Should the FO Pack it in already?

[Todd Benzinger]

Savin made a very interesting post that I wanted to hear more about, but it was in the JBJ thread. The big question under debate was whether or not the Sox should stop thinking about the postseason already and start looking at the rest of 2015 as developmental time/ tryouts for 2016.
 
Savin pointed out that a number of teams before the 2nd WC era would've made it from as far back as the Sox are now. And I would add, those teams didn't have the 2nd wildcard to shoot for, so it is possible that they were less aggressive in terms of getting the best team on the field than they could've been.
 

 
The following teams were 7 or more GB after 81 games and (unless I'm missing something) would have made 2nd WC:
 
1997 Dodgers: 8 
1998 Blue Jays: 16.5
1999 Athletics: 7
2000 Indians: 10
2005 Indians: 9.5
2005 Phillies: 8.5
2006 Phillies: 11.0
2009 Giants: 7.5

 

 
Obviously, of course, this anecdotal list does not at all prove that the Sox would be wise to keep going for it. If 8 teams would have made it over 12 years, many more would not have. OTOH, the Sox have vastly underperformed preseason projections, so there is some theoretical hope that they are much better in terms of underlying talent than they have shown.
 
In the context of the discussion in the JBJ thread, the question was if the Sox should favor De Aza or JBJ. But it seems possible to me that JBJ might actually do more to help the team win than De Aza would anyway. IOW, it is possible that taking the developmental/2016 approach could actually lead to better results on the field... And certainly going young with the pitching could help--I have more hope for Brian Johnson going forward than for Masterson... And maybe cutting ties with vets like Napoli would actually be good either way.
 
So, I wanted to hear the thoughts of SoSH on this issue. What approach would you favor? How thoroughly doomed are the Sox for the postseason this year?

 

[threecy]

I don't think there's a tremendous difference between the existing 2015 squad and a punted, development version.
 
If they can deal Victorino, Napoli, and Koji and perhaps get some minor league talent, perhaps they could then use that as part of the basis of being buyers if there's anyone they can acquire and extend.

 

[Thelobsterroll]

I think their is still time for a miracle to happen. I am guessing in order to orchestrate a trade the front office only needs a week or so. So see what happens the next two to three weeks and if they are still in last place (which they most likely will be) then start selling.

 

[opes]

Its extremely unlikely they can make up 8 games with the way they are currently playing.  The season is toast, and they should be trying to sell off what they can.  Joe Kelly still has a chance to win the Cy Young, and we should see if we can swap for Harper.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I agree with you. I'd much rather see the youngsters get playing time at this point to show us what they can do. Not a fan of our rotation, I was confident our offense would keep us competitive. I didn't realize, however, just how bad both would be.

In my dream world, we'd start with replacing Ben and Farrell, trade Holt while he still has lots of value for a contender, give away Vic and Napoli, shop Panda and Hanley (but not give either away as they aren't complete busts), bring up some young arms and dangle Koji and Tazawa.

Then again, I'd love to see Varitek as the skipper with Pedro our pitching coach and Millar a bench coach. I'd love Manny as a hitting coach but that's too fantastical for even my wildest dreams.

In reality, I see no better option than playing as many youngsters as we can and hoping they live up to expectations.

 

[ivanvamp]

This team needs one excellent two-week stretch, something like 11-3 or even 12-2, to get back into the hunt.  Sadly, I don't think they have that in them.  They're just too inconsistent.  

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I don't think there's a tremendous difference between the existing 2015 squad and a punted, development version.
 
If they can deal Victorino, Napoli, and Koji and perhaps get some minor league talent, perhaps they could then use that as part of the basis of being buyers if there's anyone they can acquire and extend.

 
Yeah, I think there's a fair question as to what "packing it in" would even look like for this group, other than playing Bradley (and/or Castillo) over De Aza (and/or Victorino). Giving Craig another shot? Putting Johnson in the rotation over Masterson? Giving someone else a opportunity to close (who, exactly)? Moving Vic and Napoli doesn't really move the needle in my view, since their contributions have been minimal this season regardless. I think it's a great idea to explore the markets for Uehara and Tazawa, but those are the only really drastic moves that make any sense.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The team as it is presently constituted can not sustain success.  They haven't been able to put together a winning streak because all phases of the team haven't been good for a stretch of time at the same time.  The pitching started out horribly yet they hit well during the first week or so.  They were also helped out by a inordinate number of unearned runs.  Then, the offense went into the tank wasting improved pitching performances.  Now that the offense is back and hitting pretty well, there have been horrible pitching performances that have wasted good nights at the plate.
 
