Reviewing the last 5 drafts.

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
2021:
1. Mayer: Projects to be above average offensively and defensively. He's struggled in the early going in Greenville but it's normal after a promotion.
2. DNS
3. McDonough: He's already 23 and is failing to hit in A+. He's not hitting for average or power and hasn't shown much in the way of plate discipline. I'm leaning towards organizational guy.
4. Rodriguez-Cruz: Sits around 92 and tops out at 95. Could add some velocity with age. Needs experience and possibly some worth with his delivery. It's medium effort. Very wide range of outcomes.
5. Hickey: Average hit tool, average power, good eye. Has to prove himself at AA, as that's the first real challenge for college players. If he can stick at C, potential regular. Doesn't hit enough for 1b/3b.
6: McElveny: The 19 year old started the year in the FCL but was quickly promoted to Salem. Wide range of outcomes and is currently getting reps at C.
7. Olds: Getting rocked in Greenville, very wild. Filler.
8. Dobbins: Stuff has recovered, sitting mid 90s and topping out around 97-98. A lot of his projection will depend on how he continues to recover from TJS. Early signs are promising.
9. Miller: Struggling as a 22 year old in Salem. Filler.
10. Litwicki: Hasn't played.
11. Kavadas: While old for A/A+, he absolutely destroyed the league. He has some legit power but a lot of swing and miss in his game. How he handles AA will be very telling. Hard to give him a projection until he reaches AA.
12. Troye: 23 year old getting lit up in Salem. Filler.
14. Webb is an intriguing arm who came into the year sitting at 92-94. In the past, he at in the mid 90s and could reach 100. His outcome will largely depend on if he can recover the lost velocity. He's striking out a lot of batters this year.
15. DNS
16. BJ Vela: Repeating the FCL for a 2nd year despite being 22. Filler.
17. Guerrero: Just turned 22. Started in the FCL but was quickly moved up to Salem with good success. Sits around 92-93 and tops out at 95-96. Needs to work on command and control issues.
18. Sikes: College player with decent results in A/A+. He'll have to hold his own in AA next year but could possibly develop into a 4th/5th OF type.
19. Uberstine: Having a meh year in A/A+ and his stuff is not very intriguing at all.
20: DNS

Summary:
Potential All Stars: Mayer.
Potential Regulars: Nathan Hickey
Other Players of Note: McElveny, Kavadas,
Arms of Note: Dobbins, Rodriguez-Cruz, Webb. Guerrero
Probably Filler: McDonough, Olds, Miller, Litwicki, Troye, BJ Vela, Uberstine. College players not performing at the A level.


If Mayer works out, this class is a smashing success. It's still too early to really summarize this draft until we know more about Hickey, Kavadas and the pitchers but it's looking pretty good so far.


2020:
1. Nick Yorke: Had a great year last year but has been just as bad this year. Some of that is due to injury and bad BAbip luck. Still has a ceiling of an every day regular and potential all star, though his star has diminished some.
3. Blaze Jordan: Had a decent year in Salem and earned a promotion to A+. Hasn't hit for as much power this year and there's some concerns if he can hit advanced pitching. Potential every day 1b.
4. Jeremy Wu-Yeilland: TJS. Was throwing 93-95 and topping out at 97. MR profile unless he adds a 3rd pitch.
5. Shane Drohan: Lefty who sits around 90-92, tops out at 94. Or was. He had some room for improvement, not sure if he has. not much of a ceiling.

2020 draft will largely depend on Yorke and Jordan but given it was 4 picks, it's hard to compare to other drafts.

2019. In 2022, Brandon Walter would have never been picked since the draft stops at 20 rounds.
2. Matthew Lugo: Just turned 21 and has hit for a lot more power this year. Probably a utility player type.
4. Noah Song: He looked promising but he's 25 and hasn't pitched since 2019.
6. Chris Murphy: On some Sox top 10 list. Back end starter/MR type. Could be in Boston next year. Will make it to MLB.
7. Brock Bell: Hasn't pitched since 2019. Probably filler.
10. Stephen Scott: Probably filler. Having a weird year where he's been better in AA than A.
26. Brandon Walter: Fringe Top 100 guy. He has some Jekyll and Hyde in him though. I think he has a chance of being an impact relief pitcher. It's possible he sticks in the rotation too. Will make it to MLB.
32. Bradley Blalock, probably filler but he's 21. He had TJS earlier this year.

