Rick Porcello: What's Wrong?

[AB in DC]

It could also mean more to Porcello's confidence if he goes out in a "big spot in the standings" and pitches well - I mean, he's had a largely atrocious first half. If he throws a great start tonight and has the ability to reset his head during the break, it would help him, as well as the Sox, in the long term.

 
Yeah, I don't particularly trust Porcello going into a game thinking it's a "big spot". There's been a lot of talk earlier in the thread that he seems to be pitching differently this year than he did with Detroit -- almost like he's trying to justify his new contract by becoming a different kind of pitcher. If anything, he'd be better off going into this game thinking that the pressure is off, and that he can just go out there and throw like he always does.
 
What I'm most interested in tonight is whether he can build some kind of rapport with Hanigan on pitch selection, location, etc. since that seems to have gotten him into trouble the last few months.

 

[Drek717]

Not only is it about building momentum for the team, but the Sox also need Porcello to get off his snide. If they are going anywhere, he's going to have to be a big contributor to that. If he can't toss a decent start against the Marlins, I'll be very pessimistic. 

A large reason for the importance of tonight's start for Porcello is the return of Ryan Hanigan.  When Hanigan was catching him he got off to a solid start, looking like the Sox most reliable starter through April.  Then with no Hanigan he fell to pieces.  Tonight will, assuming Hanigan gets the nod, tell us a lot about what exactly Porcello's problems were.  If having an experienced vet with strong framing and game planning abilities behind the plate suddenly sees him produce a solid outing it will bode well for the rest of the season assuming Hanigan stays healthy.

 

[dcmissle]

Though typically dramatic, Schilling is in my mind more right than wrong in this assessment:
 

Former Red Sox ace and ESPN baseball analyst Curt Schilling says the pressure is on for Porcello in Wednesday’s start.
 
“Anytime you put a professional athlete in a corner – and he knows it and there’s no way to hide it … Some of my biggest moments happened inside of games,” Schilling said during his weekly appearance on WEEI’s Dennis and Callahan show . “Maybe nobody else noticed them, but they were moments I relied on the rest of my career. He’s going out there today, they’ve righted the ship, he’s the one guy that’s still floundering, he’s going out there knowing he has to be good tonight, knowing he needs to protect his turf, protect his spot.”
 
As a former starter himself, Schilling is looking forward to the moment to see if Porcello can step up and master the challenge.
 
“I love it because now you’re going to know how Rick Porcello feels or pitches under pressure,” Schilling said. “This is pressure. This is as much pressure as you can get, I think, besides a playoff game because when you’re going out there every start, I promise you, there’s a lack of confidence. You can’t continue to be confident when you’re getting your head kicked in. If you are continuing to be confident, you’re pitching in Triple-A. He’s going out tonight, to me, with the weight of the world on his shoulders even if you don’t think he is, because he’s putting it on himself.”
 

 
 
If he gets poleaxed tonight, it will be an enormous buzz kill.  Eventually, he has to own it and so does the club.  You cannot have it both ways -- insisting that you're not folding you hand for this season while sending him out there every 5 days to get hammered.  Something has to give and soon.

 

[joe dokes]

He's been there, so maybe Schilling automatically gets 51% of the votes to my 49% but I think the "now you’re going to know how Rick Porcello feels or pitches under pressure,” is bullshit.  It would, as someone say, be an enormous buzzkill if he gets hammered. But tonight doesn't tell us much more about Porcello than the 7IP 1R game against Toronto in April or the 8IP 2R game against the twins in June. Put another way.  If he pitches a perfect game tonight, striking out 27, is there going to be any less pearl-clutching if he has a bad game next time out?
 
Besides, shouldn't we conclusively determine whether Buchholz "wants to be an ace" before we go on to other topics?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

according to this article - http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2015/07/streaking_red_sox_win_fourth_straight - Porcello threw 23 two-seamers, of which 21 were for strikes. and on those 23 pitches, there were just three singles and seven outs.

Hopefully Porcello has figured something out, perhaps with Hanigan's help.

 

[koufax32]

For a gb pitcher he sure spends a lot of time up in the zone. I'm not in NE so I've watched him only twice. Has he consistently spent an inordinate amount of time up in the zone this year?