I said after the KC series that they'd have to at least win 2 of 3(win both against Miami in that instance) in all remaining series before the ASB before I started even thinking about them as having a chance to salvage this season.  They'll need to sweep somebody to make up for the Baltimore series now.
 
If they don't make up significant ground between now and the ASB, then it's time to sell off parts they can without messing up the future.

 

[amfox1]

I think you have to give the team at least until the all-star break to make buy-sell decisions.   Then, the organization can use the break to start laying the groundwork for trades and figure out promotion paths.
 
Players on the trade block would clearly include the FAs (Napoli, ShaneO, Masterson, Breslow) to try to free up roster spots, save a little bit of money and get closer to the luxury tax threshold, although none of these players will bring back any significant return.  
 
The next tier of players to consider trading are the relievers (Koji, Taz and Ogando) and Buchholz, who are players who will free up money and bring back a significant return.
 
The goal would be to get under the luxury tax threshold this year, open pitching spots for Johnson and either Kelly/Wright in the rotation and Light and Wright/Kelly in the bullpen, and get some additional prospects in trade to plug into the organization and/or to use as trade bait for upgrades.

 

[threecy]

I disagree with dumping Tazawa and Holt.  Both are in their 20s and have been improving in recent years.  Both could be key contributors in 2016.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

The Red Sox don’t have the starting pitching to go anywhere this year.  Cherington and Farrell sabotaged this team before the season began by building a middling starting staff that had no chance to compete for a championship.

 

[NDame616]

I disagree with dumping Tazawa and Holt.  Both are in their 20s and have been improving in recent years.  Both could be key contributors in 2016.

 
People get crazy at the deadline, especially for relievers. Considering how streaky bullpen arms are, if you get a good deal for Taz I think you have to take it and hopes you can replace him from within, or as a low risk FA signing

 

[jasail]

I'm not sure what packing it in for this team looks like. They have four guys who could bring back something in a trade. (Buchholz, Taz, Koji and Holt). However, I don't think trading them makes the Sox any better in 2016 team, which should be the objective. So while I'd listen to offers for these guys, I wouldn't jump at the first opportunity to jettison them. So the only other thing they can really do to pack it in is to move on from guys who certainly won't be in Boston next year. Then, in turn give guys in the system an opportunity to stake an inside track to those jobs in 2016. Principally, this would consist of moving on from Napoli, Victorino, Masterson and Breslow and giving time full time opportunities to Craig , Bradley/Castillo, Johnson and Wright. Alternatively, if it is a buyers market, they should also consider buying, which is the subject of its own thread. 

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

The thing about Johnson is that they don't really have a spot for him next year as of now unless someone gets injured or traded. If you assume Buchholz, Porcello, Rodriguez, and Miley are all in the rotation next year, that leaves one opening, and you'd expect them to get an upper-tier guy for that gig, especially since there should be a few of those available this offseason.

 

[Gash Prex]

Imagine if we had Lester's ERA+ of 94 versus Miley's ERA+ of 91 - we'd definitely be in it then.  Maybe even James Shields ERA+ of 83 might have helped too...Brandon McCarthy...oh right.  Ervin Santana...hmm..never mind.    Only pitcher that would have helped IMO is Schrezer and that was a 200+ million commitment or mortgaging the future for Hamels.  

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Imagine if we had Lester's ERA+ of 94 versus Miley's ERA+ of 91 - we'd definitely be in it then.  Maybe even James Shields ERA+ of 83 might have helped too...Brandon McCarthy...oh right.  Ervin Santana...hmm..never mind.    Only pitcher that would have helped IMO is Schrezer and that was a 200+ million commitment or mortgaging the future for Hamels.  

 
Shields and Lester both have been fairly significantly better than Masterson (72 ERA+), Kelly (71), and Porcello (72). 

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

 
Shields and Lester both have been fairly significantly better than Masterson (72 ERA+), Kelly (71), and Porcello (72). 

