Revised contract predictions for Snell and Montgomery

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moondog80

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My guess, and it's a complete guess, is that not one team has offered Montgomery a guaranteed 5th year. It's laughable to think, if it's true, that Boras was seeking 7 years at the start of free agency. As for Snell, the QO must be scaring teams off if they are looking for an early opt out. That and he tends to be fragile and did issue 100 walks last year.
It's plausible that someone offered 5 years back in November, Boras said no, that team moved on and spend their $$ elsewhere, and that deal is no longer on the table. But I'd be shocked if he was sitting on a 4 year offer now, much less 5.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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These guys must be going out of their minds. I know -- cry me a river when you're about to make 8 figures playing a game but it still must be kind of hard. Cry me a river for Boras too, but the amount of handholding and baby sitting he probably is having to do with these guys and their families to get through this is likely nuts.
 

sezwho

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These guys must be going out of their minds. I know -- cry me a river when you're about to make 8 figures playing a game but it still must be kind of hard. Cry me a river for Boras too, but the amount of handholding and baby sitting he probably is having to do with these guys and their families to get through this is likely nuts.
I hear you, but I wonder if there is maybe some selection bias here? Like, they pick Boras for the same reason Will picked the wrench…because fuck the owners.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Well sure, if the demands drop far enough, it makes sense that other teams will get (back?) in the game. Of course, it's also Boras-spin 101 to invoke mystery teams. It will be interesting to find out if the contract they each ultimately sign is one that's already out there (and they aren't ready to accept it's the best they can get) or if these mystery teams actually help them squeeze out an extra year or a few extra million dollars.
 

pdub

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If Montgomery's market is dipping like some suspect, then the involvement of four new mystery teams makes sense. Given what Chapman recently signed for, and what Imanaga got before him, I'm ready for more unexpected contractual surprises.
 

picniclightning

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Prediction: Montgomery gets a pillow contract (w/ early opt outs) with another team (not Red Sox) and signs after opening day to avoid the QO next year.

My gut is that the Red Sox' current offer to Montgomery is in the ballpark of 4 years, ~$25M AAV w/ no opt outs.

Boras is holding out for either more years, higher AAV, or first year opt out, none of which the Red Sox will agree to.

If Montgomery signs a contract w/ the Red Sox that includes a year 1 opt out (or year 2), I'll be surprised and disappointed.

If Montgomery signs for 4/100 and it's not w/ the Red Sox I''ll be surprised and disappointed.
 

simplicio

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Getting any team to agree to a 1 year opt out without possibility of a QO for Montgomery seems unlikely to me. Then again, I don't understand why the Giants gave Chapman the deal they did either, so what do I know?
 

Jace II

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Red(s)HawksFan

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It feels like he's being up front about his core strategy of waiting until other starters get hurt in Spring Training to boost the market.
This strategy might work for a fringy guy willing to take really low dollars. I can't see that being productive for a guy looking for a top tier salary ($20M+ per year) like Montgomery and Snell are. How many teams are going to have a guy go down with a season-threatening/ending injury in camp and have their first instinct be replacing him with a $20M+ player? Relying on pure serendipity doesn't strike me as a sound strategy.
 

moondog80

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This strategy might work for a fringy guy willing to take really low dollars. I can't see that being productive for a guy looking for a top tier salary ($20M+ per year) like Montgomery and Snell are. How many teams are going to have a guy go down with a season-threatening/ending injury in camp and have their first instinct be replacing him with a $20M+ player? Relying on pure serendipity doesn't strike me as a sound strategy.
Agree. He's grasping at straws.
 

Jace II

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This strategy might work for a fringy guy willing to take really low dollars. I can't see that being productive for a guy looking for a top tier salary ($20M+ per year) like Montgomery and Snell are. How many teams are going to have a guy go down with a season-threatening/ending injury in camp and have their first instinct be replacing him with a $20M+ player? Relying on pure serendipity doesn't strike me as a sound strategy.
I don't know that it's serendipity, as it happens in some form pretty much every year. Its certainly cynical.

