Should the Red Sox go all out to sign Yasmani Tomas?

[Tyrone Biggums]

Plympton has agreed to let the Ellsbury issue go and so should you Why even respond to a post from June? Anyway the Red Sox have since signed Castillo and Betts has emerged so letting Ellsbury go will be less of an issue in the future.

Ellsbury isn't Johnny Damon. That contract is going to look awful in 2 years. Letting him go was absolutely the correct move. All things being equal I would take Castillo/Betts over him on the roster. As for Tomas the Sox need to make him an offer. He's 24 and projects as a power bat. Those players are gold in the post steroid era. I wouldn't pay him more than Castillo, but a 24 year old free agent with power would go for a pretty penny on the open market.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

FWIW, the plan is Craig in LF and Cespedes in RF

If Betts is out of the lineup over Craig I may become a full time Mets fan.

What has Craig shown to even supplant Nava much less Betts? (I'm assuming you have Castillo in CF in this scenario)

 

[Plympton91]

Absent his contract how is Craig anything other than an NRI on a minor league deal at this point? I hope that's the way the Red Sox evaluate him next spring. If he doesn't perform, he should start the season as a 25th man at best.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

Ellsbury isn't Johnny Damon. That contract is going to look awful in 2 years. Letting him go was absolutely the correct move. All things being equal I would take Castillo/Betts over him on the roster. As for Tomas the Sox need to make him an offer. He's 24 and projects as a power bat. Those players are gold in the post steroid era. I wouldn't pay him more than Castillo, but a 24 year old free agent with power would go for a pretty penny on the open market.

I was agreeing with you at least in regards to Ellsbury.

 

[syoo8]

FWIW, the plan is Craig in LF and Cespedes in RF

 
Has that changed?  Last I heard it was the opposite.

 

[Harry Hooper]

FWIW, the plan is Craig in LF and Cespedes in RF

 
That's what Ben said after the trade. With Cespedes now having demonstrated his fielding "prowess" I cannot believe it is any longer the plan.  

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Let's not forget that Big Papi is 39 in 2 months and can fall off at any time at that age.  I still love his bat speed and have high hopes, but you never know.  Yoenis is only here for 1 more year.  
 
OF 2015:  Betts, Cespedes, Rusney Castillo.  4th OF - Victorino 5th OF - Nava.  Craig is more of a 1b/DH/OF now.  If Victorino or Craig looks good in ST, then you can trade one or both of them.  Maybe even trade Cespedes.  Vic/Betts/Castillo would be some serious D in the OF.  
 
OF 2016: Betts, Castillo, Yasmani Tomas.  Tomas will most likely get a 5 or 6 year contract (maybe longer).  Vic will be gone, Cespedes will be gone.  Napoli will be gone.  Yasmani is a big boy at 6'4" 240 so maybe he winds up at 1b or DH (I have no idea if he's any good in the OF).  Watch the video from the 1st post in this thread - he's huge, so he may be better suited for 1b or DH.  He has kind of a Jose Abreu body type.  If the Sox think he can rake, sign him.  There are always spots for great players.  Papi will be 40 in 2016.  
 
If the Sox brass deem him a legit hitter, then sign him, it's only money with no loss of prospects or draft picks.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

With Tomas's size, isn't he a pretty good bet to end up at 1b anyway? Napoli is only signed for 1 more year and as has been noted Papi is pretty old.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Let's not forget that Big Papi is 39 in 2 months and can fall off at any time at that age.  I still love his bat speed and have high hopes, but you never know.  Yoenis is only here for 1 more year.  
 
OF 2015:  Betts, Cespedes, Rusney Castillo.  4th OF - Victorino 5th OF - Nava.  Craig is more of a 1b/DH/OF now.  If Victorino or Craig looks good in ST, then you can trade one or both of them.  Maybe even trade Cespedes.  Vic/Betts/Castillo would be some serious D in the OF.  
 
OF 2016: Betts, Castillo, Yasmani Tomas.  Tomas will most likely get a 5 or 6 year contract (maybe longer).  Vic will be gone, Cespedes will be gone.  Napoli will be gone.  Yasmani is a big boy at 6'4" 240 so maybe he winds up at 1b or DH (I have no idea if he's any good in the OF).  Watch the video from the 1st post in this thread - he's huge, so he may be better suited for 1b or DH.  He has kind of a Jose Abreu body type.  If the Sox think he can rake, sign him.  There are always spots for great players.  Papi will be 40 in 2016.  
 
If the Sox brass deem him a legit hitter, then sign him, it's only money with no loss of prospects or draft picks.