This draft will depend on Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Matthew Lugo most likely. If one of Walter or Murphy can stick in the rotation and the other in the bullpen, while Lugo becomes a UI, that's a good draft. There aren't any real sure things with the 2019 draft though. Brandon Walter is probably the closest.

2018 Draft.
1. Casas: Close to the majors. Potential impact bat. Will have to improve against LHP but his bat is all but ready vs RHP. Will make it MLB.
5. Thad Ward: Missed some time due to TJS but has returned and is doing well. Back end/MR type. Should at least make it to MLB.
7. Jarren Duran: Already in the majors. Has shown some improvement year to year but has also had some, uh, moments.
11. Nick Northcut: Probably filler but he's 23 and in AA. Offers powers and little else. Probably won't make the majors but is too young to put into the list below.
15. Andrew Politi: Potential MR. Having a pretty good year in the minors now. Should at least make the majors.

2018 has a few players who could get a cup of coffee later on in life: Feltman, Cottam, Granberg.

This draft is looking very good but will depend on Casas (or Duran) becoming starters. If they both do, awesome. There's also a chance Ward and Politi can provide value out of the pen.

2017 Draft
1. Tanner Houck: Already in the Majors. Has had success as a starter and a bullpen arm.
16. Kutter Crawford: Already in the Majors; Has had success as a starter.

Houck and Crawford both look like they are on the path to successful MLB careers.

2016 produced Jay Groome, Bobby Dalbec and Santiago Espinal.
2015: Ben10, Ben Taylor,
2014: Chavis, Kopech, Beeks
2013: Dubon? Eww
2012: Nothing beyond a cup of coffee as far as I can tell
2011: Barnes, Swihart, Owens, Bradley, Noe Ramirez, Mookie, Travis Shaw. WOW.
2010: Brandon Workman, Hunter Renfroe (didn't sign)

All in all, getting around 2 useful players in a draft and drafts will weed themselves down pretty quickly. 2011 was under different rules and the Sox had 4 1st round picks.
I have 8 players of note in 2021
7 in 2019, but 2 haven't even pitched since 2019 and the other got TJS in 2021.
5 in 2018
2 in 2017
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,865
Rogers Park
This is a great review. Thank you for putting it together, and maybe we can build on it in this thread over time.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,957
It’s interesting how lousy the drafts were during the Cherington era; guess that aligns with when changes were made regarding rules around how much you could spend, right?
 

GB5

New Member
Aug 26, 2013
707
I am a Blaze guy, and it seems like everything I read on him starts with “he can’t”. He can’t hit a good fastball, he can’t turn on the ball, he can’t hit for power as he moves up a level. There seems to be a pretty big gap between this years numbers and what everyone else is seeing in person.
 

pantsparty

Member
SoSH Member
May 2, 2011
568
It’s interesting how lousy the drafts were during the Cherington era; guess that aligns with when changes were made regarding rules around how much you could spend, right?
Yeah, 2011 was the last year without actual penalties for spending over slot - that year and before slot bonuses were just a suggestion. That's part of why the 2011 draft was so productive - both players (well, their agents mostly) and teams knew this was the last year before draft bonuses would get reduced so anyone capable of being drafted was strongly incentivized to do so. The Sox signed all but one of their rounds 1-10 draftees that year because the Sox basically said "screw it, pay these guys whatever they want just get them signed, we won't have this opportunity to use our money like this again."

