seantoo said:
The last 4 years, or since he's been in the AL, from age 29 on his ERA+ is 93, 88, 126 and 101. His IP during this period has been 107,111, 219 & 144 and his SO per year are: 93, 95, 194 & 121. Which of these seasons does not belong with the others? It's obviously the year you think is a reasonable expectation going foward even though he's another year older. That is unreasonable wishful thinking. Realistically speaking more of the same from last year is what should be expected for 2014, afterall it is the second best of the last 4 years and he's 33 years old which is an age where a very slight decline can be expected especially from a pitcher. 2012 was more than likely his last hurrah!
I think going with a four year sample with a starting pitcher seems pretty reasonable. However that is discounting a major injury cutting off year 1 of the sample, and year 2 being his recovery.
In 2010 he had a horrific start (April May) then followed that up with a great June before hurting himself the first July start. I don't know that that really feels like a 93 ERA+ year without an asterisk.
In 2011 he missed the first six weeks or so because of the injury, pitched a shutout in his second start back, and then had an up and down season that totaled up to more down than up. However seasons significantly shortened due to recovery from a major mid season surgery the prior year don't really seem to be as logically predecitive, especially when there are two full years after that to base projections on.
So I don't think 2010 and 2011 are a simple and accurate predictive sample. He dominated in 2012 and was average in 2013.
But even 2013 is a deeper story. He was great through his first 9 starts, then pitched twice while hurt (dumb bulldog mentality and not healthy incompetence) and was shut down for six weeks. After coming back he had a good August and a bad September. I'm not sure how much the injury or change of scenery/catchers/coaching might have impacted the latter, but I'm also not convinced it is a large enough sample (nor is the good August) to be predictive.
His 2010 injury seems to be a freak one without any major long term implications. His velocity has certainly trended down since 2007, but stabilized and both of the last two years have been higher than his strong 2011 season. And he has a long resume of knowing how to pitch.
I think health remains his wild card, as he has had a variety of minor muscle injuries and often attempted to pitch through them. At his age you would expect those to increase in probability and frequency and duration, and that is my worry.
But I think his expected effectiveness when healthy would certainly be in line with his 2011 season more than the other three you cited (or even 2009 when he missed time related to an ankle injury running the bases). As a healthy pitcher he still has a long track record of pitching well, something that his weak September seems to have clouded around here.
Maybe I am being too casual about his injury issues, and they are probable enough for 2014 to not consider his expected healthy performance at all. But I think taking an average of his last four years to predict 2014 is not necessarily more accurate than looking at how he has performed in that time frame when he was what we would consider fully healthy.
And as a result, I think if he is healthy in 2014 we would reasonably expect a 2011-like performance, and if not, it will depend on the severity of his injury or injuries, and not his competence as an effective pitcher at age 32.
Edit: Also running the same four year statistical analysis on Lackey's last four years without injury (and pitching with injury and following injury) context would lead you to throw out the one outlier of the last four and decide he is likely to be a similar conclusion. But nobody is really doing that, and most think that 2013 is the real John Lackey when healthy and he will be a useful pitcher this season. I think Peavy deserves a similar expectation if able to stay healthy.