I honestly believe Cespedes signs a 4 year deal this winter. I know some people here get on him about his fielding but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. He's played his career at the Oakland Graveyard and posted some decent results in the field. He isn't Jackie Bradley out there but Sox fans shouldn't have expected that either. He also has an absolute cannon for an arm. Tomas certainly will not play right field in Fenway but as a few posters have mentioned he could almost certainly become the 1st baseman in waiting. Unless of course you are like the posters on Soxprospects that believe Napoli should be cast off in favor of future Hall of Famer, Travis Shaw.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I agree that they will probably extend Cespedes and that there (hopefully) won't be room in the outfield for Tomas any time soon. That said, I haven't seen anything to counter earlier reports that Tomas will likely need to start out in the minor leagues so I don't see the problem. If they like his bat, spend the money and start him off in Portland or Pawtucket and let him force his way on to the 25 man roster. If he does, it's a good problem to have.
 
If he's really going to cost 100 million, I'm guessing the Sox will back out or make their best offer and let other teams blow past them. 72 million for a 27 year old with a skill set that includes both power (moderate) and speed, who can play a passable center field and back up at least three other positions (LF, RF, 2B) was understandable. For a 23 year old whose only undeniable tool is power with big question marks about the rest? I'm hoping his contract ends up somewhere shy of Castillo. If he signs for more, someone got silly.
 
Of course, it looks like the source for this rumor might be Tomas' agent.
 
 
 

How much will he get paid? His agent, Jay Alou, is confident Tomas will receive a record amount, per Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald. The record amount Alou is talking about would exceed Rusney Castillo's $72.5 million deal. Alou, who also represents Jose Bautista andErvin Santana, believes that Tomás's power and youth will net the biggest contract ever landed for a Cuban defector.

 
http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2014/9/12/6138183/introducing-yasmani-tomas-the-next-big-cuban-import
 
So take with liberal amounts of salt.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

Off topic. Is Jay Alou related to Moises, Felipe, et al?

 

[someoneanywhere]

FWIW, I don't think any of us should be talking about "a" plan or "the" plan. Better to say, I think, there is a framework of need -- offense, frontline pitching -- and multiple "plans" or fluid options to get there, with no one knowing which of those options might be the most feasible and practical. For instance, I can see a scenario in which one or maybe two of Cespedes, Craig, or Napoli is not around in 2015. They've also said they will try to sign one of the big FA pitchers but not likely not two: which strongly suggests at least one major trade to acquire another arm. I think at least one mores not trade beyond that, and quite possibly two, are also conceivable.

All of which is to say you acquire talent whenever and wherever you can, presuming the cost is within your framework, and figure out how to deploy it later.

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

I believe that Tomas and Castillo is an either/or decision; do you want a power-hitting corner outfielder or a Johnny Damon-type centerfielder? I would have preferred Tomas as either Betts or Castillo, who are capable of playing center, will probably end up in LF. If the Sox were to now sign Tomas there would not be a position for Betts as I do not believe he has the arm for the left side of the infield.

As for Craig, even when he was hitting well he was only generating a 2-something WAR. Unless Napoli is traded there really isn't a role for him with Bostion. IMO, eating Craig's contract was part of the cost of obtaining Kelly.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Can you expand on the "either/or" bit of your post? All indications so far are that Tomas needs significant time in the minors before he would be likely to crack the 25 man roster. After 2015, Napoli is gone, so if you believe Craig was sunk cost, that means they'll need a first baseman. A 6'4 240 pound power hitter seems like a good player to fill that hole with. They also have Cespedes off the books then if they can't work out an extension or decide they don't want to.
 
I really don't see any reason not to sign Tomas short of his demands getting too high to justify the risk. There really isn't a roster crunch as far as he's concerned unless you assume all of the reports are wrong and that he'll need to be on the major league roster right off the bat. Even if he lights up spring training to the degree that you feel forced into that, it's a good problem to have and you work it out. Of course, the chances of him being ready for major league action in April of 2015 and the Red Sox having enough question marks answered positively to create a situation where Tomas can't get into the lineup are going to be pretty low.
 
If they like his bat, they will make a competitive offer. If they find them selves with a roster crunch in April or June or August or whenever, they'll be happy he's worked out so well and find a way to make it work. Collect talent when and where you can. If you don't have to expend talent to acquire it, all the better.

 

[MakMan44]

I believe that Tomas and Castillo is an either/or decision; do you want a power-hitting corner outfielder or a Johnny Damon-type centerfielder? I would have preferred Tomas as either Betts or Castillo, who are capable of playing center, will probably end up in LF. If the Sox were to now sign Tomas there would not be a position for Betts as I do not believe he has the arm for the left side of the infield.

As for Craig, even when he was hitting well he was only generating a 2-something WAR. Unless Napoli is traded there really isn't a role for him with Bostion. IMO, eating Craig's contract was part of the cost of obtaining Kelly.

As Snod pointed out, Tomas probably starts out in AA or AAA. He's only 23, there's no real reason to rush him to the bigs if they think he's not ready. It's easy to build a case that they should sign Tomas even with Castillo in the fold. 
 