I doubt it's the strategy back in December when he's negotiating for massive offers with no time pressure, but there's no way he's not thinking of it as another possible out / leverage point late in the game, like an inside straight draw. It's not enough on its own, but its a factor that could at least shift the balance, and he plays every angle he can. He's saying it out loud to reporters.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Sonny Gray was pulled with a hammy today. But doubt the Cards would pay Montgomery.
Yeah… when your $25M per year starter goes down in early ST, most teams try to find their own Fitts or Winckowskis to hopefully hold down the fort for a month or so.
I’m sure Boras will try to exploit these types of things but it shouldn’t be a concern
 

Cassvt2023

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I can't believe these two are still unsigned on March 8th, with the season starting for most teams in 20 days. They can't be too happy about this uncertainty at this late stage. I wonder if they are displeased with Boras, who seems to have badly misjudged the market this year with most of his players.
 

EvilEmpire

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I can't believe these two are still unsigned on March 8th, with the season starting for most teams in 20 days. They can't be too happy about this uncertainty at this late stage. I wonder if they are displeased with Boras, who seems to have badly misjudged the market this year with most of his players.
They may be displeased with Boras, but if the reports are true that both Snell and Monty are really trying to get or stay within certain geographic regions, I think they understand the additional constraints they are placing on their agent.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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They may be displeased with Boras, but if the reports are true that both Snell and Monty are really trying to get or stay within certain geographic regions, I think they understand the additional constraints they are placing on their agent.
They're still going to be stupid rich even if they end up signing a one year deal and both injure themselves and can't finish the season. Nobody will ever feel bad for these guys. They missed out on timing to be stupid Carlos Rodon wealth
 

Cassvt2023

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Oh i don't feel one bit sorry for either of them. When you hire Scott Boras as your agent, you're kind of making a deal with the devil, IMO. I actually enjoy seeing him be wrong about the market this year.
 

EvilEmpire

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They're still going to be stupid rich even if they end up signing a one year deal and both injure themselves and can't finish the season. Nobody will ever feel bad for these guys. They missed out on timing to be stupid Carlos Rodon wealth
I don't feel bad for them at all. It looks like they might be prioritizing geography and comfort over money, which I think is great for them if that is what they want. They can afford it. I'm certain Boras knows their priorities and is updating them with current offers/options every step of the way and keeping them fully involved in the process.

Guys don't usually get too many chances at free agency. I don't blame them at all for taking as long as they need to try and get what they want. For Monty in particular, if geography is that important and it doesn't work out this time, I think he'll get an opt out after one season included in his deal and have the option of trying again next year. Unless the money is at the upper range of early expectations, I don't think he'll lock in at multiple years in a city he doesn't want to be in.
 

LogansDad

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I don't feel bad for them at all. It looks like they might be prioritizing geography and comfort over money, which I think is great for them if that is what they want. They can afford it. I'm certain Boras knows their priorities and is updating them with current offers/options every step of the way and keeping them fully involved in the process.

Guys don't usually get too many chances at free agency. I don't blame them at all for taking as long as they need to try and get what they want. For Monty in particular, if geography is that important and it doesn't work out this time, I think he'll get an opt out after one season included in his deal and have the option of trying again next year. Unless the money is at the upper range of early expectations, I don't think he'll lock in at multiple years in a city he doesn't want to be in.
I have a suspicion that is why he hasn't signed. He's looking for an opt out after one year, and wants to avoid the QO tag. It would not surprise me if he didn't sign until after opening day.
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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I don't feel bad for them at all. It looks like they might be prioritizing geography and comfort over money, which I think is great for them if that is what they want. They can afford it. I'm certain Boras knows their priorities and is updating them with current offers/options every step of the way and keeping them fully involved in the process.

Guys don't usually get too many chances at free agency. I don't blame them at all for taking as long as they need to try and get what they want. For Monty in particular, if geography is that important and it doesn't work out this time, I think he'll get an opt out after one season included in his deal and have the option of trying again next year. Unless the money is at the upper range of early expectations, I don't think he'll lock in at multiple years in a city he doesn't want to be in.
This just doesn’t compute to me. If I “prioritize geography and comfort over money”, why would I take on Scott Boras as an agent? Everybody knows Boras goes for maximizing the biggest contract (I’m not passing judgement on that, just outlining his MO). The only way that doesn’t happen is when the player steps in and orders him to take the deal with their preferred spot.

Boras’s MO is fairly well-known by now – and it has served him well. Wait for the market to come to him (unless he gets a silly deal early on), and/or circumvent the GM to go to the owner, so the team bids against itself. The problem is most teams have budgets; the longer you wait, the more probable it becomes that your preferred geography/comfort team (if you do have one) will be all set by the time you get to Spring Training. If I prioritize geography and comfort, I’m not sure my priorities are quite aligned with Boras's approach.