Not to mention John Lackey (ERA+ 114)

 

[E5 Yaz]

There's a very real possibility that they'll have to win the division to earn a playoff spot. That means jumping past four teams, all of which they play multiple times, during a season where they have a disastrous start against AL East teams.
 
Even if you don't believe in the smoke and mirrors job they've done in Tampa Bay this season, you've still got to believe that the Red Sox can get past the other three teams.
 
The question really is, does anything they have to trade serve to bring back something that would be worth the deal? A set-up reliever or a expert utility player are valuable components ... but what do they truly bring back? One name to consider dealing is Wade Miley -- who has been pitching better, is lefthanded, controls the running game and has an extension that isn't prohibitive.
 
Other than that, you're dealing pieces for pieces, which is a crapshoot

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

There's a very real possibility that they'll have to win the division to earn a playoff spot. That means jumping past four teams, all of which they play multiple times, during a season where they have a disastrous start against AL East teams.
 
Even if you don't believe in the smoke and mirrors job they've done in Tampa Bay this season, you've still got to believe that the Red Sox can get past the other three teams.
 
The question really is, does anything they have to trade serve to bring back something that would be worth the deal? A set-up reliever or a expert utility player are valuable components ... but what do they truly bring back? One name to consider dealing is Wade Miley -- who has been pitching better, is lefthanded, controls the running game and has an extension that isn't prohibitive.
 
Other than that, you're dealing pieces for pieces, which is a crapshoot

 
I agree that Miley probably has trade value, but I don't really see the value in trading him for that reason. I think one of the problems with this team is that last year they took an approach of collecting as many assets as possible with little consideration as to how they fit together. 

 

[fineyoungarm]

I disagree with dumping Tazawa and Holt.  Both are in their 20s and have been improving in recent years.  Both could be key contributors in 2016.

Agree completely. Welcome to the Red Sox version of Catch - 22. To get some talent in return, they will have to deal talent. (I am at the top of my game today.) 
 
If they deal some  players, other than their untouchable talent (X, Betts, Swihart, Buchholz - I guess Buchholz), there is a good chance that will not improve them. Tazawa is top drawer set up man (and possibly closer). Deal him and the bullpen may border on the dreadful in 2016. I don't see getting full value for Holt, because his talents are so idiosyncratic. Who's left with value - Koji? He may bring value from team trying to make the post season.
 
Of the several "old" every day guys, I am embarrassed to admit that I do not know who has no-trade clauses in their contracts. Pedroia and Ortiz must, so they are not going anywhere (and the latter probably would not get you much). (IF, IF you could trade Pedroia for value, I think the team is so lean when it comes to pitching, that the FO would have to consider it.)
 
They would have to eat a chunk of their contracts, but one would think the FO also would listen to offers for Ramirez and Sandoval. The team has Holt, a couple of stop gap (or better, who knows?) infielders and just about anybody would be an improvement over Hanley in left.
 
Isn't that pretty much the list of everybody on the 24 man roster that might be of interest to a contender?  It's a fine mess you've gotten us into this time Allard.
 
In other news - over at the SoSH blog there is a post the "scouts" opine that of all the teams in MLB the Red Sox are the most loaded at the lower minor league levels.

 

[fineyoungarm]

 
I agree that Miley probably has trade value, but I don't really see the value in trading him for that reason. I think one of the problems with this team is that last year they took an approach of collecting as many assets as possible with little consideration as to how they fit together. 

If Miley has potential, isn't the rotation so mediocre that you best not deal him?  As between Miley and Buchholz, who is likely to bring more in return?

 

[fineyoungarm]

I think their is still time for a miracle to happen. I am guessing in order to orchestrate a trade the front office only needs a week or so. So see what happens the next two to three weeks and if they are still in last place (which they most likely will be) then start selling.

I still think that "there is time for miracles to happen" should be eliminated from the SoSH lexicon.

 

[Thelobsterroll]

I still think that "there is time for miracles to happen" should be eliminated from the SoSH lexicon.

So your not aware of the events of 2004?