Also, just dismissing 2 WAR out of hand in nuts IMO but whatever, people have different opinions. That being said, can people please stop causally tossing out Craig's contract was the price for Joe Kelly? It's simply not true and it's getting ridiculous that the opinion is spreading.

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

The either/or part of my post is that the Cuban players have been viewed as being major league ready and not as prospects. If Tomas signs for a similar contract as Castillo he would be a pretty expensive minor league player.

Once the Cardinals went with Adams they moved Craig so I don't see how it would be any different with Boston. As mentioned in an above post, which outfielder would they sit to get Craig in the line-up?

 

[MakMan44]

The either/or part of my post is that the Cuban players have been viewed as being major league ready and not as prospects. If Tomas signs for a similar contract as Castillo he would be a pretty expensive minor league player.

Once the Cardinals went with Adams they moved Craig so I don't see how it would be any different with Boston. As mentioned in an above post, which outfielder would they sit to get Craig in the line-up?

For the former, that is true, but it's not incredibly far off from Puig and college players who would sign MLB deals to go play in the minors. 
 
As for the latter, if it's directed at me, it doesn't make what you said true. Ben is acquiring all these assets, and figuring out where to piece them together later.  

 

[Lars The Wanderer]

Off topic. Is Jay Alou related to Moises, Felipe, et al?

 
Yes. He is the son of Jesus Alou.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

The either/or part of my post is that the Cuban players have been viewed as being major league ready and not as prospects. If Tomas signs for a similar contract as Castillo he would be a pretty expensive minor league player.

 
Care to share a link where there is speculation he won't be in the minors? The link I posted above states he'll need time in the minors. As does every article and scouting report I've read so far. You may think spending big money on him will mean he has to play in the majors from the start, but that doesn't make it true. He's 23, very raw, and in need of development. Signing him to a big contract and then insisting the money means he has to be on the 25 man roster is a good way to "Wily Mo Pena" him. Unless you can provide something other than your opinion to back up the belief that he'll jump right to the majors, your concerns about finding a roster spot for him aren't really relevant.
 

Once the Cardinals went with Adams they moved Craig so I don't see how it would be any different with Boston. As mentioned in an above post, which outfielder would they sit to get Craig in the line-up?

 
There are a number of ways to work Craig into the team's long term future if he happens to be healthy enough to deserve playing time and we are fortunate enough to see Victorino playing every day as well. Having him fill the Mike Carp role from the 2013 team for a season with the promise of making him the full time 1st baseman or DH in 2016 depending on what happens with Napoli and Papi is probably the best path for a team trying to contend. Trading one of Betts or Bradley over the winter is another.
 
I mean, we're looking at an outfield of Craig ,Nava, Betts, Bradley, Cespedes, Castillo and Victorino with Betts capable of playing in the infield to get at bats, Victorino probably a poor bet to play in more than 80 games, Bradley likely looking at another run in Pawtucket to start the 2015 season, and Craig not a good bet to be healthy enough to man left field, never mind right. If Craig doesn't fit on the team, it's more likely because he isn't healthy than they don't have a spot for him. If he can hit, they'll work it out both in the short term and the long. In the mean time, none of it is really related to Tomas... especially as it pertains to the 2015 season. By 2016 they could actually be looking at not having enough outfielders again as only Castillo, Betts, Bradley and Nava are under control that long and I don't think many here would be happy with that and a 5th outfielder type to fill out the roster.

 

[gryoung]

As Snod pointed out, Tomas probably starts out in AA or AAA. He's only 23, there's no real reason to rush him to the bigs if they think he's not ready. It's easy to build a case that they should sign Tomas even with Castillo in the fold. 
 
Also, just dismissing 2 WAR out of hand in nuts IMO but whatever, people have different opinions. That being said, can people please stop causally tossing out Craig's contract was the price for Joe Kelly? It's simply not true and it's getting ridiculous that the opinion is spreading.

 
"...simply not true."    I love these statements that imply the author has some indisputable evidence to the topic at hand.  In this case, unless the author was actually in the trade negotiations with Cherington, or has access to him and a relationship such that Cherington confides in him ..........it certainly could be true.

 

[MakMan44]

 
"...simply not true."    I love these statements that imply the author has some indisputable evidence to the topic at hand.  In this case, unless the author was actually in the trade negotiations with Cherington, or has access to him and a relationship such that Cherington confides in him ..........it certainly could be true.

There's a lot more empirical evidence on my side, while's almost none on the latter.
 
For one, we have a quote from Ben himself saying that they had prospect packages on the table for their assets at the trade deadline but decided they wanted ML players instead. Now, Lackey isn't mentioned by name but it's not much of a leap to assume that he's included there. 
 
For another, people are making the assumption that Joe Kelly is SO good and Lackey's trade value so little Kelly could only have been had by taking on Craig. Why is that not the silly suggestion? 
 