To piggyback on that, what on earth is he doing only throwing 20 something of what should be a core pitch for him??

 

[Sampo Gida]

according to this article - http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2015/07/streaking_red_sox_win_fourth_straight - Porcello threw 23 two-seamers, of which 21 were for strikes. and on those 23 pitches, there were just three singles and seven outs.

Hopefully Porcello has figured something out, perhaps with Hanigan's help.

 
Well, it was the Marlins who are without Stanton and their offense has been pretty anemic over the last 3 weeks (2.4 RPG).   See what he brings after the ASB.  He isnt as bad as his numbers indicate I don't think

 

[smastroyin]

Have to agree, I wouldn't take too much out of the performance against this Marlins team.
 
On the other hand,he did end up recovering after his crap inning and looked decent the rest of the way.  You take what you can get.

 

[StupendousMan]

His velocity dropped considerably after the fourth inning, yet he was still effective.   I don't know how common this sort of decrease in speed is; does it suggest that he could benefit from some strength and endurance training?
 
View attachment 1182

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The velocity drop after the 4th doesn't really concern me, because to my untrained eyes, he was overthrowing in the 4th pretty badly, seemingly because he was thinking about "don't give back the lead" like he has so many other times this year. He was missing his spots pretty badly in the 4th and was up in the zone, and from my watching experience it was due to overthrowing.
 
Once he settled down after that inning he retired 8 in a row despite throwing a little bit slower. There's a lesson to be learned there, I think.

 

[JesusQuintana]

Agree completely with SJH.  He nearly lost himself completely in that 4th inning, and settled down really nicely.  I'm curious if Hanigan had something to do with getting the ship righted.
 
It's worth adding, he faced 26 batters - with one walk and four K's, 21 batters put a ball in play.  Of those, 2/3 were ground balls (14) to  7 in the air (6 line drives).  Despite leaving a ton of balls up in the fourth, he was still able to escape the game with a really favorable GB ratio.  

 

[effectivelywild]

For a gb pitcher he sure spends a lot of time up in the zone. I'm not in NE so I've watched him only twice. Has he consistently spent an inordinate amount of time up in the zone this year?

To piggyback on that, what on earth is he doing only throwing 20 something of what should be a core pitch for him??

I thought he always had a rep for being a guy that pitches up in the zone an inordinate amount compared to his GB reputation. 

 

[chrisfont9]

 I'm curious if Hanigan had something to do with getting the ship righted.

I'll believe in the righting of the ship when he pitches well against someone outside the NL East.

 

[The Tax Man]

I thought he always had a rep for being a guy that pitches up in the zone an inordinate amount compared to his GB reputation. 

You're right. He's never really targeted the bottom of the strike zone (Ian's article was published the day of his first Boston start):
 
http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/teams/al-east/boston-red-sox/pitching-repertoire-of-rick-porcello/

 

[AB in DC]

Porcello stats when pitching to Hanigan:
 
6 G, 37 IP, 31 H, 14 R, 13 ER
4 HR, 10 BB, 32 K
3.16 ERA
 
I think we may have something here.

 

[BosRedSox5]

Porcello stats when pitching to Hanigan:
 
6 G, 37 IP, 31 H, 14 R, 13 ER
4 HR, 10 BB, 32 K
3.16 ERA
 
I think we may have something here.

 
I was surprised to hear Jerry say in the booth that Hannigan felt "some of the pitch selection wasn't up to Porcello's standards." Seemed like he was throwing Swihart under the bus. 

I know that pitch calling is an art, and a lot of guys have calls relayed in from the dugout in the low minors, college and below but... With proper preparation and understanding of how to work hitters, should there be that much difference in catchers and game calling? Someone needs to get Swihart up to snuff. 

 

[Tharkin]

I was under the impression that Swihart was getting pitch calls from the dugout. Is that incorrect? Or only when he first came up?

 

[BoredViewer]

I think it's safe to say he has pitched better when Hannigan has caught. I don't think there is information to say he has pitched better because Hannigan has caught.
 
