Revised contract predictions for Snell and Montgomery
- Thread starter Cassvt2023
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He’s a Boras client. There are some examples of Boras clients taking less to go / stay somewhere (Varitek) but they are the exception, not the rule
They know the outline of the deal that the Sox would offer or have offered. They are using time and the existence of other teams (some real, not not) to exert leverage. That’s all. It’s a strategy that doesn’t come without risk. Add on that Snell is doing the same damn thing and the burden of proof would likely be on you for making the assertion that this is all because he doesn’t want to play in Boston.
They know the outline of the deal that the Sox would offer or have offered. They are using time and the existence of other teams (some real, not not) to exert leverage. That’s all. It’s a strategy that doesn’t come without risk. Add on that Snell is doing the same damn thing and the burden of proof would likely be on you for making the assertion that this is all because he doesn’t want to play in Boston.
If the offers are fairly comparable of course the WHERE is a major factor
in making a decision. My guess is that sooner rather than later they will
both take the best offer on the table and not be concerned where that might be.
most of the posts suggesting location, playoff odds etc are a major factor are only
relevant if those choices are actually out there
in making a decision. My guess is that sooner rather than later they will
both take the best offer on the table and not be concerned where that might be.
most of the posts suggesting location, playoff odds etc are a major factor are only
relevant if those choices are actually out there
Are you actually describing Montgomery as a "#3 at best SP"?
From the MLBTR piece that was just linked:
He has thrown 524 1/3 innings over the past three seasons with a 3.48 earned run average. He tossed another 31 frames in last year’s postseason with a 2.90 ERA, forming a key part of the Rangers’ World Series championship club.
He may have flaws, he may not be an ace, but he's most certainly not a "#3 at best".
He has never thrown 200 innings in a season. He has never struck out 170 guys in a season. He has double digit wins once. (10-11 last year). He has never received a down ballot Cy Young vote. Of his career 12+ WAR, 4 of it came last season, in his contract year. And he is on the wrong side of 30 yrs old.
So you're sticking with "#3 at best"?
The 200 innings bar is dead and buried. How many starters have thrown more than 524 innings the last 3 seasons?
W-L record is dead and buried too.
Yup. He’s not an “ace” and shouldn’t be paid like one. The issue is that there’s a bunch of chumps that wickedly overpaid who are similar (Rodon!) or worse. That’s the danger of “setting the bar”. Guys like Pivetta could be getting $25M for 4-5 years if he puts in a season like we’re hoping if Montgomery is paid like Boraa wants
I'll revise it to low end #2-high end #3 in today's SP world. I'd have him at something similar to E-Rod"s contract, not Nola's...
Jordan Montgomery MLB ranks from 2021-2023. Keep in mind that there are 30 teams in MLB, so a #1 pitcher should be roughly ranked #1-30, a #2 pitcher should be ranked #31-60, and a #3 pitcher should be ranked #61-90.
IP:
- 2021: #45 (157.1)
- 2022: #31 (178.1)
- 2023: #17 (188.2)
ERA:
- 2021: #26 (3.83)
- 2022: #29 (3.48)
- 2023: #8 (3.20)
WHIP
- 2021: #33 (1.28)
- 2022: #19 (1.09)
- 2023: #23 (1.19)
WAR
- 2021: #37 (3.4)
- 2022: #108 (1.6)
- 2023: #9 (4.1)
Nothing about that - except his 2022 WAR number - screams "number 3 starter". In many of these metrics, he's a low-end #1 starter. His 2023 was definitely a legit #1 starter kind of season. But on the whole, he's a low-end #1 or a high-end #2.
Which is better than anything Boston has right now. By a very long way.
IP:
- 2021: #45 (157.1)
- 2022: #31 (178.1)
- 2023: #17 (188.2)
ERA:
- 2021: #26 (3.83)
- 2022: #29 (3.48)
- 2023: #8 (3.20)
WHIP
- 2021: #33 (1.28)
- 2022: #19 (1.09)
- 2023: #23 (1.19)
WAR
- 2021: #37 (3.4)
- 2022: #108 (1.6)
- 2023: #9 (4.1)
Nothing about that - except his 2022 WAR number - screams "number 3 starter". In many of these metrics, he's a low-end #1 starter. His 2023 was definitely a legit #1 starter kind of season. But on the whole, he's a low-end #1 or a high-end #2.
Which is better than anything Boston has right now. By a very long way.
You dont see "wins" as metric to not sign a pitcher very often anymore. The 2010 AL Cy Young winner is spinning in his grave right now.