They're also suggesting Ben is a bad GM. Taking on 30 million dollars of dead weight (which is what you're suggesting) isn't something good GMs do, even if he thought Kelly provides enough excess value to cover Craig's contract. 
 
There's more, this is just off the top of my head. 

 

[Joe Shlabotnick]

Off topic. Is Jay Alou related to Moises, Felipe, et al?

I was going to say he is related to Bob Alou.

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

Yeah, if they can get Tomas for a more modest contract having him play at AAA for a period of time is acceptable. One of Snod's linked articles states that Tomas is almost major league ready so we don't know if that means it will take 1-2 months or most of 2015. And although the issue has been beaten to death we still don't have a definitive answer as to whether Betts can play on the left side of the infield.

My opinion is that Betts will be a premier lead-off hitter as soon as next year and should play everyday. Cespedes is an everday player and so is Castillo if he is as good as adevertised.

A Cespedes, Betts and Castillo out field is potentially a good one so I don't see where Craig, Tomas, Victorino and Nava fit in. Unless one believes there is compensating value from resting players 1-2 days a week, there is no reason to replace a starter with an inferior player.

 

[ivanvamp]

Should the Red Sox strongly consider trading JBJ?  Or is there likely no market for him?  Despite his horrific offensive game, he was still a plus-WAR player, thanks to his base running and off-the-charts great defense.  He probably has a role on a championship team as a 5th OF/late-game baserunner/defensive replacement at all 3 OF positions.
 
If the Sox have an abundance of OFs, moving him may make sense, if there's a market.

 

[snowmanny]

Should the Red Sox strongly consider trading JBJ?  Or is there likely no market for him?  
Despite his horrific offensive game, he was still a plus-WAR player, thanks to his base running and off-the-charts great defense.  He probably has a role on a championship team as a 5th OF/late-game baserunner/defensive replacement at all 3 OF positions.
 
If the Sox have an abundance of OFs, moving him may make sense, if there's a market.

They may have an abundance of ML outfielders.
It will be easier to know that once Castillo faces ML pitching and once there is clarity as to whether Victorino can return and Craig can hit.

It's an interesting situation. They plausibly have seven decent outfielders (Cespedes, Castillo, Betts, Craig, Nava, Bradley, Victorino) but the 21 yo with two months experience is probably the second-surest thing on that list.

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

Should the Red Sox strongly consider trading JBJ?  Or is there likely no market for him?  Despite his horrific offensive game, he was still a plus-WAR player, thanks to his base running and off-the-charts great defense.  He probably has a role on a championship team as a 5th OF/late-game baserunner/defensive replacement at all 3 OF positions.
 
If the Sox have an abundance of OFs, moving him may make sense, if there's a market.

There are still some teams that would share the hope that he could someday hit well enough to be an upper-tier CFer so there is still some value. Even if he rakes at Pawtucket next year there will still be concerns about the adjustment to the ML so I don't believe it will benifit the Sox to keep him another year. Trading him this winter makes the most sense to me. It would also be fair to JBJ to trade him to a team that would give him the chance of playing at ML level in 2015.

 

[TomRicardo]

He's not a good enough base stealer to stick around as just a defensive backup, IMO. How many teams waste a roster spot on a player like that? I suspect he has relatively little trade value at this point, and that team probably keeps him in AAA as deep depth last year. I could see him getting one last shot if injuries hit next year's club, but JBJ and WMB may have run out of chances. His 1-19 since he came back hasn't helped.

 
What?  Why would a National League Team not want an exceptional defensive bench OF?  His base running is good enough to put him on a bench. 
 
That said it would be extremely foolish to trade him now.  You place him in AAA next year and have him work on his swing.  There is no reason to get rid of him.  He is not in the same place Middlebrooks.  I am not sure Middlebrooks is a MLB ball player.  JBJ at worst is a National League end of the bench defensive sub.

 

[OptimusPapi]

 
What?  Why would a National League Team not want an exceptional defensive bench OF?  His base running is good enough to put him on a bench. 
 
That said it would be extremely foolish to trade him now.  You place him in AAA next year and have him work on his swing.  There is no reason to get rid of him.  He is not in the same place Middlebrooks.  I am not sure Middlebrooks is a MLB ball player.  JBJ at worst is a National League end of the bench defensive sub.

Second this. My hope is JBJ spends all of 2015 in the minors with perhaps a cup of coffee in September. Then the Sox reevaluate. JBJ has only one season in the Majors that is way too soon to give up on a player who is so defensively gifted.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

JBJ would likely bring back, at most, a David Freese type, as Bourjos did.  IMO, that's not worth dealing him right now.  If I'm wrong, and JBJ + Barnes can get you Hamels, then ok.  I'm not holding my breath.
 