It seems to me the explanation is relatively straightforward. Boras and Montgomery/Snell are going for max money. They are looking for a number, and nobody is giving them that number, including their preferred landing spots. Their options now are (1)Take the next best max money deal, regardless of where it is or (2)Take even less money to go their preferred spot.

I can understand where none of those options may be appealing – and I doubt that is the outcome they had in mind going into free agency.
 

Cassvt2023

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This just doesn’t compute to me. If I “prioritize geography and comfort over money”, why would I take on Scott Boras as an agent? Everybody knows Boras goes for maximizing the biggest contract (I’m not passing judgement on that, just outlining his MO). The only way that doesn’t happen is when the player steps in and orders him to take the deal with their preferred spot.

Boras’s MO is fairly well-known by now – and it has served him well. Wait for the market to come to him (unless he gets a silly deal early on), and/or circumvent the GM to go to the owner, so the team bids against itself. The problem is most teams have budgets; the longer you wait, the more probable it becomes that your preferred geography/comfort team (if you do have one) will be all set by the time you get to Spring Training. If I prioritize geography and comfort, I’m not sure my priorities are quite aligned with Boras's approach.

It seems to me the explanation is relatively straightforward. Boras and Montgomery/Snell are going for max money. They are looking for a number, and nobody is giving them that number, including their preferred landing spots. Their options now are (1)Take the next best max money deal, regardless of where it is or (2)Take even less money to go their preferred spot.

I can understand where none of those options may be appealing – and I doubt that is the outcome they had in mind going into free agency.
This is very well said. The only thing I would add is that Boras totally misread the market this year.
 

HfxBob

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Montgomery still seems like the perfect match for the Red Sox. Are they in on him at all? It's impossible to say. If they sign a cheaper starting pitcher we'll know it's over.

There hasn't been a single report of an offer to Montgomery yet, has there?
 
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EvilEmpire

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This just doesn’t compute to me. If I “prioritize geography and comfort over money”, why would I take on Scott Boras as an agent? Everybody knows Boras goes for maximizing the biggest contract (I’m not passing judgement on that, just outlining his MO). The only way that doesn’t happen is when the player steps in and orders him to take the deal with their preferred spot.
I think Boras' MO is to get his clients what they want. In Montgomery's case I think the first priority is to get a massive contract and play wherever. I don't think an offer like that came in or he would have signed already. Monty knows he can't be picky on location when so few teams can actually make such a big offer. After that, I think his second priority is based on location, preferably Texas, but not just there. When I say "prioritizing geography and comfort over money", I think that absent a huge deal, he'll leave some money on the table to go where he wants. Probably a few million here or there, which is still significant.

Since the big offer didn't come in, I think that is the priority currently in play.

If getting to a location where he wants to play isn't possible, I think priority three will be to get an early opt out so he has a chance to move on if he isn't comfortable or can do better.
 
How much impact would the QO have on depressing total contract value? If Montgomery signs after opening day he likely won't be ready for a while after that and will take even longer to get into peak form. I can't help but wonder if the value he'd lose in having his pillow contract be less valuable to the signing team plus added risk of reduced performance due to missing Spring Training is worth more than whatever he'd gain from not having a QO tacked on. I don't have a strong take on this, just a question that is sticking in my mind.
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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I think Boras' MO is to get his clients what they want. In Montgomery's case I think the first priority is to get a massive contract and play wherever. I don't think an offer like that came in or he would have signed already. Monty knows he can't be picky on location when so few teams can actually make such a big offer. After that, I think his second priority is based on location, preferably Texas, but not just there. When I say "prioritizing geography and comfort over money", I think that absent a huge deal, he'll leave some money on the table to go where he wants. Probably a few million here or there, which is still significant.

Since the big offer didn't come in, I think that is the priority currently in play.

