to sign someone next year and maybe lose a 1st rounder.
1. If you're going to mark down Shields for his postseason performance in 59 innings as not being clutch, you should probably look at his September performances over the years during playoff races:
2008: 2.72 ERA in his last 5 starts, Rays were not really in danger of missing the playoffs, but were tied for the division lead as late as Sep 15.
2010: 7.59 ERA in last 6 starts -- this was his worst season overall, really struggled in second half.
2011: 2.04 in final 7 starts, including 2 CG. As we know the Rays clinched the playoffs on the last day of the season, so every start had a lot of pressure.
2014: 2.04 ERA in final 6 starts. Royals had zero margin for error as they made the play-in game on the last day of the regular season.
So while his postseason performance leaves something to be desired, in 3 of 4 years in which his team was in a playoff hunt in September he was instrumental and pitched very well down the stretch. I won't bother to do the math but I bet if you add together the above starts with his postseason starts you'd probably get a similar ERA to his career numbers.
2. "Ace" is the most nebulous, overused term these days. There is no set definition which means that you can make any argument you want and move the goalposts whenever you want. Is it one of the best 30 pitchers in MLB? Does every team have one? Do they have to go deep in games as well as being good? Who knows. Lester is an ace except for when he's not, but he sure pitched like one in the playoffs so we need him! Hamels just doesn't have "ace" stuff because I said so. Etc., etc.
The fact is that there are lots of ways to win. Good starting pitching takes on increased importance in the playoffs, but the best, reliable starting pitching is incredibly expensive if it ever gets to free agency.
3. Hoping the Sox don't sign a good player just because you haven't liked him in the past is asinine. Maybe if we have reason to think they are actually a bad person, or they may be more likely to get suspended or something, sure, but come on.
4. Shields may not be a top ten pitcher by ERA or FIP, but he's thrown a hell of a lot of innings over a lot of years and has for the most part been very good. He's old-ish but I think his next two-three years are as predictable as anyone's, which is all you're really hoping to get when you sign a free agent pitcher.
I would make a very solid offer for Shields and hope you can sign him. I realize this may be in the 5/100 realm but I think it's a solid way to spend the money. He makes the team very good by knocking everyone else down one slot, and giving you insurance if Masterson doesn't return to form, Buchholz is bad or none of the prospects are ready.
Shields - Porcello - Buchholz - Miley - Kelly is a very good rotation, and Kelly seems like a great bullpen candidate if everyone is healthy and Masterson looks good. You also have Owens, Johnson, Barnes, Ranaudo in AAA in case of injuries.
Edit: Oh, and we've already lost two picks, so we'd just be losing a 4th rounder. Better to do that than to sign someone next year and maybe lose a 1st rounder.