I have no idea how WAR is calculated but I do think comparing the relative value of offensive and defensive production is tricky.
Over the course of a season, it seems to make sense. For instance, I can see how a JBJ would provide a ton of value in the field over the course of 162 games. Even putting aside assists, he probably gets an average of 5-7 balls hit to his defensive zone per game and by my count I would imagine a majority of those are outs. By comparison, JDM gets up 4 times and gets on 1.5-1.75 times with a high slugging. I can see how those would even put.
Where it gets harder for me is when you start extrapolating those metrics for the smaller sample size of the postseason. It seems hard to imagine JBJ could provide as much value over the course of a playoff series as a high OPS hitter like JDM.
Maybe I’m letting my eyes deceive me—and short of an epic collapse, I suspect we will find out—but I wouldn’t expect this lineup to come up empty again the way they largely have the last two postseasons. The lineup has more holes this year—catcher, JBJ and Devers struggles—but their ceiling is greater. And a lot of that does seem to come from JDM anchoring the three-hole.
Then again, defensive value seems less streaky than offensive production so who knows.
Over the course of a season, it seems to make sense. For instance, I can see how a JBJ would provide a ton of value in the field over the course of 162 games. Even putting aside assists, he probably gets an average of 5-7 balls hit to his defensive zone per game and by my count I would imagine a majority of those are outs. By comparison, JDM gets up 4 times and gets on 1.5-1.75 times with a high slugging. I can see how those would even put.
Where it gets harder for me is when you start extrapolating those metrics for the smaller sample size of the postseason. It seems hard to imagine JBJ could provide as much value over the course of a playoff series as a high OPS hitter like JDM.
Maybe I’m letting my eyes deceive me—and short of an epic collapse, I suspect we will find out—but I wouldn’t expect this lineup to come up empty again the way they largely have the last two postseasons. The lineup has more holes this year—catcher, JBJ and Devers struggles—but their ceiling is greater. And a lot of that does seem to come from JDM anchoring the three-hole.
Then again, defensive value seems less streaky than offensive production so who knows.