Road to the One Seed Stops at Number Two
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If you are right (and I think so), look at it this way.
1. These things sometimes have a way of working out in a way that you curse what you wished for.
2. Get used to it. Despite the unpredictability of these things, the Steelers almost certainly will have their way with Denver unless Ben gags the game, which is not unprecedent but very rare. Pittsburgh desperately needs every game, this game is at home, and it's not a good matchup stylistically for the Broncos.
3. If a matchup with Pittsburgh is inevitable, get it out of the way early. When the Pats likely will be at their healthiest after a bye, cause every game we play this year seems to bring several injuries. For better and worse, if we don't win the SB, it almost does not matter when we lose. Pats are far beyond hanging in to take it one step beyond last year.
Yeah Pats have a phenomenal record at home in the divisional round - only 1 loss ever (2010) vs. wins in 2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. Healthier and more time to game plan. I would rather play Pittsburgh in round 2 than round 3 I think, assuming we play them either way
FTFY, consider it payment for what the S&B did for you yesterday.
I think you need to root for the Steelers, since Denver, especially in Mile High, is the only team that can beat the Pats. I am confident that Brady with most of his weapons back can outscore Ben &Co. in Gillette. I have enough respect for that Denver defense to think that the best chance of the Pats not making the SuperBowl is in a rock fight in Mile High were fluky shit happens.
The only other potential match up that seems worrisome for the Pats would be Kansas City in a game where their pass rush and secondary can shut down the Pats passing game and keep it close. Even then, I can't see an Alex Smith led offense scoring much, and the BB vs Andy Reid game management match up is just too lopsided to think that weird things could give the Chiefs enough advantage to win. So, root for the Steelers Pats fans.
I realize the Pats have nothing to do with it but I like that the shirts the last couple years have been feisty - last year was "Patriots Run the East"
I know that's why I said it has nothing to do with the Pats. However, they apply more to the Pats since the Pats DO own the east
The biggest obstacle in my mind to the Pats being in the Super Bowl is having to play a playoff game in Denver. Whether it's this particular Pats team, Pats teams of recent vintage or Pats teams over the years, very bad things happen in that place for the New England entrant. Whether it's the altitude, the crowd noise, too many trips to the dispensaries or a combination of some or all of the above, the record is what it is, and it is not pretty.
Go Steelers, beat them Broncos.
And, to be clear, I have a healthy amount of respect for the Steelers. Ben is one of the better QBs in football and he's got three dangerous WRs, a very reliable TE and a RB who is turning in a very good season. So it's not as if Pittsburgh is to be taken lightly. But as compared between beating that team in Gillette and having to travel to Colorado, I will take the former with ease.
Go Steelers, beat them Broncos.
And, to be clear, I have a healthy amount of respect for the Steelers. Ben is one of the better QBs in football and he's got three dangerous WRs, a very reliable TE and a RB who is turning in a very good season. So it's not as if Pittsburgh is to be taken lightly. But as compared between beating that team in Gillette and having to travel to Colorado, I will take the former with ease.
Some stats from Footballdb.com (Brady era)
The Pats are 2-6 in Denver with the only win since 2003 being against Tim Tebow.
The Pats are 5-2 at home against Denver with the last loss being in 2006.
Pats are 4-1 against the Steelers at home including a win this season.
Pats are 4-2 on the road against the Steelers.
Not sure playing in Denver is preferred over any scenario.
Yeah, I know the stats. Pittsburgh is a better team than Denver as it currently stands by DVOA, Vegas, and IMO eyetest. I expect that gap widens over the next several weeks if the Steelers don't sustain injuries.
I don't really put much weight on small sample sizes over a decade and a half. Pats happened to play in Denver with their three of their four weakest teams of the past decade (Twice in '05, '09, '13 post injuries), lost in Brady's fifth NFL start, and we all saw what needed to happen this year for the Pats to lose. I don't think Duane Starks or Champ Bailey would play a key role in any rematch.
I'd rather just play the worse team if forced to choose. Obviously would rather play Denver at home than in Denver.