 

[grimshaw]

Can anybody rank how our top 4 right fielders will be in productivity until the end of the year between Nava, Victorino, Bradley, and Castillo?
I don't think their team will get worse if they just give the kids a whirl given how execrable, Porcello, Masterson, Kelly, Napoli have been.
Which kids are we even talking about who aren't getting a shot now?   
 
The only significant pieces they can move that will impact their win/loss is Buchholz or Koji which has already been discussed.
 
OTOH, it is a hell of a sellers market, the Mets need an OF, and Hanley Ramirez is on this baseball team.

 

[fineyoungarm]

So your not aware of the events of 2004?

No.  Did something good happen?  Did the team have starting pitching? A major league caliber bullpen? Hitting even? 

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

If Miley has potential, isn't the rotation so mediocre that you best not deal him?  As between Miley and Buchholz, who is likely to bring more in return?

 
I wouldn't trade Buchholz either, personally. To reiterate and clarify, everyone seems like they're itching to make a bunch of trades, but I don't see the point unless someone's offering a Major-League ready 1B or this year's version of Eduardo Rodriguez. I would rather they not deal someone like Buchholz just so they can collect assets for depth or for spinning off in future trades. 

 

[fineyoungarm]

 
I wouldn't trade Buchholz either, personally. To reiterate and clarify, everyone seems like they're itching to make a bunch of trades, but I don't see the point unless someone's offering a Major-League ready 1B or this year's version of Eduardo Rodriguez. I would rather they not deal someone like Buchholz just so they can collect assets for depth or for spinning off in future trades. 

I agree - unless they shop some of their "touchables" and get strong hits, preserve what little core the team has. (I do not consider Ramirez, Sandoval and Koji to constitute core players, however.) And use more calomine lotion in the meantime.

 

[Thelobsterroll]

No.  Did something good happen?  Did the team have starting pitching? A major league caliber bullpen? Hitting even? 

That's why the idea of a miracle is not that far fetch. Over the past month or so Miley, Buch, and Erod have been pretty solid. Now that Kelly got the boot their is a chance to stabilize another rotation spot. In addition the last couple of weeks have seen the offense come around. And with Ogando Koji and Taz and Layne the bullpen is not bad. Now if I was a betting man I would place my money on the Sox selling come the end of July, but the ingredients are their for the unlikely to happen.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I agree - unless they shop some of their "touchables" and get strong hits, preserve what little core the team has. (I do not consider Ramirez, Sandoval and Koji to constitute core players, however.) And use more calomine lotion in the meantime.

You're expecting poison ivy? Mike Ivie? 

 

[opes]

That's why the idea of a miracle is not that far fetch. Over the past month or so Miley, Buch, and Erod have been pretty solid. Now that Kelly got the boot their is a chance to stabilize another rotation spot. In addition the last couple of weeks have seen the offense come around. And with Ogando Koji and Taz and Layne the bullpen is not bad. Now if I was a betting man I would place my money on the Sox selling come the end of July, but the ingredients are their for the unlikely to happen.

 
The 2015 Red Sox is no where near comparable to the 2004 Red Sox.  Stop.

 

[Thelobsterroll]

 
The 2015 Red Sox is no where near comparable to the 2004 Red Sox.  Stop.

Agreed and wasn't my point.

 

[Brianish]

That's why the idea of a miracle is not that far fetch. Over the past month or so Miley, Buch, and Erod have been pretty solid. Now that Kelly got the boot their is a chance to stabilize another rotation spot. In addition the last couple of weeks have seen the offense come around. And with Ogando Koji and Taz and Layne the bullpen is not bad. Now if I was a betting man I would place my money on the Sox selling come the end of July, but the ingredients are their for the unlikely to happen.

 
If the Sox play at 100 game pace the rest of the way, they'll wind up in the mid-80s. To match that, the Os only have to play around .500. To say nothing of the 3 other teams in the way.
 
Hoping for miracles is fine. PLANNING for them, especially when we're talking about the investment of millions, and potentially missing the opportunity to strengthen your team for the future, is ridiculous. Besides, if you're expecting a miracle, is it really that much less likely after we sell a guy or two?

 

[dynomite]

I don't think there's a tremendous difference between the existing 2015 squad and a punted, development version.
 
If they can deal Victorino, Napoli, and Koji and perhaps get some minor league talent, perhaps they could then use that as part of the basis of being buyers if there's anyone they can acquire and extend.