If getting to a location where he wants to play isn't possible, I think priority three will be to get an early opt out so he has a chance to move on if he isn't comfortable or can do better.
OK, that's a fair assessment, thanks.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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How much impact would the QO have on depressing total contract value? If Montgomery signs after opening day he likely won't be ready for a while after that and will take even longer to get into peak form. I can't help but wonder if the value he'd lose in having his pillow contract be less valuable to the signing team plus added risk of reduced performance due to missing Spring Training is worth more than whatever he'd gain from not having a QO tacked on. I don't have a strong take on this, just a question that is sticking in my mind.
That's a fair question. Even removing the QO from the equation, I wonder what Montgomery's market next winter is going to be should he get a pillow deal or an opt-out. Considering the big deal he was after this winter hasn't materialized, he'll be a year older, and the marketplace, at least for now, appears to be a bit deeper with top-of-the-rotation options (Burnes, Fried, Bieber, possible Cole), what kind of performance is he going to have to put up to get his price close to what he was hoping to get this winter? Might he be looking at something more in line with what Gray got (3/75)? Does a QO put him more in ERod (4/80) or Seth Lugo territory (3/45)? All of that is a far cry from the Nola-type deal he was reportedly seeking.
 

Sin Duda

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Oh i don't feel one bit sorry for either of them. When you hire Scott Boras as your agent, you're kind of making a deal with the devil, IMO. I actually enjoy seeing him be wrong about the market this year.
Can we please stop alluding to Boras as some sort of evil incarnation? If your son had an arm bestowed by God Almighty, and you had invested lots of time and money on him, and you knew that he was only an injury away fron losing it all, and knew that team owners are billionaires, wouldn't you want Boras representing your kid? I would.
 

OCD SS

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It’s beyond late: at this point even if they sign they’re likely not going to be ready for the start of the season, Boras’s idea that he can run a spring training notwithstanding. I don’t think anything he can do is going to accurately simulate facing live hitters and line ups.
 

YTF

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It’s beyond late: at this point even if they sign they’re likely not going to be ready for the start of the season, Boras’s idea that he can run a spring training notwithstanding. I don’t think anything he can do is going to accurately simulate facing live hitters and line ups.
Not that big of a deal at this point
I'm willing to bet that lots of teams have pitchers under contract that might miss their first couple of starts.
 

moondog80

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My gut tells me that this is an attempt to bump the max 3-4 year deals that some teams might be entertaining to at least 5 years.
You’re probably right. Boras doesn’t care if he looks stupid asking for 7 if it means he gets 5.
I don’t think he even gets 5, but that’s another story.
 

gammoseditor

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You’re probably right. Boras doesn’t care if he looks stupid asking for 7 if it means he gets 5.
I don’t think he even gets 5, but that’s another story.
I’d take it one step further and say whatever his offers are none of them are going to get better and he just needs to pick one. I don’t know what team wakes up on March 9 and decides it’s time to offer a free agent more money.
 

simplicio

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The actual Heyman quote felt more like recap than new news to me; 7 years is the same "bigger than Nola" ask we've known about for months now. It was a non-bulleted item in a general Sox offseason recap for the NY Post.
Red Sox decisionmakers did hold a Zoom call with Montgomery three weeks ago, and they’re said to still be in contact and having conversations. But they seem disinclined to the seven-year deal Montgomery seeks, and some still believe a short-term innings-eater (Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger?) may be more likely.
 

opes

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If he wants 7 years he thinks he more special than he really is. A 4.00 pitcher for that type of money? GTFO.
It's not like it's going to move the needle this year anyway. Good luck waiting to a contract on opening day.
 

Cassvt2023

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Can we please stop alluding to Boras as some sort of evil incarnation? If your son had an arm bestowed by God Almighty, and you had invested lots of time and money on him, and you knew that he was only an injury away fron losing it all, and knew that team owners are billionaires, wouldn't you want Boras representing your kid? I would.
there are plenty of other agents out there who seem to secure perfectly reasonable, yet life changing contracts for their clients who aren’t named Boras… (see Ohtani and Yamamoto just this year)..they just choose not to showboat, “set the market”, hold out deep into ST, and try to sell guys who have obvious flaws as elite. (See 2 great years, 4 underwhelming/injury plagued Snell, #3 at best SP looking for near ace level $$ Montgomery, on the decline w/ bat Chapman, and one year bounce back after getting designated Bellinger as perfect examples). Next question.
 

Hank Scorpio

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If it turns out Montgomery wants to only play for certain teams (i.e Texas), but would only sign with Boston on a multi year deal that has a season one opt out… to me that really says “I want to leave as soon as possible, but if I get hurt, then please keep giving me money for several more years”

If that’s what he wants, then good luck to him.
 
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