Nailed what exactly? It's simply not that linear. Of the 30 teams, some of them have 2 SP's who may have better #'s than JM. The Red Sox presently constructed may only be one of a handful of teams where he would be their best starter. And it wouldn't surprise me if Bello and/or Pivetta have as good of a season as him in 2024. (If he, you know, actually has a team that wants to sign him for what they feel is fair value)
But it tells us something about the nature and value of modern starting pitching. Montgomery is considered an "innings eater" and has started 140 games in his career, but only got a decision in 72 of them. What's it really worth to have a guy who doesn't pitch well or long enough to not require a parade of relievers to decide the game after him? Gerrit Cole is worth what he's getting paid. He pitches deep into games at a very high level. Verlander and Scherzer were those guys, too. But someone who throws 5 or 6 innings at a decent ERA? If you have that little effect on the outcome of the game, you don't deserve a contract like someone who does.
2023 Montgomery's season of 188.2 ip, 3.20 era, 138 era+, 1.19 whip, 4.1 WAR - what teams would that make him the best SP on?
TB - yes, that's a better season than Eflin had
Bos - obviously
Det
Cle - Bibee had good numbers but not nearly the same # of innings
ChW
KC
Hou - yes he was better than Valdez last year
Tex - well, he was on Texas but his whole 2023 was the best season compared to any other Ranger starter
Sea - a little better than Castillo
LAA - Ohtani was great but Monty had 50+ more innings pitched
Oak
Phi - yes he was better than Wheeler last year
Was
Cin
Pit
StL - spent time with them too but again, his overall season was better than any other Cardinal starter
LAD - Kershaw's rate stats were better but Monty pitched 50+ innings more
Col
So by my reckoning, I think Monty would have been the best pitcher on 18 MLB teams last year. If you want to quibble about some of these teams, fine, but we're still talking about him being the best starter on at least half the teams in baseball.
Now moving forward I'd rather have some of the younger studs that weren't as good as Montgomery last year, but who have much brighter futures. But of course, those guys aren't available to Boston, so.... alas.
TB - yes, that's a better season than Eflin had
Bos - obviously
Det
Cle - Bibee had good numbers but not nearly the same # of innings
ChW
KC
Hou - yes he was better than Valdez last year
Tex - well, he was on Texas but his whole 2023 was the best season compared to any other Ranger starter
Sea - a little better than Castillo
LAA - Ohtani was great but Monty had 50+ more innings pitched
Oak
Phi - yes he was better than Wheeler last year
Was
Cin
Pit
StL - spent time with them too but again, his overall season was better than any other Cardinal starter
LAD - Kershaw's rate stats were better but Monty pitched 50+ innings more
Col
So by my reckoning, I think Monty would have been the best pitcher on 18 MLB teams last year. If you want to quibble about some of these teams, fine, but we're still talking about him being the best starter on at least half the teams in baseball.
Now moving forward I'd rather have some of the younger studs that weren't as good as Montgomery last year, but who have much brighter futures. But of course, those guys aren't available to Boston, so.... alas.
Do you really think those three guys are emblematic of the current state of the game? I dont.
No, and that's the point. Why should current 5 inning starters be paid like they have the same effect on the game as older starters who don't tax the pen? It's the same argument about changing Hall of Fame standards to reflect modern starter usage. If the role has changed and you no longer have as big an effect on the game as previous players in that role did, you shouldn't get extra credit.
Yes. They were from 3 of his 7 years in the majors, and he picked ones that were all favorable to his argument. I also read what @Max Power posted 15 min ago. I read almost all of the posts when i choose to comment. And as a Sox fan who watches over 140 games a year, as well as having a dad who is a Yankess fan, I've actually watched JM pitch many, many times. He is a good pitcher. But he doesn't put the staff on his back and he really doesn't overpower anyone, and he doesn't really save the bullpen o the days he starts.
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So you want to lock up a guy for 5-7 yrs @ 25 mil+ because he outperformed the rest of his career in his contract year?
The last three seasons, Jordan Montgomery has been a top 30 pitcher in all of MLB. That's simply a fact. It's not just last year, though last year he was great.
And I said nothing at all about wanting to give him a seven year contract.
He 100% would improve this team if they signed him. I assume you don't dispute that.
I don't dispute that he would improve this team in 2024. Probably in 2025 as well. After that he could easily regress, and by the end of what he's looking for his contract would likely be an albatross.