I think this is an important distinction. And I would add to it: there's no need to make this decision for 2-3 more weeks.

With the 3rd worst record in the AL and 8 teams between them and the 2nd Wild Card, the chances that the Sox play another meaningful game in 2015 are quite low. Still, there's a theoretical chance that they do.

Luckily the Red Sox are already casting an eye toward 2016, as players like Xander, Mookie, Swihart, Hot Rod, and Holt get extended playing time. Best of all, those players have been good enough that they could be part of some theoretical Cinderella run to the playoffs in 2015. The tradeable players (Masterson, Victorino, Napoli) haven't been contributing much anyway.

 

[Thelobsterroll]

 
If the Sox play at 100 game pace the rest of the way, they'll wind up in the mid-80s. To match that, the Os only have to play around .500. To say nothing of the 3 other teams in the way.
 
Hoping for miracles is fine. PLANNING for them, especially when we're talking about the investment of millions, and potentially missing the opportunity to strengthen your team for the future, is ridiculous. Besides, if you're expecting a miracle, is it really that much less likely after we sell a guy or two?

Agree again.i don't think they should plan for it. Play the next two or three weeks and then evaluate. The most likely conclusion at that point will be to sell. But until then play the best team possible, not the team you want to develop.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

The thing about Johnson is that they don't really have a spot for him next year as of now unless someone gets injured or traded. If you assume Buchholz, Porcello, Rodriguez, and Miley are all in the rotation next year, that leaves one opening, and you'd expect them to get an upper-tier guy for that gig, especially since there should be a few of those available this offseason.

You should treat the #6 (and #7 and #8) starter as real spots in roster design. And since you can't sign a legit SP to be a #6 starter, having guys like Johnson around is a critical component of pitching depth.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

You should treat the #6 (and #7 and #8) starter as real spots in roster design. And since you can't sign a legit SP to be a #6 starter, having guys like Johnson around is a critical component of pitching depth.

 
Sure, I don't disagree with that. I don't think it's a problem if he's still in Pawtucket next year, and I don't think I was suggesting otherwise, just pointing out that his path to the majors isn't as clear-cut as some seem to think. Even in the role you describe, though, I'd think Kelly and Wright would be ahead of him on the depth chart at this moment.

 

[WenZink]

 
If the Sox play at 100 game pace the rest of the way, they'll wind up in the mid-80s. To match that, the Os only have to play around .500. To say nothing of the 3 other teams in the way.
 
Hoping for miracles is fine. PLANNING for them, especially when we're talking about the investment of millions, and potentially missing the opportunity to strengthen your team for the future, is ridiculous. Besides, if you're expecting a miracle, is it really that much less likely after we sell a guy or two?

 
I understand the math and all, but the fact remains is that if the team could just get hot for a couple of weeks (10 out of 12), they would have a high probabllity of being in the race.  4 games out with 60 left, for instance, is competitive.  Now I know that this team seems incapable of sustaining a hot streak for 2 weeks, but even truly crappy teams do that.  It's also unlikely, that this team could continue to play well, even after they got back into the race.  But my hope is that if they got close, they would finally get their heads out of thei butts.  Amidst all the lousy games, I see some real talent.  Not to mention, if they're closer by the trade deadline, they're a player for rentals.

 

[Drek717]

I don't see any trades coming for Vic and Napoli.  I would prefer to see both just released, maybe the club gets lucky and someone picks up their remaining salary.  That's about as good an outcome as I would expect.
 
I'd keep the bullpen unless someone is willing to go crazy, but otherwise Koji and Taz are the beginning of a solid 2016 'pen.
 
I would like to see the philosophy, as of today, to no longer waste ABs on guys who aren't performing and aren't part of the 2016 plan.  That means Vic, Napoli, Breslow, Masterson (should yesterday have been a mirage, which it probably was), and De Aza are shown the door.  Guys with potential to contribute in 2016, JBJ, Castillo, maybe Shaw, Cecchini, and Brentz, Edwin Escobar, Brian Johnson, etc. get time with the ML club this year.
 