Porcello has been rocked when both Leon and Swihart have caught.  Yet, Leon has the best overall cERA and before tonight, Swihart and Hannigan were separated by only 0.25... which would lead me to think if Porcello is pitching well to Hannigan, everyone else must be pitching worse.

 

[AB in DC]

Leon has a good cERA because he always caught Buchholz.  I wouldn't draw any other conclusions besides that.

 

[twibnotes]

Leon has a good cERA because he always caught Buchholz.  I wouldn't draw any other conclusions besides that.

Very fair point but worth noting that Buch has pitched a good deal better with Leon than he has with Hanigan.

http://m.providencejournal.com/article/20150521/SPORTS/150529754

 

[AB in DC]

Very fair point but worth noting that Buch has pitched a good deal better with Leon than he has with Hanigan.

 

 
And so what?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Very fair point but worth noting that Buch has pitched a good deal better with Leon than he has with Hanigan.

http://m.providencejournal.com/article/20150521/SPORTS/150529754

 
Correlation is not causation.  Buchholz may have developed a good rapport with Leon, but he never had much chance to work through anything with Hanigan before Hanigan got hurt.  SSS has a whole lot to do with the disparity in ERA between the two catchers.

 

[BosRedSox5]

Olney had a pretty decent insider article today: http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=10809

In it, he talks about how the Red Sox moves seemed sensible at the time, but almost all of them have blown up in their faces for reasons that don't seem to have a ready explanation. He also discusses Porcello a bit. 
 

 
 
The Red Sox traded Jon Lester for Yoenis Cespedes, and then in the winter, flipped Cespedes for Rick Porcello, a 26-year-old pitcher coming off the best season of his career; they subsequently signed Porcello to a four-year extension for $83 million, a deal viewed by some rival executives as perhaps a little steep relative to the market and Porcello's history, but far from a huge mistake. Whether it's because Porcello has put too much pressure on himself to live up to Boston's investment, as some friends think, or he's in the midst of evolving in his pitch selection, his performance has been disastrous: a 5.51 ERA in 19 starts.

 
We know that Porcello's FIP isn't totally horrendous (4.42) and that he's still young and we mostly liked what we saw in 2013-2014.  I wonder if there's any credence to the idea that he's pressuring himself to live up to the commitment. I also wonder what Olney means by "evolving his pitch selection."

Is that nonsense? In Porcello fine tuning some part of his game that makes him suck now but will pay dividends in the future? 

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I blame the cutter. Why does every Sox pitcher have to incorporate that? Is it a contractual obligation? It seems like a repertoire killer.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Citing Brian Mac (again - it's nice to have a sportswriter go in depth on things like this), the problem for Porcello is that sometimes he gets in between his 2-seamer and 4-seamer, which basically means that he throws up a meatball. http://www.providencejournal.com/article/20150725/SPORTS/150729490

Farrell has mentioned something like this earlier this season. I guess the problem for Porcello is that he can't throw the 2-seamer or the 4-seamer exclusively, so he has to mix and match (though not always within the same start) and if he can't separate the two, he's in trouble.

 

[iayork]

Citing Brian Mac (again - it's nice to have a sportswriter go in depth on things like this), the problem for Porcello is that sometimes he gets in between his 2-seamer and 4-seamer, which basically means that he throws up a meatball. http://www.providencejournal.com/article/20150725/SPORTS/150729490

That's really interesting.  Brian Mac has consistently been putting out some of the most insightful reporting on the Sox this year, and this is no exception.  When I looked at Porcello's problems this year (Location is the Key for Rick Porcello) I didn't see any obvious decline in pitch quality, and tentatively suggested that his problems came not from bad pitches, but from bad location.  
 
But looking at his charts with this point in mind, I think I can see what MacPherson is talking about.  Here's Porcello's pitches this year, showing break length vs break angle vs speed:

Looking specifically at break length vs speed, his two-seams and four-seams basically blend smoothly together; their identification (which is almost entirely PITCHf/x here -- I correct some obvious errors, but I don't apply my own categorization) is basically arbitrary at the junction.  By comparison, last year Porcello showed more separation between the two pitches (see the article for more charts).
 
I wonder if I can pull out that population of pitches that are neither fish nor fowl, and see how hard they've been hit.