I don't really put much weight on small sample sizes over a decade and a half. Pats happened to play in Denver with their three of their four weakest teams of the past decade (Twice in '05, '09, '13 post injuries), lost in Brady's fifth NFL start, and we all saw what needed to happen this year for the Pats to lose. I don't think Duane Starks or Champ Bailey would play a key role in any rematch.
I'd rather just play the worse team if forced to choose. Obviously would rather play Denver at home than in Denver.
The Steelers have a great offense, and that's always dangerous, but they're not trotting the Steel Curtain out on D. I'm not that impressed with shutting down A.J. McCarron and Hasselbeck / Whitehurst the last two weeks. They held the Browns to 9 points but Manziel threw for 372 yards. They allowed 35 points to Oakland and Seattle in their last five games. They do have some good performances on the year, holding Cincy to 16 points and less than 300 yards in Week 8, and holding the Cardinals to 13 points (albeit with big yardage) in Week 6, but I wouldn't anticipate any problems putting up points on them. The Pats scored 28 points Week 1 on 8 real drives, which is extremely efficient.
Denver is scary in Denver because of the altitude. The defense was a total sieve in the fourth quarter / OT of the game a couple weeks ago, and while better health on O might let the defense rest more in a rematch, I'd feel a lot more confident with that matchup in Foxboro.
Steelers for sure aren't a great defense. They are, on the whole, a better team than Denver by the metrics I mentioned. Im open to other metrics, but Id just rather play the worse team.
I don't worry that much about the altitude. I haven't seen any research that Denver has a better homefield advantage than anyone else. The Pats rotate D Lineman reasonably liberally this year. They lost Hightower mid game and were missing Collins, Im not taking a lot out of that 2nd half defensive performance.
Id obviously much rather play Denver here than in Denver.
I don't worry that much about the altitude. I haven't seen any research that Denver has a better homefield advantage than anyone else. The Pats rotate D Lineman reasonably liberally this year. They lost Hightower mid game and were missing Collins, Im not taking a lot out of that 2nd half defensive performance.
Id obviously much rather play Denver here than in Denver.
I think we all agree that on a neutral field or in Foxboro, we would rather face Denver. But going to Denver always - always - has its problems. To repeat, the Pats have won their twice in the Brady era - once in the intentional safety game, another vs. Tebow. Shit just goes wrong out there. Always has.
The problem has typically been a not that good (2005 twice, 2009) or very injured Patriots team (2013, this year) has had to play in Denver while the better or healthy Patriots teams haven't had to play there. Im not really worried about any Denver voodoo curse or anything. Steelers are about a 3 to 4 point team better than Denver right now, so Id rather play Denver in Denver than Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh.
Id also rather play the Giants in the Super Bowl this season than Carolina this year despite having a bad record against the Giants in the Super Bowl. If we could play Baltimore in a playoff game Id be rooting for that despite a middling records against Baltimore. Im just not that hung up on a game ten years ago where Duane Starks personally gave up about 425 yards of passing offense.
Id also rather play the Giants in the Super Bowl this season than Carolina this year despite having a bad record against the Giants in the Super Bowl. If we could play Baltimore in a playoff game Id be rooting for that despite a middling records against Baltimore. Im just not that hung up on a game ten years ago where Duane Starks personally gave up about 425 yards of passing offense.
DVOA has them back-to-back at #7 and #8, so it's well within rounding - especially since DVOA doesn't account for the myriad factors that may no longer apply (the games Landry Jones and Peyton started earlier in the year, the backup QBs Pittsburgh got to face the last couple weeks, etc.). I think it's more philosophical than anything - would you rather play the team with a great O and a suspect D or the team with a great D and a suspect O?
I hope it was the altitude, because otherwise I'd be concerned that Kubiak found a weaknesses in the Pats D late. They piled 23 points on in basically a quarter.
I think the weakness was the Pats didn't have Hightower or Collins on the field.
Pitt is -6 this week. That puts Pitt 2-4 points better on a neutral which seems right to me given the current state of the teams. Seems right to me, but everyone has their own opinions and metrics and such. If you have football reasons why you think Denver is tougher (fears the defense was exploited, facing a tough D) or think they're basically equal teams, fair enough, makes sense.