See what this once allegedly "loaded" AAA roster actually has on it when facing ML competition.  Don't wait until September, get teases from guys like Cecchini and Brentz did last year, only to ship them back in AAA and watch them stumble leading to writing them off.  No one could play as badly as Mike Napoli has for nearly half a season's worth of ABs already, so you aren't making the team worse by replacing him with Cecchini or Shaw.  Stop being so afraid of perception as to render yourself helpless to fix a downward trend.

 

[opes]

Agree again.i don't think they should plan for it. Play the next two or three weeks and then evaluate. The most likely conclusion at that point will be to sell. But until then play the best team possible, not the team you want to develop.

 
There are 12 games before the AS break. Even if we go 8-4,  The Orioles, Rays and Yankees would all have to have an epic collapse.  This team is incapable of winning 4 games in a row even.  The most likely conclusion at this point is to sell. 

 

[Thelobsterroll]

 
There are 12 games before the AS break. Even if we go 8-4,  The Orioles, Rays and Yankees would all have to have an epic collapse.  This team is incapable of winning 4 games in a row even.  The most likely conclusion at this point is to sell. 

So where is the harm in seeing what happens? JBJ has a liie bit less time to prove himself? I am thinking two months is more then enough time to see what various rookies have and if they should be a factor in 2016.

 

[Drek717]

 
If the Sox play at 100 game pace the rest of the way, they'll wind up in the mid-80s. To match that, the Os only have to play around .500. To say nothing of the 3 other teams in the way.
 
Hoping for miracles is fine. PLANNING for them, especially when we're talking about the investment of millions, and potentially missing the opportunity to strengthen your team for the future, is ridiculous. Besides, if you're expecting a miracle, is it really that much less likely after we sell a guy or two?

100 win ball is a .617 pace.  I don't think it's so much that people expect/hope for the Sox to suddenly flip it around and play at a sustained .617 pace the rest of the year.  What people are hoping for is to see the club win 12 of 14 or 10 of 11, something like that, suddenly be at .500 and just a few games back of the division lead.  In fact, if they do it over the next upcoming stretch it would be largely against the division and would therefore drag much of the teams ahead of them back down to ~.500 clubs, making it a pretty neck and neck race.
 
Then they play .550 or better ball the rest of the way while everyone else plays <.550 ball.
 
To have that hope though you basically have to be convincing yourself that this club isn't a .442 outfit and that such a burst would be the bounce back from several months of under performance, getting them back closer to true talent level, and that they would then play at that true talent level for the rest of the season.  
 
Kind of falls apart though once you look at Baseball Prospectus' pythagorean standings however.  The Sox are technically 0.3 games better than where they should be by their pythag, and only a few games below their 2nd and 3rd order projections.  3rd order projection is kindest and they'd still be three games under .500.  The single worst pythagorean projection for the rest of the division is Tampa at .526 1st order, also the worst at 2nd and 3rd orders with .535 and .536 projections.
 
In short, the Sox are currently 10% worse by even the nicest projection methods than the next worst team in the division, the one they've just recently taken two of three from.  The other three clubs all are under performing in the win column more than the Red Sox are.
 
So yeah....

 

[Brianish]

 
I understand the math and all, but the fact remains is that if the team could just get hot for a couple of weeks (10 out of 12), they would have a high probabllity of being in the race.  4 games out with 60 left, for instance, is competitive.  Now I know that this team seems incapable of sustaining a hot streak for 2 weeks, but even truly crappy teams do that.  It's also unlikely, that this team could continue to play well, even after they got back into the race.  But my hope is that if they got close, they would finally get their heads out of thei butts.  Amidst all the lousy games, I see some real talent.  Not to mention, if they're closer by the trade deadline, they're a player for rentals.

 
This is super nice to say, but is it true? They would still need four other teams to play poorly enough that they sneak into the division lead, or more to sneak into the wildcard. 
 
And while it may be that crappy teams get hot for a couple of weeks, crappy teams also let those hot streaks blind them to their weaknesses and miss their chance to collect assets for the future. Then the hot streak ends, and they remain crappy teams. 

 

[Drek717]

So where is the harm in seeing what happens? JBJ has a liie bit less time to prove himself? I am thinking two months is more then enough time to see what various rookies have and if they should be a factor in 2016.