I'd be in on Tomas, to a point (that point being somewhere in the Castillo neighborhood), unless the team can extend Cespedes on a reasonable deal.  If they were to extend Cespedes, I'd save the extra $ for pitching, because if they want to contend in 2015, they need pitching.  A top starter, a mid-level veteran, a decent bullpen arm or two.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Trading JBJ this winter would, IMO, be pretty stupid. His value is at its nadir right now. Let him play in Pawtucket next year and re-establish some of his value. If he gets straightened out .. which is certainly not far fetched as he hit very well there last year - then you can bring him up for round two or trade him at the deadline next year.

If he remains screwed up then his upside is Bourjos .. Which is not worthless.

 

[TomRicardo]

Well, it's an extremely limited role. He just can't hit, and has no significant platoon split. He is a decent enough baserunner, but not a guy that's going to come in and steal a base that often. So, his role is basically just as a defensive OF. It's a relatively inefficient use of a roster spot.

I guess he could be a Peter Bourjos, Chris Heisey, type. But, it requires a team with a lousy defensive CF to start with. Agree that trading him now doesn't make much sense.

 
He is a much better defender than those guys.  In a league where Will Venable has a roster spot there is always a place for JBJ

 

[arzjake]

Cespedes is a known commodity at the moment. 250 to 260, 30 HR's could be attainable next season in Boston. You know what you got. You don't know what you got in Castillo at the moment. To bring in another Cuban player with no track record so to speak is a huge gamble when your already on the hook for rusney.
 
One shot in the dark is enough.
 
Save the coin for a 3B and lets not forget SP. Starting with a possible deal for Hamels and who knows maybe a second tier free agent starter..

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Should the Red Sox strongly consider trading JBJ?  Or is there likely no market for him?  Despite his horrific offensive game, he was still a plus-WAR player, thanks to his base running and off-the-charts great defense.  He probably has a role on a championship team as a 5th OF/late-game baserunner/defensive replacement at all 3 OF positions.
 
If the Sox have an abundance of OFs, moving him may make sense, if there's a market.

 
Single season WAR doesn't really tell us much, especially in the case of a WAR that is so heavily dependent on the defensive component. I'm not sure what "plus-WAR" is supposed to mean here, but 0 WAR is replacement level, so a positive-WAR player could be just a fraction better than replacement level. 2.0 WAR is league average, which is definitely valuable. Anything higher than that is obviously where you want your players to be and it's certainly possible JBJ is a better than 2.0 WAR player with his defense and base running alone, but we can't really support that claim yet and this year's WAR just isn't stable enough to act as reliable evidence here.
 
He's an otherworldly defender, so if there was a player in the majors who I'd be willing to bet on the defensive components of WAR being close to accurate on, it's going to be him, but I just don't think you can really support the claim that he's a better than average player overall yet. We need more data.
 

Cespedes is a known commodity at the moment. 250 to 260, 30 HR's could be attainable next season in Boston. You know what you got. You don't know what you got in Castillo at the moment. To bring in another Cuban player with no track record so to speak is a huge gamble when your already on the hook for rusney.
 
One shot in the dark is enough.
 
Save the coin for a 3B and lets not forget SP. Starting with a possible deal for Hamels and who knows maybe a second tier free agent starter..

 
It's almost like you didn't bother to read the thread where it's been pointed out several times that Tomas will very likely start in the minors and may need up to a full season there. The Red Sox would not be signing him to start him in left field in 2015.
 
Additionally, the third base market isn't pretty. Where would you like to spend that money? The only attractive left side of the infield player available is Hanley Ramirez and he's going to command a large enough commitment that I have a hard time seeing the Sox being serious bidders for him. So where do you want to spend that money?

 

[Rasputin]

If he's going to be spending a year at AAA, it makes all the sense in the world to sign Thomas for the obvious reason that of the three guys we have to play first and DH, one is ancient, one has an explosive hip, and one has been terrible for a year.
 
I don't get why trading Bradley is supposed to make any sense whatsoever. As someone pointed out, he's at the nadir of his value. A good year at AAA might restore his value. If it doesn't, well the Sox need a fifth outfielder just like everyone else in baseball. Maybe more so if the fourth outfielder is Brock Holt. If he's never anything more than a defensive replacement and pinch runner for slow people, that's some value and the Sox need that guy just like other teams do.

 

[nvalvo]

Additionally, the third base market isn't pretty. Where would you like to spend that money? The only attractive left side of the infield player available is Hanley Ramirez and he's going to command a large enough commitment that I have a hard time seeing the Sox being serious bidders for him. So where do you want to spend that money?

 
How about Sandoval or Headley? I'm not wild about signing either, but they are at least viable options. 
 

Venable sucks this year, but he's a career 106 OPS+ guy, who has stolen 117 career bases at an 80% success rate. JBJ's got a 60 OPS+. It's hard to use a roster spot on a CF who you never, ever want to bat.