 

[The Tax Man]

I wonder if I can pull out that population of pitches that are neither fish nor fowl, and see how hard they've been hit.

 
Did anyone doubt him? I didn't doubt him... 
 
Rick Porcello Needs to Work on His Fastballs

 

[BosRedSox5]

 
Did anyone doubt him? I didn't doubt him... 
 
Rick Porcello Needs to Work on His Fastballs

 
From the article:

 

 
 
Porcello gets into trouble is when he inadvertently blends those two fastballs. The worst pitch Porcello throws is a two-seamer that he tries to throw as hard as his four-seamer, robbing the pitch of its movement – often with disastrous results. 

 
Why is he doing that? That's literally the opposite of what you're supposed to do with a two-seamer. I'm not a pitching guru, but a two-seamer sacrifices velocity for movement. Overthrowing it would flatten it out and get crushed. If that's indeed what Porcello is doing, that seems like an easy fix... but that's kid stuff, he should know better and a pitching coach should be able to correct that. 

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I wonder if I can pull out that population of pitches that are neither fish nor fowl, and see how hard they've been hit.

 
Great article.  Thanks for doing that.  Hopefully someone gets it to the right people.
 

 
Why is he doing that? That's literally the opposite of what you're supposed to do with a two-seamer. I'm not a pitching guru, but a two-seamer sacrifices velocity for movement. Overthrowing it would flatten it out and get crushed. If that's indeed what Porcello is doing, that seems like an easy fix... but that's kid stuff, he should know better and a pitching coach should be able to correct that. 

 
I think part of the problem is that Porcello apparently isn't comfortable throwing more of one versus the other so he mixes the pitches up from start-to-start (and sometimes within starts).  Because the pitches aren't gripped or thrown exactly the same way, maybe going back and forth like he does causes him to have mix-ups on how he's throwing the pitches.

BTW, Farrell mentioned something like this earlier this season - I believe it was with respect to Kelly but maybe it was Porcello.  Farrell said that because a pitcher is trying to get backspin on the 4-seamer, the same action will flatten out the 2-seamer and make it a meatball. 

 

[BosRedSox5]

I know pace of play rules are there for a reason... but maybe he should slow it down a touch. He's only 26, but should have thrown enough major league innings to have a better feel for what he's doing. Like I said, I really hope this is what the problem is, because it sounds really correctable. 

 

[mwonow]

Is it cynical to say that the answer to the thread title question is "He's pitching in the major leagues for the Boston Red Sox?"
 
Not that the Sox are going anywhere, but Porc is pretty clearly in the wrong league these days. I'm not sure that just running him out there to get roughed up is a winning strategy. Is this just Ben wanting to avoid having yet another 8-figure player in the ml (even if only for a rehab stint)?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Is it cynical to say that the answer to the thread title question is "He's pitching in the major leagues for the Boston Red Sox?"
 
Not that the Sox are going anywhere, but Porc is pretty clearly in the wrong league these days. I'm not sure that just running him out there to get roughed up is a winning strategy. Is this just Ben wanting to avoid having yet another 8-figure player in the ml (even if only for a rehab stint)?

Well he pitched well last time out, so they probably thought that he'd figured something out. After tonight, who the hell knows, but I'm pretty sure he'll keep getting starts.

 

[twibnotes]

 
Correlation is not causation.  Buchholz may have developed a good rapport with Leon, but he never had much chance to work through anything with Hanigan before Hanigan got hurt.  SSS has a whole lot to do with the disparity in ERA between the two catchers.

SSS MAY have something to do with it, but we don't know that. Farrell himself implies that Leon helped Buch perform better.

Baseball managers have to extrapolate from small sample sizes sometimes.

 

[mwonow]

Well he pitched well last time out, so they probably thought that he'd figured something out. After tonight, who the hell knows, but I'm pretty sure he'll keep getting starts.

I'm pretty sure you're right, but that's not a reassuring thought!

 

[semsox]

Apparently his triceps is what's wrong. Heading to the DL. Cook activated for his spot on the active roster.

 

[Toe Nash]

I wonder how long this has been bothering him. I know that very few players are actually 100% at any point, but you have to wonder if he was pitching through something.