Because as we've seen with Bogaerts, Betts, and Swihart every little bit of time is valuable for player development.  If Bogaerts was hitting like he is now to start 2015 the club might actually be a game or two better in the standings.  If Swihart swung the bat he had in June from day one the same could also be true, as he likely would have taken more ABs from Leon as a result.
 
Two or three weeks of ML pitching might be the difference between JBJ, Castillo, etc. hitting well to start 2016 or the Sox going into another early hole and all of us constructing hypothetical "if they win X of the next Y we're right back in this thing!" dream scenarios.
 
Even more true for pitching if you ask me, where opportunities are much more discrete and limited.  Brian Johnson getting a dozen starts before the end of the season is much more useful than Justin Masterson getting 5 and Johnson getting 7.  Edwin Escobar and Matt Barnes are even better examples of that as for a reliever two or three weeks could be a quarter of his total innings workload if the chips fell right.
 
Plus, it isn't like we'd be risking a performance drop by letting any of these guys go.  Napoli is horrible.  Vic isn't staying healthy as it is and just breaks up any chance of consistent playing time each instance in he comes off the DL.  De Aza was a stupid trade in the first place.  Masterson isn't showing anything that would make you want him back in 2016, so stop wasting Brian Johnson's development opportunities on him.
 
I'd say shop them all if there was a chance to get anything back, but that's pretty unlikely so I don't even see the point in wasting the time.  Just cutting them gives the greatest chance of someone else taking on the money, the only real shot at salvaging something form them.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Well - if by "packing it in" you mean playing Bradley everyday then I'm all for it. I really find it difficult to believe that De Aza is a better player right now. JBJ's struggles in 2014 are rather irrelevant at this stage. He was mashing in Pawtucket and seems to have cured most of the ills that were plaguing him last year (K rate being the largest culprit). Let him play.
 
(Its probably moot anyways - Vic will be back in a week or so and immediately will be re-installed - for better or worse - in RF)
 
 
 

 

[chrisfont9]

There's a psychological factor that is hard to discuss in an authoritative way but perhaps should not be overlooked. The team has lacked urgency and seemed leaderless to some degree, though I'm sure at least Pedroia gives it a shot. Would the team culture remain stuck in the mud if they pack it in? Would there be some real benefit to the culture of the team if they fight all the way to the end and maybe have a respectable (if not playoff-bound) second half? The Sox were major unloaders last year and look where we are now. I'd be cautious about unloading too much, unless the return is too good to pass up. It's not like the team has big decisions to make about important pieces, like they did with Lester and Lackey last year.

 

[Super Nomario]

Because as we've seen with Bogaerts, Betts, and Swihart every little bit of time is valuable for player development.  If Bogaerts was hitting like he is now to start 2015 the club might actually be a game or two better in the standings.  If Swihart swung the bat he had in June from day one the same could also be true, as he likely would have taken more ABs from Leon as a result.
 
Two or three weeks of ML pitching might be the difference between JBJ, Castillo, etc. hitting well to start 2016 or the Sox going into another early hole and all of us constructing hypothetical "if they win X of the next Y we're right back in this thing!" dream scenarios.
 
Even more true for pitching if you ask me, where opportunities are much more discrete and limited.  Brian Johnson getting a dozen starts before the end of the season is much more useful than Justin Masterson getting 5 and Johnson getting 7.  Edwin Escobar and Matt Barnes are even better examples of that as for a reliever two or three weeks could be a quarter of his total innings workload if the chips fell right.

You seem to be operating under the assumption that MLB playing time has a far greater impact on player development than AAA time. If that's true, why would the Red Sox (or any team) bother sending their prospects to AAA at all? Do you have any evidence for your position?

 

[curly2]

I think it's highly unlikely the Sox make a run, but I wouldn't pull the plug yet. The next four days are a good litmus test. Win 3 of 4 against a hot Blue Jays team that plays .600 ball at home and maybe you buy some more time to make a run.
 
And for anyone advocating Brentz, he just had thumb surgery and is most likely done for the season.

 

[8slim]

I'm not clear on what magical returns "packing it in" will achieve.  Presumably the guys we may want to jettison don't have a ton of trade value, and  we're talking about replacing maybe one offensive starter in the name of development?  That's worth giving up on a season, for the 3rd time in 4 years?  
 