 
Bradley sucks this year, but he's a career .400 OBP guy in the minors. Venable also sucks this year, but he's seven years older, a worse defender, and 8 times as expensive — soon to be more. Bradley has years of control left, and didn't even burn an option this year, if I'm not mistaken.
 
The Padres would be delighted to trade Venable for Bradley straight up; and I highly doubt the Sox would do that deal. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Venable sucks this year, but he's a career 106 OPS+ guy, who has stolen 117 career bases at an 80% success rate. JBJ's got a 60 OPS+. It's hard to use a roster spot on a CF who you never, ever want to bat.

This assumes that a 60 OPs+ is an accurate measure of JBJ's hitting skill. Given that his minor league numbers project him to be a much better hitter than that then there's still a pretty good chance that he could and should improve. He's been completely messed up for months now. He just needs to chill for the winter and come back next year with a clean slate and rebuild his offense at Pawtucket.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

It may very well be true that Tomas will need AAA seasoning. But more than likely one of the top suitors will most certainly offer a major league deal and an opportunity to play in the majors right away - which may be the determining factor in where he ends up.

That being said, if the FO thinks he's worth the dollars then an obvious lack of a 2015 roster spot should not factor into the decision. They obviously tried to get Abreu despite having just signed Napoli. I think the should - and will - make a competitive offer.

As mentioned up-thread there is a glut of OFs - but only Cespedes and Betts appear to be sure things - and we have seen that rookies can really struggle.

I would not make ANY winter plans assuming Craig or Victorino are starting OFs.

 

[TomRicardo]

Venable sucks this year, but he's a career 106 OPS+ guy, who has stolen 117 career bases at an 80% success rate. JBJ's got a 60 OPS+. It's hard to use a roster spot on a CF who you never, ever want to bat.

 
Venable isn't even close to the same fielder Bradley is.  Also JBJ is a much better baserunner this year and presumably going forward.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
How about Sandoval or Headley? I'm not wild about signing either, but they are at least viable options. 

 
If either one is expensive enough to mean we would have to choose between them or Tomas, I want no part of them. I don't buy into Tomas getting 100 million, but I could see him in Puig's range or a little higher. 45-55 million for Headley is pushing it. It's far more than I would want to see them spend on Sandoval. Headley is mostly a health concern and Sandoval's body just scares me. Both derive a significant amount of their value from defense which is especially true of Headley this year. The chances that he's worth 1.65 WAR defensively this year are pretty low. He was worth 7.0 and 7.3 runs defensively in the previous two years according to UZR giving him a total of 30.8 or 10.27 per year. If we regress that by 50% he's worth ~.5 WAR a year with his glove. Offensively, over the same span, he's been worth 40.2 which is 13.4 per year or 1.34 WAR. So we're looking at a slightly below average player if we regress his defense. And most of that estimate is tied up in the 36.6 wRAA he accumulated in 2012.
 
I just don't see him as a good use of that kind of money.

 

[reggiecleveland]

 but only Cespedes and Betts appear to be sure things - possibly good enough to start for a good team.

 

[arzjake]

It's almost like you didn't bother to read the thread where it's been pointed out several times that Tomas will very likely start in the minors and may need up to a full season there. The Red Sox would not be signing him to start him in left field in 2015.
 
 
Its not about starting in the minors, its about HOW MUCH MONEY your going spend on a player who you know nothing about except for a few glimpses of International ball. YOU just signed a player like that in Castillo. Operating within a budget, it doesn't make sense to gamble twice. If you take the money you might spend on another Cuban player, why not allocate it to Cespedes who is a proven hitter thus far especially when you have another season to evaluate..
 
Your gambling on one Cuban Player at the moment, you don't need two. Not to mention your going to pick in the Top 10, maybe top 5 of next yrs June draft. Your going to get a high upside player there more so than taking the gamble on another player with limited exposure to good competition. I understand in the June draft IF you select a H.S Player, they do not have any experience as well, but the College players do and maybe that is where you look for far less money which is now slotted..
 
We threw Money at problems or players a few years ago in Crawford Beckett AGone, how did that turn out.. One gamble is enough for the moment

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

First, why is it either Tomas or Cespedes? They have a ton of money to spend. Second, Castillo's AAV is a little over 10 million a year. It's not that big of a risk. If you can get Tomas for a similar AAV I would argue it's much better to spread that risk out at moderate dollars. I mean, I'd rather sign Tomas and Castillo for a combined 20-22 million AAV than Hanley Ramirez at 24 AAV for his age 31-37 seasons. Third, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett are irrelevant. All of them got paid a higher AAV than either Castillo or Tomas will get, and two of them may have a higher AAV than Castillo and Tomas combined. In a pre-TV deals environment, no less, in the previous CBA. They just aren't comparable given the differences in AAV even before you adjust for inflation and how the market has changed.
 
