Yeah, that’s fair. I guess the question is how the approach evolves in the next year as the current core is eligible for free agency and needs to be extended, traded, or replaced. Eventually you have to sign some deals that probably entail a lot of risk to keep or acquire top shelf talent. Should be interesting, lot of different directions to go in.
I think Bloom is going to keep going the "surplus value" route. I just saw this Athletic article (subscription required) from late October that details how Bloom (and TB) really looks for deals that have the potential to generate "surplus value": https://theathletic.com/2898387/2021/10/21/chaim-bloom-the-red-sox-return-to-contention-and-the-hunt-for-surplus-value/
. Here's one small bit:
In the time since [Bloom was hired by the Sox], the Sox have been geared toward something Bloom’s old club, Tampa Bay, excelled at: casting a wide net to find value.
“Weighing all types of upgrades, whether it’s marginal upgrades, big upgrades, deepening the roster any way we can,” said O’Halloran, the Sox’ general manager, of the team’s strategy. “Whether that’s the Rule 5 draft, the minor-league free-agent market, major league free-agent market, trades, released players. In every market, we have to look.”
But the strategy isn’t built specifically around options, or versatility, not alone. All of those elements contribute to a bottom line. A former colleague of Bloom’s described the m.o. in more pragmatic, if not blunt terms.
“The reason the Rays had success is they’re primarily focused on future value, and if you’re focused on future value, you’ll usually, quote-unquote, win the deals,” the former colleague said. “So when you’re talking about a guy that has an extra year of control, or an extra option — or, if you’re doing trades, you’re trading (Andrew) Benintendi for four or five young players — you’re most likely going to win that deal long term in terms of surplus value. Everything’s done as a calculation of expected surplus value.”
Expected surplus value, the colleague said, could be defined as “almost purely a statistical comparison of all skills. Surplus value is when the expected player value over total control years is greater than their expected cost over that time.”