I more just always disagree with the idea that we should worry about playing in a particular place or playing a particular team because "well, the record in past years isn't good". Its one thing if there is football reason behind it, similar personnel for each side, etc, but games from 15 years ago with different personnel and schemes and coaching...I just don't see why that matters.
Pitt is -6 this week. That puts Pitt 2-4 points better on a neutral which seems right to me given the current state of the teams. Seems right to me, but everyone has their own opinions and metrics and such. If you have football reasons why you think Denver is tougher (fears the defense was exploited, facing a tough D) or think they're basically equal teams, fair enough, makes sense.
I more just always disagree with the idea that we should worry about playing in a particular place or playing a particular team because "well, the record in past years isn't good". Its one thing if there is football reason behind it, similar personnel for each side, etc, but games from 15 years ago with different personnel and schemes and coaching...I just don't see why that matters.
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And the offense wasn't allowed to get first downs, which put the defense right back on the field each time.
And when the defense did their part, that didn't get to count either.
Basically, taking anything away from the last quarter of that game considering the injuries and officiating is a fool's errand, IMO.
I'm sure that didn't help, but I'm concerned if taking away two players makes them go from a pretty good D to the worst defense in the league.
I mean, have people forgotten the utter shit show that was the final quarter in Denver, between the ST muff and questionable calls?
That was a black swan event.
That being said, I'll take home field above any other factor. Just take all comers.
That was a black swan event.
That being said, I'll take home field above any other factor. Just take all comers.
I haven't, but I also haven't forgotten that Denver had to drive 83 yards for a TD in 2.5 minutes with an inexperienced QB and no timeouts and got 75 yards in the first three plays. I also haven't forgotten that they allowed a 48-yard TD game-winning TD run in overtime or a 15-yard run to make it a 7-point game.
The Steelers are currently ranked 31st against the pass with the Broncos ranked #1. Given the Pats emphasis on the passing game, I am having a hard time seeing how the Denver matchup is preferable even if you ignore historical and recent win/loss records against each opponent.
I get that many of the circumstances surrounding losses at Denver feel like aberrations, but there have been enough of these weird/shitty results for me to feel like playing at Denver is a recipe for disaster.
I get that many of the circumstances surrounding losses at Denver feel like aberrations, but there have been enough of these weird/shitty results for me to feel like playing at Denver is a recipe for disaster.
yea but are we not pretty well decided that it would be
"Denver in Denver or Pitt In Foxborough".
What would you take then?
Its a stacking injury involving 2 of the 3 or four best players on the D, one of who they lost in game to injury. Im just inclined to not weight it that much, although that's a judgment call.
The Steelers are currently ranked 31st against the pass with the Broncos ranked #1. Given the Pats emphasis on the passing game, I am having a hard time seeing how the Denver matchup is preferable even if you ignore historical and recent win/loss records against each opponent.
The flip side of that is the Steelers offense is much, much better than Denver's. Bryant and Brown with Roethlisberger healthy is a matchup nightmare for the Pats secondary, and the Steelers were very efficient on offense in the opener in Foxboro without Bryant (although I think the Pats defense has come a long way since then) That's a much harder matchup for the defense than Denver's offense unless Manning rises from the dead.
I understand this, I do. I have to reach back a dozen effin years for a warm moment at Denver, when we barely beat Danny effin Kannel, 3rd string QB, and then only after BB pulled an intentional safety out of his butt with minutes left. If there is another good memory from that godforsaken place, I forget it.
But the Pats had the Broncos by the throat in the 4th quarter a few weeks ago, holding them to 7 points until a goddamned rookie muffed a goddamned punt, and then everything went to seed.
In Pittsburgh, I see a team -- and it's probably the only team in the AFC -- that could keep up with us in a track meet, assuming the Pats are healthy. Yes, their secondary is a big weakness. They are likely to yield a lot of points. But with those WRs and Ben, they are likely to score a lot of points. A "whoever-has-the-ball-last-wins" contest in a game with them would be a good bet.
That's the concern, which I share. That said, I hope and expect Pittsburg wins Sunday.