As for the draft, we'll be lucky if whomever the team drafts is a regular by the time we are in the second half of either Castillo's deal or whatever deal Tomas signs. The draft pick has absolutely nothing to do with this.
 
We, as fans, need to get past our old conceptualizations of how money is spent in baseball. It's changing rapidly from season to season. The Red Sox are looking for ways to spend their money away from the traditional free agent market because the talent pool there has thinned out significantly and the production curve has shifted toward younger players as we've seen the game move away from greenies and the penalties for PED use have gotten stiffer. Your position may have made sense 5 years ago. It is outdated thinking today.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

This assumes that a 60 OPs+ is an accurate measure of JBJ's hitting skill. Given that his minor league numbers project him to be a much better hitter than that then there's still a pretty good chance that he could and should improve. He's been completely messed up for months now. He just needs to chill for the winter and come back next year with a clean slate and rebuild his offense at Pawtucket.

 
My heart agrees with this, and I do think it's probably a bit too soon to foreclose on JBJ. But the woods are not exactly full of historical comps for rookies who hit this badly, in this large an opportunity, at this advanced an age, and went on to have careers of any note. A Play Index season search with the criteria rookie status, age 24, at least 350 PA, OPS+ below 70, since 1946, returns 33 players. Of these, only six went to have career rWAR in double figures:
 
34.8 Brady Anderson
22.6 Larry Bowa
18.1 Rich Aurilia
15.5 Glenn Beckert
13.4 Craig Reynolds
11.2 Gary DiSarcina
 
So history says he's got about a 1 in 10 chance of being a good player with a fairly long career, and about a one in 6 chance of being a player with anything even resembling a substantial career. Those are good enough odds to give him a little more time to see what he can figure out. But they are bad enough odds to make the Rusney signing a little easier to understand.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

We, as fans, need to get past our old conceptualizations of how money is spent in baseball. It's changing rapidly from season to season. The Red Sox are looking for ways to spend their money away from the traditional free agent market because the talent pool there has thinned out significantly and the production curve has shifted toward younger players as we've seen the game move away from greenies and the penalties for PED use have gotten stiffer. Your position may have made sense 5 years ago. It is outdated thinking today.

I definitely agree with this paragraph, but I also think it's the reason Tomas is going to get significantly more than Castillo. It's the same argument Theo used for Dice K - how often do teams get a chance to acquire a 23 year old player who is almost major league ready with 70 power? I mean if Tomas was eligible for the draft, where would he be taken?

Because I think a lot of clubs will be coveting this chance to acquire young power, I think the bidding is going to get a crazy. Also, I understand that Tomas will be the last player out of Cuba that won't be subject to the international draft pool for quite some time. Lots of demand out there, lots of teams with money who can't spend it elsewhere.

It wouldn't shock me if Theo (because it fits his new profile of acquiring power bats) or Cashman (who could definitely use some young power on his team) did something crazy like 10 years/$100+M.

GMs dig the long ball.

 

[benhogan]

First, why is it either Tomas or Cespedes? They have a ton of money to spend. Second, Castillo's AAV is a little over 10 million a year. It's not that big of a risk. If you can get Tomas for a similar AAV I would argue it's much better to spread that risk out at moderate dollars. I mean, I'd rather sign Tomas and Castillo for a combined 20-22 million AAV than Hanley Ramirez at 24 AAV for his age 31-37 seasons. Third, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett are irrelevant. All of them got paid a higher AAV than either Castillo or Tomas will get, and two of them may have a higher AAV than Castillo and Tomas combined. In a pre-TV deals environment, no less, in the previous CBA. They just aren't comparable given the differences in AAV even before you adjust for inflation and how the market has changed.
 
As for the draft, we'll be lucky if whomever the team drafts is a regular by the time we are in the second half of either Castillo's deal or whatever deal Tomas signs. The draft pick has absolutely nothing to do with this.
 
We, as fans, need to get past our old conceptualizations of how money is spent in baseball. It's changing rapidly from season to season. The Red Sox are looking for ways to spend their money away from the traditional free agent market because the talent pool there has thinned out significantly and the production curve has shifted toward younger players as we've seen the game move away from greenies and the penalties for PED use have gotten stiffer. Your position may have made sense 5 years ago. It is outdated thinking today.

Excellent post, and tremendous point.
 
This needs to be discussed more, the lack of amphetamines is probably having a much greater effect on the day to day players (hitters) then we may realize.

 

[ivanvamp]

A few months ago, I was on the bandwagon big-time for signing Tomas.  Then the Sox traded for Cespedes and Craig, and signed Castillo, and Betts proved he could play big at the MLB level (well, it sure appears that way, anyway).  So they went from, really, zero offensive-capable OF to four of them (assuming Craig gets back to his normal level of production, which of course may not happen).  So whither Tomas?
 