 

[grimshaw]

Guessing we'll see Owens on Tuesday now unless Brian Johnson gets scratched today.

 

[semsox]

Guessing we'll see Owens on Tuesday now unless Brian Johnson gets scratched today.

 
They'd have to burn a 40 man spot to bring Owens up. Since they seem to love mismanaging Johnson's days off, I bet he's scratched tonight.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

They'd have to burn a 40 man spot to bring Owens up. Since they seem to love mismanaging Johnson's days off, I bet he's scratched tonight.

How would scratching Johnson tonight so he can pitch Tuesday be mismanaging his days off?

 

[semsox]

How would scratching Johnson tonight so he can pitch Tuesday be mismanaging his days off?

 
The comment was more in relation to how he was handled during his last call-up, where he pitched at Pawtucket on the 6th, and then his next game appearance was his major league debut, July 21st on 15 days rest. He'll only have 7 days rest for this start if they go that route. 

 

[LostinNJ]

I wonder if his workload last year is affecting his performance this year. Each year from 2011 to 2013, he pitched about 180 innings in the regular season (though with 15 postseason innings in 2011). In 2014 he was a little over 200. A pitcher should be able to handle such an increase, but maybe it was too much for this pitcher. If so, a rebound next year wouldn't be a surprise, especially if a DL stint keeps his innings down this year.

 

[pjheff]

If we're speculating, I wonder if Porcello injured himself in the first inning of his last start when he went diving into 1B to get Saladino: http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/29387502/v309126483/cwsbos-porcello-dives-to-first-to-tag-base-for-out/?affiliateId=clubMEGAMENU

 

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

Meh. "Triceps strain" is a good way to get someone on the phantom DL.

 

[steveluck7]

 
They'd have to burn a 40 man spot to bring Owens up. Since they seem to love mismanaging Johnson's days off, I bet he's scratched tonight.

They are at 39 as of right now so they have the room and I would think he'd get a call up in September anyhow so Owens is certainly plausible.

 

[tomdeplonty]

Farrell in the post game just said Owens will debut Tuesday in New York.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Meh. "Triceps strain" is a good way to get someone on the phantom DL.

 
DRS, what's the likelihood that
 
1) this is a precursor/euphemism for something more serious in that general vicinity (shoulder or elbow)? 
 
2) it might actually have been bothering him for a while and affecting his performance?

 

[alwyn96]

I wonder how long this has been bothering him. I know that very few players are actually 100% at any point, but you have to wonder if he was pitching through something.

 
Hard to know. Almost everyone's pitching through something at some point in the season. Where a player/team decides it's too much can be the degree of pain/bad performance. Maybe it's new, or maybe it hurt a little bit before and now it hurts too much.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if Porcello had been overthrowing to try to compensate for having such a lousy year, and it's led to something. Or it's just time to shut the guy down and let him try to clear his head and get a fresh start. 

 

[semsox]

RedSoxStats posted this last night on Twitter. Looks encouraging to me!
 
https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/636730227025149952

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Porcello is saying that he's going to concentrate on the two-seamer: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/08/lauber_rick_porcello_returns_in_vintage_form

"I was throwing some pretty good four-seam fastballs early on in the year and it was a viable weapon for me. And in turn, it kind of led me to getting away from doing what I do well, which is sink the ball,” Porcello said. “I kind of came to the realization that I need to throw sinkers primarily and then occasionally throw a four-seamer, not 50-50 or anything like that.

* * * *

"I thought about it a lot, and the more and more I thought about it, the more and more frustrated I’d get with myself for getting away from what I’ve done,” Porcello said. “I just had some success with it and kind of got carried away. That’s the best way you can describe it. But I learned from it and it’s over with now, and I know where I need to be and just stay disciplined with that.”

 

[threecy]

"I was throwing some pretty good four-seam fastballs early on in the year and it was a viable weapon for me. And in turn, it kind of led me to getting away from doing what I do well, which is sink the ball,” Porcello said. “I kind of came to the realization that I need to throw sinkers primarily and then occasionally throw a four-seamer, not 50-50 or anything like that."
 
 
If this is indeed the case - that Porcello sort of came to the realization on his own - then what the heck is the coaching and scouting staff doing?