I picked the last three because they're the most relevant. But we can go by his career numbers if we want.
3.68 era, 116 era+, 1.21 whip
You know which current Red Sox starter has a career era better than 3.68? None.
You know which current Red Sox starter has a career era+ better than 116? None.
You know which current Red Sox starter has a career whip better than 1.21? None.
Jordan Montgomery would instantly be the best starting pitcher on the Red Sox, and it wouldn't even be close. Maybe someone on the team has a better 2024 than him, but right now he'd be the best SP by far.
deGrom won back to back CYA's with a total of 21 wins for the 2 seasons combined.
Gray won 8 games last year and was second in CYA voting.
It is what it is.
Cole is the best right now, no argument. But he's one guy.
Four years from now, if he's making $25m, quality SPs will be making like $35-40m a year.
Four years ago, the average SP salary among the top 10 SPs was $31,275,000.
This year, the average SP salary among the top 10 SPs is $37,106,000.
But that includes Ohtani's $70,000,000 salary, so if we remove it and just go with the top 9 others, it's still $33,451,389. If we count Ohtani's salary at $46m, which is what MLB is counting it at for luxury tax purposes, then the average SP salary among top 10 is $34,706,250.
So in four years it's gone up $3.4 million. Four years from now the average top 10 salary for SPs will likely be something like $38m a year.
Montgomery's $25m salary then won't really be an "albatross".
Then why have none of the 30 teams in MLB, who have a lot more info than us, signed him yet? And which pitchers who have signed 9 figure contracts since Kevin Brown was the first to do so in 1998 have worked out in the team's favor? I'm guessing they were all true aces and future hall of famers, with many, many more regrets littered along the way.
I think nobody wants to sign him for 7 years. And I'm not advocating for that either.
What do think Jordan Montgomery is actually worth right now? What would YOU pay him if you were the Red Sox, who have the money and who have a desperate need at SP?
Cassvt2023, if your argument is that Montgomery is not a clear #1 ala Scherzer, Verlander, or Cole, I think we all agree. If you're against giving him 5x$25M, I think we all agree. But most of us seem to want him at 3x$25M or 4×$22M. Would you agree he'd be worth one of those? That would give many of us hope for 2024 and 2025.
I think youre seriously underselling him as a "5 inning starter". Check his game logs from the last 2 years, it's better than what you are making it out to be. Additionally, I wasnt saying he should get a massive contract like Cole, or even that he deserves that, but I was saying that among his peers who are not 1st ballot HOFer's he's pretty damn good and his number of wins shouldn't even rate.
Fair question @BaseballJones. I'd offer him a 4yr/90m dollar deal, a bit more than E-Rod got from the D-Backs. Give him a player opt out after year two. 25m in years one and two, 20m in years 3 and 4. I'm hoping he opts out and our pitching development program is in a much better place by then. I'm also hoping Breslow has stockpiled draft picks and prospects by trading expiring contracts. And has identified which of Anthony/Mayer/Teel, if any, he'd be willing to part with to headline a trade for a young controllable SP. Give him a 2.5m bonus for any of the years that he is top 3 in Cy Young voting. And give him his own suite on the road. (lol)
See my response below to @BaseballJones when he asked what I'd give him. Thanks in advance @Sin Duda. We are close in our thoughts on the contract.
Well, for a while there (and maybe even still; hard to say) Boras' line was that he wasn't discussing Montgomery with teams until Snell had signed. That certainly slowed things down.
So the actual difference here is quite small. The range that we're talking about is like 3/$60m at the low end to 5/$125m at the end — and then Boras is out here saying 7/$175, which no one appears to take seriously.
Yup, pretty much. E-Rod got 4/$80m and one could argue he has a higher ceiling, albeit probably a bit lower floor.
IF Boras is truly playing the strategy of waiting for a contender to suffer a serious spring training injury and then hit the panic button, the bigger question for me is which contenders have really left say 25 mill per year in their operating budget.