edit - https://soxprospects.com/dh2011.htm has the slot values for the 2011 draft along with the actual bonuses paid.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,957
Yeah, that draft is covered extensively, and is kind of the basis for, Alex Speier’s book, Homegrown. It’s an excellent read. I guess it’s just interesting in that Dombrowski seems to get hammered for abandoning the farm system, whereas his predecessor wasn’t great at acquiring talent via the draft (of course there are other ways to acquire players, a la Moncada).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,957
I am a Blaze guy, and it seems like everything I read on him starts with “he can’t”. He can’t hit a good fastball, he can’t turn on the ball, he can’t hit for power as he moves up a level. There seems to be a pretty big gap between this years numbers and what everyone else is seeing in person.
Blaze seems polarizing; a top ten guy in the system or barely top twenty depending on who you ask. I feel like what you think about him is a litmus test for what you think of the system in general. Hard to argue with his performance so far.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Yeah, 2011 was the last year without actual penalties for spending over slot - that year and before slot bonuses were just a suggestion. That's part of why the 2011 draft was so productive - both players (well, their agents mostly) and teams knew this was the last year before draft bonuses would get reduced so anyone capable of being drafted was strongly incentivized to do so. The Sox signed all but one of their rounds 1-10 draftees that year because the Sox basically said "screw it, pay these guys whatever they want just get them signed, we won't have this opportunity to use our money like this again."

edit - https://soxprospects.com/dh2011.htm has the slot values for the 2011 draft along with the actual bonuses paid.
The one guy who didn't sign would be drafted in the 2nd round by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Never actually made it to the NFL though.
https://steelersdepot.com/2020/05/biggest-busts-in-steelers-history-cb-senquez-golson/
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Which reminds me of Shaq Thompson, who has done very well in the NFL but had probably one of the worst minor league careers ever. He went in the 1st round to the 2015 draft. The Sox had signed him for only $45k as the 18th round pick in 2012 but it was all but a given he was going to pursue football. Still, wonder how many teams draft future 1st and 2nd round NFL picks in the same draft in back to back MLB drafts.

0/39 with 37bb/8k in in 47 PA. 000/.170/.000, 78.7% K%. Put the ball in play twice.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=green-002sha
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ThomSh01.htm

Story about his baseball career: https://www.si.com/nfl/2015/02/11/nfl-draft-shaq-thompson-red-sox
 

billy ashley

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,242
Washington DC
Blaze seems polarizing; a top ten guy in the system or barely top twenty depending on who you ask. I feel like what you think about him is a litmus test for what you think of the system in general. Hard to argue with his performance so far.
I actually don't think that there is much of a difference in talent between 8 and 20 in this system. Right now Boston probably has a top 10 system, with 5 stand out prospects (Mayer, Casas, Yorke, Bleis, Bello), a crop of interesting close to the majors prospects with some upside (Mata, Walter, Rafaela) and then about 20 guys who either have upside you could dream on (The new draftees and guys Paulino, Blaze Jordan, W. Gonzalez, Lugo, Hickey, etc.) and prospects who are closish and could contribute but don't look to be more than role players (Seabold, Murphey, Wincowski, Valdez, etc.).

The system is very deep in interesting talent and depth. It's a little light on high minors guys who project as Starting Pitchers or everyday position players.I think you could reasonably rank Blaze Jordan anywhere from 8 in this system to 20.

Matt Lugo has gotten a lot of attention as of late as a jack of all trades type in terms of tools (though some don't think he's a SS) and he's ranked around 20 by SP, for example. If somebody told me that he should slot in at say, 15 (SP has Thad Ward there) I don't think folks would freak out. I think that's even more true of Jordan given his age and success in pro ball (the reports about him hitting velocity is absolutely a watch item, though).
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
2011: 29 HS picks, 11 JR picks, 8 SR picks, 3 JuCo picks. 1 SO pick
Top 6 signings by $ Amount: Swihart (2.5m), Owens,(1.55m) Barnes (1.5m), Bradley (1.1m) Kukuk (800k), Mookie (750k)
Other significantly above slot signings: Noe Ramirez (625k), Jordan Weems (500k)
Other notable players: Travis Shaw
Players to reach majors: 11. This includes the first 8 picks (all in first 5 rounds). 6 HS, 4 JR, 1 SO.

2012: 16 HS picks, 10 JR picks, 11 SR picks, 6 JuCo picks. 1 SO Pick.
Top 6 signings by $ amount: Deven Marrero (2.05m), Brian Johnson (1.5m), Ty Buttrey (1.3m) Pat Light (1.1m) Jamie Callahan (600k), Austin Maddox (350k)
Other Notable players: Alex Bregman (DNS),
Players to reach majors: 12. 5 HS, 5 JR, 1 SR 1 JuCo. Interesting this draft produced more MLB players than 2011. Quality matters. The only player of real value didn't sign.