I still say:  sign him.  Acquire talent.  As much as possible.  I know the cost doesn't really "fit" by adding him.  But he has a ton of talent, very high ceiling.  And this is one place the Sox can go add talent that most other teams may have trouble matching.  Stash him in the minors for a year, which gives you time to sort everything else out.  The guy has major power and the Sox sure could use that.  He instantly becomes a top, top "prospect".  
 
Sign Lester.
Trade for Beltre.
Sign Tomas.  Put in AAA.
Starting OF:  Betts, Castillo, Cespedes.
Craig backs up OF and 1b - gets 350 or so AB that way.
 
 
Lineup:
LF Betts
2b Pedroia
DH Ortiz
3b Beltre
RF Cespedes
1b Napoli
SS Bogaerts
CF Castillo
C Vazquez
 
Suddenly, that team has a lot of thunder and some dynamic speed (Betts/Castillo).  Very RH-heavy, but oh well.  
 
Craig, Holt, veteran C lead the bench brigade.
 
Rotation:  Lester, Buchholz, RDLR, Kelly, Ranaudo
Bullpen:  Webster, Workman, Layne, Tazawa, Mujica, Uehara  (could use another LHR)
 
Tons of prospects still heading north in 2015-16:  Owens, Barnes, Cecchini, Tomas, Johnson, Hembree, Swihart, Rodriguez, Escobar, etc.  (some will be gone after dealing for Beltre)

 

[arzjake]

A few months ago, I was on the bandwagon big-time for signing Tomas.  Then the Sox traded for Cespedes and Craig, and signed Castillo, and Betts proved he could play big at the MLB level (well, it sure appears that way, anyway).  So they went from, really, zero offensive-capable OF to four of them (assuming Craig gets back to his normal level of production, which of course may not happen).  So whither Tomas?
 
I still say:  sign him.  Acquire talent.  As much as possible.  I know the cost doesn't really "fit" by adding him.  But he has a ton of talent, very high ceiling.  And this is one place the Sox can go add talent that most other teams may have trouble matching.  Stash him in the minors for a year, which gives you time to sort everything else out.  The guy has major power and the Sox sure could use that.  He instantly becomes a top, top "prospect".  
 
Sign Lester.
Trade for Beltre.
Sign Tomas.  Put in AAA.
Starting OF:  Betts, Castillo, Cespedes.
Craig backs up OF and 1b - gets 350 or so AB that way.
 
 
Lineup:
LF Betts
2b Pedroia
DH Ortiz
3b Beltre
RF Cespedes
1b Napoli
SS Bogaerts
CF Castillo
C Vazquez
 
Suddenly, that team has a lot of thunder and some dynamic speed (Betts/Castillo).  Very RH-heavy, but oh well.  
 
Craig, Holt, veteran C lead the bench brigade.
 
Rotation:  Lester, Buchholz, RDLR, Kelly, Ranaudo
Bullpen:  Webster, Workman, Layne, Tazawa, Mujica, Uehara  (could use another LHR)
 
Tons of prospects still heading north in 2015-16:  Owens, Barnes, Cecchini, Tomas, Johnson, Hembree, Swihart, Rodriguez, Escobar, etc.  (some will be gone after dealing for Beltre)
 
 
Your going to need better SP..
Hamels? 

 

[pdub]

The team knew about Tomas before signing Castillo, right? I feel like they won't make a move because of that, otherwise it seems plausible that they would have put the $72M Castillo got towards signing Tomas. Unless they weren't/aren't 100% convinced that Tomas would/will be available?
 
EDIT: I also can't see us making a move when we have obvious holes in the rotation. In my mind we need to sign a #1 and #2 if we intend to even semi-seriously contend next season.

 

[jscola85]

The only concern I have with signing this guy is understanding whether he'd be amenable to at least a few months or a year in the minors.  It seems at his age and slightly worse production in the Cuban League (relative to Abreu/Cespedes/Puig), he needs some time to refine his approach and perhaps shorten his swing.  The Sox can't afford to just throw him out there and see if he can learn on the fly like Chicago did with Abreu; however, it sounded like from the Abreu discussions that the ability to play right away in the majors was a large factor in signing with the Pale Hose.  If that's a stipulation for Tomas, not sure where the Sox could squeeze him in for 2015 without a wholesale restructuring of the roster.

 

[ArgentinaSOXfan]

The Phillies have "legitimate interest" in Cuban defector and slugging outfielder Yasmani Tomas, who could command a deal of approximately $100 million, according to a report Wednesday night from Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.
 
The news is only further confirmation of the Phillies -- and the Red Sox, among other teams -- showing interest in a player Salisbury describes as a "corner outfielder with big power."
 
http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/09/17/yasmani-tomas-phillies-cuba-outfielder-interest