In the AL East, the contenders are
1. NYY: yes they would spend an extra 25 mill
2. Toronto: possibly, but I am not certain
3. Balt: not spending like this yet.
4. TB: no shot
AL Central
1. Minn: no
2. Cleve: no
3. Chicago: appears they are selling
AL West:
1. Hou: not sure what their budget is, but can’t be ruled out
2. Texas: you would think yes, but tv $ is an issue
3. Seattle: seem to be on a budget
4. Angels: really quiet off-season
NL:
1. Atl: I would say yes, but not sure they aren’t already capped
2. Philly: yes
3. Mia: no
4. NYM: burned with big $ pitching last year
Central:
1. Milwaukee: no
2. Cubs: potential yes, but may be at budget
3. Reds: no
4. cards: already spent on pitching
NL West:
1. LAD: can’t rule them out
2. AZ: I don’t think they can go there financially
3. Padres: going the other way financially
4. SF: possibility, but did Chapman put them at budget?
In the AL East, the contenders are
1. NYY: yes they would spend an extra 25 mill
2. Toronto: possibly, but I am not certain
3. Balt: not spending like this yet.
4. TB: no shot
AL Central
1. Minn: no
2. Cleve: no
3. Chicago: appears they are selling
AL West:
1. Hou: not sure what their budget is, but can’t be ruled out
2. Texas: you would think yes, but tv $ is an issue
3. Seattle: seem to be on a budget
4. Angels: really quiet off-season
NL:
1. Atl: I would say yes, but not sure they aren’t already capped
2. Philly: yes
3. Mia: no
4. NYM: burned with big $ pitching last year
Central:
1. Milwaukee: no
2. Cubs: potential yes, but may be at budget
3. Reds: no
4. cards: already spent on pitching
NL West:
1. LAD: can’t rule them out
2. AZ: I don’t think they can go there financially
3. Padres: going the other way financially
4. SF: possibility, but did Chapman put them at budget?
Aren't they a model franchise, though, for how they've gone about building the roster? Olson and Murphy weren't free agents, for instance, but they got big deals after being traded there.
I think so, which I just find interesting from a team building perspective. They also bottomed out for a few years 2015-17(67,68,72 wins) and seem to really have set the organization up after that.
Montgomery is projected (by ZIPS) to be the 25th most valuable pitcher next year. Snell is 19th. That slots them ahead of Giolito (was projected at 40th) and Bello (55th). Not exactly a hard science, but gives you a decent approximation. Anyways 1/2 starter seems about right for both. Was surprised to see Nola projected at 1.
I would give Montgomery 5/125 in a heartbeat. He is inarguably a top 30 pitcher over the last 3 years.
This is what pitching costs unless you can fill a rotation of Bryan Bellos - which is something only the Rays seem to know how to do.
The strategy against signing Montgomery dooms the Red Sox to never competing against the really good teams in the league. And spare me the "Oh there are better FA's next winter" - because the same damn teams are going to be in the bidding for them too.
Unless you believe Breslow has a super power that magically creates a Bryan Bello a year there is no discernable strategy right now for the Red Sox to be competitive.
Which is why I STILL think they are going to sign Montgomery.
One of the most hilarious and maddening things in baseball discussions is the way folks toss around terms like "ace" and "number 3 pitcher" without any sense of mathematical logic about what the terms actually represent. If Montgomery is the 25th best pitcher, he is by definition a "number 1 pitcher". But of course even "number 1 pitcher" has gradations of value.
It's talk radio fodder, which spends endless amounts of time talking about who is "elite".
It'll be a jolt of energy if they sign Montgomery. It'll be a crushing blow if another team signs him on reasonable terms. It's a big deal.
That was also prior to Anthopoulos running the team. None since then.
Since he took over in 2017 they have gone on their run. Of course, what he's been able to do, and the team he inherited, was set up by the previous GM, Coppolella, who had to resign because of the international draft cheating. And the influx of cash that the Braves/Liberty Media have gotten since they got the Cobb County Commission to subsidize their move to The Battery. And they are expanding that revenue source by adding more office space.
If someone else signs him for 7/210, then I'll be glad Boston didn't do that. But if he signs for 3/75 or something and it's not Boston, I'll be quite pissed.
Marcell Ozuna signed with the Braves in 2021 for 4/65 plus an option. I guess not that “big” by the standards of today.
Is it that simple, though? A 3/75 contract from Texas would keep more money in Monty's pocket than the same contract from Boston, and every indicator I see tells me he'd rather be there, even if all things were equal. How much of a premium do you think would be reasonable in that case? What if the hypothetical 3/75 contract has an opt out after year one?
I won't be pissed simply because he chooses to sign elsewhere, to me it would depend on the complete terms of the deal and whether the Sox made a strong/reasonable offer. I still don't think he's the kind of player to break the bank for, especially for a team that's far from a serious WS contender. If Boras shopped a 3/75 deal to the Sox, what would a reasonable counter be, given the totality of the circumstances?
And he's not getting 7/210 from anyone.
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