2013: 23 HS picks, 7 JR picks, 9 SR picks, 3 JC picks.
Top 6 signings by $ amount: Trey Ball (2.75m), Teddy Skankiewicz (915k), Jon Denny (875k), Nick Longhi (440k), Myles Smith (400k)
Other Notable players: None
Players to reach majors: 6. 4 HS, 1 JR, 1 SR. What a craptastic draft. The first 8 picks failed to reach the majors and Kyle Martin only had 2.1 ip. 11th rounder Carlos Asuaje was the first pick to get any real time. The best player out of this group is currently Mauricio Dubon. I think they were trying to be far too cute here with underslots. Maybe they were really going for Jordan Sheffield but it looks like they left money unspent. Jon Denny being a head case didn't help any.

2014: 16 HS picks, 14 JR picks, 4 SR picks, 5 JC picks, 2 SO picks
Top 6 signings by $ amount: Michael Chavis (1.8m), Michael Kopech (1.5m), Sam Travis (847k), Jake Cosart and Josh Ockimey (450k) Kevin McAvoy and Devon Fisher (300k)
Other Notable players: Jalen Beeks
Players to reach majors: 8. 4 HS, 3 Jr, 1 JC. Michael Kopech will have to have a pretty good career to salvage the 2014 draft. I guess Chavis still has some hope too.

2015: 13 HS picks, 15 JR picks, 8 SR picks, 1 JC pick, 3 SO picks
Top 6 signings by $ amount: Andrew Benintendi (3.6m), Austin Rei (740k), Logan Allen (725k), Tate Matheny (512k), Jagger Rusconi (384k) Travis Lakins (320k)
Other Notable players: Ben Taylor
Players to reach majors: 8, 2 HS, 3 SR, 1 JC, 2 SO. It's basically Andrew Benintendi.

2016: 17 HS picks, 13 JR picks, 7 SR picks, 9 JC picks
Top 6 signings by $ amount: Jay Groome (3.65m), CJ Chatham (1.1m), Shaun Anderson (700k), Bobby Dalbec (650k), Mike Shawaryn (638k), Stephen Nogosek (250k)
Other Notable players: Santiago Espinal, Trevor Stephan
Players to reach majors: 7 (Groome will be 8), 4 JR, 1 SR, 2 JuCo. Espinal and Stephan are JuCo players. Espinal made the all star game this ear and Stephan has a FIP of 1.94 this year, 30.5% K%, 5.8% BB%. Solid last year too.

I'll do 2017-2021 later but to recap 2011-2016:
Regular HS players: Betts, Bregman, Kopech, Chavis, N.Ramirez
Regular JR players: Bradley, Barnes, Shaw, Beeks
Regular SR players: Taylor
Notable JC players: Espinal, Stephan
Notable SO players: Benintendi
Total Players to make majors: 52. 21 HS, 17 JR, 5 SR, 6JuCo, 3 SO
Total picks: 114 HS, 70 JR, 47 SR, 27 JuCO, 7 SO.
5 pitchers, 1 SP, 3 pretty good relievers and Noe Ramirez. 8 hitters. The hitters have been far better, obviously.

Pretty decent spread of talent with most of the special talent coming from HS.
 

Mr. Wednesday

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 27, 2007
1,626
Eastern MA
2014: 16 HS picks, 14 JR picks, 4 SR picks, 5 JC picks, 2 SO picks
Top 6 signings by $ amount: Michael Chavis (1.8m), Michael Kopech (1.5m), Sam Travis (847k), Jake Cosart and Josh Ockimey (450k) Kevin McAvoy and Devon Fisher (300k)
Other Notable players: Jalen Beeks
Players to reach majors: 8. 4 HS, 3 Jr, 1 JC. Michael Kopech will have to have a pretty good career to salvage the 2014 draft. I guess Chavis still has some hope too.
As far as the Sox are concerned, given that Kopech (along with Moncada) turned into Chris Sale, I would tend to consider him a success regardless of what he does the rest of his career.
 