My concern is that in the name of "doing something" Cherington would trade off someone with talent that could help us next season, as others have suggested.  And honestly, I don't have a tremendous amount of faith in him at the moment, given how last year's sell-off panned out.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Things can change pretty quickly, although I'll concede things are a lot harder when there are four teams ahead of you.
 

 
Despite having a losing record, the Sox were still very much "in the mix" as of June 8th.
 
NY 32-25 (-)
TB 31-27 (1.5)
TOR 29-30 (4)
BOS 27-31 (5.5)
BAL 26-30 (5.5)
 
Then a complete shit show that lasted until June 20th separated us from the rest of the division, leaving us ten games out of first, nine games out of second, and six games out of fourth.
 
During that time:
 
TB 9-3
BAL 9-3 (on a 15-4 run)
TOR 9-3
NY 6-6
BOS 3-9
 
And it's really that putrid 12 game stretch that has broken our season and made the rest of the AL East. If the exact opposite was to happen starting today, the standings would shake out to:
 
NY 47-41
BAL 44-43 (2.5)
TB 45-44 (2.5)
TOR 44-45 (3.5)
BOS 43-46 (4.5)
 
If that bad stretch was replaced by the exact opposite...
 
NY 41-35
BOS 40-37 (1.5)
BAL 35-40 (5.5)
TB 36-41 (5.5)
TOR 35-42 (6.5)
 
Not sure if I should be optimistic about how quickly things could change, or pessimistic that even replacing our worst run with it's reciprocal would still only leave us at 40-37.
 
Nevertheless, any chance at making a run this season starts with beating up on the rest of the AL East. This four game series versus Toronto would be a great start.

 

[Drek717]

You seem to be operating under the assumption that MLB playing time has a far greater impact on player development than AAA time. If that's true, why would the Red Sox (or any team) bother sending their prospects to AAA at all? Do you have any evidence for your position?

I'm operating under the assumption that when it comes to 24+ year old prospects in the middle of a lost season it's time to shit or get off the pot.
 
A lot of very good players had down seasons/poor tenures in AAA only to turn it on in the majors, for a variety of factors.  Josh Reddick for example has a ML line less than .010 points behind his AAA OPS in 740 ABs at that level.  Brandon Moss saw his OPS jump nearly .050 points in the move from AA to AAA (over 1000 ABs in AA before then) and his 2012 OPS was about .100 points over his career AAA numbers.  Hanley Ramirez was a career .752 OPS hitter with over 600 ABs in AA (no AAA time) and has since been an .870 OPS MLer.  These are just old Sox farmhands I can recall quickly mind you.
 
Bryce Brentz is 26 years old, is either going to have his breakout at the ML level, be the next Johnny Gomes, or is going to wash out in the very near future.  So why not give him some ABs and see what we have?
 
Same for Cecchini.  He looked like a corpse for the first 2/3rds of last year in AAA.  Put it together for a little while just before the September call-ups, then in a small sample looked better and put up better numbers than he had in AAA.  Same scenario is likely playing out again this year.  Lets maybe prevent that sample from being so small this time and find out if he's worth having around.
 
None of these guys are going to revive their trade value in AAA.  Cecchini is in year two at AAA and still struggling to make consistent contact, which was supposed to be his calling card.  Likely because he's fucking with his swing trying to gain power because he thinks that's what is needed to make the bigs.  He also doesn't look capable of sticking at 3B as a full time ML regular.
 
Shaw has actually got the bat going a bit this year in AAA now after a very slow start but he's always just rode the pine when called up.  Again, like Cecchini the word is he lacks power for the position, but then that was also the knock on Youkilis and he developed power in the majors.  Neither of these guys are close to Youk on contact or OBP, but then we don't need them to post a .900 OPS to be an upgrade either.  .800 out of 1B would look like mana from heaven right about now.
 
So dump Napoli and Vic, platoon Brentz with Hanley in LF and spell Ortiz against LHP (who still isn't hitting LHP, he just hasn't faced as many LHP of late), Cecchini and Shaw can duke it out for 1B playing time with Holt slotting in there over them when no one else needs a day off.  See if these guys are even worth 40 man roster spots and get done with it instead of hanging onto everyone well into post-prospect status and never giving them a real taste of the majors.  Especially in years when we already suck.