The other thing with mentioning with Pitt is Ben, like other years, is getting beat up pretty bad. He's missed time with a concussion and he was lucky to escape that leg injury with minimal time missed. If his luck runs out, Pittsburg's backup QB situation is atrocious, and unlike Denver, they don't have the D to cover for bad quarterbacking.
Wait... Am I missing something?
This year the Patriots have already beaten Pittsburgh in Foxboro.
This year the Patriots have already lost to Denver in Denver.
How can someone argue we would rather play the team we lost to than the team we beat?
Because the team the Pats beat is better than the team they lost to and they only lost because everything went against them, bad luck, injuries and terrible calls.
Ready for a worthless prediction?
This weekend is going to be a repeat of last weekend. Pats win, Broncos lose against Pitt, Bengals lose against San Francisco.
It's going to blow my mind if indeed the Pats win and Denver loses and with two games left the Pats clinch a bye. Man...Denver's loss to Oakland was HUGE.
It feels like we have some version of this discussion every season. There's always that flavor-of-the-month team out there that Pats fans fear and hope to avoid. Maybe I'm missing something, but give me a healthy Tom Brady with a healthy Gronk, Edelman and Amendola to throw to and this year's 'where did that guy come from?' running back and a defense with Hightower and Collins back in playing shape and I'll take our chances in Foxboro against the Steelers.
All of this conjecture assumes that Pittsburgh even gets there. As Marciano490 noted, Big Ben is taking a pounding this year and I wouldn't be shocked if he gets concussed again and misses time and possibly costs Pitt a playoff berth or win and bringing KC, Houston or the Jets to Foxboro for the divisional round.
All of this conjecture assumes that Pittsburgh even gets there. As Marciano490 noted, Big Ben is taking a pounding this year and I wouldn't be shocked if he gets concussed again and misses time and possibly costs Pitt a playoff berth or win and bringing KC, Houston or the Jets to Foxboro for the divisional round.
I've never understood this line of thinking. I'd much rather see the Pats play all the best teams on the way to the Super Bowl.
I get the appeal of watching better games. Personally, Id like to maximize the chances of winning the Super Bowl. Its usually shades of grey among the playoff teams, but this year, Id much rather just almost always soulcrush the AFC South fodder in the divisional round game vs. have a much higher chance of a potentially competitive game with the Steelers or KC. They don't get extra points for degree of difficulty.
I think the proper strategy is to root for Pitt to go up three scores and then have Ben go out with another migraine and miss the following two weeks. Best of all worlds.
I've seen this in several places, and I'm still trying to wrap my hands around this. If the Pats and Denver both tie at the end of the year, how can the Pats claim top seed as Denver wins the head-to-head tie-breaker?
He's not talking about the #1 seed, just a bye (meaning at least the #2 seed).
So...if things shaped up with:
Pats (bye)
Bengals (bye)
Broncos
Texans
Jets
Chiefs
Wild Card: Chiefs @ Broncos; Jets @ Texans
If it played out this way, could you not see KC and the Jets both winning, setting up:
Divisional: Chiefs @ Patriots; Jets @ Bengals
With the Patriots and freakin' Jets winning? I absolutely think NYJ could win in Cinci (sans Dalton).
Again, there's still a lot to play out here - I'm just having fun with this - but it's conceivable that you could have a Patriots/Jets AFCCG. The Jets could be lined up to have an extremely favorable slate of playoff games until the AFCCG if they make it in.
Pats (bye)
Bengals (bye)
Broncos
Texans
Jets
Chiefs
Wild Card: Chiefs @ Broncos; Jets @ Texans
If it played out this way, could you not see KC and the Jets both winning, setting up:
Divisional: Chiefs @ Patriots; Jets @ Bengals
With the Patriots and freakin' Jets winning? I absolutely think NYJ could win in Cinci (sans Dalton).
Again, there's still a lot to play out here - I'm just having fun with this - but it's conceivable that you could have a Patriots/Jets AFCCG. The Jets could be lined up to have an extremely favorable slate of playoff games until the AFCCG if they make it in.
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