BorisMan

New Member
Oct 12, 2005
5
I follow the draft and I think the Sox made a huge mistake taking Cutter Coffey this past draft when there were other, better prospects (IMO) available who signed for same slot value or less. This pick is going to hurt if players such as Prielipp (my most preferred pick), Max Wagner, Ivan Melendez, Cayden Wallace, Peyton Graham, Brock Jones and a couple of others (Cade Doughty who can rake) will outperform and become major leaguers.
I hated that pick and nothing will change my mind. I say he busts by the time he reaches AA.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I follow the draft and I think the Sox made a huge mistake taking Cutter Coffey this past draft when there were other, better prospects (IMO) available who signed for same slot value or less. This pick is going to hurt if players such as Prielipp (my most preferred pick), Max Wagner, Ivan Melendez, Cayden Wallace, Peyton Graham, Brock Jones and a couple of others (Cade Doughty who can rake) will outperform and become major leaguers.
I hated that pick and nothing will change my mind. I say he busts by the time he reaches AA.
There are going to be players drafted after Coffey that are better than Cutter Coffey. That's going to be the case regardless how good or bad Cutter Coffey ends up being. Unless he's the next ARod. HIs early results aren't the best but it was 40 PA. He may wash out in AA but that happens all the time. No one is talking about Nick Decker, Cameron Cannon, Cole Brannen or CJ Chatham. The last 2nd rounder to make the Majors was Sam Travis in 2014. The last 2nd rounder to provide real value was either Workman in 2010 or Justin Masterson in 2006. Pedroia was 2004. Lugo and Jordan are still 2nd round picks that could contribute. Jud Fabian has cooled off in A+ but was an absolute beast in the FCL and A ball. That will sting a little if he's a star.

I'd judge the draft by its entirety rather than one player. Romero and Anthony are off to promising starts and Meidroth is mashing. Maybe Coffey ends up sucking, but most of these guys will.

Looking into it, only 17.6% of draftees make the majors. Only 9.8% of them managed to produce 0.1 WAR. 51% of 2nd rounders made it.

This was done in 2010, so maybe teams got slightly better at drafting but I doubt it.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-many-mlb-draftees-make-it-to-the-majors/
 

BorisMan

New Member
Oct 12, 2005
5
There are going to be players drafted after Coffey that are better than Cutter Coffey. That's going to be the case regardless how good or bad Cutter Coffey ends up being. Unless he's the next ARod. HIs early results aren't the best but it was 40 PA. He may wash out in AA but that happens all the time. No one is talking about Nick Decker, Cameron Cannon, Cole Brannen or CJ Chatham. The last 2nd rounder to make the Majors was Sam Travis in 2014. The last 2nd rounder to provide real value was either Workman in 2010 or Justin Masterson in 2006. Pedroia was 2004. Lugo and Jordan are still 2nd round picks that could contribute. Jud Fabian has cooled off in A+ but was an absolute beast in the FCL and A ball. That will sting a little if he's a star.

I'd judge the draft by its entirety rather than one player. Romero and Anthony are off to promising starts and Meidroth is mashing. Maybe Coffey ends up sucking, but most of these guys will.

Looking into it, only 17.6% of draftees make the majors. Only 9.8% of them managed to produce 0.1 WAR. 51% of 2nd rounders made it.

This was done in 2010, so maybe teams got slightly better at drafting but I doubt it.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-many-mlb-draftees-make-it-to-the-majors/
Too many red flags for Coffey (lack of competition and when he did face tougher competition he was overmatched) for me to consider him that high in the draft. Too many better prospects were available that fell that could have gone in the first but the Sox passed. I could see if there were draft pool savings, like in 2020 with Yorke and Blaze (I wanted PCA in 2020 so there would not be Jordan if they took PCA), but Coffey basically signed for slot. I am on record hating the pick so I am going to stick with my opinion. I've followed the drafts since 2012 and this one falls in the Vitek/Ball and Chatham category that made me hit the roof.
Jordan went in the 3rd, btw. They lost their 2nd to cheating scandal. Just sayin'.